A large unmarried male population without prospects or responsibility is likely to create social unrest. Or you need to go to war to even out the demographics
Tyler Cowen (GMU economist) pointed out that the labour crunch could be solved in the short-run by increasing retirement age to 68.
That said, demographics are already proving to be a problem in countries in the West and East Asia that have hit that technology/education efficiency margin. Japan, USA, all of Europe, and Canada will see increasing labour crunches, tax burdens, and most likely, overall stagnation. This is a huge problem. Maybe the biggest one facing the developed economies.
China is desperate as they don't have close to the wealth levels that have been obtained other places, and have mostly relied on a cheap, renewable source of labour.
We were in China a couple of years ago on a tour and sailed into a city that our guide described as a small city. The population was three or four million.
I was out at a business dinner last night in Beijing when the news was received on someone's phone. There was much toasting and drinking that resulted.
I was out at a business dinner last night in Beijing when the news was received on someone's phone. There was much toasting and drinking that resulted.
And thus the miracle of life begins!
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The more powerful force driving many couples to have a single child nowadays is the cost of raising kids.
I don't believe that is remotely true. The poorest people who can't even take care of themselves have the most kids. It is my understanding that fertility rates are closely tired to education levels. The more time a women spends in school, the less time she's going to spend having babies.
There are short term labour issues relating to economies that need continued growth, but we also have a finite amount of resources on this planet.
I don't believe that is remotely true. The poorest people who can't even take care of themselves have the most kids. It is my understanding that fertility rates are closely tired to education levels. The more time a women spends in school, the less time she's going to spend having babies.
There are short term labour issues relating to economies that need continued growth, but we also have a finite amount of resources on this planet.
Quality over quantity.
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I don't believe that is remotely true. The poorest people who can't even take care of themselves have the most kids. It is my understanding that fertility rates are closely tired to education levels. The more time a women spends in school, the less time she's going to spend having babies.
There are short term labour issues relating to economies that need continued growth, but we also have a finite amount of resources on this planet.
Many couples here are already eligible to have two kids and choose not to because of the costs involved in raising one.
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likely not going to raise the population much as the cost of having a child in China is high and it takes a lot of effort to put a child through school there
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There have been some really really big problems with this program, but from a purely utilitarian stand point it has been a huge success, and would be really good to see India take similar action. I'm guessing that the change in policy will not have a huge impact on Chinas population in the long term. We will probably still see a sizable decline over the next few decades and then a gradual creep downwards like most western countries a generation from now.
I remember reading one debate about the One Child rule and its effect on the female population because people were chucking baby daughters down the well. One senior unnamed official argued against it, not from the provision that late term no choice abortions were barbaric, or murdering daughters was barbaric.
But that young men, in the absence of young woman, would flip the switch out of loneliness and become homosexuals, and that was bad for the state because ewww.
Funny enough, he did deal with that in The Bear and the Dragon, when they talked about the late term killing of babies.
But what I was talking about came with a quote from a un-name senior official that laid out that they were worried about rampant homo-sexuality springing up in the absence of suitable females.
(Oh and Bear and the Dragon was the last well written Tom Clancy novel, everything after that poo, and the new stuff where his names attached, double poo)
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Based on the stats I'm seeing China (at 1.7) already has a higher birthrate than Canada (at 1.6). When you factor in people choose not and can't have children, it's probably pretty close 2 two births per woman already:
