Sign Johnny to a long-term deal, further evaluate Monny on a short bridge

[CroFlames]

I didn't read through the thread, but you definitely lock up Mony as long as you can. Nevermind this bridge business.

He is the most important player on the team. A top tier first line center who plays 2 ways and puts up decent point totals. Has a deceivingly deadly shot and quick release and has already exhibited leadership qualities as a 20 and 21 year old. In my opinion, only a matter of time before he combines all this skills with a physical edge in his game and will truly be an exceptional player, I dare say elite.

This is a no brainer to sign him long term and ASAP. A bridge can lead to complications down the road.

[Super Nintendo Chalmers]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Bridging Monahan also buys the team time to pay all four of Monahan, Hudler, Bennett, and Gaudreau.

If there's a need to "buy time", isn't that where Bennett's contract comes in? Honestly, this sounds like a solution in search of a problem.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I didn't read through the thread, but you definitely lock up Mony as long as you can. Nevermind this bridge business.

He is the most important player on the team. A top tier first line center who plays 2 ways and puts up decent point totals. Has a deceivingly deadly shot and quick release and has already exhibited leadership qualities as a 20 and 21 year old. In my opinion, only a matter of time before he combines all this skills with a physical edge in his game and will truly be an exceptional player, I dare say elite.

In what world is Monahan a top tier first line center? He plays a first line role on this team, a team that hasn't had a true first line center since Nieuwendyk. Can you honestly say he was a better center last year than Langkow or Conroy (2002) at their peaks for us? No, you can say he put up nice numbers and he's only 20 year old. Guess what, that "he's only 20 years old" part is a way of brushing aside the fact that his game isn't as complete as people want to think. He's a young player with a ton of upside. That's exactly why you want to bridge him because if his development plateaus, he's not a #1 center and he's probably worth around 5.5 million a year. People laugh at the Ryan O'Reilly contract but right now ROR is a better hockey player than Monahan. And you can bet Monahan's agent is pushing for ROR money.

Here's what we know about Monahan:

- Right now, he's #3 on the penalty kill order. Stajan and Backlund play ahead of him.
- Right now, he's a weak possession player. He's not very dominant behind the net and he's the opposite of physical, when he gets a hit on the stat sheet it's usually more of a light shove. He's less physical than Dougie Hamilton, Kris Russell, Mikael Backlund, Matt Stajan.
- He's not (being used as) a go-to guy on the power play. Look at every true #1 Center in the NHL and they are a go-to-guy on the power play for their team. He's on the number one unit but how often does he set up to create something?
- He's not been especially good with faceoffs. 44.2% this year so far, 49.3% last year, 45.9% his rookie year.
- Right now, he has an excellent snap shot and wrist shot. By far one of the best in the league.
- He's a smart passer but his actual playmaking skills are still developing.

The list of true #1Cs is full of guys that are a full tier to four tiers ahead of him offensively as creators. Some of those guys might be "Old" but that doesn't make them "Worse":

Malkin
Crosby
Tavares
Getzlaf
Seguin
Datsyuk
Thornton
H. Sedin
Giroux
Kopitar
Carter
Toews
Krejci
Stamkos
Johnson
Zetterberg
Bergeron
Statsny
Backes
Backstrom
Johansen
Spezza

Off the top of my head. Which of these players is not a clear upgrade on Monahan right now?

There is a ton of room to grow for the Monny and that's not an indictment on his talent. He's not a #1 Center right now just because he plays on a #1 line just like Malkin is not a #2 Center right now just because he plays on a #2 line.

What tier is Monahan in right now? I'm thinking:

Pavelski
Kuznetsov
McDavid
Eichel
(Matthews.. poor guy's a day too young)
MacKinnon
Barkov
Monahan
Turris
Dubinsky
Stepan
Brassard
Little
Kesler
Plekanec
Galchenyuk
Couture
Nugent-Hopkins
Scheifele
O'Reilly
Kadri
Duchene
Ribiero
Lehtera

No shame in that at Age 21 but guys who are #2 Centers or have #1 Center potential. And in my opinion, the guys I've got ahead of Monahan on that list, are either better than Monahan now, or younger and can be better than Monahan in the future.

If you're paying Monahan that kind of money (~5.75 to 6.25M a year) I can live with it. But you're probably not paying Gaudreau that kind of money, he's easily looking at a Tarasenko contract (7.5M a year) by the end of the season.

Originally Posted by Super Nintendo Chalmers

If there's a need to "buy time", isn't that where Bennett's contract comes in? Honestly, this sounds like a solution in search of a problem.

In 2016 we still have Bollig, Smid, Engelland, Raymond, Wideman under contract eating up 15.85 million so we're in tight to keep all three of Hudler, Monahan, and Gaudreau. Hudler is looking more and more like an odd-man out due to the cap.

In 2017 we only have Stajan left from the bunch of vets that we don't need. We can officially start the new era replacing those vets with the likes of Hathaway, Sieloff, Kulak, Hickey, Culkin, Wotherspoon, Granlund, Klimchuk, Poirier, Andersson, Arnold etc. As long as Treliving doesn't make a dumb trade or free agent signing, we'll have space to keep Sam, unless one of Monahan or Sam establishes himself as a clear #1 Center deserving of true #1 center money. Which will be a good thing for the franchise and we can do whatever it takes (Including move Stajan/Backlund/Bouma)

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

In what world is Monahan a top tier first line center? He plays a first line role on this team, a team that hasn't had a true first line center since Nieuwendyk. Can you honestly say he was a better center last year than Langkow or Conroy (2002) at their peaks for us? No, you can say he put up nice numbers and he's only 20 year old. Guess what, that "he's only 20 years old" part is a way of brushing aside the fact that his game isn't as complete as people want to think. He's a young player with a ton of upside. That's exactly why you want to bridge him because if his development plateaus, he's not a #1 center and he's probably worth around 5.5 million a year. People laugh at the Ryan O'Reilly contract but right now ROR is a better hockey player than Monahan. And you can bet Monahan's agent is pushing for ROR money.

Here's what we know about Monahan:

- Right now, he's #3 on the penalty kill order. Stajan and Backlund play ahead of him.
- Right now, he's a weak possession player. He's not very dominant behind the net and he's the opposite of physical, when he gets a hit on the stat sheet it's usually more of a light shove. He's less physical than Dougie Hamilton, Kris Russell, Mikael Backlund, Matt Stajan.
- He's not (being used as) a go-to guy on the power play. Look at every true #1 Center in the NHL and they are a go-to-guy on the power play for their team. He's on the number one unit but how often does he set up to create something?
- He's not been especially good with faceoffs. 44.2% this year so far, 49.3% last year, 45.9% his rookie year.
- Right now, he has an excellent snap shot and wrist shot. By far one of the best in the league.
- He's a smart passer but his actual playmaking skills are still developing.

The list of true #1Cs is full of guys that are a full tier to four tiers ahead of him offensively as creators. Some of those guys might be "Old" but that doesn't make them "Worse":

Malkin
Crosby
Tavares
Getzlaf
Seguin
Datsyuk
Thornton
H. Sedin
Giroux
Kopitar
Carter
Toews
Krejci
Stamkos
Johnson
Zetterberg
Bergeron
Statsny
Backes
Backstrom
Johansen
Spezza

Off the top of my head. Which of these players is not a clear upgrade on Monahan right now?

There is a ton of room to grow for the Monny and that's not an indictment on his talent. He's not a #1 Center right now just because he plays on a #1 line just like Malkin is not a #2 Center right now just because he plays on a #2 line.

What tier is Monahan in right now? I'm thinking:

Pavelski
Kuznetsov
McDavid
Eichel
(Matthews.. poor guy's a day too young)
MacKinnon
Barkov
Monahan
Turris
Dubinsky
Stepan
Brassard
Little
Kesler
Plekanec
Galchenyuk
Couture
Nugent-Hopkins
Scheifele
O'Reilly
Kadri
Duchene
Ribiero
Lehtera

No shame in that at Age 21 but guys who are #2 Centers or have #1 Center potential. And in my opinion, the guys I've got ahead of Monahan on that list, are either better than Monahan now, or younger and can be better than Monahan in the future.

If you're paying Monahan that kind of money (~5.75 to 6.25M a year) I can live with it. But you're probably not paying Gaudreau that kind of money, he's easily looking at a Tarasenko contract (7.5M a year) by the end of the season.



In 2016 we still have Bollig, Smid, Engelland, Raymond, Wideman under contract eating up 15.85 million so we're in tight to keep all three of Hudler, Monahan, and Gaudreau. Hudler is looking more and more like an odd-man out due to the cap.

In 2017 we only have Stajan left from the bunch of vets that we don't need. We can officially start the new era replacing those vets with the likes of Hathaway, Sieloff, Kulak, Hickey, Culkin, Wotherspoon, Granlund, Klimchuk, Poirier, Andersson, Arnold etc. As long as Treliving doesn't make a dumb trade or free agent signing, we'll have space to keep Sam, unless one of Monahan or Sam establishes himself as a clear #1 Center deserving of true #1 center money. Which will be a good thing for the franchise and we can do whatever it takes (Including move Stajan/Backlund/Bouma)

Monahan is certainly a number 1 center. Do number 2 centers finish top 5 in Byng voting? 20th in Selke voting? Monahan plays a very strong two-way game, exhibits leadership and has a heavy and quick shot. His skating is very good, his vision is excellent. Having a faceoff percentage hover around 50% is a good statistic. He makes smart plays along the boards, he doesn't need to be overly physical.

Calgary was a bad possession team all around last year, so you can't realistically say Monahan is a "bad possession player".

This year, not only do the Flames have a hard time posessing the puck, but they are bad in all areas. 44% in the circle is certainly not good enough, but this is a bad start so far for him and for the team. That doesn't mean he's not a #1C.

It's funny you add Getzlaf to the list of top tier centers, yet what has he done this year? If you are going off historical performance, then you have to take into account Mony's excellent 2nd year and conclude he is also a #1C who is having a bad start this year.

I legitimately doubt you write this post if the Flames were .500 and Mony was a plus player.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Monahan is certainly a number 1 center. Do number 2 centers finish top 5 in Byng voting?

Byng? really? It's an award that goes to the players who have the most points divided by PIM.

Look at votes 5 through 9:

5. Sean Monahan, CGY 232
6. Jason Pominville, MIN 205
7. Matt Moulson, BUF 150
8. Logan Couture, SJS 148
9. Ryan O'Reilly, COL 139

20th in Selke voting?

You mean one first place vote (probably a homer vote), and a 3rd, 4th, 5th place vote?

Which of the following are #1 Centers in your opinion?:

Joe Pavelski
Tomas Plekanec
Mikko Koivu
Derek Stepan
Zach Parise
Ryan O'Reilly
Carl Hagelin
Daniel Winnik

?

Monahan plays a very strong two-way game,

No, he doesn't. He plays a solid two-way game for his age.

exhibits leadership

...Matt Stajan and Deryk Engelland "exhibit leadership" too. It's nice he's an alternate captain, but so is Taylor Hall.

Having a faceoff percentage hover around 50% is a good statistic.

Well, no, it's a slightly-below average statistic.
Unsurprisingly, an exactly 50% faceoff percentage is... average.
Having a faceoff percentage hover around 55-60% is a good stastistic.
And no, 49% as a "#1 center" is not different from 50% as a Yelle type #3.

Calgary was a bad possession team all around last year, so you can't realistically say Monahan is a "bad possession player".

Monahan is a weak possession player relative to centers on his own team, like Backlund.

It's funny you add Getzlaf to the list of top tier centers, yet what has he done this year? If you are going off historical performance, then you have to take into account Mony's excellent 2nd year and conclude he is also a #1C who is having a bad start this year.

This year? Sample size much?

Getzlaf is and has been a go-to center who was 2nd in Hart voting like, just over a year ago. Hart. Not Lady Byng. You honestly believe Getzlaf and Monahan are remotely comparable? Wow.

I legitimately doubt you write this post if the Flames were .500 and Mony was a plus player.

Well you would be wrong. I'm not being fickle based on the start of the season, or the playoffs, or any small sample. My opinion is based on the two+ seasons he's been a Flame. He wasn't a #2 center his rookie year, he wasn't a #1 center last year, and he's not a #1 center right now. He could be a #1 Center but he's not one yet.

[CroFlames]

Do explain what threshold Monahan needs to get to be considered a #1C.

[adc]

I see Monahan as 1a and Gaudreau as 1b going forward so I don't see any reason why you are giving Gaudreau a long term deal and Monahan a bridge deal. If anything I would reverse it and give Gaudreau the bridge deal if you had to give one long term and one bridge deal.

Granteed has sure written a lot to supposedly back up his position but I haven't seen anything in this thread that changes my mind.

[polak]

I definitely think Gaudreau DESERVES a better deal. He's a far better player then Monahan at his respective role. I don't think you can give him much more than Monahan though.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Do explain what threshold Monahan needs to get to be considered a #1C.

You know it's subjective, but until you can confidently say Monahan is in the same rough tier as those players i listed above (from Malkin thru Spezza), you can't say he's a #1C. All of those players are better. Right now putting him in that tier is just being a homer, or Darryl Sutter who also said John Gibson is "the best goalie I’ve ever seen.".

Defensively, he can definitely improve. Just playing defensive minutes doesn't mean he's playing them exceptionally. Watch guys like Backes and ROR and they are tougher to play against than Monny. Statistically it'd be clear by hi being a better shot suppressor. His FA60 RelTM of +3.75 unblocked shot attempts is worst among all Flames centers (well, other than Drew Shore). Stajan's +0.70 and Backlund's -1.83 would be good starting points but ideally you want your #1 center to be your best shot suppressor because he's getting the most offensive starts and shouldn't be defending as much in the first place, plus because Hartley matches Backlund's line to other team's top lines so Monahan faces easier competition.

Offensively he's already taken a step forward from last year to this year in terms of carry-ins. But now he needs to translate that into successful plays because he's at a stage right now where Gaudreau was at last year where he'll enter the zone and then just toss the puck into traffic for a weak giveaway. He needs to create more behind the net too, we've seen bits and pieces of that game from him but nothing consistently dominant.

On the power play, he needs to be more dangerous outside of the slot area. Right now Monahan is only dangerous in the slot and in front of the crease. That's a narrow angle where teams have to guard him as an individual and it makes him easy-to-shadow. Him and Gaudreau have to be able to play some semblance of a cycle game where both players are a dual-thread to shoot or pass. Watch any top two-man combo on the PP - Toews-Kane, Getzlaf-Perry, Seguin-Benn, Crosby-Malkin, Sedin-Sedin, Giroux-Voracek, Thornton-Pavelski, etc and you'll know that Monahan isn't as varied a threat as true #1 centers are. He's option 3 on the power play after Hudler and Gaudreau.

[Daradon]

Gaudreau may be more flashy, and put up more points, but I don't think Monahan is any further behind in his development. He's an all around guy, and probably deserves just as much. Also remember, finding a solid center is harder than finding a great winger, so Monahan's value would be higher anyway even if he was a step behind.

Could Monahan get better? Of course, but I think Gaudreau has another level too. Remember, they're both only 2 years in and 1 year in respectively. Of course they're going to be behind a lot of those players you named, especially at center because that takes longer to develop properly.

I see them getting similar deals.

[Crumpy-Gunt]

Monahan is the most overrated player on this forum. We were so starved for a prospect that a 20 and 30 goal season back to back from a rookie who broke out and stuck around at 18 means we have an elite center

Let's go back to his rookie season. I personally have never seen a more sheltered player. Offensive zone starts top pairing behind him etc etc. it's not like the kid took on our toughest matchups and still scored 20 in his rookie season. He was put in the easiest lowest stress situations.

Last season he played well but I feel he rode the coat tails of Hudler Gaudreau gio and Brodie.

I'm not saying he's bad but he probably isn't as good as most here think. He's an average skater who throws less checks than Gaudreau. He isn't physical he isn't someone who can drive a line or produce offense on his own, he is a finisher.

I don't think he has an amazing 2 way game. He has decent positioning and a good 2 way game for his age group among that position. To me he is a 2nd line center on a team good enough to contend for a decade.

I also believe Gaudreau deserves a bigger contract. It's a no brainer to me. One is a top 10 player in his position. The other is as EV mentioned in a lower tier of younger players and still not atop that tier.

We don't have that elite number one center. Yet. Maybe Monahan will become that. Maybe Bennett. Maybe someone else. But right now we have a 3rd year center who has scored a lot of opportune goals playing with 2 elite playmakers and the best d pairing in the NHL.

If people believe mony is an elite center in this league right now I wonder how they would feel if malkin played for us. What would he be if mony is a elite center. Maybe we would call malkin God incarnate as a hockey player from Russia.

I find it telling that people are ready to trade Hamilton but don't make much of Monahans super slow start to the season. Also he got embarrassed by Kesler during the Anaheim series. You want to know why mony isn't an elite center you go back and watch that series.

Maybe he could become one. I hope so. But he isn't one now. Don't kid yourselves

[Vinny01]

Monahan is certainly a budding number 1 centre. Not too many guys are doing what he has done at 21 (just turned 21). Most guys in his position (Mackinnon, Galchenyuk, Bennett) have to be started at the wing for 2-3 years before they try center.

The list of players that scored 30 goals prior to turning 21 is small but distinguished. Darryl Sutter said last year that Monahan is pushing his way into the Toews, Kopitar discussion obviously he is not there yet. He has proven more than Gaudreau so far in his career and I think both deserve long term deals

[Vinny01]

So Johnny who scored 2 more points last year playing sheltered minutes is far better than Monahan who played shutdown minutes with Glencross and Jones for half the year.

Both guys deserve big money long term deals.

[adc]

Originally Posted by Crumpy-Gunt

I also believe Gaudreau deserves a bigger contract. It's a no brainer to me. One is a top 10 player in his position. The other is as EV mentioned in a lower tier of younger players and still not atop that tier.

Who cares if one is a top 10 player at their position. All that means is that there are better Centers in the league than there are wingers.

And there is no way that Hudler is an elite playmaker. He had a great year last year but he has had way to many ok years prior to that to be considered elite. Perhaps it was him benefitting from having Monahan as a finisher on his line that allowed him to piggy back off Monahan and put up his best offensive year by far.

[Weitz]

What ever happened to the don't build a team around a winger I used to read around here all the time?

Monahan is the guy you want long term.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Weitz

What ever happened to the don't build a team around a winger I used to read around here all the time?

You build around a clear-cut #1 center, preferably two of them.

The clear-cut #1 part being the part I am disputing WRT monahan, not the center part. Monahan is a center. We don't know how effective he will be in his prime.

[PantherExtreme]

Monahan showed last year he has elite finish from anywhere in the slot. He is a goal scorer for sure.

Gaudreau (and Hudler when hes on) are in the drivers seat from my viewings this year and last.

Apart from finish Monahan is servicable as a 1C/good 2C at this point. He does not do the things that other top Cs in the game are doing driving possession and distributing/playmaking. I think its fair to ask if they were on separate teams would they command the same contract? Monahans position is more important and he can always keep improving.

[jemjey]

Your distinction between "#1" and "#2" centers seems pretty arbitrary. I think a lot of people would consider the guys you put in your second list as #1 centers. I know i personally think pavelski is a top tier #1 center and he's probably better than spezza.

[FanIn80]

All I know is, when you google the name "Johnny," the first three results are: "Cash," "Depp" and "Gaudreau."

And that's good enough for me.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

All I know is, when you google the name "Johnny," the first three results are: "Cash," "Depp" and "Gaudreau."

And that's good enough for me.

For me it's Depp, Cash, Manziel & Galecki whoever the hell that is.

Looks like Gaudreau is trash. Waive him.