2006 Blue Jays Thread

[habernac]

just read a report that said Halladay was pretty tired after the 7th so I can't fault Gibson. $#%&@ bullpen....

[Flickered Flame]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

"It's going to be really tough to catch these guys if we stay at a $70-million payroll. It doesn't mean we can't be good, we can't compete. I just don't think you're going to see a chance to win 95, 100 games," the Blue Jays general manager told the Sun. "It's not sour grapes, or anything. It's just the reality. We'll be competitive, but up to a point."

I'm sure the players love that quote, even if it may be true. Basically if they don't get an increase in the payroll next season they're expected to miss the playoffs?

Wow, what a confidence builder!

I really think this is a stupid thing for Riccardi to say.

I guess Rogers announced yesturday that they increase the payroll. By how much? I didn't hear.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Flickered Flame

I guess Rogers announced yesturday that they increase the payroll. By how much? I didn't hear.

No dollar figures, but it is being speculated to be 100 million (Jeff Blair), although its been tight lipped.

At least they are giving JP enough rope to hang himself with. I think he has not done a good job at all managing this team.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

No dollar figures, but it is being speculated to be 100 million (Jeff Blair), although its been tight lipped.

At least they are giving JP enough rope to hang himself with. I think he has not done a good job at all managing this team.

I'm not sure I agree. His draft record still remains to be evaluated but most of the moves he made last off-season were good.

- The Overbay Deal: looks great
- Troy Glaus: Has given the Jays a legitimate cleanup hitter and protection behind VW.
- BJ Ryan: Not as good in the 2nd half but still one of the top closers in the AL
- AJ Burnett: Overall doesn't look great but if he can remain healthy and pitch as he's done as of late he will be a good #2 for the next 4 years.
- Molina: Bad signing in retrospetive but only a 1 year thing so not disastorous.

My only beef with JP is he shoots from the hip a little too much. His comments clamming the 3-4-5 hitters in the mid-season did not help. He needs to realize what his role is as the GM and only speak on the matters. Leave those other type of comments to Gibbons.

[HitterD]

I wonder if this payroll increase would give the Jays enough to re-sign VW?

I expect he will be asking for 12-15mil/year (no home-town discounts for TO i'm afraid!) I'd hate to see VW walk for nothing like Delgado, so maybe a trade should happen instead, but with extra payroll, i'd like to see him resigned long-term

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by HitterD

I wonder if this payroll increase would give the Jays enough to re-sign VW?

I expect he will be asking for 12-15mil/year (no home-town discounts for TO i'm afraid!) I'd hate to see VW walk for nothing like Delgado, so maybe a trade should happen instead, but with extra payroll, i'd like to see him resigned long-term

The question is less, what kind of dollars is he looking for - you pay him whatever he wants. And more does he have any interest in coming back. So far he has yet to even say "yes I want to stay in Toronto if the situation is right" or the usual comment that players make. He's been completely quiet on the subject which leads me to believe he plans on walking.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I'm not sure I agree. His draft record still remains to be evaluated but most of the moves he made last off-season were good.

- The Overbay Deal: looks great
- Troy Glaus: Has given the Jays a legitimate cleanup hitter and protection behind VW.
- BJ Ryan: Not as good in the 2nd half but still one of the top closers in the AL
- AJ Burnett: Overall doesn't look great but if he can remain healthy and pitch as he's done as of late he will be a good #2 for the next 4 years.
- Molina: Bad signing in retrospetive but only a 1 year thing so not disastorous.

My only beef with JP is he shoots from the hip a little too much. His comments clamming the 3-4-5 hitters in the mid-season did not help. He needs to realize what his role is as the GM and only speak on the matters. Leave those other type of comments to Gibbons.

Molina deal was awful considering the fact it was a rolling payroll.

Now the BJ Ryan signing is something I disagree with. It simply is not worth it for the amoumt of money for a closer who is paid 10 million to come in and save games. Not with our payroll. Much more effecient to have say League who wont be as good as BJ and another 10 million dollar, healthy starter.

The drafting is something I strongly disagree with. He drafts a lot of low ceiling college players and he also drafts a lot based on signability, not BPA. Romero over Mike Pelfrey - 1 million dollars signing bonus extra for Pelfrey, now one is in the majors who has a 99MPH fastball, the other is still toiling in AAA, lucky to get a sept call up by next season.

Favoring quantity over quality. In fact of any team in the majors, we took the most college players of ANY team. In fact our farm system is ranked to be one of the lowest in the majors (by places such as baseball america), for producing both impact players and quality ML talent. There is no Roy Halladay in our system like there was for JP left over from Gord Ash. No Vernon Wells.

Now, Travis Snider appears to be the real deal, what do you know, the first HS player taken by JP in the first round in his entire tenure. Of course its early.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

The question is less, what kind of dollars is he looking for - you pay him whatever he wants. And more does he have any interest in coming back. So far he has yet to even say "yes I want to stay in Toronto if the situation is right" or the usual comment that players make. He's been completely quiet on the subject which leads me to believe he plans on walking.

No, he is simply not worth it on our budget to keep a Vernon Wells type of player. He already turned down 4/52. We also have 2 players who make a lot less who can play CF too. Rios and Johnson. A lot easier to fill the power numbers left by their void in the corners.

It is better to have 3 above average type of players around the Diamond, like a Lyle Overbay type than 1 Vernon Wells.

[RedHot25]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Favoring quantity over quality. In fact of any team in the majors, we took the most college players of ANY team. In fact our farm system is ranked to be one of the lowest in the majors (by places such as baseball america), for producing both impact players and quality ML talent. There is no Roy Halladay in our system like there was for JP left over from Gord Ash. No Vernon Wells.

Now, Travis Snider appears to be the real deal, what do you know, the first HS player taken by JP in the first round in his entire tenure. Of course its early.

Don't forget about Adam Lind, who is turning out to be a potential impact player. I believe Baseball America ranked him as our #1 prospect.

Cheers.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Molina deal was awful considering the fact it was a rolling payroll.

Now the BJ Ryan signing is something I disagree with. It simply is not worth it for the amoumt of money for a closer who is paid 10 million to come in and save games. Not with our payroll. Much more effecient to have say League who wont be as good as BJ and another 10 million dollar, healthy starter.

I guess it's a difference of how one thinks one should build a club. I think a closer is an absolute necessity. You need a guy to close out the wins...particularly when your two division rivals have high end closers as well. If not having a closer costs you say...an additional 8 wins a season...that's going to take you out of the race altogether.

[Sylvanfan]

So if Wells won't committ and the Jays need to look to trade him we all know the Texas Rangers are a likely suitor. So what do you want back to make the deal work. Would something like Gary Matthews Jr and a couple prospects do the trick? Matthews can hit a bit and can play good defence, and you have payroll room to add a proper short stop, and pitcher, plus get a couple prospects. Or do you try for more right now help?

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

I guess it's a difference of how one thinks one should build a club. I think a closer is an absolute necessity. You need a guy to close out the wins...particularly when your two division rivals have high end closers as well. If not having a closer costs you say...an additional 8 wins a season...that's going to take you out of the race altogether.

Really? Do you think it is that much?

BJ Ryan has blown 4 Saves this season. On pace to blow 6.

Miguel Batista, whom most of us were scared when he came into the game, blew 8 last season. Now I know the blown save stat isn't the perfect measure of a closer, but crediting BJ Ryan w/ 8 wins extra over League is... well completely false.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

Don't forget about Adam Lind, who is turning out to be a potential impact player. I believe Baseball America ranked him as our #1 prospect.

Cheers.

He will likely be an above average player. Doesn't change the fact our prospect system is barren compared to a lot of other organizations.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

Really? Do you think it is that much?

BJ Ryan has blown 4 Saves this season. On pace to blow 6.

Miguel Batista, whom most of us were scared when he came into the game, blew 8 last season. Now I know the blown save stat isn't the perfect measure of a closer, but crediting BJ Ryan w/ 8 wins extra over League is... well completely false.

Depends on what your position is. If its having Ryan instead of someone like Batista the number is closer to 5 wins most likely. If you are suggesting though as I understood your post that you use a kid like League, I think its legitimate to suggest it would cost you around 8 wins. Of course no one knows...perhaps League would excel in the closer role, but I don't think so...at least not yet.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

So if Wells won't committ and the Jays need to look to trade him we all know the Texas Rangers are a likely suitor. So what do you want back to make the deal work. Would something like Gary Matthews Jr and a couple prospects do the trick? Matthews can hit a bit and can play good defence, and you have payroll room to add a proper short stop, and pitcher, plus get a couple prospects. Or do you try for more right now help?

I think you trade for pitching. The Tigers were considering dealing Bonderman, who is their 4th starter, however has extremely good peripherals and has improved each year in the league (4th season). As well, he is only 23.

They want another bat, and he'd be under contract for 2 more seasons. Could possibly have a high 3's ERA next year.

I'm of the firm belief that Starting pitching is the key to sucess in this League. This team needs 2 very good starters, possibly with #2 potential and consistantancy to compete.

IF we were able to get Bonderman and sign someone like Jason Schmidt, as well as supplement the loss of Wells by picking up a good SS (say Lugo), the net cost of that would probably be 18 million. That gives us a consistant starting staff (vastly improved), and an offense which might not be as potent as this seasons, but extremely capable. If the payroll is bumped up as much as we think it could be. This could very well be a reality and this definately would be a playoff squad.

As for Wells/Bonderman swap, I think they might have to throw in a little more + Bonderman, but I think it would still be a move forward.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Depends on what your position is. If its having Ryan instead of someone like Batista the number is closer to 5 wins most likely. If you are suggesting though as I understood your post that you use a kid like League, I think its legitimate to suggest it would cost you around 8 wins. Of course no one knows...perhaps League would excel in the closer role, but I don't think so...at least not yet.

There is little doubt in my mind League or even Jason Frasor would have been a better choice than Batista. Arguably one of the worst closers last season. Jason Frasor, after a brutal month of April has put up extremely respectable numbers, but hasn't been used for unknown reasons. That high ERA apparently follows you around for a while in this organization.

5 Wins? Doubtful. Maybe the difference between 3-4 wins. Not unless Brandon League starts tossing fire on every save going forward.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

There is little doubt in my mind League or even Jason Frasor would have been a better choice than Batista. Arguably one of the worst closers last season. Jason Frasor, after a brutal month of April has put up extremely respectable numbers, but hasn't been used for unknown reasons. That high ERA apparently follows you around for a while in this organization.

5 Wins? Doubtful. Maybe the difference between 3-4 wins. Not unless Brandon League starts tossing fire on every save going forward.

If the difference is that slim that why is it then virtually every pennant winner has a legitimate closer? I think you are undrstating the impact of the closer.

[CaramonLS]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

If the difference is that slim that why is it then virtually every pennant winner has a legitimate closer? I think you are undrstating the impact of the closer.

WS winning White Sox had Bobby Jenks, taken off the scrap heap as their closer. The Atlanta Braves (last season) didn't have a bullpen. There is 2/8 who made the playoffs last season. The others had assloads of cash.

This season, the best team in MLB doesn't have a good closer!

The reason those teams have closers is because they can afford them. They are also the teams with the highest payrolls in all of MLB. They can afford Mo Rivera.

I'd love to make it so we never blow another game, but that 10 million dollars is better spent on a starter who can give you 7 innings every 5th day and give you a chance to win in our current situation. Especially when you have a contingency plan who can do a cost effective job for you, and really, will not impact nearly as much as you think.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by CaramonLS

WS winning White Sox had Bobby Jenks, taken off the scrap heap as their closer. The Atlanta Braves (last season) didn't have a bullpen. There is 2/8 who made the playoffs last season. The others had assloads of cash.

This season, the best team in MLB doesn't have a good closer!

The reason those teams have closers is because they can afford them. They are also the teams with the highest payrolls in all of MLB. They can afford Mo Rivera.

I'd love to make it so we never blow another game, but that 10 million dollars is better spent on a starter who can give you 7 innings every 5th day and give you a chance to win in our current situation. Especially when you have a contingency plan who can do a cost effective job for you, and really, will not impact nearly as much as you think.

OK but Jenks is still a legitimate closer. He may have been taken off the heap but he does the job. The Jays tried that for years trying out guys like Darryl Hall, Aquino Lopez, Jason Frasor, Cliff Politte and so on, hoping one of them could step into the role and it never happened.

We will probably have to agree to disagree.

[calculoso]

I agree for sure that the back end (read: Setup / Closer) has to be strong, as does the front end (Starting Pitching).

If the Starting pitcher only has to go 7 innings, with the Setup man and Closer taking the last two innings, then that's extra rest and longevity for the starting pitcher. I really think it takes a toll on pitchers to pitch complete games all the time, as Halladay had to do 2 seasons ago. The next season, he was injured a lot (although the leg thing was a pure fluke). Not stretching out the starting pitchers so much has a very positive impact on the whole season.