Federal Election Polling Thread

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Ipsos: 37% lpc, 31% cpc, 24% ndp

Link?... I like to look at the regionals.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Ipsos: 37% lpc, 31% cpc, 24% ndp

Link?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Three seats for the Greens. Is that possible even if everything goes their way? Most I heard they had a shot at was 2 in BC... is there a 3rd they could take?

I can't remember but I think they have a shot at a seat in Ontario as well.

[PeteMoss]

I just got them from here- http://globalnews.ca/news/2273978/li...st-ipsos-poll/

Nothing from IPSOS yet.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Those Green numbers seem a lot higher than they've typically been during the campaign.

I agree that Greens at 7.5 seems higher than one would expect. However, one plausible explanation that comes to mind is that there were a significant number of green voters who were willing to vote NDP when it seemed like they might form government or opposition; but now that they've dropped back into a solid third place, those voters are going to return to the greens.

In regards to the greens having a shot at 3 seats, there's nowhere east of the continental divide where they're being given better than about 13% on 308. Other than Victoria and Saanich, Esquimalt and Nanaimo seem like the next likely to go green (both projecting around 20%).

EDIT: I'm wrong about that first point; looking back at EKOS' history, I think Marchhare is right, their methodology must just be pretty green-favorable, they've done well going back to before the NDP slide started.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I just got them from here

Looks like the big differences from Ekos is BC (where they see the LPC with a sizable lead) & Quebec (Where they have the NDP in third... which I'm not sure I buy). Also much less support for the Greens.

[DoubleK]

Dumb question: Is funding determined by seats or % of popular vote?

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Dumb question: Is funding determined by seats or % of popular vote?

Neither anymore. The law was changed to eliminate subsidies (which were per vote)

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Same Poll New Day

Lib - 35.7 (+ 0.6)
Con - 28.9 (- 0.1)
NDP - 24.3 (- 0.7)
Bloc - 5.7 (+ 0.5)
Green - 4.8 (- 0.3)

Up to a 7 point lead now with a week remaining. The Liberals have all the momentum at this point.

Nanos skipped Thanksgiving, so there's a new poll today

Lib - 36.1 (+ 0.4)
Con - 29.2 (+ 0.3)
NDP - 24.5 (+ 0.2)
Bloc - 5.2 (- 0.5)
Green - 4.5 (- 0.5)

7 point lead holding steady. It is interesting to note that at this point in 2011, Nanos had the Conservatives at 36.6 and they ended up spiking up to 39.6, taking the majority.

It will be interesting to see how the next couple days play out. If the Liberals start spiking, a majority might be in reach. At this point I don't see how they finish with fewer than 145-150 seats, they need 170 for the majority.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I can't remember but I think they have a shot at a seat in Ontario as well.

They already have an pretty strong incumbent Green MP in Bruce Hyer of Thunder Bay Superior (https://www.facebook.com/brucehyer?fref=ts). He crossed the isle to the Greens a year and a half ago. So it's fairly plausible that if the NDP are bleeding voters and people start believing that the NDP have no chance at toppling Harper, that people will shift back to Greens in some regions. I could see Bruce Hyer getting re-elected as he was a NDP MP until switching over and is a fairly popular figure.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

It will be interesting to see how the next couple days play out. If the Liberals start spiking, a majority might be in reach. At this point I don't see how they finish with fewer than 145-150 seats, they need 170 for the majority.

If we assume the polls have been accurate, when the CPC moved into first place the ABC vote switched to Liberal. I don't know if that is soft LPC support and subject to change still. That 36 to 39% for the CPC last time around is probably indicative a couple things.
First - a poll is not a ballot box. Second - some party's/leaders do a good job of getting the vote out and others do not. The CPC generally does a good job of getting the vote out. I think Trudeau will get the vote out, and that coupled with a desire for change (which high advanced poll turnout are probably indicative of) means we are less likely to a discrepancy in actual CPC ballots compared to polling numbers this time.

308 has the LPC projection currently at 136 seats.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

If we assume the polls have been accurate, when the CPC moved into first place the ABC vote switched to Liberal. I don't know if that is soft LPC support and subject to change still. That 36 to 39% for the CPC last time around is probably indicative a couple things.
First - a poll is not a ballot box. Second - some party's/leaders do a good job of getting the vote out and others do not. The CPC generally does a good job of getting the vote out. I think Trudeau will get the vote out, and that coupled with a desire for change (which high advanced poll turnout are probably indicative of) means we are less likely to a discrepancy in actual CPC ballots compared to polling numbers this time.

308 has the LPC projection currently at 136 seats.

I agree. The Nanos poll started showing things breaking the conservatives way in the last few days up 2.4 % from where it was and it became +3% on the election day. It'll be interesting if the moderate conservatives and NDP voters that are softer supporters of those parties decide to vote Liberal to get a change. The right leaning Liberal voters all fled to the conservatives, similarly with the left and the NDP, last go around in the last few days. We will see if the inverse occurs again this time. It seems like all the polls have the Liberals breaking away at the moment.

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Nanos skipped Thanksgiving, so there's a new poll today

Lib - 36.1 (+ 0.4)
Con - 29.2 (+ 0.3)
NDP - 24.5 (+ 0.2)
Bloc - 5.2 (- 0.5)
Green - 4.5 (- 0.5)

New Day, New Poll

Lib - 37.1 (+ 1.0)
Con - 29.4 (+ 0.2)
NDP - 23.7 (- 0.8)
Bloc - 5.0 (- 0.2)
Green - 4.5 (NC)

Seems to be breaking towards the Liberals much like it did last time for the Conservatives. A majority is becoming more possible, where it looked like a pipe dream. If the NDP's support falls to 20 %, which could very well happen, then it may end up being a big day for the Liberals.

[Senator Clay Davis]

What's becoming very problematic for the CPC is the Liberals have opened up a 17% lead in Ontario. Still don't see anyone getting a majority but if that kind of lead holds up, it's certainly possible for the Liberals.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think that the un-decided and the late voters will deny anyone a majority.

I still see a tight minority either with the Cons or the Libs.

In any Minority situation, I very much doubt that we see a government that lasts full term.

One thing is for sure, If the NDP numbers are accurate, Mulcair is done, and the NDP might slip back to what they were, which is a looney generational 3rd party option.

If Harper loses this election, he's done on election night, and the Conservatives will begin a rebuild. Even if Harper wins a minority, this is his last election.

[Ducay]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

What's becoming very problematic for the CPC is the Liberals have opened up a 17% lead in Ontario. Still don't see anyone getting a majority but if that kind of lead holds up, it's certainly possible for the Liberals.

Certainly possible, but per 308 and the CBC tracker, even "best case" scenario for Libs is below a majority. CPC is well above majority at best case 187.

Problem with Liberals is growing poll numbers arn't winning them too many more seats given they're just reinforcing areas they were likely to win anyways.

Its all a crap shoot anyways, and I look forward to all this being done finally on Monday.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Certainly possible, but per 308 and the CBC tracker, even "best case" scenario for Libs is below a majority. CPC is well above majority at best case 187.

Problem with Liberals is growing poll numbers arn't winning them too many more seats given they're just reinforcing areas they were likely to win anyways.

Its all a crap shoot anyways, and I look forward to all this being done finally on Monday.

Yeah, I was pretty close to done with this election last week, and got my voting out of the way.

Way too long of a campaign, I don't understand how American's can do what basically amounts to multi year campaigns.

[Senator Clay Davis]

10 weeks is basically 1/8th the length of the American cycle (75-80 weeks, or about July one YEAR before the general) just for perspective. Imagine us being only 12.5% finished the cycle? But then again we don't get Herman Cain's and Donald Trump's to entertain the hell out of us either.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

10 weeks is basically 1/8th the length of the American cycle (75-80 weeks, or about July one YEAR before the general) just for perspective. Imagine us being only 12.5% finished the cycle? But then again we don't get Herman Cain's and Donald Trump's to entertain the hell out of us either.

Its funny, because initially the Trumps and the Cain's to me made things interesting, but I've already started to tune out their message because its just too much of an assault on the voter.

All that's happened is its made all of the candidates very unlikable, so I understand why people vote based on party lines instead of the candidates in the States, its the whole I'll plug my nose and keep on moving on mentality.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

One thing is for sure, If the NDP numbers are accurate, Mulcair is done, and the NDP might slip back to what they were, which is a looney generational 3rd party option.

We'll see, but I expect Mulclair to spin this as a victory, given that it'll still almost certainly be the second most seats that the NDP have ever won (likely by a wide margin), and he achieved that in his first election as leader. And given that his ratings tended to be very good, I think it would be hard for anyone to pin this on him personally; anti-harper sentiment is stronger than any party affiliation this time round, and their sky-high numbers in August and plummet in September have more to do with perceptions on how to best to defeat Harper than on Mulclair.
Most of the NDP party brass probably remember how difficult the years between Broadbent and Layton were. Mulclair may not be either of those men, but he's done far better for the party than McDonough or McLaughlin. In a potentially short government in which the NDP might have some ability to force an election when it best suits them, are they willing to risk going with a completely unknown leader?