Federal Election Polling Thread

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

If that # hits 38-39 for the Liberals, they could form a majority.

It really depends on where they're drawing support from. They need to start cleaning up in Ontario or grabbing seats in Quebec and BC or the popular vote won't matter.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It really depends on where they're drawing support from. They need to start cleaning up in Ontario or grabbing seats in Quebec and BC or the popular vote won't matter.

Yes but it would be almost impossible to poll at 38-39 nationally without doing one of those.

[PeteMoss]

Looks like they are tracking very close to the NDP in Quebec now. If Quebec ends up not voting one party across the board like they've done lately it will change a lot of things.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Daily Nanos:

LIB 35.3%
CPC 31%
NDP 24.3%

Conservatives are absolutely tanking in BC, where they've dropped 15 points since about September 27th. The Liberals have also opened up a 10 point lead in Ontario, and are within 5 points of the NDP in Quebec. If Canadians are actually punishing the CPC for the niqab debate, I'm going to be very impressed, but I'm still cautious.

The really important thing is the continued free fall of the NDP.
Assuming true, that is excellent news for Canada. A Liberal government is not a bad thing.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Looks like they are tracking very close to the NDP in Quebec now. If Quebec ends up not voting one party across the board like they've done lately it will change a lot of things.

Yes it would... but I don't think that'll be happening. The NDP will still take the Lion's share of seats. The CPC and the Bloc don't have the voter support to get more then a smattering of seats and the LPC vote is heavily concentrated in the Montreal area.

Nanos Three Day Rolling Poll: LPC - 35.6, CPC - 31.0, NDP - 22.8. The NDP had it's 10th straight day of decline nationally, and (as alluded to by Pete)now leads Quebec by a mere two points.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I would like to see if those Nanos numbers hold across more than a three-day period--I wonder if there is one day of really strong numbers for the Liberals, in which case their numbers should drop significantly when that day's data is taken out of the sample.

Oddly, Angus Reid and Forum (iirc) had the Liberals at 27-29% last week, so once again we have diverging narratives from different pollsters.

One thing that is always worth keeping in mind is that historically at least the CPC's vote has been more "efficient" in the sense of yielding more seats per vote. Combine that with the fact that many pollsters understate the CPC vote slightly, and I doubt the Grits would feel comfortable at 38%.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I think the Nanos numbers reflect that the ABC vote has now gotten behind the Liberals as they've clearly separated themselves as a more viable alternative than the NDP. What will be interesting to see is how the NDP reacts. At this point winning the election is out of the question, so do you go hard after Trudeau in the hopes of getting opposition status at best? Maybe but I think that might backfire and push more NDP support to Trudeau as I would guess NDP supporters are group that the most wants Harper gone and can live with Trudeau.

What clearly backfired though was the CPC "He's just not ready" ads. By artificially setting the bar so low for Trudeau, it made it very easy for him to appear "ready" relative to what the CPC was attempting to present, that he would be a disaster. And if fact he far exceeded that low bar to the point I think many are thinking "He's certainly no less ready than Harper was when he took over". That and the longer election cycle allowing Trudeau time to get momentum going. Not sure that happens in a shorter cycle.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

and I doubt the Grits would feel comfortable at 38%.

That would depend on other factors. I mean if a party is at 38% and the next party is at 36% then no they shouldn't be comfortable but if it's 38-30 then you can draw some comfort in at least the plurality (if not majority) of seats.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

That and the longer election cycle allowing Trudeau time to get momentum going. Not sure that happens in a shorter cycle.

I'm sure you are right, and it doesn't happen in a shorter cycle.
It looks to me like the campaign was three weeks too long for the CPC. I think a strong desire for change is still there. It looks like once the CPC was back on top of the polls, the soft NDP vote started moving to the LPC.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Parallex

That would depend on other factors. I mean if a party is at 38% and the next party is at 36% then no they shouldn't be comfortable but if it's 38-30 then you can draw some comfort in at least the plurality (if not majority) of seats.

It will be tough for the Liberals to get more seats than the Conservatives due to distribution unless they catch a wave. But they could take the popular vote which would be huge if/when they try to replace CPC in a minority situation.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by edslunch

It will be tough for the Liberals to get more seats than the Conservatives due to distribution unless they catch a wave. But they could take the popular vote which would be huge if/when they try to replace CPC in a minority situation.

This. If both they and the NDP refuse to support a Harper government, the GG would be very well within his mandate to ask the opposition if they can form a government instead of calling another election, were they to have a substantial lead in the popular vote.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by rubecube

This. If both they and the NDP refuse to support a Harper government, the GG would be very well within his mandate to ask the opposition if they can form a government instead of calling another election, were they to have a substantial lead in the popular vote.

Absolutely.
But this occurs after the CPC are defeated in a confidence vote.
No way Harper stands down without a fight if the CPC elect the most seats.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Absolutely.
But this occurs after the CPC are defeated in a confidence vote.
No way Harper stands down without a fight if the CPC elect the most seats.

Not to mention Harper is still ahead as the preferred choice for PM in all polls.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Not to mention Harper is still ahead as the preferred choice for PM in all polls.

Only by the margin of error. Harper and Mulcair on the downslide, Trudeau trending up.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Absolutely.
But this occurs after the CPC are defeated in a confidence vote.
No way Harper stands down without a fight if the CPC elect the most seats.

Right, but I kind of had the feeling that if the popular vote was close, the Libs and NDP would be less likely to bring down the government and risk being punished at the polls. If the Liberals have a substantial lead in the popular vote, I could see them going for the throat right away.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by edslunch

It will be tough for the Liberals to get more seats than the Conservatives due to distribution unless they catch a wave.

It's not that disproportionate... yes if the Liberals and Tories were basically tied in popular vote we'd be looking at a CPC minority but it's not like you'd need an overwhelming lead to make up the difference.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Right, but I kind of had the feeling that if the popular vote was close, the Libs and NDP would be less likely to bring down the government and risk being punished at the polls. If the Liberals have a substantial lead in the popular vote, I could see them going for the throat right away.

Yeah - I get what you are saying. And it probably makes sense of most levels. I just can't see it happening that way right after an election (given my limited understanding of the procedural process).
I see Harper trying his play first, then the GG possibly turning to the LPC after that. Obviously this delays actually governing, but I think it is the most likely way something like this occurring.
But just speculation, based on my limited understanding.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Not to mention Harper is still ahead as the preferred choice for PM in all polls.

These are the Conservatives "would consider" numbers across the various regions (ATL, QC, ON, Prairies, BC)

32.6 28.3 44.5 52.3 33.3

Compared to the Liberals:

67.4 39.7 58.5 45.1 55.2

And NDP:

44.0 41.8 44.3 38.8 46.8

And here is the "would not consider numbers:

CPC

63.9 57.7 52.6 43.1 61.5

LIB

27.7 49.1 36.6 47.6 41.2

NDP

49.5 39.7 51.1 55.1 46.8

It really looks to me that CPC's numbers are being inflated by their support in the prairies, and that's likely also the case with the "preferred PM" numbers.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Only by the margin of error. Harper and Mulcair on the downslide, Trudeau trending up.

Today's update:
Harper 31.1% -0.6
Trudeau 30.2% +0.8

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Only by the margin of error. Harper and Mulcair on the downslide, Trudeau trending up.

Todays numbers on that front...

31.1% said Harper, 30.2% said Trudeau, 20.7% said Mulcair, 5.4% said May, 2.3% said Duceppe and 10.4% were unsure.