[News] Flames begin contract negotiations with Russell

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

I like the idea of around 3.5M too. To me, he isn't a significantly different DMan from Anton Stralman, just with more dzone starts given our personnel (Stralman's contract is big at 4.5M for five years).

I would take Stralman (was a beast last season for the Lighting) over Russell and I don't want Russell being paid anywhere near what Stralman gets. $3.5 maybe over three years but I think he's getting a little overvalued here. You can't keep everyone and I don't know if Russell's a guy that you can't move on from.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Fire

Tread carefully Treliving, don't over commit on a #4 guy.

I would offer 4 years at 3.5 million.

While i love your propsal i'm not sure you can get a #4 guy for $3.5 million anymore. I don't know what the stats say on the average of #4 guys get paid, but in some of the last couple of July 1st deals it seemed closer to $4.5 - $5 million.

Hoping for a home town discount and a deal at $4.1 million per 3 years.

One things for sure, while our prospects on D look good going forward, some of them are going to have to step up big time by next year. Have to think to sign some of our UFA's and Rfa's that Wideman will be traded in the summer.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

If I had to pick one or the other I'd keep Russell over Wideman. I really like both but the 4 years age difference is pretty big, imo. Wideman already isn't the fastest skater in the world, 4 years from now he could look like he's skating in quicksand. Just hope Kulak and one or two other prospects keep developing well and can take a spot in the top 6 permanently.

[Vulcan]

The trend in the NHL is to pay your stars top money, leaving little room for middle sized contracts. I can't see paying a 4th, 5th or 6th defenceman $3 or $4M per. As some other middling NHL players are finding out, they either accept small contracts or they find themselves on the outside. Committing that kind of money for Russell would be a mistake in my eyes.

This also goes for Wideman if he wants to re-sign with us.

[sharkov]

Seeing what defencemen got in the summer, I'm not that optimistic that Russell will resign given our cap situation.

[Samonadreau]

4 x AAV of 3.25 . He'll take the hometown discount and knows this team will be hitting its peak during that term.

[EVERLAST]

Russell turned out a helluva lot better than if wed gotten Ference back.

The oil are about to take away his C

so glad we got Russell

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

He allowed more shots from the slot than almost any defenseman in the league least year. I'm not concerned about his passing. I'm concerned about his ability to get the puck back

And yet he led the team with a +18

Obviously, +/- is not the be all, end all stat. But neither is Corsi.

For all the people that whine about his advanced stats, I would like to hear one person make sense of his +18.

Again, he led the team.

Either he is the single luckiest player ever to lace up their skates, or there is something missing between the Corsi numbers and the +/-

Also, as someone else mentioned, he had good possession numbers in Columbus. Did he suddenly forget how to possess the puck and play the hockey? Or are there other things going on that maybe the Corsi numbers aren't catching?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And yet he led the team with a +18

Obviously, +/- is not the be all, end all stat. But neither is Corsi.

For all the people that whine about his advanced stats, I would like to hear one person make sense of his +18.

Again, he led the team.

Either he is the single luckiest player ever to lace up their skates, or there is something missing between the Corsi numbers and the +/-

Also, as someone else mentioned, he had good possession numbers in Columbus. Did he suddenly forget how to possess the puck and play the hockey? Or are there other things going on that maybe the Corsi numbers aren't catching?

Or, ignore Corsi? Almost no other defender allowed as many actual shots from the slot per game as he did.

Where did I mention Corsi?


Edit: and no, even if we're taking Corsi, he wouldn't have to be so lucky because he blocks so many shots and there team scores while he's on the ice

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Or, ignore Corsi? Almost no other defender allowed as many actual shots from the slot per game as he did.

Where did I mention Corsi?

I quoted you because I had to quote someone.

The argument against Russell is that he has terrible possession numbers.

Yet he was +18.

You said he gives up too many shots from the slot and can't get the puck back.

So where does the +18 come from?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Or, ignore Corsi? Almost no other defender allowed as many actual shots from the slot per game as he did.

Where did I mention Corsi?


Edit: and no, even if we're taking Corsi, he wouldn't have to be so lucky because he blocks so many shots and there team scores while he's on the ice

So you are saying he is lucky

The teams scores when he is on the ice.

Either he has a positive impact on that or he is lucky. Which do you think it is?

[mikephoen]

[QUOTE=Street Pharmacist;5443130]Or, ignore Corsi? Almost no other defender allowed as many actual shots from the slot per game as he did.

Where did I mention Corsi?


Edit: and no, even if we're taking Corsi, he wouldn't have to be so lucky because he blocks so many shots and there team scores while he's on the ice[/QUOTE]

Sometimes I think you advanced stat guys have completely lost the plot.

You do know the purpose of the game is to score more goals than the opponent, right? Are you seriously trying to use the fact that the Flames score more goals than the opposition while he is on the ice as a negative?

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I quoted you because I had to quote someone.

The argument against Russell is that he has terrible possession numbers.

Yet he was +18.

You said he gives up too many shots from the slot and can't get the puck back.

So where does the +18 come from?

Same place Daniel Winnik's +23 came from. Or Taylor Hall leading his team with a -1, or...

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

So you are saying he is lucky

The teams scores when he is on the ice.

Either he has a positive impact on that or he is lucky. Which do you think it is?

Yes. He was lucky. Plus minus has a lot of luck involved. This has been proven. That's my answer. He played on a pairing with Wideman who scored a ton.


If you cling to the +/- argument, would you say he went from the 31st best Flame with a -11 the year before and just "figured it out" last year? Or would you agree that maybe plus minus isn't a good way to evaluate his talent? Carl Soderberg had a +10 last year and Bergeron had a +2. Is Soderberg better?


Look. Russell isn't as awful as his advanced stats may say, but Calgary has 4 better defensemen than him IMO

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

Sometimes I think you advanced stat guys have completely lost the plot.

You do know the purpose of the game is to score more goals than the opponent, right? Are you seriously trying to use the fact that the Flames score more goals than the opposition while he is on the ice as a negative?

Yup, I understand the purpose of the game.

That's not at all what I said. Maybe we should've signed Clarkson before the Leafs did. Maybe we should have signed Daniel Winnik! He had a better plus minus than anyone on the Flames, he ought to be good!

Jesus Christ man. Reading comprehension

[Strange Brew]

This is a tough one for me. I really like Russell's game and he has been a warrior for me. I am just not sure that championship teams sign their #4 or #5 Dmen to long term contracts.

Think of the NE Patriots. They operate by the principle that you don't fall in love with your own players and better to release/trade a player a year too soon than a year too late.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Same place Daniel Winnik's +23 came from. Or Taylor Hall leading his team with a -1, or...

Yes. He was lucky. Plus minus has a lot of luck involved. This has been proven. That's my answer. He played on a pairing with Wideman who scored a ton.


If you cling to the +/- argument, would you say he went from the 31st best Flame with a -11 the year before and just "figured it out" last year? Or would you agree that maybe plus minus isn't a good way to evaluate his talent? Carl Soderberg had a +10 last year and Bergeron had a +2. Is Soderberg better?


Look. Russell isn't as awful as his advanced stats may say, but Calgary has 4 better defensemen than him IMO

You missed the point.

Of course+/- is a lousy stat. Why? Because with 5 guys on the ice for each team, there is a lot going on that is outside the control of the individual.

Guess what? Possession numbers have the exact same problem. That's the point.

Neither stat is anywhere close to being definitive.

And since the two completely contradict each other, IMO the sensible thing would be to back off from making conclusions from either.

You seem to disagree, and feel that you can continue to draw your conclusions from the possession numbers while dismissing the contradictory numbers as luck.

Knock yourself out, but I call that blind analysis.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You missed the point.

Of course+/- is a lousy stat. Why? Because with 5 guys on the ice for each team, there is a lot going on that is outside the control of the individual.

Guess what? Possession numbers have the exact same problem. That's the point.

Neither stat is anywhere close to being definitive.

And since the two completely contradict each other, IMO the sensible thing would be to back off from making conclusions from either.

You seem to disagree, and feel that you can continue to draw your conclusions from the possession numbers while dismissing the contradictory numbers as luck.

Knock yourself out, but I call that blind analysis.

One is repeatable year by year. One isn't. You started by asking me to explain his+/-, I did.

I'm not a believer that possession metrics tell the story. Not at all. They didn't last year for the Flames (though the Flames were lucky, not as lucky as possession metrics would suggest).

Russell got favorable zone starts and the puck still went the wrong way. He's never had a year like last year. He's a 5/6 on a good team 4/5 on a bubble and higher elsewhere.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

One is repeatable year by year. One isn't

1) bull#### - lots and lots of players have consistent +/- stats throughout their careers

2) look at his numbers in Columbus - his possession numbers haven't been consistent.

So, not much of a rebuttal there.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Of course+/- is a lousy stat. Why? Because with 5 guys on the ice for each team, there is a lot going on that is outside the control of the individual.

Guess what? Possession numbers have the exact same problem. That's the point.

well, no.

Because possession numbers have an inherently larger sample size, you can look at With-or-Without-You stats to see whether players positive or negatively influence possession.

I love Kris Russell, but I don't need possession stats to know that there are things about his game that cause him to get hemmed in defensively. Random icings, giving opponents too much space on zone entries, and struggles re-acquiring the puck on the cycle.

Am I saying that with the right partner and a clever coach you can't work around his shortcomings? No, in fact I think he can be a #4 on a cup winner - but I am saying that you have to consider his shortcomings along with his positive delivered results when looking at the future. We have guys pushing for spots with legitimate #4 upside. Hickey. Kylington. Andersson. Culkin. Wotherspoon. Kulak. Maybe they won't provide the exact combination of things that Russell does, but maybe what they provide can have the same net effect with respect to a cup.

it's not an easy decision but it's the kind you have to make in a cap world. Russell's struggles with possession don't make him a scrub, but they shed light on some limitations in his game that influence his value. Identify your core and periphery players. The Hawks have done it with very good players - #1A G Niemi, #1D Byfuglien, #1W Ladd, #1D Leddy, #1 WSaad, #3W Frolik, #4D Oduya, #3D Campbell, etc. The cap forces you to be very careful with the money you spend.

Did Russell lead the teams in +/- last year? Yes but that doesn't mean he necessarily even be top 5 among defensemen this year because +/- isn't that kind of repeatable stat. Look at Alex Edler.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

If I had to pick one or the other I'd keep Russell over Wideman. I really like both but the 4 years age difference is pretty big, imo. Wideman already isn't the fastest skater in the world, 4 years from now he could look like he's skating in quicksand. Just hope Kulak and one or two other prospects keep developing well and can take a spot in the top 6 permanently.

He says your completely right.