The Calgary Flames 2015-2016 Training Camp Thread

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

Ramo has the lower percentage with a .938% sv.

Ramo also had to face the Canucks' A squad in one of those games, and McWowsersPennyInspectorGadgetIsAlwaysOnDuty in the other. Hiller got the comparatively easy home start against the Canucks.

With a sample size that small, and a wide variation in quality of opponents, you can't really choose between Ramo and Hiller based on save percentage.

Ortio, on the other hand, got thrown to the wolves and came out with a shutout. I do think he's got the edge over the other two so far.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

Flames Pre-season Goalie Stats:

NO..GOALTENDER........ GP...MINS...AVG...W...L...OT..SO..GA..SA..SV%...A
37...Ortio, Joni................2...90.....0.67.....1...1...0. ...1...1...48..97.9...0
..1.. Hiller, Jonas..............2...89.....1.35....1....0...0.. .0...2...42...95.2...1
31.. Ramo, Karri..............2..102.....2.35...1....0...0... .0...4...64...93.8...0
72..*McDonald, Mason......1...20.....6.00....0...1...0.....0...2. ..8...75.0...0

I always assume I want a Ramo - Ortio combo, but the numbers are at odds with me again. Can't stand Hiller's style but boy is he effective with it.

Ramo has the lower percentage with a .938% sv. That's some pretty stellar goaltending from all three candidates.

I suspect we could see a trade in the coming days while all goalies are performing well.

You simply cannot use stats with sample sizes that small. Useless.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by thymebalm

Flames Pre-season Goalie Stats:

NO..GOALTENDER........ GP...MINS...AVG...W...L...OT..SO..GA..SA..SV%...A
37...Ortio, Joni................2...90.....0.67.....1...1...0. ...1...1...48..97.9...0
..1.. Hiller, Jonas..............2...89.....1.35....1....0...0.. .0...2...42...95.2...1
31.. Ramo, Karri..............2..102.....2.35...1....0...0... .0...4...64...93.8...0
72..*McDonald, Mason......1...20.....6.00....0...1...0.....0...2. ..8...75.0...0

I always assume I want a Ramo - Ortio combo, but the numbers are at odds with me again. Can't stand Hiller's style but boy is he effective with it.

Ramo has the lower percentage with a .938% sv. That's some pretty stellar goaltending from all three candidates.

I suspect we could see a trade in the coming days while all goalies are performing well.

Hiller had NHL D with last change and Ramo had AHL D on the road. Huge difference.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You simply cannot use stats with sample sizes that small. Useless.

Well that small sample size is going to be the difference maker in the Flame's eyes. So why not fans too? Yes there will be other factors at play for Treliving and Hartley to make their decision, but at the end of the day it's going to be mainly their performance in these games that ultimately decides their fate.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Well that small sample size is going to be the difference maker in the Flame's eyes. So why not fans too? Yes there will be other factors at play for Treliving and Hartley to make their decision, but at the end of the day it's going to be mainly their performance in these games that ultimately decides their fate.

no, it's going to be based on how they play, not what their numbers are in 8 to 10 periods of play

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Well that small sample size is going to be the difference maker in the Flame's eyes. So why not fans too? Yes there will be other factors at play for Treliving and Hartley to make their decision, but at the end of the day it's going to be mainly their performance in these games that ultimately decides their fate.

I expect will be their overall body of work in practice, in games, on ice, off ice, etc. plus contract status and age. I do not expect that Treliving and Hartley are going to look at sv% from 1-2 games with drastically different lineups for and against. They are much smarter than that.

[PugnaciousIntern]

1 game save percentages are as bad as 1 game corsi.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

I expect will be their overall body of work in practice, in games, on ice, off ice, etc. plus contract status and age. I do not expect that Treliving and Hartley are going to look at sv% from 1-2 games with drastically different lineups for and against. They are much smarter than that.

Fully Agreed, but I hope they also realize that Ortio's lack of a large sample size doesn't mean he's not ready. He has a small sample size because he hasn't played. Chicken-and-egg. Treat him as one of your three NHL goaltenders, not as "the guy who wasn't here last year".

[druetetective]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

It's actually extremely fascinating stuff. They use quite a bit more than points. It's called Prospect Cohort Success (PCS) model and they are building a database that finds similar prospects and determines potential NHL success. It uses scoring rates and adjusts for era and league (ie QMJHL now vs 10 years ago), height, and age (fairly specific, not just draft year). Basically, it finds players that followed similar routes with similar attributes and gives you the rate of success (200 games in nhl I believe?) for those players.

Really interesting. Kylington had very few comparables as he scored so early.



Andersson was also analyzed:




Here's the introduction to it. Looks to be a fantastic tool they continue to tweak:


http://canucksarmy.com/2015/5/26/dra...-success-model

I highly recommend reading it.

Hmmm yah seems to be a lot of effort put into it. The system lost a lot of credibility for me though when they were 100% convinced that Shinkaruk would be a better player than Horvat. One of the main points was Horvat was well under PPG in his draft year. I watched the Knights a lot that year and the talent level was obvious. I wanted Monahan, Nichushkin or Horvat that year with the 6th pick in that order.

Anyways my main point was it's going to be awesome this year to watch them and Oiler bloggers, who also like the duo, drool over our prospects.

They were also very high on Mangiapane FWIW.

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by druetetective

Hmmm yah seems to be a lot of effort put into it. The system lost a lot of credibility for me though when they were 100% convinced that Shinkaruk would be a better player than Horvat. One of the main points was Horvat was well under PPG in his draft year. I watched the Knights a lot that year and the talent level was obvious. I wanted Monahan, Nichushkin or Horvat that year with the 6th pick in that order.

Anyways my main point was it's going to be awesome this year to watch them and Oiler bloggers, who also like the duo, drool over our prospects.

They were also very high on Mangiapane FWIW.

It lost a lot of credibility because of one case?

You may need to re-evaluate your credibility matrix.

[Enoch Root]

plus, how long ago did they think that?

2 or 3 years ago, Shinkaruk had more potential. But if it also shows that Shinkaruk has stalled in the last couple years while Horvat continued to progress, then it would have been exactly right, no?

[druetetective]

They thought that a year after that particular draft.

It may be a good system for evaluating statistics but no system that uses stats alone is an effective way to evaluate a player IMO.

[GranteedEV]

This preseason has convinced me that I don't think another team in the NHL except for Philadelphia has a better group of defensive prospects than we do. Kulak, Culkin, Wotherspoon, Morrison, Kylington, Andersson, Sieloff all reaffirmed not only NHL potential, but top 4-and-better upside to me. We're going to have to pawn some of these guys off for picks to other teams like we did Baertschi in a few years because there won't be room for them. The best approach will be to NOT burn any years on the younger guys' ELCs so that we can cycle through their entry-level deals as we compete for multiple championships.

And we didn't even have Hickey or Rafikov in Camp.

Our 2016 Stanley Cup top 8 could look like:

Giordano-Brodie
Russell-Hamilton
Kulak-Wideman
Wotherspoon-Nakladal

While our 2020 Stanley Cup Top 6 could on the other hand could well look like

Brodie-Hamilton
Giordano-Kylington
Hickey-Andersson

[druetetective]

I agree man, our depth is crazy good.

Hfboards doesn't have the same opinion as us though.(who cares)

There was a poll between the Flames and Oilers D prospects and they won in a landslide. The main reason being prospect rankings is all about the top few guys because your 4-10 ranked prospects have little chance to make an impact at the NHL level.

I think that's bologna. I'd take ours any day

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by druetetective

I agree man, our depth is crazy good.

Hfboards doesn't have the same opinion as us though.(who cares)

There was a poll between the Flames and Oilers D prospects and they won in a landslide. The main reason being prospect rankings is all about the top few guys because your 4-10 ranked prospects have little chance to make an impact at the NHL level.

I think that's bologna. I'd take ours any day

I think it makes more sense to look at all players 25 and under. When Brodie and Hamilton are at the top of the list, it is no contest...

Brodie...........Klefbom
Hamilton.......Nurse
Hickey..........Reinhart
Wotherspoon.Schultz
Morrison.......Simpson
Kulak...........LaLeggia
Culkin..........Musil
Andersson....Gernat
Kylington.....Davidson
Sieloff.........Bear
Rafikov........Oesterle

rank them anyway you like, there is no contest between the 2

[druetetective]

Ya for sure. 25 and under would be a much better representation of your teams future instead of just the prospects. I wish I thought of this last week when they made the thread lol

Also they are quite delusional when it comes to LaLeggia. They think he's miles ahead of Hickey and a future 1st pairing guy haha.

[Enoch Root]

LaLeggia is LITERALLY the same size as Gaudreau. He will never be an NHL defenseman.

[Enoch Root]

Trying to match them up a bit better...

Brodie. >>> Klefbom
Hamilton >> Nurse
Hickey ...<< Reinhart
Morrison ..< Schultz
Tspoon.... > Musil
Kylington. > LaLeggia
Andersson >> take your pick
Kulak.... >> Gernat
Culkin... >> Davidson
Rafikov. >> Simpson

[Fire]

Reinhart over Hickey? Right now sure, but Hickey's upside is higher.

[MissTeeks]

Lol:

@Monahan20: Got to hangout with @johngaudreau03 this morning at western rv #rock