Federal Election Polling Thread

[Clarkey]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

To circle back to Polling, this may be a kind of Shy Tory effect here in Canada where Conservatives are reluctant to speak their mind because of all the outrage noise:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor

Social desirability bias.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

I've often wondered if there is a slight Shy Tory Effect at play in Canada, because the CPC has a history of very slightly over performing their poll numbers. However, conventional wisdom suggest that this will be much more muted in polls conducted online or by automated voice recording.

One other explanation for that effect could be superior GOTV operation.

[Ducay]

Any of the usual polls coming out today? Like to see what sort of impact the French debate had on Quebec numbers, since thats an area the Libs are hoping to rebound in.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Any of the usual polls coming out today? Like to see what sort of impact the French debate had on Quebec numbers, since thats an area the Libs are hoping to rebound in.

Nanos has his nightly trending poll out - http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elect...bate-1.2583224

• 32.5 per cent picked the Liberals as their top choice
• 31.5 per cent chose the Conservatives
• 27.6 per cent chose the NDP

Looks like the NDP are bleeding votes to the Conservatives and Bloc in Quebec solely based on the niqab question. (I guess we can all start eating crow for the bringing in Lynton Crosbyto save the campaign. Looks like he found his wedge issue)

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

I've often wondered if there is a slight Shy Tory Effect at play in Canada, because the CPC has a history of very slightly over performing their poll numbers. However, conventional wisdom suggest that this will be much more muted in polls conducted online or by automated voice recording.

One other explanation for that effect could be superior GOTV operation.

I was kind of half-way, sorta, involved with the Tory campaign headquarters for a few years. I can confirm that this was a major facet to their campaign strategy. They basically utilized the old Reform networks in Western Canada, and then tried to copy them across the country.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Any of the usual polls coming out today? Like to see what sort of impact the French debate had on Quebec numbers, since thats an area the Libs are hoping to rebound in.

Yes... and oh boy was it ever a bad weekend for the NDP.

Abacus: http://abacusdata.ca/ndp-facing-head...ops-in-quebec/
Nanos: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...0TrackingE.pdf
Innovative: http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/sit..._HorseRace.pdf

The Skinny: For once everyone agrees on something... the NDP took a big hit in Quebec (and since that's their biggest base by extension a hit in their national numbers).

[mrkajz44]

I only took a quick glance through of the innovative poll, but what I find most interesting is CPC extremely low as a "second choice". I know second choice means nothing on election day, but we are still weeks out and second choice at this point could be where some votes ultimately end up. I wonder if the CPC realizes this and is look to stay "mistake free" in the final weeks, rather than try anything that might be considered risky?

[Izzle]

Lol, stuck in a bind.

I really like the Federal Libs overall plans (at least, I agree with a lot of their plans over the CPCs or NDP), but I feel like the Fed candidate in my riding is not going to be as effective in representing my riding in parliament as the NDP candidate.

Lol, what do I do? vote for the NDP candidate (for better local representation) or the Liberal candidate (so that I support the liberal agenda that I agree with).

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Izzle

Lol, stuck in a bind.

I really like the Federal Libs overall plans (at least, I agree with a lot of their plans over the CPCs or NDP), but I feel like the Fed candidate in my riding is not going to be as effective in representing my riding in parliament as the NDP candidate.

Lol, what do I do? vote for the NDP candidate (for better local representation) or the Liberal candidate (so that I support the liberal agenda that I agree with).

This all depends on what you mean by local representation.

[Izzle]

Originally Posted by peter12

This all depends on what you mean by local representation.

I was hoping my candidate would represent my riding in the parliament better. If that is not the case, or if they're powerless to do anything in the parliament to further my riding's needs, then I'd just vote for the Liberal party candidate.

I just feel the NDP candidate will get more done if they were elected. I dont think the Lib candidate will get much done if they were elected.

Also, my knowledge of Canadian politics is very poor. I was hoping to gain a better understanding of how my vote works in the grand scheme of things.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Yes... and oh boy was it ever a bad weekend for the NDP.

Abacus: http://abacusdata.ca/ndp-facing-head...ops-in-quebec/
Nanos: http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...0TrackingE.pdf
Innovative: http://www.innovativeresearch.ca/sit..._HorseRace.pdf

The Skinny: For once everyone agrees on something... the NDP took a big hit in Quebec (and since that's their biggest base by extension a hit in their national numbers).

I wonder how big of a hit they need to take in Quebec for it to actually matter in terms of seats. They were basically lapping the field out there so dropping a bit might not be a big deal in terms of seats.

Of course that 30% in the one poll in Quebec would hurt.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Izzle

what do I do? vote for the NDP candidate (for better local representation) or the Liberal candidate (so that I support the liberal agenda that I agree with).

What riding do you live in? Assuming you live in Alberta there are very few ridings actually in play and if you live in one of those ridings and your choice is the platform of one party (The Liberals) and the local candidate of another (The NDP) I'd probably just throw my vote towards whichever has the best chance of winning since they won't be in competition with each other but rather the candidate of another party (The Tories) that you have stated neither a preference for the platform nor the local candidate.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Izzle

I was hoping my candidate would represent my riding in the parliament better. If that is not the case, or if they're powerless to do anything in the parliament to further my riding's needs, then I'd just vote for the Liberal party candidate.

I just feel the NDP candidate will get more done if they were elected. I dont think the Lib candidate will get much done if they were elected.

Also, my knowledge of Canadian politics is very poor. I was hoping to gain a better understanding of how my vote works in the grand scheme of things.

Backbencher MPs basically have no say outside of caucus, and even then, their actions are strictly controlled, and governed by the leadership. Sometimes, a very prestigious backbencher might get to exercise influence in a roundabout away, such as a private member's bill. Localism never works in our kind of system, and that is probably mostly a good thing.

However, if you have met your local candidate, and think that he/she may be a good advocate within the community, such as helping people with passport applications and the like, then that may be a good way to spend your vote.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Nanos has his nightly trending poll out - http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elect...bate-1.2583224

• 32.5 per cent picked the Liberals as their top choice
• 31.5 per cent chose the Conservatives
• 27.6 per cent chose the NDP

Looks like the NDP are bleeding votes to the Conservatives and Bloc in Quebec solely based on the niqab question. (I guess we can all start eating crow for the bringing in Lynton Crosbyto save the campaign. Looks like he found his wedge issue)

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I wonder how big of a hit they need to take in Quebec for it to actually matter in terms of seats. They were basically lapping the field out there so dropping a bit might not be a big deal in terms of seats.

My guess would be "not a huge hit, but not an insignificant hit either".

The big danger for the NDP is that if they don't recover swiftly then the NDP will cease to be a real "agent of change" possibility in the national narrative. Meaning that they see a secondary hit as ABC voters abandon them for the Liberals both in Quebec and nationwide followed by a third, smaller, hit of bandwagon voters.

Basically the "Orange wave" of 2011 receding back into the electoral ocean.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Parallex

My guess would be "not a huge hit, but not an insignificant hit either".

The big danger for the NDP is that if they don't recover swiftly then the NDP will cease to be a real "agent of change" possibility in the national narrative. Meaning that they see a secondary hit as ABC voters abandon them for the Liberals both in Quebec and nationwide followed by a third, smaller, hit of bandwagon voters.

Basically the "Orange wave" of 2011 receding back into the electoral ocean.

I think a lot of Liberals used to treat the NDP as a place to drop a protest vote, but now given that the NDP are legitimate contender to govern, many are moving back.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

I wonder how big of a hit they need to take in Quebec for it to actually matter in terms of seats. They were basically lapping the field out there so dropping a bit might not be a big deal in terms of seats.

Of course that 30% in the one poll in Quebec would hurt.

I think it would take quite a bit, but there is still a long time until the election.
Quebec is quite a bit like Alberta (or at least like AB used to be) in that it often votes en masse.
It was all Liberal
Then all Bloc
Then all NDP
So if the tide turns, it might go out fast. And that swing would be all Liberal (maybe a couple CPC wins). Anyway - I don't think this can happen that fast, but it did turn that hard in just a few days in the last provincial election.
Will be interesting.

EDIT: Wow. Didn't see that drastic a drop. Only one poll, but. Will really be interesting...

New poll chart

Spoiler!

[Ducay]

Surprised a lot of the support from NDP went straight to the CPC and not to Liberal, given that Bloc/Liberal voters is where all the NDP support came from in the last election.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Surprised a lot of the support from NDP went straight to the CPC

Not too surprising. Last election the NDP got their big boost from gobbling up the soft nationalist vote in Quebec that's the old Mulroney vote in Quebec (and more recently the Bloc).

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Ducay

Surprised a lot of the support from NDP went straight to the CPC and not to Liberal, given that Bloc/Liberal voters is where all the NDP support came from in the last election.

I'm not a lot of the fringe NDP'ers hate the Liberals more then the Conservatives and in the failure of Mulciar will adopt a f you Trudeau strategy.

Just because they're both on the left side of the political spectrum it doesn't mean they're bosum buddies or have anything in common.

NDP'ers see themselves as for the little man and the blue collar worker types they see the Liberals as an elitist party for the wealthy.

and never the two shall meet