Federal Election Polling Thread

[peter12]

I was a tepid CPC supporter, and was thinking of making that jump to the LPC, until Trudeau said we needed an environmental regulatory process with "more teeth."

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by MattyC

That's funny. My feed is almost always full of hyper-conservative nonsense.

As for the tone of people here, I wouldn't say that the people of one extreme are anymore shrill or outraged than the other.

It's almost as though people with opposing viewpoints have opposing viewpoints and therefore, oppose each other.

I'm sure there's some expectation bias happening on both sides.

It should be fair to say that in this thread (which is by far the milder of the two ongoing Federal Election threads on CP) the conservative leaners tend to be more apologetic: "best looking horse at the glue factory", "least worst", "best alternative", "tepid CPC supporter", etc.; while from the other side, the language is pretty aggressive against anyone with an opposing view: "fear-mongering tripe", "ridiculous", "mind-boggling", "sad democracy", etc.

My argument is that while some of that may be explained by personality, some is probably shy toryism.

[Coach]

^^^ You haven't included all the notions that NDP will ruin our country, or that Trudeau will destroy the west, and the general tone of look-down-our-noses at anyone who supports either left-leaning party as communist pigs lost in a haze of maryjane smoke who have no clue about anything related to "proper" economic policy.

The extremes of both sides have been pretty exasperating.

[killer_carlson]

I think people on here are assigning notional traits they perceive supporters of one party or another exhibit and using the broadest brushes to paint participants in the thread.

My reading of it is that for the most part people are prepared to say that each of the parties has screwed up.

[killer_carlson]

Originally Posted by Iggy City

So normal people vote Conservative. Got it.

Edit: Answer me this - CPC sends a post card ad to my house with a proud picture of Harper and his three main campaign points. The last point is "protecting Canadians from jihadi terrorists". You want me to look at that and take it seriously?

That's ridiculous and pure fear mongering. "Hey vote CPC or else them jihadi terrorizers will getcha!"

yeah, as someone who supported the CPC in the past and who is in support of an increased role in addressing ISIS, even I shake my head at that.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by peter12

I was a tepid CPC supporter, and was thinking of making that jump to the LPC, until Trudeau said we needed an environmental regulatory process with "more teeth."

...and?

A toothless regulatory regime can't functionally regulate anything because they have no mechanism to comply enforcement.

[Frequitude]

I would like to meet everyone in the Federal and Provincial election threads. Because sometimes I want to punch all you god damn stupid lefties in the face. But the truth of the matter is that you're probably pretty similar to me, good people and fans of the Flames, Stamps and Jays.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

I would like to meet everyone in the Federal and Provincial election threads. Because sometimes I want to punch all you god damn stupid lefties in the face. But the truth of the matter is that you're probably pretty similar to me, good people and fans of the Flames, Stamps and Jays.

Piss on the CFL and go Mariners!

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Piss on the CFL and go Mariners!

Well then you get a punch in the face.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by peter12

I was a tepid CPC supporter, and was thinking of making that jump to the LPC, until Trudeau said we needed an environmental regulatory process with "more teeth."

I would have voted LP this election, but for the fact that Trudeau is a vapid idiot. Where is Paul Martin when you need him?

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

I would have voted LP this election, but for the fact that Trudeau is a vapid idiot. Where is Paul Martin when you need him?

You ding dongs voted him out.

[Looch City]

Edit - wrong thread

[Looch City]

Edit - wrong thread

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Ok guys, let's try to keep the threads separate. This thread is for discussion of the polls and election forecasting. Discussion of "which party is better" belongs in the other thread.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

I would have voted LP this election, but for the fact that Trudeau is a vapid idiot. Where is Paul Martin when you need him?

Chances are that this election would have been a different story for me if the Liberals would have elected Marc Garneau in as their leader. But every time I listen to Trudeau, I find that there is little that compels me to respect or believe that he's a leader, or that he knows what he's talking about beyond sound bites..

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Chances are that this election would have been a different story for me if the Liberals would have elected Marc Garneau in as their leader. But every time I listen to Trudeau, I find that there is little that compels me to respect or believe that he's a leader, or that he knows what he's talking about beyond sound bites..

The problem with Garneau is that he only won his seat by 600 or so votes in 2011 (and was 0.500 in elections before that). It would have looked really bad to have a leader that would be in real danger of not winning his own seat in 2015.

The other issue is that he will be 67 years old within a few months of this election and probably 72 by the time his term is up. The Liberals are trying to appeal more to young voters and probably saw his age as an issue.

[rubecube]

Interesting tidbit from the Globe on using markets to predict an election instead of polls. Using this method it has the Liberals winning the popular vote but the Conservatives winning the most seats.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...service=mobile

[Bownesian]

Another interesting article. It really delves into the various population subgroups and how they have changed.

http://www.hilltimes.com/polling/201...-history/43515

Seven weeks ago, the NDP were at the top of the polls. The Conservatives were under siege. The Liberals were bleeding votes and looked vulnerable to even further losses with a weakened party brand and a leader with as many negatives as positives. The NDP had a clear shot at collapsing their opposition rival and vaulting ahead of the governing Conservatives with a majority government in reach.
Our latest polls say that opportunity has passed.

While the NDP remains a strong contender to form a minority government, if they succeed it will be against revitalized Conservative and Liberal parties.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

Another interesting article. It really delves into the various population subgroups and how they have changed.

http://www.hilltimes.com/polling/201...-history/43515

I know there are still 23 days left and anything can happen, but it's starting to feel like the NDP peaked 5 weeks too early in this election. Starting to feel like it'll be a Liberals vs. Conservatives election but still a general toss up.

[rubecube]

I don't think Grenier updates 308 on the weekends, so here's the daily Nanos:

LIB 31.8
NDP 30.3
CON 29.6
GRN 4.5

Interesting that while the Conservatives are statistically tied with the other two parties, when you look at party considered, they're well behind:

LIB 50.1
NDP 49.4
CON 38.9

The NDP are bleeding pretty badly in BC but their votes look to be going to the Liberals and not the Conservatives.