Federal Election Polling Thread

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Canuck-Hater

How are the CPC even in this race? Mind boggling.

Because (and I don't believe polls anymore). Mulcair has run a poor campaign and I don't think he's come across as trustworthy, he also doesn't have the charisma of the former NDP leader.

Trudeau still comes across as a guy who doesn't do his homework and at times doesn't know what he's doing. I also believe that when Chretien got involved int he campaign it did a bit of damage because people don't believe that Justin can stand on his own two feet.

The Conservatives have managed to survive a poor campaign start and have run a very understated campaign.

[EldrickOnIce]

makes mention of it that article as well

Mulcair’s party still leads in Quebec with 32.8 per cent voter support, but the Tories have experienced a surge in support, rising to 23.7 per cent in the province.
“I think it’s in the Quebec City region and I think it’s related to the niqab and their response to the Syrian refugees,” Graves said.

Quebec is interesting and polarized on the this kind of topic, regionally. Not surprised (if there is in fact a shift in support for the CPC) that it comes from the 'eastern townships' where anything that 'threatens Quebecois heritage' is a big issue.
Bill C-60, which was the undoing of the PQ in the last provincial election, was to make Quebec a secular state - a so-called clarifying of 'reasonable accommodation' for religious symbols, etc in the public sector. It including making it mandatory to have one's face uncovered for such things, and had a lot of support - but in geographical pockets only. Mainstream Quebec ended the PQ and that nonsense. I am pretty confident the PQ would have formed the government were it not for C-60.

[rubecube]

^^You don't have to mince words. There are pockets of Quebec that can out-racist rural Alberta and BC with ease.

[c.t.ner]

308 has an update that includes the EKOS poll.

http://www.cbc.ca/news2/interactives...015/index.html

CPC 31.3%
LIB 30.3%
NDP 28.9%

Still a long way to go, but it does look like the NDP are slipping, with the Liberals and Conservatives gaining slightly. Still a long way to go, but it looks like the Conservatives are shoring up their base.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Not sure how you interpret CPC landslide from 'swing into lead, closing in on majority'?

But is pretty obvious this poll is the 1/20 that is off the mark.

Yeah landslide was probably the wrong choice of word, but the poll suggests they lead in every province they need to (Ontario and BC namely). For a party we all thought would have little chance of a majority, they could be looking at an easy majority if those poll numbers hold. So easy victory would have been the better choice of word.

The one thing I wonder is if there's another few polls showing the CPC close to a majority or winning big, if we see a collapse in either NDP or Liberal support by people thinking ABC simply going with the least worst, winning option. So NDP or Liberal support would collapse and whichever party is in better position to beat the Conservatives would get the support.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah landslide was probably the wrong choice of word, but the poll suggests they lead in every province they need to (Ontario and BC namely). For a party we all thought would have little chance of a majority, they could be looking at an easy majority if those poll numbers hold. So easy victory would have been the better choice of word.

The one thing I wonder is if there's another few polls showing the CPC close to a majority or winning big, if we see a collapse in either NDP or Liberal support by people thinking ABC simply going with the least worst, winning option.

Exactly. Also important to note that a CPC surge in Quebec will result in absolutely no more seats while definitely affecting National numbers.
As a result, if we see a backlash like you suggest might happen, the surge (if one exists) in support for the CPC may have come a couple weeks too soon for their liking.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Yeah landslide was probably the wrong choice of word, but the poll suggests they lead in every province they need to (Ontario and BC namely). For a party we all thought would have little chance of a majority, they could be looking at an easy majority if those poll numbers hold. So easy victory would have been the better choice of word.

The one thing I wonder is if there's another few polls showing the CPC close to a majority or winning big, if we see a collapse in either NDP or Liberal support by people thinking ABC simply going with the least worst, winning option. So NDP or Liberal support would collapse and whichever party is in better position to beat the Conservatives would get the support.

Mainstreet has a poll out today that shows the Conservatives marginally ahead in Ontario but with 16% still undecided, and we've been seeing this in a lot of other polls, which I think makes a tonne of sense. Most people who've decided to vote Conservative already knew they were going to vote for the Conservatives, whereas the NDP and Liberal support is a lot more fluid, and the undecideds are likely primarily composed of the ABCers who probably won't make up their mind until the very last minute. I'm actually a prime example of this. I know I won't be voting Conservative, but I haven't decided who I will vote for yet.

[peter12]

CPC always plays the long game.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Mainstreet has a poll out today that shows the Conservatives marginally ahead in Ontario but with 16% still undecided, and we've been seeing this in a lot of other polls, which I think makes a tonne of sense. Most people who've decided to vote Conservative already knew they were going to vote for the Conservatives, whereas the NDP and Liberal support is a lot more fluid, and the undecideds are likely primarily composed of the ABCers who probably won't make up their mind until the very last minute. I'm actually a prime example of this. I know I won't be voting Conservative, but I haven't decided who I will vote for yet.

More likely these people are Conservative voters who were hoping that one of the alternatives would show themselves to be an electable alternative. Many people in Calgary I've talked to have been in this position.

But as they watch the disaster that is the Liberal/NDP parties, they are concluding that another round of CPC is the best bet for a stable future. As the undecided votes come in they seem to be falling to the CPC in the important regions of Ontario and BC.

[rubecube]

If you say so.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

More likely these people are Conservative voters who were hoping that one of the alternatives would show themselves to be an electable alternative. Many people in Calgary I've talked to have been in this position.

But as they watch the disaster that is the Liberal/NDP parties, they are concluding that another round of CPC is the best bet for a stable future. As the undecided votes come in they seem to be falling to the CPC in the important regions of Ontario and BC.

I'd agree with this sentiment. I'm not overly satisfied with the Conservative performance during this majority mandate and was hoping that the Liberals would offer a business friendly, centrist platform reminiscent of Chretien/Martin years. Unfortunately they've decided to run to the left of the NDP and their economic platform reads like an afterthought.

Also, after hearing more and more of Trudeau speaking, I'm starting to believe that he does not have the intelligence required to be Prime Minister. He relies on talking points moreso than the other party leaders and as soon as he gets off these you can really tell that he doesn't have a full grasp on the issues he is talking about.

[The Yen Man]

I'll be honest, I would have considered voting Liberal if they had a competent leader and not Trudeau. At this point, the Conservatives seem like the least worst option.

[Baron von Kriterium]

The Conservative Party is the best looking horse in the glue factory right now.

[Looch City]

After the fear mongering tripe I've seen and received from CPC, no I absolutely do not think they're the best choice.

I can't fathom why people think they (and specifically Harper) deserve another win with the bull#### and controversial decisions they've been a part of.

A minority Liberal or NDP is the way to go. At least until Harper is out and the CPC reorganize themselves.

[Senator Clay Davis]

A CPC minority is likely the end of Harper too, can't see how the party wants to have him out there as their leader in the next election after losing a majority to two weak opponents. I think any minority scenario means at least two different leaders in the next election. We should all want a minority, the CPC does not in any way deserve a majority and many of its supporters I think agree with that (even if they'll never say it).

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

Many people in Calgary I've talked to have been in this position.

I, for one, am shocked that the majority of people in the most historically Conservative major city in the country would be leaning Conservative.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by crazy_eoj

More likely these people are Conservative voters who were hoping that one of the alternatives would show themselves to be an electable alternative. Many people in Calgary I've talked to have been in this position.

But as they watch the disaster that is the Liberal/NDP parties, they are concluding that another round of CPC is the best bet for a stable future. As the undecided votes come in they seem to be falling to the CPC in the important regions of Ontario and BC.

I'm in this boat. I and some of my traditionally conservative friends want to be convinced to vote for the Liberals but aren't liking what we're seeing so far and accepting that CPC might be the best alternative.

Still lots of time left though.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by Canuck-Hater

How are the CPC even in this race? Mind boggling.

It could be that the Canadian population is made up of more than just the loud and most visceral posters on internet message boards and comment sections, who in a per-post basis are heavily over-represented by outraged Grits and Dippers.

In my Facebook feed for instance, I see 4-5 outrage posts a day from a select handful of my lefty friends while the majority of the others post nothing but stuff about their kids and their day and normal stuff and comment little on the political stuff while holding strongly conservative views. I think that happens here on CP as well because the non-conservative posters' tone is shrill, perpetually outraged and is usually focused on aspects of government that as a voter I don't give even one crap about (C-51 being high on that ever-growing list).

To circle back to Polling, this may be a kind of Shy Tory effect here in Canada where Conservatives are reluctant to speak their mind because of all the outrage noise:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor

[Looch City]

So normal people vote Conservative. Got it.

Edit: Answer me this - CPC sends a post card ad to my house with a proud picture of Harper and his three main campaign points. The last point is "protecting Canadians from jihadi terrorists". You want me to look at that and take it seriously?

That's ridiculous and pure fear mongering. "Hey vote CPC or else them jihadi terrorizers will getcha!"

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Bownesian

It could be that the Canadian population is made up of more than just the loud and most visceral posters on internet message boards and comment sections, who in a per-post basis are heavily over-represented by outraged Grits and Dippers.

In my Facebook feed for instance, I see 4-5 outrage posts a day from a select handful of my lefty friends while the majority of the others post nothing but stuff about their kids and their day and normal stuff and comment little on the political stuff while holding strongly conservative views. I think that happens here on CP as well because the non-conservative posters' tone is shrill, perpetually outraged and is usually focused on aspects of government that as a voter I don't give even one crap about (C-51 being high on that ever-growing list).

To circle back to Polling, this may be a kind of Shy Tory effect here in Canada where Conservatives are reluctant to speak their mind because of all the outrage noise:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_Factor

That's funny. My feed is almost always full of hyper-conservative nonsense.

As for the tone of people here, I wouldn't say that the people of one extreme are anymore shrill or outraged than the other.

It's almost as though people with opposing viewpoints have opposing viewpoints and therefore, oppose each other.