Federal Election Polling Thread

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Oh I agree but we've seen it happen in the past.

EDIT: I'm not any kind of authority on the matter but I've read several papers written by constitution scholars that seem to indicate that a coalition government wouldn't be as simple as we like to make it sound.

Ok. Now I get what you are saying. My bad - I never read back far enough.
I agree with you 100%.
If the CPC has the most seats, Harper will presume to form the government.
The GG would have to declare he step aside (so we don't get called to another election)? I have no idea how/if that might work constitutionally.
Unless Trudeau is PM, I expect the LPC would pass on this and work with the CPC instead. 2011 was a real low for the LPC. Not sure is working under the NDP would be palatable or strategic for them at this time.

[rubecube]

308 is showing the CPC with a slight lead in the national polls, but the Liberals opening up a sizable lead, which is terrible news for CPC of true. Really, it's not great news for the Liberals either unless they can start gaining some ground in BC or the prairies as well. It really is looking more and more like BC might hold the hammer in this election.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It really is looking more and more like BC might hold the hammer in this election.

Potentially, if you look at the map the CPC has the Prairies, the LPC has Atlantic, and the NDP has Quebec. Ontario and BC are the only true races (on a regional scale... intra-region there are opportunities for marginal gains and with the race as close as it is those marginal gains are worth fighting for). So yeah... BC could be the kingmaker but Ontario has so many seats that if it eventually breaks one way BC's choice matters much less.

Pollapalooza Tuesday: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/1...ter-preference

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/p...e.aspx?id=6995

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...0TrackingE.pdf

[Ashartus]

The way things are shaping up right now, particularly if that Ipsos poll is reflective, we could conceivably have the party that gets the most votes finish third in seats while the party that finishes third in votes gets the most seats due to the way votes break down regionally.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

To me the fact that its a three way race with a bunch of time left in the election bodes well for the Cons, Harper has survived most of the big blows that the opposition parties have dealt out, and its likely that the Conservatives will use their spending advantage heavily.

I agree with this and I think it was part of their strategy for calling the election early. It gave them time to have their dirty laundry aired and enough time for people to forget or dismiss it by the time it actually comes time to vote.

The other part of the strategy of course is to make the other parties spend more so they can't afford another election right away.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Ashartus

The way things are shaping up right now, particularly if that Ipsos poll is reflective, we could conceivably have the party that gets the most votes finish third in seats while the party that finishes third in votes gets the most seats due to the way votes break down regionally.

I don't think that will happen. The electorate will break one way or the other around Oct. 5th-ish and whoever is propelled into 1st will take the most seats.

[rubecube]

I will agree with CaptainCrunch in that I think the NDP have run a lousy campaign since the first debate and have allowed the Liberals to flank them on the left on a number of issues. It honestly really surprised me to see Mulcair shift to the right of the Liberals on marijuana reform and budget deficits. I get that they're trying to get more votes from the centre but I think they should've realized that's not where their strength lies, and now they're bleeding votes from the left to the Liberals and Greens. One has to wonder how far ahead the NDP would be if Layton were still around.

[rubecube]

Man, Forum's polls just seem like they're all over the place. At least Nanos and Ipsos have been fairly consistent. Also, I think BC is skewing the national numbers to some degree. The provincial numbers in most of the other provinces have been sitting in relatively the same order for some time, but BC seems to be changing on a daily basis.

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/ca...tish-columbia/

[nik-]

Jack Layton was a ######. All flash, no substance. Just a guy looking to shoot some one liners out and in general pretty mean spirited. He benefited from a QC protest vote and somehow turned into some mythical figure.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by nik-

Jack Layton was a ######. All flash, no substance. Just a guy looking to shoot some one liners out and in general pretty mean spirited. He benefited from a QC protest vote and somehow turned into some mythical figure.

I should of added that I'm not and never was a Jack Layton fan, but I think he had a stronger following and more charisma than Mulcair.

[nik-]

He did for sure. It's just that he was a dick. Layton was a "I can say whatever I want because I'm never going to have to run this place" guy. Mulcair is a "say whatever I need to go win" guy.

[Senator Clay Davis]

So according to EKOS this election is pretty much over and it's going to be a CPC landslide.

Stephen Harper’s Conservative party has taken a commanding lead in the federal election race, a new poll suggests.

With less than a month to go in the campaign, and heading into the first of three leaders debates, the Tories have moved ahead of their rivals with the support of 35.4 per cent of voters, according to the Ekos poll conducted for Montreal’s La Presse newspaper.

Justin Trudeau and the Liberals have 26.3 per cent support and the NDP has the backing of 24.5 per cent of respondents. The poll questioned 2,343 people between Sept. 17 and Sept. 22 and is considered accurate to within two percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

The results would seem to smash the notion of a three-way horserace that has been recorded in polls conducted through the first eight weeks of the election campaign.

“If (the Conservatives) keep those numbers up they’re very close to a majority — if not there already,” said pollster Frank Graves. “The numbers are about as good as we had for the final weekend of polling (in the 2011 election) when they achieved their majority.”

Graves credits the Tory swing into the lead both on the missteps of Harper’s opponents and the targeted, emotional appeal to traditional Conservative voters that is bringing them back into the fold.

“It’s clear that there has been growth in some of the constituencies they won their majority with in 2011— people who had been sitting on the sidelines unhappy with them or whatever they were doing,” the pollster said. “They seem to have returned as a consequence of what has been going on over the last week.”

http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-...-suggests.html

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Well, I think we are indeed in a brave new world if 35.4% is "a commanding lead." But the key question is whether these numbers hold up over time. Let's not forget that Forum had the NDP at 40% not long ago. My guess is this is another similar anomaly, but time will tell.

[Ducay]

The longer this election goes on, the more it feels like the GOP primaries race. No good options.

A CPC minority would probably be the best for weaning CPC off of power and getting some more moderate bills passed, but I have a feeling they'd be defeated right away in the house because the other 2 parties can taste blood.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

So according to EKOS this election is pretty much over and it's going to be a CPC landslide.



http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-...-suggests.html

LOL, I love how the article suggests that when this poll is a complete outlier. I saw another poll this morning with the Liberals in the lead, but the usual close three-way race. I can't see how people would suggest anything aside from that at this point. given that almost every poll has shown that.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

So according to EKOS this election is pretty much over and it's going to be a CPC landslide.



http://www.thestar.com/news/federal-...-suggests.html

Not sure how you interpret CPC landslide from 'swing into lead, closing in on majority'?

But is pretty obvious this poll is the 1/20 that is off the mark.

[rubecube]

According to another article, the swing is due to Quebecers being in favour of the CPC's stance on the niqab. If that's honestly the deciding factor in this election, then we live in a very sad democracy.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Ducay

The longer this election goes on, the more it feels like the GOP primaries race. No good options.

A CPC minority would probably be the best for weaning CPC off of power and getting some more moderate bills passed, but I have a feeling they'd be defeated right away in the house because the other 2 parties can taste blood.

The Liberals and NDP won't have the resources to defeat the CPC and force another election. The length of the campaign has sucked them dry and pretty much ensures that a CPC minority will go unchallenged for at least 2 years and likely for their full term.

[Canuck-Hater]

How are the CPC even in this race? Mind boggling.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Canuck-Hater

How are the CPC even in this race? Mind boggling.

Because people have bought into the myth that they handle the economy well.