09-14-2015, 10:21 AM
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#1
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Maple Bay, B.C.
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Top 300 projected scorers
TSN (Scott Cullen) has compiled his list:
http://www.tsn.ca/crosby-no-1-in-the...orers-1.360216
Top Flames player is Johnny Hockey at 62 points (good for 34th place), McDavid is top Oilers scorer with 70 points (15th place).
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09-14-2015, 10:34 AM
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#2
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Flame Country
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List is pretty dumb if you ask me. He's going so far as to guess how many games each player will be playing next season. Of course he projects Gio missing 15 games so his totals fall below plenty of lesser defenseman.
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09-14-2015, 10:36 AM
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#3
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Down by the sea, where the watermelons grow, back to my home, I dare not go...
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How does he come up with these lists? Are they just guesses? Does he use an average from previous seasons? Does he have priors that he updates each year? I mean, if it's just guesses, I can make guesses too.
Oh wait, Cullen is a "hockey analyst", so he must know what he's talking about.
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09-14-2015, 10:37 AM
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#4
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Crash and Bang Winger
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Never been impressed with Scott Cullen on anything he has done. But I wish I could get paid by Bell for doing what he gets paid for!
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09-14-2015, 10:42 AM
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#5
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Franchise Player
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Obviously Corsi can predict how many games a player will play each season.
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09-14-2015, 10:56 AM
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#6
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Scoring Winger
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So Hudler regresses 19 points while Gaudreau and Monahan fail to reach their previous season totals?
Highly doubt it... Hudler may take a step back in his totals, but it won't be that significant. He's playing with two players that are continually improving. I see him at around 70 points, with Gaudreau around the same, and Monahan a few points back.
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09-14-2015, 10:59 AM
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#7
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Richmond, BC
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Unless Johnny gets injured, I would be shocked if he scored less than 70.
__________________
"For thousands of years humans were oppressed - as some of us still are - by the notion that the universe is a marionette whose strings are pulled by a god or gods, unseen and inscrutable." - Carl Sagan
Freedom consonant with responsibility.
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09-14-2015, 11:02 AM
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#8
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Scott Cullen is a clown - I haven't read one of his articles in probably 5 years. I'm not even going to open this link but hearing that he dropped the production from Johnny and Sean is laughable. Young players get better with experience, not drop off.
I have no idea where this guy comes up with this stuff.
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09-14-2015, 11:03 AM
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#9
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Thunder Bay Ontario
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For those of you doubting the validity of this list, I'm pretty sure Cullen knows a little something about projections if there's ever any concern.
This guy reminds of the oilers. No good.
__________________
Fan of the Flames, where being OK has become OK.
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09-14-2015, 11:07 AM
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#10
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Montreal
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I'm not a big fan of Cullen either, but it's entirely reasonable to predict Giordano will miss 15 games and that Hudler's point total will decline.
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09-14-2015, 11:08 AM
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#11
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Bonavista, Newfoundland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Poe969
For those of you doubting the validity of this list, I'm pretty sure Cullen knows a little something about projections if there's ever any concern.
This guy reminds of the oilers. No good.
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Speaking of the Oilers, he had McDdavid as the 15 overall scorer and the entire Oilers first line ahead any Flame.
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09-14-2015, 11:20 AM
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#12
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Scoring Winger
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Looking further through the list, aside from the entire first line, apparently Gio, Hamilton, Brodie, Wideman, Colborne and Frolik will also regress this season.
But, but.. Mason Raymond will improve to a 28 point season!.. and Bennett will post 17 goals and 35 points.
Definitely a joke to predict all the young players on the upswing in their careers to falter.
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09-14-2015, 11:35 AM
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#13
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Franchise Player
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I can't imagine ever caring about one of these lists yet posters always sound offended by them like they actually mean something.
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09-14-2015, 12:03 PM
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#14
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First Line Centre
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So bad...
Good for a funny comments scan though. Some gold like Hall should be 6-7 and McDavid is a LOCK for top 10. I need to gamble with Oilers fans this year...
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09-14-2015, 12:14 PM
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#15
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darthma
How does he come up with these lists? Are they just guesses? Does he use an average from previous seasons? Does he have priors that he updates each year? I mean, if it's just guesses, I can make guesses too.
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Cullen just did what anyone entering a serious hockey pool does - make projections. Not sure why people are getting their noses out of joint about it.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
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09-14-2015, 12:19 PM
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#16
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Flame Country
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Menace
I'm not a big fan of Cullen either, but it's entirely reasonable to predict Giordano will miss 15 games and that Hudler's point total will decline.
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It's reasonable to predict any hockey player will miss 15 games in a season. But why single Gio out when he's never had a nagging injury? Why even guess the amount of games a player will miss anyways?
I just think this top 300 scoring projections list is nothing more than one mans guess with a whole lot of bias sprinkled in. Take it with a grain of salt.
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09-14-2015, 12:20 PM
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#17
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Franchise Player
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He had Gaudreau outscoring RNH last year and got massive heat for it from Oiler fans. He had to explain repeatedly, "I don't project Flames vs Oilers"
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by JobHopper
The thing is, my posts, thoughts and insights may be my opinions but they're also quite factual.
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09-14-2015, 12:40 PM
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#18
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Down by the sea, where the watermelons grow, back to my home, I dare not go...
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffFletcher
Cullen just did what anyone entering a serious hockey pool does - make projections. Not sure why people are getting their noses out of joint about it.
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Two reasons for me -
1) he gets paid to do it, and
2) he does it under the pretense of 'analytics'.
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09-14-2015, 12:41 PM
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#19
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#1 Goaltender
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Northern Crater
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Menace
I'm not a big fan of Cullen either, but it's entirely reasonable to predict Giordano will miss 15 games and that Hudler's point total will decline.
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Any player could miss 15 games, it's not a predictable thing unless the player has a history with the same type of injury. Giordano's injuries have been freak occurrences for the most part so predicting one is stupid. Does Cullen think Gio is going to suffer a severed achilles tendon or a cracked sternum? What injury specifically does he think he will suffer? Or is it, 'he missed time the last two seasons so he'll likely miss time this season too."? Dumb logic.
I like how Hudler is going to drop 20 points and Monahan and Gaudreau will stay relatively close to last season. Does he foresee Hudler not playing on their line? I could see a 10 point drop but 20 is the literal worst case scenario (without injury). Predicting worst case scenarios is dumb IMO (Gio missing 15 games and Hudler dropping by 20 points are exactly that) but I see he doesn't apply that logic to his Oiler projections...
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09-14-2015, 12:52 PM
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#20
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Franchise Player
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I guess I had always assumed that people into hockey enough to post in these threads entered serious hockey pools. Looks like I was wrong.
Projecting games played is an essential part of making scoring projections. Part of it is based on long-term history. Part of it is based on recent history. Part of it is based on age. And part of it is gut feeling. I'm genuinely surprised that this is being regarded as some kind of kooky or outrageous practice.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
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