Kevin O'Leary nails it.

[Bootsy]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think comments like this show how naive people are to changing demographics. People of an older generation than mine seem to think this is just a blip in the radar and the result of protest votes. I don't think this is the case. Attitudes are changing, particularly towards the oil sector and what they should be paying back as a result of profiting off the resource in our ground in a huge way. There is also a huge shift in how people look at the attainability of renewable resources, which sours many people on oil and gas in general.

I know many people who voted NDP knowing full well it would likely affect their employment directly, purely because they couldn't let their personal gain outweigh what they perceive as larger social issues.
I think people that think this is an aberration are in for a surprise.

I think you're the naïve one thinking Alberta as a whole suddenly changed to a socialist paradise overnight, it was a perfect storm of an arrogant PC party who was long past their due date blaming everyday Albertans for the provincial debt in the media , which pi$$ed everyone off (along with the awful Redford mess which had already left a bad taste in everyone's mouth) and then they call an election not long after.
You had the Wildrose in weak shape after Danielle Smith and friends crossed the floor and also had a charismatic Notley doing well in the debate and public appearances.

Had Danielle Smith not crossed the floor she would be Premier right now of that I have no doubt.
It took only 2 months after the NDP won the election for Albertans to poll in favor of Wildrose.

If you want to talk anecdotal evidence like your buddies, my group of peers can't stand the NDP be it friends or work colleagues so that must make it true and the ones that did vote for them are having huge remorse.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/ca...es-in-new-poll

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by MattyC

Well, I'd have to get you to point out where I said a majority of oil company employees voted NDP, which I would guess is not true.

What I can say is that, yes, the majority of the people I know, which are mostly in my age group, who work(ed) in O&G, voted NDP and knew full well it would likely affect their employment. One of which actually said those words to me, the ones you noted above. "I know I should vote PC, but I just can't let my personal career path get in the way of my social values." That guy in particular was a field geologist who was layed off at the time of the election (hint BEFORE the NDP got in. Almost as though all of this was happening before and it's not their fault. GASP). He's now off to a masters program in England.

I know multiple geologists and engineers in their early-mid twenties, who are being hit hard by all of this, who think this way. This is an attitude shift amongst many people in my age group. It's not an aberration, it's an evolution.

Great anecdotal evidence there. If anything, perhaps it suggests that science focused university programs should be placing a greater emphasis on economics as an area of study - rather than just as a first year elective.

I'm in my mid 20s working in finance (not O&G) but with friends working in every sector of corporate Calgary. Not a single one of these people voted for the NDP. To parallel you, I guess I can draw the conclusion that younger generations as a whole are shifting towards a more fiscally conservative viewpoint.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Bootsy

I think you're the naïve one thinking Alberta as a whole suddenly changed to a socialist paradise overnight, it was a perfect storm of an arrogant PC party who was long past their due date blaming everyday Albertans for the provincial debt in the media , which pi$$ed everyone off (along with the awful Redford mess which had already left a bad taste in everyone's mouth) and then they call an election not long after.
You had the Wildrose in weak shape after Danielle Smith and friends crossed the floor and also had a charismatic Notley doing well in the debate and public appearances.

Had Danielle Smith not crossed the floor she would be Premier right now of that I have no doubt.
It took only 2 months after the NDP won the election for Albertans to poll in favor of Wildrose.

If you want to talk anecdotal evidence like your buddies, my group of peers can't stand the NDP be it friends or work colleagues so that must make it true and the ones that did vote for them are having huge remorse.

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/ca...es-in-new-poll

Yeah.... not sure where I said the change is finished or claimed it had happened overnight, moving us into some socialist paradise. I'm not even saying we SHOULD be moving towards that. It's not all out corporate freedom or socialist paradise, there are things in between. I'm just claiming that this is the beginnings of a shift in attitude. Eventually (in the next 10-20 years) people from my demographic will make up the majority of policy makers and the voting base. Will some people's attitudes change, either to the left or right, as they get older? Of course. But when I see the people whi grew up thinking full-blown capitalism was the best and only way to operate, now making policy to that effect, it stands to reason that people who grow up believing in a move away from fossil fuels and movement towards social systems based on sharing gross excess will shift policy towards that effect.

My assertion is not that we will or should move into a socialist paradise (whatever that means). It's that as younger demographics move into positions of power, they will naturally push policy towards their ideals.

Can I ask what age you and your friends are?

[Coach]

Originally Posted by LanceUppercut

So nice of him to be in it for the long haul here in Alberta. Vote for a government hostile to the oil and gas industry and **** off to England so he doesn't have to deal with the fallout. Let someone else feel the pain!

This is pretty rich considering the whole fear in here is that oil companies will ditch when we ask for a bigger piece of the resource they are pulling from our ground and selling to international markets making ridiculous profits (these last few months notwithstanding), leaving a large portion of the population unemployed and not giving a rats vagina because they can get a percentage point lower tax rate the next province over, or the next country over.

Originally Posted by Zarley

I'm in my mid 20s working in finance (not O&G) but with friends working in every sector of corporate Calgary. Not a single one of these people voted for the NDP. To parallel you, I guess I can draw the conclusion that younger generations as a whole are shifting towards a more fiscally conservative viewpoint.

Interesting. As I am exactly the same as you, mid-twenties and in finance, dealing with people from pretty much every industry. I never claimed what I said to be anything but my own opinion of where things are going.

[PeteMoss]

Are we really pretending these layoffs are due to the NDP and not due to value of oil dropping and not rallying in the past few months?

NDP is more socialist than the Conservatives - but they are not some ultra socialist fringe part.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by Bootsy

Had Danielle Smith not crossed the floor she would be Premier right now of that I have no doubt.

One of the tactics that backfired on Prentice was WR crossing floor to PC back in January. I'm not sure Smith would have won against Prentice for sure because she'll suffer from the same right vote splitting dilmmma. But the NDP likely would not have won had Smith not done that. That was only 8 short months ago and we are now facing the possibility of having an NDP Federal government. Life is full of twists.

[WCan_Kid]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I never said that, in fact I would argue against your sarcastic post and say that every generation HAS changed the world, whether it was for the better or worse is up to interpretation. They change it purely by having their attitudes end up in positions of power as they grow into the work force. Prohibition, civil rights, womens rights, the red scare, terrorism, are all the result of changing attitudes ending up in positions where they can actually inact change.

People act like we've never had national or even global shifts in social and economic issues.

A province of 3.5 million people electing a slightly socialist gov't is totally the same as a country of 300 million bringing in equal rights legislation and ending a brief period of alcohol prohibition.

I just think you may be overestimating the impact a handful of young Albertan's have on the rest of the planet.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by WCan_Kid

A province of 3.5 million people electing a slightly socialist gov't is totally the same as a country of 300 million bringing in equal rights legislation and ending a brief period of alcohol prohibition.

I just think you may be overestimating the impact a handful of young Albertan's have on the rest of the planet.

Or perhaps my view on this isn't narrowed to only youth in Alberta.

The point isn't to compare the historical relevance of these instances. It's to show that changing attitudes ultimately create change. People didn't like the way black people were treated, mostly young people, and eventually, years later, civil rights movements make a profound impact. People weren't happy with prohibition and it's affect on crime, eventually, it's gone (this is similar to the marijuana debate going on in our country right now).

The post I quoted seemed to suggest that every generation of 20 somethings thinks they can change the world (I would agree with that), and that it never happens (with which I disagree and actually would say that they always do, just maybe not in the way they intended. But the world always changes when new demographics take over positions of power).

[rubecube]

I really wish people would stop calling the NDP a socialist party. They're a left-leaning populist party.

[LanceUppercut]

Originally Posted by MattyC

This is pretty rich considering the whole fear in here is that oil companies will ditch when we ask for a bigger piece of the resource they are pulling from our ground and selling to international markets making ridiculous profits (these last few months notwithstanding), leaving a large portion of the population unemployed and not giving a rats vagina because they can get a percentage point lower tax rate the next province over, or the next country over.

So if there is so much ridiculous profit to be made, why has investment been slowing down even before oil prices dropped? Projects were being cancelled and delayed because they were uneconomic under existing conditions.

Also, if we're getting so screwed by the royalty rates, let's just nationalize (provincialize?) the whole thing! That's an obvious cure to "our fair share". The people would rejoice and bask in the full glory of all the ridiculous profits to be made. All the positions would be unionized public service too! That's a win/win scenario for everyone. We would no longer be getting screwed by the evil oil corporations who employ thousands and thousands of Albertan's (and still do).

Also, the oil companies are beholden to the shareholders. They are required to seek out the best return on investment for their capital. I didn't see corporation A voting in an NDP government before deciding to move.

[Kjesse]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I really wish people would stop calling the NDP a socialist party. They're a left-leaning populist party.

Their fundamental ideas and their reason for existing are historically socialist, but they've abandoned those in the pursuit of power.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Delgar

Their fundamental ideas and their reason for existing are historically socialist, but they've abandoned those in the pursuit of power.

Totally, but to call them socialists at this point is pretty disingenuous.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by polak

The global economy was fine while the PC's squandered every last penny of Alberta's 15 years of prosperity. But yeah, vote for them. They clearly know what they're doing.

This is a narrative I'd like to explore further.

How did the PC's "squander" the last 15 years of prosperity?

I think it's necessary to understand what the PC's chose to do with that money - they gave it to the people in the form of no PST, lowest income taxes in canada, lowest corporate taxes, low provincial debt. That whole "Alberta Advantage" thing.

Now, let's assume 15 years ago, the PC's decided that they're going to sock away all of their oil revenue into the Heritage fund, and instead raised every single tax to Ontario or BC levels. Is that the kind of government that you would be talking about that wouldn't have squandered prosperity?

I'd argue that the Conservatives did exactly what they were elected to do. They kept money in Albertans' pockets, and pushed businesses to hire more people at higher wages. The fact that we've been paying our bills with oil revenues was a conscious decision that is reflected both in the lackluster size of the Heritage fund, and the high incomes and low taxes of Albertans compared with the rest of Canada.

TLDR: I don't agree that the oil revenues were squandered, and I believe that Prentice was 100% correct when he told Albertans to "look in the mirror."

But let's be real, the public wants those OTHER guys ("rich" or "corporations") to pay more taxes, and want to share none of the burden.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by firebug

Again, if you don't understand it, don't quote it.

That isn't a charge to the government (i.e. no cash impact). In fact, if you read their financials (Q2 - 2015 note 7) you'll see that their H1 2015 deferred income tax expense is $60 MM lower than H1 2014 (209 vs 269) and current taxes paid are -3MM for Q2 (ie they got money back) and -108MM for H1.

Do they figure they will have to pay more in the future, of course, but it's being reported like they have to pay $579 right now, when in reality in North America they only had to pay $79mm (vs $225mm last year) in the quarter. The $579MM is an accounting gimmick (aren't they all) that they are using to score some political points and put pressure on the government.

So please explain how the $579 is an accounting gimmick?

And....to my point, will the 2% increase in corporate taxes result in less money for CNRL in this quarter or any future quarters?

[Red]

Originally Posted by Regorium

This is a narrative I'd like to explore further.

How did the PC's "squander" the last 15 years of prosperity?

I think it's necessary to understand what the PC's chose to do with that money - they gave it to the people in the form of no PST, lowest income taxes in canada, lowest corporate taxes, low provincial debt. That whole "Alberta Advantage" thing.

Now, let's assume 15 years ago, the PC's decided that they're going to sock away all of their oil revenue into the Heritage fund, and instead raised every single tax to Ontario or BC levels. Is that the kind of government that you would be talking about that wouldn't have squandered prosperity?

I'd argue that the Conservatives did exactly what they were elected to do. They kept money in Albertans' pockets, and pushed businesses to hire more people at higher wages. The fact that we've been paying our bills with oil revenues was a conscious decision that is reflected both in the lackluster size of the Heritage fund, and the high incomes and low taxes of Albertans compared with the rest of Canada.

TLDR: I don't agree that the oil revenues were squandered, and I believe that Prentice was 100% correct when he told Albertans to "look in the mirror."

But let's be real, the public wants those OTHER guys ("rich" or "corporations") to pay more taxes, and want to share none of the burden.

Only the high earners and corporations pay less taxes here than elsewhere. Lower wage earners actually pay more than some other provinces because of our low tax exemptions. But since we've had the same PC government all these years that fact was never advertised like "alberta advantage" and "lowest taxes". You took their bait.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think comments like this show how naive people are to changing demographics. People of an older generation than mine seem to think this is just a blip in the radar and the result of protest votes. I don't think this is the case. Attitudes are changing, particularly towards the oil sector and what they should be paying back as a result of profiting off the resource in our ground in a huge way. There is also a huge shift in how people look at the attainability of renewable resources, which sours many people on oil and gas in general.

I know many people who voted NDP knowing full well it would likely affect their employment directly, purely because they couldn't let their personal gain outweigh what they perceive as larger social issues.

I think people that think this is an aberration are in for a surprise.

What could be a bigger social issue than living a prosperous life?

If you don't want your person gain to outweigh any perceived social issue, then maybe those folks would be happy somewhere else.

I understand the demographics issue. It is frustrating being a lifelong Albertan.

My dad worked in the industry for 30+ years. Alberta oil put food in my stomach and clothes on my back. It is doing the same for my young family today. I have a need to defend the Alberta way of life.

Attitudes are changing, particularly towards the oil sector and what they should be paying back as a result of profiting off the resource in our ground in a huge way.

Could this be the politics of envy?

[polak]

Originally Posted by Regorium

This is a narrative I'd like to explore further.

How did the PC's "squander" the last 15 years of prosperity?

I think it's necessary to understand what the PC's chose to do with that money - they gave it to the people in the form of no PST, lowest income taxes in canada, lowest corporate taxes, low provincial debt. That whole "Alberta Advantage" thing.

Now, let's assume 15 years ago, the PC's decided that they're going to sock away all of their oil revenue into the Heritage fund, and instead raised every single tax to Ontario or BC levels. Is that the kind of government that you would be talking about that wouldn't have squandered prosperity?

I'd argue that the Conservatives did exactly what they were elected to do. They kept money in Albertans' pockets, and pushed businesses to hire more people at higher wages. The fact that we've been paying our bills with oil revenues was a conscious decision that is reflected both in the lackluster size of the Heritage fund, and the high incomes and low taxes of Albertans compared with the rest of Canada.

TLDR: I don't agree that the oil revenues were squandered, and I believe that Prentice was 100% correct when he told Albertans to "look in the mirror."

But let's be real, the public wants those OTHER guys ("rich" or "corporations") to pay more taxes, and want to share none of the burden.

So in other words, you admit that the people voting for the PC's in previous elections were clueless and it was poor decision after decision? Well luckily, as Matty is arguing, looks like the younger demographic that is starting to gain influence is okay with paying higher taxes and forcing corporations to pay hire taxes in spite of the salary cuts that may entail.

Albertans did look in the mirror and made a change. Prentice was just too down right moronic to notice that his party is what Albertans needed to get rid of and he got to leave Alberta politics with his tail between his legs like the clown he is.

[Flacker]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Are we really pretending these layoffs are due to the NDP and not due to value of oil dropping and not rallying in the past few months?

NDP is more socialist than the Conservatives - but they are not some ultra socialist fringe part.

The pain was magnified by the threat of a royalty review. Months of uncertainty, followed by stating they aren't changing anything until 2017. More working capital would have remained in the province, without said uncertainty.

There would have been layoffs regardless of party elected, and I don't think anyone is arguing that here.

[Flacker]

Originally Posted by polak

So in other words, you admit that the people voting for the PC's in previous elections were clueless and it was poor decision after decision? Well luckily, as Matty is arguing, looks like the younger demographic that is starting to gain influence is okay with paying higher taxes and forcing corporations to pay hire taxes in spite of the salary cuts that may entail.

Salary cuts to zero (layoffs) are hard to deal with, both for the individual, and the economy. Even if those jobs are relocated to a more tax friendly region, the net tax gain for Alberta is zero. This is what the NDP royalty review banter is resulting in.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Red

Only the high earners and corporations pay less taxes here than elsewhere. Lower wage earners actually pay more than some other provinces because of our low tax exemptions. But since we've had the same PC government all these years that fact was never advertised like "alberta advantage" and "lowest taxes". You took their bait.

The break even is like $75k a year. The income tax policy obviously benefited higher earners. Not every policy has to benefit everyone equally.

How about the lack of a 5-10% PST? Is that not an advantage?

So in other words, you admit that the people voting for the PC's in previous elections were clueless and it was poor decision after decision? Well luckily, as Matty is arguing, looks like the younger demographic that is starting to gain influence is okay with paying higher taxes and forcing corporations to pay hire taxes in spite of the salary cuts that may entail.

What? I never said it was a poor decision. I said that people wanted to keep more of their money, and have less taxes, and voted for that party.

My question to you is why do you think that this particular decision means "squandering" prosperity? A lot of people prospered in Alberta over the last 15 years - enabled by the government. Whether it was a rig pig or corporate calgary or the timmy's in fort mac or Edmonton.

Also, I'm okay with higher taxes. Slap on a 7% PST, change the income tax brackets to be more progressive. Raise corporate tax. Add a carbon tax - 10c/L more on gas, $0.1 per kwh, higher fees for vehicle registration, a surbubia levy for carbon footprint. Do it all, I don't care.

I'm just saying that you should recognize that the previous government enabled a group of people that may not be you, but it was a choice. Not just "squandered". And, like you said, we have the choice to vote them out. They just don't deserve the hate for being incompetent managers or whatever you are implying (corruption is something else though).