Sanders does seem to be building momentum. Would love to see him snatch the coronation (er, nomination) from Clinton.
EDIT: Not sure why Sanders is being lumped in with Trump. Sanders, although not a Washington insider like Clinton, is a perfectly credible candidate.
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What Sanders, and Trump both do (in somewhat different ways) is capture the despair of their voting base. A despair that the political establishment can never be reformed or revolutionized. That every four years will come along another grey individual in a grey suit making the same promises that turn grey after three years in office.
The National Review had a great article about Trump's mockery of political correctness, and his surprising astuteness in judging, and characterizing the moronic inefficacy of his fellow Republican candidates. I don't know if Trump will win, but part me of thinks that he has to win, or at least come close.
Looking at the USA from 30,000 feet, one really sees a country in total disarray. The middle class is split, with the upper half doing quite well, or at least holding steady, and the lower half falling more, and more into the squalor of an underclass. One only has to look at the utter destruction of the American family to know how difficult it is to live a dignified, relational life as an average American these days. This hopelessness feeds into all of the other Trump flashpoints, like immigration, employment, and the military.
Meanwhile, Sanders seems like the kind of populist that might actually tax the crap out of the wealthy American oligarchs.
Last edited by peter12; 08-31-2015 at 10:15 AM.
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I'm not sure how I feel about Sanders but I definitely see Trump falling down the polls at some point. He can't hang with the experienced politicians in the debates once questions arise about his policy platform. He doesn't seem to have one. At least nothing he cares to share with us. Yes, there is still a year to go but at some point he has to explain how he is going to "build better bridges, better highways" etc... all the while lowering taxes at the same time. He speaks in sound bites. He is getting support from the conservative voters who feel like they aren't being heard, that their problems are being ignored. These are people desperate to "matter" again after 7 years of the lefty president in office. Trump will ride that wave as long as possible but that wave will crash at some point in my opinion. For now, Trump is resonating with the "working man", the blue collar types. He is the enemy of the working man and they will see that soon enough in my opinion.
Then again, Rob Ford got elected and had a lot of support right up until the end so what the heck do I know.
Looking at the USA from 30,000 feet, one really sees a country in total disarray. The middle class is split, with the upper half doing quite well, or at least holding steady, and the lower half falling more, and more into the squalor of an underclass. One only has to look at the utter destruction of the American family to know how difficult it is to live a dignified, relational life as an average American these days. This hopelessness feeds into all of the other Trump flashpoints, like immigration, employment, and the military.
It's worth pointing out that, from 30,000 feet, the difference between the United States and Canada is a donut shop.
What Sanders, and Trump both do (in somewhat different ways) is capture the despair of their voting base. A despair that the political establishment can never be reformed or revolutionized. That every four years will come along another grey individual in a grey suit making the same promises that turn grey after three years in office.
A "manufactured despair," but I guess despair is still despair, as long as you believe in it hard enough.
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The National Review had a great article about Trump's mockery of political correctness, and his surprising astuteness in judging, and characterizing the moronic inefficacy of his fellow Republican candidates. I don't know if Trump will win, but part me of thinks that he has to win, or at least come close.
His negatives far surpass his support, so as other candidates fallout of the race and those votes move to other candidates you'll see Trumps support stagnate, flounder, then disappear. We are still in the traditional silly season of the primary process. The pretenders will fall by the wayside soon enough, Donald Trump being one of them.
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Looking at the USA from 30,000 feet, one really sees a country in total disarray. The middle class is split, with the upper half doing quite well, or at least holding steady, and the lower half falling more, and more into the squalor of an underclass. One only has to look at the utter destruction of the American family to know how difficult it is to live a dignified, relational life as an average American these days. This hopelessness feeds into all of the other Trump flashpoints, like immigration, employment, and the military.
Trump is the original empty suit. He is not going to change anything if elected. He's the type of guy that Washington continues to write laws that support. He's not going to go to Washington and change that. He talks a good game by making all of these culture war references, but in reality he knows these issues are bull#### and they don't matter.
All we've heard from Trump are ignorant talking points. He has provided no substance behind his positions. He has no plan or strategy for dealing with these complex issues because he knows he won't be around to have to deal with any of these complex issues. He's getting people to donate all that money to his "campaign" when he knows full well he is not going to really campaign. He'll continue to use the media by saying outrageous things and continue to collect the money people pledge to his PAC. As soon as he sees his popularity begin to flag he'll withdraw and walk away with that bag full of PAC money for doing essentially nothing.
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Meanwhile, Sanders seems like the kind of populist that might actually tax the crap out of the wealthy American oligarchs.
How exactly would Sanders, or anyone else for that matter, do that? The Oval Office does not get to decide who gets taxed. That is decided in Congress. Because of the belligerence that exists in Congress it is ever difficult for a president to affect change from the Oval Office. The only way the presidency could have that type of impact is if the electorate sends a bunch of like-minded people to Congress. Thanks to gerrymandering and the intellectual laziness of the average American that is pretty well impossible. The system is setup to send the same personalities and mindsets to Washington, making change like you suggest almost impossible. To raise taxes on the rich you need a Bernie Sanders to drop the bill in the hopper, another 218 Bernie Sanders in the House to read and pass the legislation, another 60 in the Senate to approve and forward the bill on, and Bernie Sanders in the White House to sign it into law. Never going to happen in this country.
If you read fivethirtyeight they have some excellent articles on why sanders and trump won't win
Essentially trumps support has peaked as in unfavourables American until republicans are too high and he only looks strong when the other candidates are splitting the anti trump vote and eventually it will coalesce behind a real candidate.
With Sanders he polls 5% with African Americans and that has not improved along with his overall poll numbers. If he can't connect with African Americans he won't win anything past Iowa and New Hampshire. Also he has zero party endorsements which historically have been better indicators of success than polling and he lacks money. So he is missing the key elements that made Obama a successful outside candidate
How exactly would Sanders, or anyone else for that matter, do that? The Oval Office does not get to decide who gets taxed. That is decided in Congress. Because of the belligerence that exists in Congress it is ever difficult for a president to affect change from the Oval Office. The only way the presidency could have that type of impact is if the electorate sends a bunch of like-minded people to Congress. Thanks to gerrymandering and the intellectual laziness of the average American that is pretty well impossible. The system is setup to send the same personalities and mindsets to Washington, making change like you suggest almost impossible. To raise taxes on the rich you need a Bernie Sanders to drop the bill in the hopper, another 218 Bernie Sanders in the House to read and pass the legislation, another 60 in the Senate to approve and forward the bill on, and Bernie Sanders in the White House to sign it into law. Never going to happen in this country.
I will just focus on this bit as the rest of it is pretty much irrelevant, and was already answered in my previous post. The rest of my post is based very much on Charles Murray's excellent book, "Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960-2010 (http://www.amazon.ca/Coming-Apart-St.../dp/030745343X). I highly recommend all to read it. It speaks very directly to some of the coming issues for the USA. He focuses on white America in order to eliminate race from the discussion (some of Murray's previous work focused on black inner-city America, and was accused falsely of racism).
If you follow American culture, and its radical change over the past 10-30 years, you will note that America has been dividing into two tribes, basically a split right down the middle of the middle class. The upper middle class is wealthier, powerful, and more isolated from the rest of America than ever before. They are the force behind the increasing productivity of Silicon Valley, and they form most of America's political leadership. Murray estimates that this class is around 15-20%. They have stable families, decent jobs, and tend to live among their own.
The other tribe, probably 40-50% of America, has gone the other way. In a big way. Single-motherhood, dead-beat dads, low rate of employment (interestingly, Murray states that this is voluntarily - ie. people often choose not to work) and increasingly awful levels of education.
This tribe is falling further and further behind. Politically, they are opposed to immigration. They, somewhat rightfully see, immigration as a means for American corporate oligarchs to decrease the price of their labour. They want a strong military, partially for employment reasons (the military used to be one of the best means for social mobility) and also because they perceive America as weak.
Most importantly, they see the American government (all branches) of being incapable and unwilling of changing any of that. They see government as ineffective, and completely unwilling to listen or change priorities on their behalf.
This perception is the source of Trump and Sander's popularity.
Sanders does seem to be building momentum. Would love to see him snatch the coronation (er, nomination) from Clinton.
EDIT: Not sure why Sanders is being lumped in with Trump. Sanders, although not a Washington insider like Clinton, is a perfectly credible candidate.
I think Sanders would be be a wonderful president if he was able to do anything. Congress is nothing but roadblocks subject to the special interest. Nothing will get reformed.
I don't know if Trump wants to be president, or if he just wants to get into a debate with Clinton who he I believe used to be a supporter of.
I think that the American system of politics that has had cracks has finally completely broken.
The fact that Trump has gotten this far has shown it. On the positive side Clinton who is as much of a political machine as there is, is losing support rapidly as people look for an alternative to the same old thing.
Whether this race and trump and Sanders can keep people engaged, which is a positive thing is another question.
Remember the NFL is starting up soon.
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It's worth pointing out that, from 30,000 feet, the difference between the United States and Canada is a donut shop.
Maybe when looking at ethnicity demographics and language.
Other than that, we are ideologically very different. A group like the NDP would have very little support in the US. We are, from 30,000 ft (or 10,000 m), a very socialist nation. The US as whole doesn't see the difference between socialism and communism and any mention of anything leaning that way gets you labelled a soviet.
