Federal Election Polling Thread

[octothorp]

Nm.

[PeteMoss]

Still too early to really matter, but certainly looks like the Cons are falling. What could they do to turn the tide?

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Still too early to really matter, but certainly looks like the Cons are falling. What could they do to turn the tide?

get a new leader?

[GirlySports]

oops i posted poll numbers in the other thread yesterday.

I mentioned over there that I can't see the Conservatives winning anymore because they are so different then the leading party (and even different than the Liberals) they can't pull votes away any longer.

Liberals are 3rd but still have a small chance to take votes away from the NDP.

[Nehkara]

New EKOS poll:





As you can see, there are significant gains for the NDP and Liberals in this poll compared to previous polling by EKOS.

A potential reason why EKOS shows a less significant shift than the Forum poll from yesterday is that the EKOS poll was performed from August 19-25 whereas the Forum poll was August 23-24.

It will be interesting to see what the polls show next week when we get data from after August 25th.

[Nehkara]

I was mistaken yesterday, the Nanos poll doesn't come out until Tuesday. It's unlikely to show a significant shift as it is a 4 week rolling poll and thus not as sensitive to rapid shifts in opinion.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

http://abacusdata.ca/race-narrows-as-ndp-support-dips/

Just to muddy the waters, Abacus has new horse race numbers this morning showing a much tighter race:
NDP:31
CPC:30
Liberal: 28

That's a 4 point drop for the NDP from the last Abacus survey. The other two rose a bit, but within the margin of error.

[FlamesAddiction]

The NDP seemed to have plateaued, while it looks like many soft conservatives may be going to the Liberals. Still a long time until the election, but the recent trajectories suggest it could still be anyone's election to win.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Also, Innovative Research shows pretty much the same thing:

NDP: 32
CPC: 30
Liberal: 27

There is a lot to chew on in their numbers--the horse race findings are just one small part. I've linked to their results here, but be warned--it's a 92 page PDF.

Innovative Research

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

The NDP seemed to have plateaued, while it looks like many soft conservatives may be going to the Liberals. Still a long time until the election, but the recent trajectories suggest it could still be anyone's election to win.

Definitely agree that it's still anyone's election. The last numbers are really showing what the polls have shown for a while: the race is close, and the NDP may have a narrow lead.

Regionally, the Abacus numbers look a bit worse for the NDP, as they are third in Ontario; but regional samples (being smaller) will tend to show more fluctuation.

Overall, I do kind of get the sense of an electorate that hasn't really settled on a choice yet. A lot of voters who want change are still making up their minds about which opposition party should get their vote. A lot of "soft" conservatives, who might be unhappy with the current government, but not convinced by the NDP or liberals, haven't yet landed on their choice either.

[PeteMoss]

Full Ontario numbers tend to be fairly useless since more than most provinces they are definite voting splits. NDP or Liberals typically wins the North (which has few seats), the Liberals typically own Toronto itself (which has a boatload of seats) and Conservatives owns the rural seats in Central/Southern Ontario.

Like Lubicon above says - its those other Ontario seats that typically win the election. They usually end up swaying to the winning party (Liberals typically do well, but the Cons won most of them last election).

[Vulcan]

Despite the polls giving them a chance, I don't see the Liberals winning.

The NDP have a base in Quebec with possibilities in BC and Ontario. At one time watching the election from out west, whoever got Quebec won the election. Ontario split their ridings and we were just an afterthought. It's not quite that way now but still getting Quebec is big.

The CPC have the Prairies and possibilities in Ontario and BC.

The Liberals have the Maritimes, which is too small to make a difference, with possibilities in Ontario. The Liberals just don't have enough of a base.

[Parallex]

Nanos weekly poll is out. NDP in first, Liberals in second, Tories in third... but all three are within the MOE.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...015-08-28E.pdf

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Despite the polls giving them a chance, I don't see the Liberals winning.

The NDP have a base in Quebec with possibilities in BC and Ontario. At one time watching the election from out west, whoever got Quebec won the election. Ontario split their ridings and we were just an afterthought. It's not quite that way now but still getting Quebec is big.

The CPC have the Prairies and possibilities in Ontario and BC.

The Liberals have the Maritimes, which is too small to make a difference, with possibilities in Ontario. The Liberals just don't have enough of a base.

Yeah, Liberal distribution isn't great, they probably need about 35% or more to actually win the election... winning 32-31-30 isn't going to cut it. Both the Conservatives or NDP on the other hand could legitimately win with about 31%, without even winning the popular vote. Hell, a situation where the NDP or CPC finish third in popular vote but win the election isn't out of the question.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Nanos weekly poll is out. NDP in first, Liberals in second, Tories in third... but all three are within the MOE.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...015-08-28E.pdf

As others have noted, the results from Nanos are a four week rolling average so there isn't as much of a fluctuation as other polls have shown in results lately.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Despite the polls giving them a chance, I don't see the Liberals winning.

The NDP have a base in Quebec with possibilities in BC and Ontario. At one time watching the election from out west, whoever got Quebec won the election. Ontario split their ridings and we were just an afterthought. It's not quite that way now but still getting Quebec is big.

The CPC have the Prairies and possibilities in Ontario and BC.

The Liberals have the Maritimes, which is too small to make a difference, with possibilities in Ontario. The Liberals just don't have enough of a base.

The only caveat to that is if the Conservatives continue to slip in the polls and their voters in Ontario and BC go Liberal in an attempt to block an NDP government.

[Knut]

There are quite a few in my circle here in Calgary that would likely do that too. These include hardcore conservative voters in the oil patch.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by rubecube

The only caveat to that is if the Conservatives continue to slip in the polls and their voters in Ontario and BC go Liberal in an attempt to block an NDP government.

I will be voting strategically for the first time ever.
In my riding in greater Montreal area, the Libs and NDP are in a real close battle. As you have already likely assumed, I would normally vote CPC, but my vote will go to the Libs to help elect one less NDP nationally as opposed to the Libs actually forming a government.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Nanos weekly poll is out. NDP in first, Liberals in second, Tories in third... but all three are within the MOE.

http://www.nanosresearch.com/library...015-08-28E.pdf

Bad news for CPC - they are at a 12 month low in 'would consider' @ 37.5%

[FlamesAddiction]

My riding is almost certainly going to be Conservative again as they traditionally are. The current MP (Erin O'Toole) is very popular and is the Minister of Veteran's Affairs. This is a riding that stuck with the CPC even after Bev Oda's controversies. I can't see them switching now.

I'll still go and vote based on my beliefs, but I don't feel the stakes as much as many of the people in other ridings.