US Economy is Bad

[gladaki]

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/8/10/To-...ry-Berman.aspx

What you guys think about it ? If interest rates remain low for long time in US then I dont think it will be going up anytime soon in canada

[Daradon]

China is apparently worse than the government is letting on too.

But yes, I don't see a quick rebound in Canada, especially since oil just took another dive. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

Not that I really care about oil prices anymore. We gotta get off dino fuel. It's our own damn fault for not diversifying the economy by now. Thanks Harper. (yes I realize we shoulda started before him too, but he certainly made it a lot worse)

It's bad for the long term health of the economy, and deadly to the health of the planet.

Sorry for the rant. Yes, the economy is bad, and it's not going to get better soon.

[Slava]

Well he's cherry-picking data and making it seem like that is the way to judge the economy. Strange that he doesn't talk about unemployment figures or GDP (other than him making the claim that if this other thing happened than here is where we would be) or new home starts or one of the other major indicators in the stock market.

Sure, he could right, and maybe he is. But to deny that the US economy is healthy at this point is just a forecast gone awry. There have been pundits making that kind of claim since about 2010 (remember the talk of the double-dip recession?) and I get the impression that some guys want to make a name for themselves being the first to call it.

On another note, the US will be raising rates; almost surely before Canada. We have our own issues at home, so rate increases here are going to be behind that "schedule" most likely. One of the issues is in fact China. Their devaluation yesterday is another piece of bad news for us here in Canada.

[peter12]

The US employment rate is an official 5.4% but experts estimate that if you include people who have given up looking for work or who have been forced to take minimal part-time work in the USA, then the number would rise to over 10.5%. There is no economic recovery in the US.

Following the bailouts of 2008, a new super elite of 0.1% earners was created. Everyone else suffered.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by peter12

The US employment rate is an official 5.4% but experts estimate that if you include people who have given up looking for work or who have been forced to take minimal part-time work in the USA, then the number would rise to over 10.5%. There is no economic recovery in the US.

Following the bailouts of 2008, a new super elite of 0.1% earners was created. Everyone else suffered.

Correct, the rate of 'under employed' people in the US, basically anyone working less hours than they could/would like to, is over 11%.

That's a massive drag on a consumer economy.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Correct, the rate of 'under employed' people in the US, basically anyone working less hours than they could/would like to, is over 11%.

That's a massive drag on a consumer economy.

And a correction will inevitably come. People don't seem to understand how incredibly volatile and strangely stagnant the current competitive global economy is, and how badly a hit the middle class is taking right now.

[Caged Great]

It seems like the wealth has gotten too concentrated with the top 1%, and it's starting to have a dire effect on the overall health of the global economy. Nobody has any money to spend anywhere and nobody to sell to. Without some re-distribution of the wealth, there will continue to be issues.

[Roof-Daddy]

Well, I volunteer to have some of the wealth re-distributed to me if it will help.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by peter12

And a correction will inevitably come. People don't seem to understand how incredibly volatile and strangely stagnant the current competitive global economy is, and how badly a hit the middle class is taking right now.

Meh, in canada we'll just continue to lower interest rates.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

It seems like the wealth has gotten too concentrated with the top 1%, and it's starting to have a dire effect on the overall health of the global economy. Nobody has any money to spend anywhere and nobody to sell to. Without some re-distribution of the wealth, there will continue to be issues.

It's going to trickle down, just you wait! These things take time, just trust in our corporate masters.

All kidding aside, I've often thought of the current model as an upside down pyramid. Eventually it falls down under it's own weight, it's inevitable. It's okay though, the rich will be okay, it's just the plebs that will continually be screwed over. When you have massive cash reserves, you can weather a lot of storms. Stupid plebs, why didn't they think of that? Hooray for the plutocracy!

[Sylvanfan]

Is there any room for a middle class in a global economy? With communication and automation where it is today, I just don't see the ability for any economy to support a large number of blue collar type manufacturing jobs that pay that middle class type wage.

I know at my work it's been discussed quite intently that if we want to keep our employment numbers where they're at, we need to increase our revenues significantly, and to look at a completely different type of work, otherwise we're just fighting something that will kick our ass. For us to run a plant with our labour rates trying to do what was good to us for 30 years, and expect to employ a lot of people....we're kidding ourselves.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

It seems like the wealth has gotten too concentrated with the top 1%, and it's starting to have a dire effect on the overall health of the global economy.

There's isn't any doubt that in the tug of war between capital and labour, capital has yanked the rope right out of the hands of labour and is waving it triumphantly. Thomas Picketty has documented the dominance of capital, and its increasing concentration, in his groundbreaking book Capital in the Twenty-First Century.

Originally Posted by Caged Great

Nobody has any money to spend anywhere and nobody to sell to. Without some re-distribution of the wealth, there will continue to be issues.

Not only is capital concentrating in fewer hands, we are witnesses a steep rise in automation, and a matching decline in the requirements of labour. The drivers of those huge trucks up in Fort Mac who are being replaced by automatic trucks are just the beginning. We're approaching an era when a great portion of adults simply will not be needed by the economy. But as you note, who will buy things if half of the population isn't making money? Hopefully the captains of industry will realize they need customers to sell to.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Is there any room for a middle class in a global economy? With communication and automation where it is today, I just don't see the ability for any economy to support a large number of blue collar type manufacturing jobs that pay that middle class type wage.

The whole IT industry is largely middle class type wages, and look how much that has grown over the last 30 years.

I don't think middle class = blue collar has already changed quite a bit.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by peter12

The US employment rate is an official 5.4% but experts estimate that if you include people who have given up looking for work or who have been forced to take minimal part-time work in the USA, then the number would rise to over 10.5%. There is no economic recovery in the US.

Following the bailouts of 2008, a new super elite of 0.1% earners was created. Everyone else suffered.

Really? No recovery? What would have to happen for you to consider the multitude of indicators that there has been a recovery and actual growth since the recession?

Setting aside the unemployment figure (which frankly has been argued since the dawn of time about people not looking for work and people who have given up), what do you say about corporate profits? GDP? Corporate balance sheet strength? Seriously, almost any metric you want to look at has improved substantially since the depths of the recession and corresponding bailout. It might be easier for you to point out what hasn't improved, just to keep the list down to something manageable.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Is there any room for a middle class in a global economy? With communication and automation where it is today, I just don't see the ability for any economy to support a large number of blue collar type manufacturing jobs that pay that middle class type wage.

I know at my work it's been discussed quite intently that if we want to keep our employment numbers where they're at, we need to increase our revenues significantly, and to look at a completely different type of work, otherwise we're just fighting something that will kick our ass. For us to run a plant with our labour rates trying to do what was good to us for 30 years, and expect to employ a lot of people....we're kidding ourselves.

I don't know what industry you are in, but the standard model for capitalism right now failling due to jobs being lost to automation rather than to the traditional outsourcing of labour markets.

Jobs are now being 'lost' at an alarming rate instead of just being shifted due to capital.

This is a problem that needs to be addressed.

[peter12]

We are in a bit of a crunch demographically as well. Most Western countries have reproduction rates well below replacement. You are going to see significant effects of this within 50 years. Automated manufacturing and big data will eliminate many jobs from the lower half of the work force. It will also start to bite into traditionally upper class professions. I wouldn't want to be a doctor or a lawyer in 50 years.

As for the future economy, high IQs with technical mastery will do well, and so will their managers and marketing people. Secondary service entrepreneurs will also do well.

That is pretty utopian. There are a lot of things that could go wrong or change in the meantime obviously.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Slava

Really? No recovery? What would have to happen for you to consider the multitude of indicators that there has been a recovery and actual growth since the recession?

Setting aside the unemployment figure (which frankly has been argued since the dawn of time about people not looking for work and people who have given up), what do you say about corporate profits? GDP? Corporate balance sheet strength? Seriously, almost any metric you want to look at has improved substantially since the depths of the recession and corresponding bailout. It might be easier for you to point out what hasn't improved, just to keep the list down to something manageable.

So we are looking at a jobless recovery...? For the record, that is actually what I think it is.

[Locke]

The US Economy is bad...

[Caged Great]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

There's isn't any doubt that in the tug of war between capital and labour, capital has yanked the rope right out of the hands of labour and is waving it triumphantly. Thomas Picketty has documented the dominance of capital, and its increasing concentration, in his groundbreaking book Capital in the Twenty-First Century.



Not only is capital concentrating in fewer hands, we are witnesses a steep rise in automation, and a matching decline in the requirements of labour. The drivers of those huge trucks up in Fort Mac who are being replaced by automatic trucks are just the beginning. We're approaching an era when a great portion of adults simply will not be needed by the economy. But as you note, who will buy things if half of the population isn't making money? Hopefully the captains of industry will realize they need customers to sell to.

With more and more professions going by the way side due to automation, there will either have to be huge expanding areas of employment in different fields (say like the tech sector) or some sort of "post capitalist" society will have to form. An example would be the guaranteed income thing that was debated in Switzerland (Can't remember if they passed it or not).

Even manufacturing a lot of goods will go by the wayside if 3-D printing technology sees similar jumps in quality over the next 10 years.

Self driving vehicles will put tons of people out of work, from cabbies, to truck drivers of all kinds. Realistically, cashiers are not really going to be needed either and we're starting to see some of those jobs getting replaced by computers as well.

It will be interesting to see how things unfold over the next 10-20 years and how society will adapt.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by peter12

So we are looking at a jobless recovery...? For the record, that is actually what I think it is.

Well all I can say is that statistically more people are working in the US now than were before the recession. I don't know how you want to spin that into bad news, but I'm sure that you'll give it a shot.