[News] Patrick Kane being investigated for rape. UPD: DA announces no charges

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Passe La Puck

And your experience is anecdotal and worthless, the closest number people seem to agree on is 2-8% but that also includes wrongly identified (victim didn't know perp and the wrong one was identified).

Based on MBates' job, his experience is neither anecdotal nor worthless.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I'm not sure if that was intended to be a serious analogy or a joke... I'm pretty sure it's serious. If so, it fails at about 8 seconds in when it suggests, effectively, that you ask your partner, "hey, would you like some sex?"

I think this part may be a crux of the argument - one way or another, this communication should happen, even if it doesn't always need to be as blunt and explicit.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I dunno, his experience as related to date seems pretty anecdotal.

There are reasons to distrust the statistics, to some extent - what people are willing to answer to a survey question in this context and the demographics of people who are willing to provide certain answers must skew the results. But statisticians can account for those things.

I'd still be more comfortable relying on numbers if I knew what the process was, particularly when the source of those numbers generally wants them to produce a dramatic effect on the person hearing them.

Still, Makarov's numbers are the best information we have to go on. There's no explicit reason to suggest they're wrong. And even if they're off by a significant margin they're still alarming.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

Based on MBates' job, his experience is neither anecdotal nor worthless.

I disagree. In some instances you would be correct, but in this particular case he is still projecting an opinion from a gut feeling. Regardless of who he is or his expertise, an intuition of this sort will always be suspect because it is still falls within the limits of our fallible tendency to construct patterns from incidents.

In other words, MBates' has inferred that false rape allegations are relatively common, which would seem to contradict the available data. Without any actual data of his own to substantiate the claim, and drawing from potential biases that could also affect the validity of his claim, it is still no better than an anecdote.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I'm not sure if that was intended to be a serious analogy or a joke... I'm pretty sure it's serious. If so, it fails at about 8 seconds in when it suggests, effectively, that you ask your partner, "hey, would you like some sex?"

I suppose one could interpret the video that literally, but hopefully most people are sophisticated enough to recognise that the question "hey, would you like some sex?,"is not necessarily an actual question, but representative of the cues and feedback that we all experience when engaging in foreplay.

The video is clever and effective. If you are struggling over how you could possibly recognize consent from the complex nature of initiating sex, then you should probably not be having sex.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I suppose one could interpret the video that literally, but hopefully most people are sophisticated enough to recognise that the question "hey, would you like some sex?,"is not necessarily an actual question, but representative of the cues and feedback that we all experience when engaging in foreplay.

The video is clever and effective. If you are struggling over how you could possibly recognize consent from the complex nature of initiating sex, then you should probably not be having sex.

I think a problem is that some people can't read these, or read something that might seem like an invitation but likely isn't.

An example I would use is dancing at a club. The style of dance almost always involves some form of grinding and/or overtly sexual touching. A person purposely rubbing their crotch on your crotch is likely a good indication that you may be getting lucky in almost any other circumstance. But here, it's just dancing and it may or may not be an invitation.

Now, generally there are many steps between the dance floor and a suitable place for sex where more cues should take place. I'm not saying grinding is a green light, just that I can see where intimate settings like that can cause confusion for the socially inept. Even in a situation like this, Kane invites girl to his house after a night of dancing and she not only agrees but brings a friend. She might be thinking "I'll bring a friend to make sure nothing happens" he might be thinking "effing rights threewayyyyy".

The step taken that ends up with one person raping another, I have no idea how that train of thought actually enters one's head, and I suspect not even the rapists do (because I think most would agree in here that the rapist often doesn't view what they're doing as a problem). In the case of someone dancing provocatively with you all night and then agreeing to come back to your place and then winding up not wanting to go through with it for whatever reason, I can see where confusion and/or anger might set in. But I fail to see how anyone can think that the next logical step should be "do it anyways". It's like trying to understand what makes someone snap and shoot a bunch of strangers.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I suppose one could interpret the video that literally, but hopefully most people are sophisticated enough to recognise that the question "hey, would you like some sex?,"is not necessarily an actual question, but representative of the cues and feedback that we all experience when engaging in foreplay.

Right - in which case, the whole message of the video that this is just as obvious as not forcing tea down someone's throat is completely nullified.

The video is clever and effective. If you are struggling over how you could possibly recognize consent from the complex nature of initiating sex, then you should probably not be having sex.

I don't think anyone's struggling as to how they could possibly recognize consent, only trying to point out that there are realistic corner cases here where it may not be totally clear whether consent has been given or not - or more to the point, cases where two reasonable people who are involved in the same sex activity have different honestly held beliefs as to whether consent exists.

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

I don't think anyone's struggling as to how they could possibly recognize consent, only trying to point out that there are realistic corner cases here where it may not be totally clear whether consent has been given or not - or more to the point, cases where two reasonable people who are involved in the same sex activity have different honestly held beliefs as to whether consent exists.

Agreed but, in my view, the defence of honest but mistaken belief only arises very rarely: only in cases where the complainant is reacting to the sexual activity in a passive or ambiguous way rather than either actively participating or actively resisting. The only time that this might happen is when the complainant is asleep, afraid of the accused, engaging in BDSM activity, or severely intoxicated (and of course even in these circumstances the accused will have to satisfy the reasonable steps requirement in order for the defence to be available.)

In all other cases, not surprisingly, the complainant will either be actively participating or actively resisting the sexual activity and there simply will not be any room for mistake. The issue at trial in theses cases is factual (two totally inconsistent accounts of what happened: either active participation (consent) or active resistance (non-consent.)

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Makarov

The only time that this might happen is when the complainant is asleep, afraid of the accused, engaging in best type activity, or severely intoxicated (and of course even in these circumstances the accused will have to satisfy the reasonable steps requirement in order for the defence to be available.)

I'd suggest that issue of consent typically happen in the first sexual encounter between two people, and that there's a high incidence of intoxication in the first sexual encounter between two people.

If I were to give my children advice around sexual consent when they get older it would be to never have the sex with someone for the first time while intoxicated. However, that's probably not realistic.

[Makarov]

Just to be clear, my phone corrected BDSM activity to "best type" activity. Ugh.

[BACKCHECK!!!]

Originally Posted by Makarov

Just to be clear, my phone corrected BDSM activity to "best type" activity. Ugh.

Ummm... What's your phone doing later tonight?

[MBates]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I disagree. In some instances you would be correct, but in this particular case he is still projecting an opinion from a gut feeling. Regardless of who he is or his expertise, an intuition of this sort will always be suspect because it is still falls within the limits of our fallible tendency to construct patterns from incidents.

In other words, MBates' has inferred that false rape allegations are relatively common, which would seem to contradict the available data. Without any actual data of his own to substantiate the claim, and drawing from potential biases that could also affect the validity of his claim, it is still no better than an anecdote.

I gave one example of a very recent finding in a real Alberta case - published in the official court record - it is a substantiated case not an anecdote. I am sure I can be fairly criticized that this sample size of 1 is statistically insignificant but it is not an anecdote.

The other reference to the case I handled is an anecdote which I am not in a position to present evidence to prove here. So, it is by definition 'anecdotal.' What it is worth is hard to quantify objectively...which is really the problem with any anecdote. They may be compelling, they may be worse than worthless if they are wrong, and it is very difficult for the reader to assess.

I conceded as much to Makarov already.

That said, it is equally true that a big collection of individually dubious anecdotes do not make reliable statistics.

In any event, my intention was not to battle the stats. My statements (and overall points of my post) that apparently got lost include:

"The over-generalizations in this thread are both shocking and in my view part of an ongoing problem - not a solution.

Statistics about how often a woman makes a false claim or how often a pro athlete refuses to take "no" for an answer are completely meaningless to the actual human beings at the centre of this incident
...

There really is nothing to talk about here until some facts are reported...and even then...again speaking from experience...the "facts" don't exist until the verdict is rendered by a judge or jury (a.k.a. the trier of fact).."

It doesn't matter if only one in 10,000,000 complaints are false - if this is the one. It also is completely meaningless if Kane is a 'dirtbag' who has assaulted people before - if he did not assault this person.

Equally, it matters not how many 'gold-diggers' have abused court proceedings to get $$ from rich people if this is a true victim who has no ill motives.

I know it is a discussion forum...which I am currently participating in...I am not suggesting everyone needs to stop discussing. But even with the recent leak from a 'source' claiming what the allegations supposedly are there is unfortunately little of value to discuss.

To the extent the thread is discussing sexual assault law and issues of consent generally, my point is it is an incredibly unsettled area of law which in my view does a poor job of guiding anyone as to how to act and ensure you do not find yourself accused of a crime.

And those suggesting things like "be a gentleman" answer all of the issues are not willing to analyze real-world situations. The facts of the SCC case on auto-erotic asphyxiation and my now anecdotal suggestion that 50 Shades of Grey is popular for a reason belie the suggestion that the answers are all black and white (pardon the expression).

[Passe La Puck]

A single example is quite literally an anecdote...

[MBates]

Originally Posted by Passe La Puck

A single example is quite literally an anecdote...

It's actually pretty funny to me that we cannot even agree on what the term means...and a whole debate could erupt over it.

The word is Greek in origin meaning "things unpublished". The very nature of an anecdote being an unpublished story (often unverifiable hearsay) is what makes it's worth as evidence suspect.

I distinguished between the reported court case and my admitted anecdote precisely on that basis.

You be the judge!

[Nage Waza]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think a problem is that some people can't read these, or read something that might seem like an invitation but likely isn't.

I doubt it. I am pretty sure the typical rapist is very positive they are crossing lines. There is no invitation, I am unsure what you mean.

Originally Posted by MattyC

An example I would use is dancing at a club. The style of dance almost always involves some form of grinding and/or overtly sexual touching. A person purposely rubbing their crotch on your crotch is likely a good indication that you may be getting lucky in almost any other circumstance. But here, it's just dancing and it may or may not be an invitation.

Uh, gross?

Originally Posted by MattyC

Now, generally there are many steps between the dance floor and a suitable place for sex where more cues should take place. I'm not saying grinding is a green light, just that I can see where intimate settings like that can cause confusion for the socially inept. Even in a situation like this, Kane invites girl to his house after a night of dancing and she not only agrees but brings a friend. She might be thinking "I'll bring a friend to make sure nothing happens" he might be thinking "effing rights threewayyyyy".

He is certainly thinking he hopes he gets lucky, but if she refuses him, he knows he is out of luck.

There is NO connection between behaviour on a dance floor in a bar and what happens after the bar. Consent is not obtained while dancing via an act that is not sex.

Originally Posted by MattyC

The step taken that ends up with one person raping another, I have no idea how that train of thought actually enters one's head, and I suspect not even the rapists do (because I think most would agree in here that the rapist often doesn't view what they're doing as a problem). In the case of someone dancing provocatively with you all night and then agreeing to come back to your place and then winding up not wanting to go through with it for whatever reason, I can see where confusion and/or anger might set in. But I fail to see how anyone can think that the next logical step should be "do it anyways". It's like trying to understand what makes someone snap and shoot a bunch of strangers.

I am unsure why you are trying to walk someone through how a rape can take place by accident? A rape is on purpose, the rapist is aware, they simply are not taking no as an answer for an assortment of reasons.

I doubt many people support the fact that rapists simply are misunderstood.

Can we please stop trying to justify how someone can be an accidental rapist?

[JiriHrdina]

I think you are misunderstanding his point.
I would agree that many rapists don't perceive as what they are doing as rape.
Which is one of the biggest problems.

[Passe La Puck]

Originally Posted by MBates

It's actually pretty funny to me that we cannot even agree on what the term means...and a whole debate could erupt over it.



The word is Greek in origin meaning "things unpublished". The very nature of an anecdote being an unpublished story (often unverifiable hearsay) is what makes it's worth as evidence suspect.



I distinguished between the reported court case and my admitted anecdote precisely on that basis.



You be the judge!

We of course aren't speaking Greek and the English definition also includes factual stories. When discussing statistics which is what we were doing it specifically refers to single instances, possibly cherry picked, and do not represent statistically meaningful information.

Specifically and to avoid nit picking this tangent you brought up one single case to counter mountains of statistics that show that false rape accusations are incredibly rare.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Nage Waza

I doubt it. I am pretty sure the typical rapist is very positive they are crossing lines. There is no invitation, I am unsure what you mean.

Uh, gross?
He is certainly thinking he hopes he gets lucky, but if she refuses him, he knows he is out of luck.

There is NO connection between behaviour on a dance floor in a bar and what happens after the bar. Consent is not obtained while dancing via an act that is not sex.

I am unsure why you are trying to walk someone through how a rape can take place by accident? A rape is on purpose, the rapist is aware, they simply are not taking no as an answer for an assortment of reasons.

I doubt many people support the fact that rapists simply are misunderstood.

Can we please stop trying to justify how someone can be an accidental rapist?

I'm not sure where I've justified anything. I never claimed anything like rapists being misunderstood. If you read any of the Cosby stuff it's pretty clear what he was doing was not wrong in his mind, and still isnt. That is absolutely not even god damn close to a justification for anything that he did or does. If a someone drugs another person and rapes them, or rapes a barely concious person, there is no "they aren't taking no for an answer", they haven't given that person the opportunity to give an answer. Or, (like my post was mostly referring to) thinks that earlier cues (like those on the dance floor or elsewhere) were already the go ahead.

At no point did I say that those cues are the go ahead and that if that's what's happening anything is fair game. Nor did I refer to anything as accidental. In fact I very clearly say in the post you quoted that I have no idea how someone can make the leap from a person changing their mind to "well, I'm going for this anyway."

[MBates]

Originally Posted by Passe La Puck

We of course aren't speaking Greek and the English definition also includes factual stories. When discussing statistics which is what we were doing it specifically refers to single instances, possibly cherry picked, and do not represent statistically meaningful information.

Specifically and to avoid nit picking this tangent you brought up one single case to counter mountains of statistics that show that false rape accusations are incredibly rare.

I have conceded the limits of my examples...you win...ignore my view.

However, I went looking for these mountains you speak of...and what I found is that the only apparent consensus is how difficult it is to get reliable stats (which ironically is why I continue to maintain the stats are useless to tell us anything about whether Kane did anything wrong or not).

The statscan report linked to by Makarov gets its numbers from a self-report victim survey (could not be any more anecdotal than that).

The source cited which makes an 'estimate' of 2-8 percent in the document itself acknowledges there is no way of knowing how many false reports are made.

But lest anyone think I am some evil defence lawyer just out to attack victims, but who cannot produce meaningless stats of my own, consider the Parliamentary Joint Committee Report, "For the Sake of the Children" citing highly respected Professor Nick Bala (who at last count has apparently been cited 29 times by the Supreme Court of Canada)

http://www.parl.gc.ca/HousePublicati...e=159#chapter5

In a paper submitted to the Committee in June 1998, Professor Nick Bala reviewed the difficulties inherent in researching false allegations of abuse.81 The proportion of abuse allegations that are false varies over time and is exceedingly difficult to quantify in a useful way

The committee report did note a specific problem with false sexual abuse allegations in divorce proceedings.

The problem of false allegations during divorce proceedings was extensive in Manitoba, as it was acknowledged by the CEO of the Child and Family Services in Manitoba that 25% of all investigations arose during divorce proceedings. In June of 1996, executive at Winnipeg CFS also admitted that only 15% of allegations made in divorce cases were likely true. (Meeting #22)

Heidi Polowin, Director of Legal Services for the Children's Aid Society (CAS) of Ottawa-Carleton gave the Committee the "rough statistic" that three of every five cases of alleged abuse the CAS investigates involve custody and access, and of those three, two are found to be unsubstantiated. Ms. Polowin noted that reports to the CAS are made by neighours, doctors, teachers, and other relatives, as well as parents, and she was careful to note that "unsubstantiated" does not necessarily mean that an allegation is false: it means that the CAS was unable to verify the claim for any one of a variety of reasons.

If you prefer something less parliamentary, consider this article by columnist Christie Blatchford:

http://injusticebusters.org/index.htm/Crying_Wolf.htm

What does occur with both alarming regularity and frequency is the false allegation.

The numbers for sexual assault alone are sobering.

Ontario-wide, about 5.7% of all sexual assault allegations are demonstrably false.

In the approximately four and a half years since the province made record-keeping of violent crime mandatory, 2,233 women (this includes a small number of men) out of 39,223 sex-related complainants have lied, said Ontario Provincial Police Detective-Sergeant Darryl Doak.

In the 33 months British Columbia has been keeping the same statistics using the same computer program -- police forces in all provinces use the Violent Criminal Linkage Analysis System, or VICLAS, but only Ontario must -- proven false allegations of sexual assault are running 6.7% of the total, or 986 of 14,586 cases.

That translates to about 41 Ontario women, and 29 in B.C., each and every month falsely cloaking themselves in the most sacred of robes, those belonging to the female victim of intimate sexual violence.

And these numbers represent bare minimums, because both Ontario and B.C. have adopted strict definitions of what comprises a false allegation.

Unfounded complaints, where police determine there was no crime but also that the victim did not intend to mislead investigators, are not tracked at all.

And in those cases where an investigator suspects the victim is lying, but cannot prove it and she does not recant, the assaults are counted as genuine on the VICLAS books. Only another police officer, seeking information either on an offender or a victim in another case, would ever see his predecessor's full notes and get a whiff that the original complaint might not have been legitimate.

Indeed, at the Toronto Police Headquarters-based sexual assault squad, which handles only those major incidents where the alleged attackers are unknown to the victim (where they are identified, the investigations are handled at the divisional level), of 232 cases last year, at least 30% -- or 69 allegations -- were bogus.

Are these stats accurate? Probably no more than others. Are they in any way relevant to assess the validity of the allegation against Kane...or any allegation?

100% nope (unless Kane's accuser is one of the documented liars...but let's not complicate this any more).

There's a stat you can actually rely on.

[OutOfTheCube]

I feel like this thread could be moved to off-topic as it is no longer about hockey or Patrick Kane or the incident in question.