Federal Politics 2015 Thread

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

Harper's disregard for democracy and our institutions knows no bounds. Basically because he doesn't want to go through constitutional reforms and can't do what he wants with the Senate, he has decided to do nothing. http://globalnews.ca/news/2130231/is...onstitutional/

Of course maybe he's protecting us from his poor appointment selections in the first place. He has a terrible track record of appointees so maybe the plan here is not to make any, thereby saving the embarrassing press conferences that might follow?

lol, there's the full-on partisan rhetoric I've come to expect and enjoy.

I'm curious to know if you would feel the same way if the NDP won the election and similarly refused to name senators given their party believes it should be abolished? At any rate, this certainly is no more ridiculous than Trudeau's "pretend they aren't Liberals" stunt.

It is a curious take on Senate reform though. Also, an empty gesture unless Harper wins the upcoming election given his moratorium (which has already been in place for over two years) can't exist beyond that point. Though if he follows through and doesn't fill those vacancies to establish a totally dominant position in the Red Chamber ahead of the election, that would certainly be a surprise to me.

[PsYcNeT]

Wait, has this thread twisted so much in the last month that people honestly believe Slava is a hardline NDP supporter?

Jesus christ.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Wait, has this thread twisted so much in the last month that people honestly believe Slava is a hardline NDP supporter?

Jesus christ.

If you aren't with us, you are with the terrorists.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Wait, has this thread twisted so much in the last month that people honestly believe Slava is a hardline NDP supporter?

Jesus christ.

Haha, that's awesome. Basically when guys on the left think I'm too far right and people on the right think I'm too far left I figure I am right about where I should be.

[killer_carlson]

I think the situation Slava is in re: characterizations will be the first of many this election.

There are long time Conservatives who see little "small c conservative" with Harper. With that and some of his strong arm tactics that dont sit well, these voters are up for grabs.

Then you have long time Liberals who are thoroughly disappointed with Trudeau now that Trudeau has had a chance to be in the spotlight. They may like some policy that the party has put out, but seeing Trudeau fumble interview after interview and double talk himself into corners he cant escape have raised doubt. Coupled with Trudeau's tactic of undermining his own statements on democratic reform (open nominations anyone?) and these Liberal voters are looking for an alternative.

As a result, I think you'll see an election where people are more willing to look at alternatives federally than they have before. The NDP is now in the mix in ridings that they never have been before. The NDP have limited brain farts while the other two parties continue (with Trudeau and Pollivere leading the pack) to trip on their own feet.



i'll admit that i'm very intrigued by Trudeau's refusal to even consider a coalition with the NDP. More surprisingly was the NDP's high profile MP flat out saying they are open to it and will do it in a minority government situation. I have to wonder if the party insiders are willing to let Trudeau run with his quips and flair to see if he can pull it off, but that he's done if they don't win. Trudeau isn't interested in a coalition with the NDP because he won't be leader and will be shuffled away from anything important as a Minister if he is the minority partner in a coalition.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

i'll admit that i'm very intrigued by Trudeau's refusal to even consider a coalition with the NDP.

Problem for the Liberals is that they are direct competitors with the NDP for a heck of a lot of their vote. If they put Mulcair in the PM seat and prop up the government they legitimize the NDP. They have been preaching that voting NDP is a wasted vote for a long time now. I would suspect that given the choice the Liberal Party would rather fight Harper as PM and remain a viable replacement option than they would support Mulcair as PM and render themselves irrelevant.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by PsYcNeT

Wait, has this thread twisted so much in the last month that people honestly believe Slava is a hardline NDP supporter?

Jesus christ.

No. It is only that your reading comprehension abilities are, as usual, dramatically poor.

Slava has consistently taken the worst possible view of the right-most party, pretty much without fail, for as long as he has been a member here. You are the one assuming that an accusation of partisanship against the right-most party means I am implying he is therefore a "hardline supporter" of the left-most party. In truth, I view Slava as little more than an opportunist who doesn't really seem to stand for anything.

I used the NDP in my challenge for an obvious reason. So obvious that even you should have been able to figure it out: They don't support the Senate, and it is questionable whether Mulcair would name senators himself were he to become PM. So the question becomes, is Slava so annoyed by this announcement because it represents a "disregard for democracy", or is it just because the Conservatives did it?

And lets not pretend that this is a one-party thing historically, either. The Liberals under Martin deliberately left several of Alberta's Senate seats unfilled - until right before he was about to get turfed.

[LChoy]

Wondering with the polls showing NDP and Cons neck and neck, how come we aren't seeing attack ads targeting the NDP from the Cons? Seems like overkill now to keep seeing the "He's just not ready" ads

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Lchoy

Wondering with the polls showing NDP and Cons neck and neck, how come we aren't seeing attack ads targeting the NDP from the Cons? Seems like overkill now to keep seeing the "He's just not ready" ads

Maybe they are hoping that by continuing to crush the Liberals, that the remaining diehards will switch to supporting the Conservatives rather than go to the NDP.

I think a lot of core NDP supporters are democratic socialists to the grave and nothing will change that. You may convince a few casual supporters and dissenting left leaning Liberals that currently support the NDP to strategically vote for the Liberals, but are unlikely to ever convince them to swing all the way to the CPC. If the Conservatives start targeting the NDP, they probably stand more of a chance of inadvertently strengthening the Liberals and would be just playing political campaign "whack-a-mole".

If the Conservative want to win and especially if they want any chance at a majority, I think their best bet in to try and lure remaining Liberal supporters to their cause rather than trying to convince people who have swung to the NDP that they should either go back to the Liberals or make a huge ideological leap by voting for the Conservatives.

I hope that makes sense. I feel like this post is all over the place (I hate Mondays).

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

No. It is only that your reading comprehension abilities are, as usual, dramatically poor.

Slava has consistently taken the worst possible view of the right-most party, pretty much without fail, for as long as he has been a member here. You are the one assuming that an accusation of partisanship against the right-most party means I am implying he is therefore a "hardline supporter" of the left-most party. In truth, I view Slava as little more than an opportunist who doesn't really seem to stand for anything.

I used the NDP in my challenge for an obvious reason. So obvious that even you should have been able to figure it out: They don't support the Senate, and it is questionable whether Mulcair would name senators himself were he to become PM. So the question becomes, is Slava so annoyed by this announcement because it represents a "disregard for democracy", or is it just because the Conservatives did it?

And lets not pretend that this is a one-party thing historically, either. The Liberals under Martin deliberately left several of Alberta's Senate seats unfilled - until right before he was about to get turfed.

I'm an opportunist? What opportunities would you say I've been capitalising on? As usual your partisanship just blinds you to the points where I agree with you and that parties you support and you focus on the places where we disagree.

This is absolutely a one party thing. Its the ideology of Harper blindly charting a course for the senate. He has shown that he is unwilling to build a consensus here and doesn't want to negotiate on anything; so rather than consider trying to build a unified idea of senate reform he is charging ahead and saying "if we aren't going to do what I think should happen, then I will do nothing". No other party has taken that stance.

[killer_carlson]

Eve Adams loses her nomination, despite Trudeau high profile photo ops and back room trickery in timing of nomination. Voters cannot be taken for granted like they were treated in this riding, historically a Liberal stronghold.

Score one for democracy. I also see it as a sign that the Liberal Party, as a party, is not dead. Trudeau sinks their shot of winning this election, but long term their members in this ridign demonstrated a backbone and willingness to take a stand on principle.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by MattyC

If there is anyone that would use Mulcair thinking Alex was a guy and not a girl, and/or the fact that he pronounced the name of a town wrong, as a reason to not vote for them, I sincerely hope they stay home on election day. Who f***ing cares? What does it have to do with anything?

I can give people the corporate tax rate, he should have known it.

Couldn't agree more. Peoples' tendency to treat this all like a big game where one party scores points against the other is the reason I have so much trouble participating in the discourse. It's nearly impossible to have a conversation about anything that matters - and it's getting worse. More like the USA all the time. Even on here, where the discussion is at least frequently substantive (and appreciated reading as a result), some people cannot seem to help themselves from shameless, transparent posturing.

Honestly, I don't even care about the corporate tax rate thing - sure, it's important, but it's still a "gotcha". Does he need to have that information on the tip of his tongue? No, open up the front of any annotated Tax Act and boom, there's a table with all the provincial and combined corporate rates.

The real issue is what his party proposes in terms of tax policy measures, and what the effects of those will be on the country. Many of which I suspect will have potentially catastrophic implications given the party's historical fiscal platform (maybe they'll moderate a bit now that they have a shot?) But I guess that's just not as much fun for the scores of non-journalists who cover politics.

On a slightly sunnier note, friend of mine who moved here for work a few years ago won the Liberal nomination for his home riding.

http://www.ngnews.ca/News/Local/2015...Central-Nova/1

All around great guy and well deserved.

[automaton 3]

Originally Posted by Lchoy

Wondering with the polls showing NDP and Cons neck and neck, how come we aren't seeing attack ads targeting the NDP from the Cons? Seems like overkill now to keep seeing the "He's just not ready" ads

My guess is the ads are lined up but they are keeping their powder dry until they can be released with maximum effect, likely a few weeks before the vote.

I have no idea who to vote for this time, similar to the last provincial election.

Really tired of the conservatives but don't like the alternatives either.

[Jacks]

There was a story yesterday that at the riding level the CPC holds a massive fundraising advantage, even more than at the party level. There was also a story last week that the NDP is in real trouble in Quebec when it comes to fundraising, some of the ridings have less than $15,000 in assets. I'm thinking that this may expain further why the Tories aren't going after the NDP. The Libs may be beaten down but they have plenty of cash (or credit) to fight an extended writ period. While the NDP may be riding high they will run out of money pretty quickly, especially at the riding level. Before anyone starts to tell me that money didn't hurt the NDP in Alberta keep in mind that there is no split on the right federally, the split is on the left.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

There was a story yesterday that at the riding level the CPC holds a massive fundraising advantage, even more than at the party level. There was also a story last week that the NDP is in real trouble in Quebec when it comes to fundraising, some of the ridings have less than $15,000 in assets. I'm thinking that this may expain further why the Tories aren't going after the NDP. The Libs may be beaten down but they have plenty of cash (or credit) to fight an extended writ period. While the NDP may be riding high they will run out of money pretty quickly, especially at the riding level. Before anyone starts to tell me that money didn't hurt the NDP in Alberta keep in mind that there is no split on the right federally, the split is on the left.

That's why the election gets called early and for a longer campaign period. Harper has the most money and if he calls the election to allow for a longer period they can outspend their opponents more. The NDP won a lot of seats without spending a dime last time around, but to keep those seats costs money. I expect the election to be tighter than people think at this point because the Liberals aren't cratering; they're 3-4 points behind and that's hardly insurmountable.

There is a vote split, but that can also be dealt with pretty fast. Plenty of people will vote strategically and if they think they can knock of a CPC MP somewhere with a clear front-runner that vote can galvanize. We've seen it before both provincially and federally and I'm sure that has to be a worry for the CPC in some areas.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

I suspect the reason why at this stage you'd want to beat up the liberals rather than NDP is that the Liberals are, for both of the other parties, a source of potential defectors. You're not going to persuade many NDP supporters to stop supporting the NDP and come over to the Conservative side, or vice versa. However, the Liberal voter (or undecided voter who could be a liberal voter) will fall one way or the other. Once the liberal support base has been eroded and you've pillaged your share of former Liberal voters (assuming the attack ads work), there is a further exodus of support based on a desire to vote for a party that has a better chance to form government.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Jacks

There was a story yesterday that at the riding level the CPC holds a massive fundraising advantage, even more than at the party level. There was also a story last week that the NDP is in real trouble in Quebec when it comes to fundraising, some of the ridings have less than $15,000 in assets. I'm thinking that this may expain further why the Tories aren't going after the NDP. The Libs may be beaten down but they have plenty of cash (or credit) to fight an extended writ period. While the NDP may be riding high they will run out of money pretty quickly, especially at the riding level. Before anyone starts to tell me that money didn't hurt the NDP in Alberta keep in mind that there is no split on the right federally, the split is on the left.

If that's the case wouldn't you go after the NDP now and either have them run out of money early or get pummeled?

I suspect they are just going after Trudeau now is because they see him as vulnerable and initially to avoid him building momentum.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Lchoy

Wondering with the polls showing NDP and Cons neck and neck, how come we aren't seeing attack ads targeting the NDP from the Cons? Seems like overkill now to keep seeing the "He's just not ready" ads

I've been wondering the same thing. My best guess at this point is that it's easier and more effective to fight the war one enemy at a time instead of on two fronts.

First, go after the Liberals even if it means pushing a bunch of them to the NDP. Don't stop until you think they are sufficiently buried.

Second, take the fight to the NDP and try to bring the mass of rightish NDP supporters over to your side. I don't think we'd see this until into the Fall.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

If that's the case wouldn't you go after the NDP now and either have them run out of money early or get pummeled?

I suspect they are just going after Trudeau now is because they see him as vulnerable and initially to avoid him building momentum.

NDP are going to run out of money either way.

The Tories and NDP don't directly compete for voters, the Tories need to pull 5-10% of the swing voters that they share with the Liberals. A side benefit is that the weaker the Liberals are the more they will attack the NDP to try and keep their support, a strong Liberal Party will almost exclusively attack the Tories. I suspect the plan is to keep pounding on the Liberals and have them do the dirty work attacking the NDP. Once the election is well underway the NDP will run out of money and the Liberals should recover a bit.

My opinion is that the path to government is:
- The NDP loses a bunch of seats in Quebec to the Bloc and Liberals. The Tories can easily get 12+ seats if the NDP don't do well.
- Retain a large chunk of Ontario with a Lib/NDP split.
- Retain the majority of the Prairies.
- Hope like hell they don't get killed in BC.
- The Maritimes are pretty much a write off.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Jacks

My opinion is that the path to government is:
- The NDP loses a bunch of seats in Quebec to the Bloc and Liberals. The Tories can easily get 12+ seats if the NDP don't do well.
- Retain a large chunk of Ontario with a Lib/NDP split.
- Retain the majority of the Prairies.
- Hope like hell they don't get killed in BC.
- The Maritimes are pretty much a write off.

This is where the anti-Trudeau ads are like trying to balance on the edge of a knife though. Driving Trudeau down runs a serious risk of breaking up the vote splits that would be necessary to take seats in Quebec and BC.