Comparing top 15 prospects from other Canadian teams

[Chip Hilton]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

The fact that Van has Demko @ 4 is pretty funny. I would take McDonald over him 10/10 times and McDonald was #12 on our list.

That means Van's #4 is Calgary's #13 at best

The logic used to reach this conclusion is quite a stretch, to say the least.

The Canucks are very happy with Demko's development and it could easily be argued that the Flames picked the wrong goalie.

[H2SO4(aq)]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Brodie, Gaudreau, and Giordano are the only impact NHL players on that list and none of them would have been on the Flames top ten prospect list at the same time so I'm not sure what that has to do with this discussion.

Ferland - such low impact he basically won a playoff series.
Bouma - 16 goals worth of "non impact". how many oilers scored more and are therefore "impact" nhl players? Ebs, noog, pouliot. yep even taylor hall couldn't muster more than 14.

need i go on?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Chip Hilton

[/B]

The logic used to reach this conclusion is quite a stretch, to say the least.

The Canucks are very happy with Demko's development and it could easily be argued that the Flames picked the wrong goalie.

I would be more than happy to hear that argument.

All things considered, it's pretty foolish to start making these sorts of projections for goaltenders only a year after they were drafted. I think the most practical assertion is that both prospects are pretty comparable right now, and THAT is precisely the important point gleaned from GranteedEV's post. The point here is that the #4 prospect on Vancouver's list is most closely comparable to the #13 prospect on the Flames' list. It is in no way a logical stretch to extrapolate from this that Calgary's prospect pool is overwhelmingly better than the Canucks'.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Quality, not depth is the most important aspect of a prospect pool.

Buuuuuuuuuuuuuull####!!! The Oilers have McDavid and Nurse. McDavid bombs out (and it is a possibility, although not likely) and the Oilers are the worst collection of garbage in professional hockey. How many first overall blowouts do you fine [true feelings removed] Oiler fans need to have before you figure out that one player does not change your fortunes.

The majority of these guys aren't going to pan out as hoped/expected.

Yup, and what happens when McJesus doesn't turn into the next Gretzky, like you're expecting, and only turns into a Tavares level of talent? You still need 12 other quality forwards, 7 quality defensemen, and 2 quality goaltenders around him to have a team that can even make the playoffs! Oiler fans annoy the every loving #### out of me because they refuse to learn anything from watching the train wreck that is the organization they call a hockey club. It;s the same crap year-after-year-after-year. See you in November, when the Oilers have been already eliminated and you're dreaming of drafting Auston Matthews.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by New Era

Buuuuuuuuuuuuuull####!!! The Oilers have McDavid and Nurse. McDavid bombs out (and it is a possibility, although not likely) and the Oilers are the worst collection of garbage in professional hockey. How many first overall blowouts do you fine [true feelings removed] Oiler fans need to have before you figure out that one player does not change your fortunes.

Quality just is more important than depth when it comes to prospects.

Sutter once boasted that the Flames had the best goaltender prospect depth in the NHL. They had Krahn, Irving, Keetly, McElhinney.

They only ended up with a marginal backup out of it.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Quality just is more important than depth when it comes to prospects...

You are wrong. Both quality and depth are important. What is crucial is to have quality throughout the group, and this is where the Oilers fall short. Beyond the first few blue-chippers, there is not much quality, and that is a serious problem.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Quality just is more important than depth when it comes to prospects.

Sutter once boasted that the Flames had the best goaltender prospect depth in the NHL. They had Krahn, Irving, Keetly, McElhinney.

They only ended up with a marginal backup out of it.

I'm sure Don Waddell once boasted about having Patrik Stefan too. That one quote and Darryl Sutter's failed draft picks doesn't mean prospect depth isn't important.

I'd put Edmonton at number one solely because of McDavid as well, but the way you're trying to dismiss the importance of prospect depth is downright foolish. If the Oilers had managed to have any prospect depth beyond their first overall picks they probably would be a much better team at this point.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Quality just is more important than depth when it comes to prospects.

Sutter once boasted that the Flames had the best goaltender prospect depth in the NHL. They had Krahn, Irving, Keetly, McElhinney.

They only ended up with a marginal backup out of it.

And the Oilers drafted Hall, RNH and Yakupov #1 in three consecutive drafts, and still have a turd circling the bowl. That was supposedly quality? Look what happened. Now look at the Flames, who drafted talent at almost every pick for a few straight drafts. One team, with those limited talent depth picks, made the playoffs. They made the playoffs on the back of those depth picks. The team with those three straight #1 picks #### the bed so hard there isn't a dry cleaner on this planet that can get the stains out (ironic since you are called Oil "Stain"). I'll happily watch the team with the depth of prospects produce a top pair defender from the 4th round, a top line scoring player from the 4th round, and a top level defensive player from the 3rd round, rather than watch a bunch of #1 draft picks throw up all over themselves in almost every game they play. Your quality is joke and has been not only trumped, but hammered to pieces, by the Flames depth in prospects.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Brodie, Gaudreau, and Giordano are the only impact NHL players on that list and none of them would have been on the Flames top ten prospect list at the same time so I'm not sure what that has to do with this discussion.

That really hits the nail on the head right there.

The fact you seem to think depth plays no role in success speaks for itself. The Oilers utter failure to draft any kind of depth beyond their gifted first overall picks is why they're going to continue to be terrible for years to come.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Chip Hilton

The logic used to reach this conclusion is quite a stretch, to say the least.

Not really. McDonald was selected 12th because we'd be reluctant to hand a top 5 spot to an 18 year old goaltender... you could already argue he has more pure upside than Ortio or Gillies (which is splitting hairs, because both those guys have franchise/Vezina upside) but he won't be making his pro debut for another year and his NHL debut is probably another two+ years from that. Do you think Demko will be in the NHL within three years on the other hand?

The Canucks are very happy with Demko's development and it could easily be argued that the Flames picked the wrong goalie.

To your first point - yes, I have no doubt the Canucks are very happy with Demko's development. As only an 18 year old he was already 4th best in save percentage among Hockey East goaltenders. A solid prospect, Gaudreau's former teammate too so I'm sure the Flames saw their share of him as a freshman.

But no, it could not be argued that the Flames picked the wrong goalie, and certainly not "easily". I realize there's bias here, but you'd certainly have a tough time convincing anyone to trade swap McDonald for Demko. The difference is becoming like the Draisaitl/Bennett difference... one prospect might round out fine for the other team, but we certainly wouldn't swap ours for theirs right now.

[Phil Russell]

Prospect depth means that first and second line players, and top pairing defensemen will from year to year emerge from mid-round and later picks, not just bottom end players. That's a prerequisite for building a successful team. And prospect depth facilitates trades, bold ones, that improve your franchise. Also a prerequisite for building a successful team. Quality is important too, but to say it is more important than depth is a strategy for building the Edmonton Oilers, not for building a successful team.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Draisatl is not in the same class, no. What separates him from all the others is his plodding footspeed, which is more often than any other single factor THE detriment to a player's ability to find success at the next level. Sure, he could prove to be an exception, but based on how he played in his 40 NHL games last season, I would have to think that there are real concerns about whether he will ever manage to play at a high enough pace to make an impact.

Yes, the Oilers suck and will likely ruin Draisaitl but let's not make him sound like he's already a bust and not a high level prospect. He won the Memorial Cup MVP and dominated juniors once he was sent back. If the 2014 draft was re-done today, I would bet he would generally go 3rd (behind Ekblad and Bennett), with a handful of teams choosing Draisaitl over Bennett due to his size.

[GranteedEV]

It would probably go Ekblad, Bennett, Reinhart, Sanheim, Larkin, Pastrnak, Draisaitl / Ehlers / Dal Colle / Nylander in a 2014 redraft.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Yes, the Oilers suck and will likely ruin Draisaitl but let's not make him sound like he's already a bust and not a high level prospect. He won the Memorial Cup MVP and dominated juniors once he was sent back. If the 2014 draft was re-done today, I would bet he would generally go 3rd (behind Ekblad and Bennett), with a handful of teams choosing Draisaitl over Bennett due to his size.

Who gives a rip about what awards the kid has won. He is poor skater. The more I look at Draisaitl the more I see Pavel Brendl. Both were big time junior talents, but both lacked the skating talent to play at the next level. Draisaitl's skating mechanics are so poor I'm not certain he can ever learn to skate well enough to survive in the NHL. The guy spends so much time on his heels that he is flat footed at every turn. This is something scouts would look at and evaluate as to whether they think he can improve. I've seen enough guys that skate like Draisaitl to know they are hit an miss as to whether they will every find a stride that lets them play at the NHL level. He was absolutely brutal in his first 37 games. His skating stood out like a sore thumb as an area for massive improvement, so this is the thing to watch. Since Edmonton likes to work so hard with their players on they are weak at, I don't like his chances. I see a bust happening before our eyes, just like Pavel Brendl.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by New Era

Who gives a rip about what awards the kid has won. He is poor skater. The more I look at Draisaitl the more I see Pavel Brendl. Both were big time junior talents, but both lacked the skating talent to play at the next level. Draisaitl's skating mechanics are so poor I'm not certain he can ever learn to skate well enough to survive in the NHL. The guy spends so much time on his heels that he is flat footed at every turn. This is something scouts would look at and evaluate as to whether they think he can improve. I've seen enough guys that skate like Draisaitl to know they are hit an miss as to whether they will every find a stride that lets them play at the NHL level. He was absolutely brutal in his first 37 games. His skating stood out like a sore thumb as an area for massive improvement, so this is the thing to watch. Since Edmonton likes to work so hard with their players on they are weak at, I don't like his chances. I see a bust happening before our eyes, just like Pavel Brendl.

I think Leon has some bust risk because of his skating but in no way is he like Brendl. Brendl was lazy and only scored what I would call "junior" goals.
Brendl didn't bust because of his skating. He busted because he wasn't willing to put in the work on or off the ice to be a pro.
Leon seems like a good kid generally - and knows how to use his body effectively. So I think he will be a player, though his skating could limit his upside.

I don't normally defend Oiler prospects but I can't stand Brendl and no one deserves to be compared to that bum.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Yes, the Oilers suck and will likely ruin Draisaitl but let's not make him sound like he's already a bust and not a high level prospect. He won the Memorial Cup MVP and dominated juniors once he was sent back. If the 2014 draft was re-done today, I would bet he would generally go 3rd (behind Ekblad and Bennett), with a handful of teams choosing Draisaitl over Bennett due to his size.

I never suggested that Draisatl was not a high level prospect, only that he in not quite in the same class as the other three because of his poor skating. I see that as a significant detractor to his surety of being able to translate an elite level game in Juniour to the NHL.

Furthermore, why do we care that Draisatl was the Mem Cup MVP? Have you looked at that list? The applicability of this award to future NHL success is about as relevant as it is for the Hobey Baker Award. Which is to say that it doesn't mean much.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Chip Hilton

[/B]

The logic used to reach this conclusion is quite a stretch, to say the least.

The Canucks are very happy with Demko's development and it could easily be argued that the Flames picked the wrong goalie.

It could easily be argued that but they're pretty close either way. If Demko was in the Flames system he'd be ranked where Macdonald is, and not as high as he is in the thin Canucks system.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by New Era

Who gives a rip about what awards the kid has won. He is poor skater. The more I look at Draisaitl the more I see Pavel Brendl. Both were big time junior talents, but both lacked the skating talent to play at the next level. Draisaitl's skating mechanics are so poor I'm not certain he can ever learn to skate well enough to survive in the NHL. The guy spends so much time on his heels that he is flat footed at every turn. This is something scouts would look at and evaluate as to whether they think he can improve. I've seen enough guys that skate like Draisaitl to know they are hit an miss as to whether they will every find a stride that lets them play at the NHL level. He was absolutely brutal in his first 37 games. His skating stood out like a sore thumb as an area for massive improvement, so this is the thing to watch. Since Edmonton likes to work so hard with their players on they are weak at, I don't like his chances. I see a bust happening before our eyes, just like Pavel Brendl.

Umm...ok?? You seem pretty confident in your scouting abilities yet you're off on an island when you compare him to the next Pavel Brendl. You're saying scouts would evaluate his foot speed and see if he can progress, yet somehow he was a consensus top 5 pick based off what the scouts saw? I hate defending an Oiler prospect but I watched a lot of Rockets games and he was not nearly as slow as you're making him out to be. I didn't watch his games when he was with the Oilers but in the WHL, he was consistently getting shorthanded breakaways because of his size and strong stride once he got going. He'll never be a speedster but the projections to a big bodied/possession centre that can control the play don't seem all that implausible. He was clearly the team's best player on a very star-studded team and would likely be the top prospect in the system for a number of NHL teams.

@Textcritic - As for the significance of the Memorial Cup MVP, all it shows is that in his only year since he was drafted 3rd overall, he had a very solid junior season and didn't hurt his stock. Sure, of course it doesn't guarantee success but don't don't make it sound like it's a long list of scrubs who have won it. Do you even know who won it over the past few years?? Prior to Draisaitl this year, MacKinnon, Huberdeau, Hall (X2), Lucic, Radulov, and Perry have won it.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Umm...ok?? You seem pretty confident in your scouting abilities yet you're off on an island when you compare him to the next Pavel Brendl. You're saying scouts would evaluate his foot speed and see if he can progress, yet somehow he was a consensus top 5 pick based off what the scouts saw? I hate defending an Oiler prospect but I watched a lot of Rockets games and he was not nearly as slow as you're making him out to be. I didn't watch his games when he was with the Oilers but in the WHL, he was consistently getting shorthanded breakaways because of his size and strong stride once he got going. He'll never be a speedster but the projections to a big bodied/possession centre that can control the play don't seem all that implausible. He was clearly the team's best player on a very star-studded team and would likely be the top prospect in the system for a number of NHL teams.

The Brendl comparison isn't mine and I'm not defending it but.. Brendl was a consensus top 5 pick too, picked 4th overall.

I'm not sure how calling Leon's skating ability into question is a problem. Yeah he was fine in the WHL last year but he played in the NHL for half a season and his skating was atrocious. He gets away with it in the WHL because he cheats a lot, staying up higher and having the blueliners catch him with a good pass. It wasn't his strong stride that allowed him to get a breakaway.

He's a good player when he has the puck, strong, can hold onto it and draw defenders in, makes good smart decisions.. but his size makes up for a couple glaring holes in juniors. He'll also already be 20 in October, so despite being only one year out from the draft he and Reinhart have a big head start vs guys like Bennett and Dal Colle.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Chip Hilton

[/B]

The logic used to reach this conclusion is quite a stretch, to say the least.

The Canucks are very happy with Demko's development and it could easily be argued that the Flames picked the wrong goalie.

There was nothing wrong with the logic at all.

MacDonald and Demko were 1, 2 for goalies on virtually every list. Some had Demko 1st, some, including Central Scouting, had MacDonald.

Since then, they have only had one year of development and both seemed to progress normally (though some that follow MacDonald suggest that he really improved this year, but we'll ignore that for this conversation).

The two are as close to being equivalent prospects at the moment as you will ever see. Therefore, 1 of 3 conclusions could be made, based on fan voting:

1) Vancouver fans are significantly over-rating Demko

2) Calgary fans are significantly under-rating MacDonald, or

3) The Flames' prospect depth is vastly superior to Vancouver's.

The most likely explanation is 3, and virtually everyone (other than Van fans) agrees with that.