Flames cap situation 2016-17

[Bingo]

I'm not in a panic about this, and admitting that I agree with Ricardodw on something makes me a little nervous, but I don't see room for Hudler either.

My calculations have 24 players and 73.7M in salary for 2016-17, and with that I'm sure there is all kinds of debate (high and low)

but the fact remains, adding Hamilton and Frolik and with Giordano, Gaudreau and Monahan all getting new deals the Flames are pretty much tapped out.

However I don't see it as a 2016-17 issue, that's merely the starting point for a new Hudler deal. I think the biggest reason he's out the door is because he will want to get paid (and deserves to) and the Flames can't fit that big dollar 5 year deal into their projections. Doesn't fit their timeline, especially with extending themselves post apex on Giordano.

[Bingo]

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[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

so you think that the Flames will be adding to the core that they have now?

I don't know. I am fairly certain that there will be changes made to the lineup in the course of the next year that will affect the cap situation for 2016. I don't believe that the core is as fixed as you have imagined.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Brodie/Gio/Hamilton/Monahan/Gaudreau/Bennett/Frolik are in place

will they be as good as Toews/Kane/Hossa/Sharp/Keith/Seabrook/Hjalmarson were for the last 5-6 years?

In Chicago's first cup run they had Ladd, Byfuglien, Brian Campbell, Stopel, Brouwer as support players who they had to drop and replace with prospects because Toews, Kane and Hjalmarson were using the cap space. The 2010 Hawks were as good as they got and they just happened to be really good..

There was also that small matter of Talon's blunder in failing to qualify RFAs in 2009 which led to much higher priced contracts for Versteeg and Brouwer, and subsequently less room the following year with which to accommodate Byfuglien, Ladd, and Campbell.

Is Calgary projecting to be as good as the Blackhawks? How can we know? I do know that it is premature for fans to start wringing their hands about it now.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Yanda

Oh no! Where will we find the extra 300k we overpaid fpr Bouma. The threads today make it seem like the sky is falling.

I am much more comfortable with Bouma playing on the top checking line with Backlund @2.2M than I am with Frolik being #1 RW @ 4.3.

Maybe Poirier is #1RW in 2016-17.


Hamilton changed the defense depth dramatically .. from all out panic on depth counting on Russell/Wideman to be the #1 pairing and journeymen AHL/NHL guys being 5-7

The problem as I see it is Flames management accesses the situation and figured that Wotherspoon/Sieloff/Morrison/Hickey/Culkin are going to be able to be 4-7 in 2016.

I think that Russell is a far better #4 d-man than what any of these will be in a year.

They looked at the forward and said that in a year Hudler is un-signable only 1 of Poirier, Ferland, Klimchuck, Colborne, Granlund, Shore, Jooris will make a push up the line-up.

I don't know if I have been in agreement with Flames management to so high a degree ever. If they only stayed away from UFA's

Only difference I have is I would like Russell or Wideman instead of Frolik going forward and never would have signed Raymond for more than 1.5M.

Maybe they will be able to find a way to keep Russell.


What an exciting year 2015-16 is going to be.... To a playoff team that went to the 2nd round they are adding Bennett, Ferland, Hamilton, and Gio.... and for some reason Frolik instead of Poirier.... They are looking at being a first round home team

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

I am much more comfortable with Bouma playing on the top checking line with Backlund @2.2M than I am with Frolik being #1 RW @ 4.3...

If they only stayed away from UFA's.

Only difference I have is I would like Russell or Wideman instead of Frolik going forward and never would have signed Raymond for more than 1.5M...

... a playoff team that went to the 2nd round they are adding Bennett, Ferland, Hamilton, and Gio.... and for some reason Frolik instead of Poirier...

And the truth comes out.

As for the reason why Frolik is pencilled into the lineup ahead of Poirier, it is because one of these players is a bonafide top-nine NHL player and the other has only just finished his rookie pro season.

I think you need to dial back your short term expectations of Poirier a bit. While he looks like he could be a great option to be #1–2 on the right side in a few years, in his time with the Flames this past season he did not look anywhere near ready. Not even close. Frolik is a better option now and probably for another season or two after this year in that role than Poirier is.

[flambers]

The other risk is will the cap decrease due to the weak Canadian dollar....

This could be an issue for many teams over the next couple of years.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm not in a panic about this, and admitting that I agree with Ricardodw on something makes me a little nervous, but I don't see room for Hudler either.

My calculations have 24 players and 73.7M in salary for 2016-17, and with that I'm sure there is all kinds of debate (high and low)

but the fact remains, adding Hamilton and Frolik and with Giordano, Gaudreau and Monahan all getting new deals the Flames are pretty much tapped out.

However I don't see it as a 2016-17 issue, that's merely the starting point for a new Hudler deal. I think the biggest reason he's out the door is because he will want to get paid (and deserves to) and the Flames can't fit that big dollar 5 year deal into their projections. Doesn't fit their timeline, especially with extending themselves post apex on Giordano.

There will have to be some turnover once we become a cap team. It's no different than teams like Chicago that have to routinely trade high paid players for futures. You just have to hope that you get decent value.

There is always so much worry among fans about this issue, but time and time again, teams prove that there are usually ways to wiggle through it. It will be a sad day when we eventually have to trade some of the fan favourites, but aside from 4 or 5 core players, most teams tend to have revolving doors these days. It's just the reality of the cap era.

Honestly, if you aren't feeling a cap crunch at some point, then you probably aren't producing or acquiring enough good players to be a contender either.

[Vulcan]

Here's a list I put up when the Bouma thread was slow.

Once we give Bouma a one year contract at $2.5M it won't be going down. I do think $2M for 3 years would be fair though.

Looking at our cap situation in 2016/17, yeah we'll be up against the cap.

Frolic - 4.3M
Hudler - 5.0M this is just a guess and if we don't sign him, it will solve a lot of problems.
Jones - gone
Backlund - 3.575M
Raymond - 3.15M I think I might give up a draft pick to unload him. He isn't terrible but overpriced.
Stajan - 3.125M possible trade bait
Colborne - 1.5M guesstimate
Bollig - 1.25M not overpriced but wouldn't miss him
Gaudreau - 6M guesstimate
Monahan - 6M guesstimate
Granlund - 0.8M "
Shore - 1.0M "
Jooris - 1.0M "
Bouma - 2.0M "
Ferland - 1.5M
Bennett - 0.925M

That's 15 forwards at about $41M

On defence we have

Hamilton - 5.75M
Wideman - 5.25M
Brodie - 4.65M
Smid - 3.5M could end up on LTI which would help to re-sign Russell or we could trade
Giordano - 7M complete guess but he has to fit into our budget
Engelland - 2.916M
Wotherspoon - 1.0M or could be Morrison etc.

That's about $30M for defence.

In goal it's a total guess but it would help if Ortio takes a spot. Lets budget $5M for our goalies.

That comes out to about $76M cap.

The cap could go up and we'll be fine but I'd like a couple of moves made so we can keep Hudler and Russell. Some of our cheaper forwards could be replaced by prospects but the salary savings wouldn't be much.

What I see as the problems are Raymond and Smid's contracts. If somehow we can ditch those two we'll be pretty well off.

Raymond has a Modified NT so that's a problem but he's also the 15th forward so his 3.15M won't need to be replaced. Smid could go on LTI or traded. His salary could be replaced by a prospect so that would gain us about 2.5M. That gives us 5.6M space to get us down to about a 70M cap. If the cap goes up than we can look at signing Russell or paying more for Hudler.

I think everything hinges on the Giordano contract. 7M is reasonable and allows us some choices. Above that and we need to start thinking of getting rid of players we want to keep.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by New Era

See, a couple hundred grand here and there makes a pretty substantial difference. So when you over-pay a guy like Bouma $300-500K, that means it has to come out of a player somewhere else, and can result in a much lesser player than maybe you had hoped to have in the lineup.

While I don't exactly disagree, I wanted to emphasize that one word there. Having a bit less to use on other players doesn't necessarily result in a team that's worse. It just means that you have to have another guy that's a bit underpaid.

Sure, you it's easier to overpay, and 200k here and there starts adding up quickly.

But then again
1) you're never going to sign every player exactly according to their value.
2) there is no definitive way of saying what exactly is a players "correct" value.

The latter point especially is why I think it's ridiculous to worry about "extra" 200k in say Bouma's contract. It's not an exact science.

This also shows the importance of always having cheap young talent rolling through the organization and keeping the upper level salaries in check.

Yup, totally agreed. This is the cap world way.

It will be interesting to see how salary structures develop over time. We could also see a split open up between the top tier and the bottom tier, with lower level experienced players signing for ELC level money just to stay in the league.

[dammage79]

Well, Ferland still needs to be signed and with Jooris inked the Flames now have a little more than 3m in cap. Have to think a couple of guys will be moved before camp opens.

Don't see how Byron stays. Why they chose to play this game with him is a bit of a head scratcher.

[Enoch Root]

But Ferland would make 25 contracts. They are sitting at 24 contracts right now and about $4m in space.

If Smid isn't fit to play, they are at 23 with $7m available.

Ferland and Byron aren't going to cost very much. And any additional defenseman is going to be cheap (Nakladal is $800k)

And if they can move a contract like Raymond's or one of the goalies, they are close to $10m in space again.

People are making way too big of a deal of the cap right now. No, we're not a floor team any more, but it isn't a problem either. We're not going to be losing players.

[Incogneto]

Spreadsheet updated with Jooris.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[Itse]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Well, Ferland still needs to be signed and with Jooris inked the Flames now have a little more than 3m in cap. Have to think a couple of guys will be moved before camp opens.

I guess they could let guys fight it out first and then figure things out. Our cap situation isn't that desperate.

That said, that $13M we have tied up in Jones, Raymond, Stajan and Engelland seems a whole lot right now. Someone made a joke about "death by $100,000 cuts", but that group is more like death by $1M dollar cuts.

But I just don't see who would take them at this point. Once the season starts, sure, someone could be looking to plug holes in the lineup. But right now most teams have a lot of guys fighting for jobs anyway.

[Strange Brew]

Yeah it is not panic time but something will have to give in order to keep Hudler and Russell. I am not convinced that there all these cap floor teams interested in Stajan, Engelland, Raymond and Wideman.

I remember Treliving defending the Engelland signing, admitting the salary looked high but they really liked him, brought intangibles, it was only a three year term and they had the cap space. There is a lesson in here somewhere - don't spend any money you don't need to. Things change quickly.

Flames really capitalized on the cap flexibility they had. Adding Hamilton and Frolik to the team and losing nothing this offseason. Those days are over. Further changes will require at least equal parts subtraction.

Treliving and Burke have done a nice job and team looks so much better than 18 months ago. But I give them relatively poor grades on negotiating team friendly contracts. More negatives (Raymond, Engelland, Stajan) than positives (Brodie). Most others are where they should be.

Will be interesting to see if BT can pull off a hockey trade that helps the situation.

[wingmaker]

Given what the expectations were, I think you have to include Hamilton as a team friendly contract. Might be a high number but the universal consensus seemed to be that he would get at least 6 if not close to 7 million a year.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Treliving and Burke have done a nice job and team looks so much better than 18 months ago. But I give them relatively poor grades on negotiating team friendly contracts. More negatives (Raymond, Engelland, Stajan) than positives (Brodie). Most others are where they should be.

Will be interesting to see if BT can pull off a hockey trade that helps the situation.

I agree that the bag is more mixed than some are claiming, but you can't count Raymond, Engelland or Stajan as negatives before we see whether or not they can be moved. Plus of course if the team wins the cup, it will be worth a bit of future pain (No I'm not saying that's likely.)

Also, Stajan was re-signed by Burke, so that's not on Treliving.

[Strange Brew]

I don't think the contracts for those three make the players unmoveable but it certainly lowers their value in a trade. Time will tell.

This years teams has four players on very team friendly cap hits (Hudler, Giordano, Gaudreau and Monahan). The team could make some noise this year.

[memphusk]

Russell should be used as trade bait. He won't exceed what he has done this year. Good chance he won't match it. That opens up a spot at lower dollars also.

[aedge]

Moving Russell is ridiculous. He is a top 4 d and could be the best 5-6 we ever have had


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[blender]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Yeah it is not panic time but something will have to give in order to keep Hudler and Russell. I am not convinced that there all these cap floor teams interested in Stajan, Engelland, Raymond and Wideman.

I remember Treliving defending the Engelland signing, admitting the salary looked high but they really liked him, brought intangibles, it was only a three year term and they had the cap space. There is a lesson in here somewhere - don't spend any money you don't need to. Things change quickly.

Flames really capitalized on the cap flexibility they had. Adding Hamilton and Frolik to the team and losing nothing this offseason. Those days are over. Further changes will require at least equal parts subtraction.

Treliving and Burke have done a nice job and team looks so much better than 18 months ago. But I give them relatively poor grades on negotiating team friendly contracts. More negatives (Raymond, Engelland, Stajan) than positives (Brodie). Most others are where they should be.

Will be interesting to see if BT can pull off a hockey trade that helps the situation.

Agree with your post in general, but the Hamilton contract looks excellent right now.