Very Early Western Conference Standing Predictions

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

The only surprising thing in this thread is how high some folks are placing Edmonton.

Yeah, the only team i will guarantee they will be better than in the pacific is arizona. SJ and Van are still a level above

[Vinny01]

Central
Minnesota
Dallas
Chicago
Winnipeg (WC1)
St. Louis (WC2)
Nashville
Colorado

Pacific
Anaheim
Calgary
LA
San Jose
Edmonton
Phoenix
Vancouver

[StrykerSteve]

Take away Calgary's abysmal 8 game losing streak in December and they had a marvellous season last year. It would actually be quite difficult to reproduce another losing streak of that magnitude next season. I anticipate they will break 100 points and make the playoffs in a comfortable position.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

Take away Calgary's abysmal 8 game losing streak in December and they had a marvellous season last year. It would actually be quite difficult to reproduce another losing streak of that magnitude next season. I anticipate they will break 100 points and make the playoffs in a comfortable position.

It is equally unlikely that they play .800 hockey against the Pacific, or that they go 10-0 against Edmonton and Arizona.

On the whole, I would say Anaheim is easily the class of the Pacific. Calgary and LA a couple steps below, then Vancouver and San Jose, both likely to miss, then Edmonton (catching up but not quite there), and Arizona being this year's Sabres.

I won't even predict the Central, except to say that Colorado is the only team I definitively see outside the playoffs.

[Street Pharmacist]

Yeah. You can't remove the ugly parts and ignore the fortunate parts. There isn't two teams giving away points in the west this year so everyone gets less points. Flames are still a bubble team at this point IMO

[Resolute 14]

Adding Hamilton and Frolik makes me a great deal more confident that we will prevent a slide back. But yeah, our playoff aspirations this year will depend as much on San Jose (especially) and Vancouver as anything else. If either of those teams plays unexpectedly well, we're fighting for our playoff lives again.

[Oil Stain]

St.Louis
Chicago
Nashville
Minnesota-XXWildcardXX
Dallas-XXWildcardXX
Winnipeg
Colorado

Anaheim
LA
San Jose
Calgary
Vancouver
Edmonton
Arizona

Almost the same as last season. Dallas sneaks into a wildcard. Calgary can't replicate last season's run of pretty much everything going right. LA rebounds from a terrible SO/OT record. San Jose has a dead cat bounce.

[shotinthebacklund]

My guess:
Anaheim
LA
Calgary

Edmonton
Vancouver
San Jose
Arizona

St. Louis
Chicago
Winnipeg
Minnesota*
Colorado*

Nashville
Dallas

[Otto-matic]

Anaheim
Calgary
LA

Vancouver
San Jose
Edmonton
Arizona


Chicago
St. Louis
Winnipeg
Dallas*
Nashville*

Colorado
Minnesota

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Almost the same as last season. Dallas sneaks into a wildcard. Calgary can't replicate last season's run of pretty much everything going right. LA rebounds from a terrible SO/OT record. San Jose has a dead cat bounce.

I wouldn't call below average goaltending, bad injury problems including their best player during the stretch run and an 8 game losing streak "pretty much everything going right".

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by heep223

I wouldn't call below average goaltending, bad injury problems including their best player during the stretch run and an 8 game losing streak "pretty much everything going right".

It his defense that in a nut shell would classify as "pretty much everything going right" in Edmonton.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Adding Hamilton and Frolik makes me a great deal more confident that we will prevent a slide back. But yeah, our playoff aspirations this year will depend as much on San Jose (especially) and Vancouver as anything else. If either of those teams plays unexpectedly well, we're fighting for our playoff lives again.

Some good points here. A lot had to go right last year for the Flames to make the playoffs and make round 2.

-Gaudreau had a calder-quality season, after many questions about whether he would play in the AHL all season. He's solidified himself as a 1st line player in his rookie season. That's pretty much unheard of for a Flames' forward prospect since the early 90s.

-Goaltending was a big question heading into last season. Hiller really solidified our goaltending tandem last season when big questions were left after Kipper left. Both goalies were solid, didn't need to steal many games (even though both did on occasions) and never really was a major reason when we lost.

-Gio having a Norris caliber season.

-Our coach won the Jack Adams' award

-Our D suddenly turned into one of the best in the league literally overnight. What were the major changes from the season before? Butler was gone, Engelland added. Otherwise, it was the same group. Smid was injured and Schelmko was a late season addition. We had the best offensive group in the league on the back end. Nobody saw that coming.

-Monahan avoided the sophomore slump and is shaping up to be a #1 C.

-Sharks had a major decline as did the Canucks. The defending champ Kings crapped the bed all season long. Crazy comeback wins all season long. Going .800 in our down division.

Yeah, a lot of things went right for Calgary to make the playoffs last season. I was expecting a small step back this season, but the acquisition of Hamilton and Frolik might (very) cautiously make me optimistic as they are both strong possession players. Then again, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't make the playoffs.

So I'm not locking the Flames in for a playoff spot just yet. We still have an incredibly young core and some questions in goal long term. A lot of work still left to be done. We're going into year 3 of a rebuild, on a high that not a single person in the hockey world except Aaron Ward predicted. And even then I think him predicting us making the playoffs was just him going against the grain.

A lot of things still have to go right for the Flames to make the playoffs again, and we'll most likely need help from other teams like we did last season. I'm cautiously optimistic we'll make it again, but people should still temper their expectations and not be upset if we don't.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by heep223

I wouldn't call below average goaltending, bad injury problems including their best player during the stretch run and an 8 game losing streak "pretty much everything going right".

Half the team enjoying career years, however, does argue that.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by heep223

I wouldn't call below average goaltending, bad injury problems including their best player during the stretch run and an 8 game losing streak "pretty much everything going right".

Hiller posted his best save percentage since 2010/2011 and Ramo posted his best save percentage ever.

I'm not sure how you could have expected anything better than that regarding goaltending.


Things didn't go fantastic in Calgary in regards to injuries. They were 12th in man games lost in the league. Their only real injuries to key players however were to Giordano and Backlund. They both played the majority of the season.

The Flames top line and other top 4 Dmen stayed healthy.

I wouldn't say they faced any abnormally bad streches of injuries like Pittsburgh had to face when they had multiple top four defenders out at the same time for instance.

I wouldn't say those were particularily bad injury problems. More like average.

An 8 game losing streak is probably balanced out by having a winning record in shootouts/OT, multiple come from behind wins, and extremely high ES shooting % as a team.

All in all I'd say the Flames had mostly everything go right. I think they need less right to make the playoffs this season than last. However I believe the Kings are bouncing back, and San Jose improved their team as well after signing slugs like John Scott last season.

[heep223]

We could argue about each of those points and I doubt we would ever agree, which is fine.

EDIT: To clarify, quite a bit more went right last season than went wrong. Not arguing that. Don't need to get into semantics, but I just don't think you can say "almost everything went right". For example on the goaltending point - I watched 81 Flames games last year and can say that overall it was average at best. Yes that's my personal opinion but I think that's pretty much consensus around here (could be wrong I guess). That's why the comparison to the 2013-14 Avs doesn't work, because they had elite goaltending all year.

[Resolute 14]

I don't disagree with your overall point, Oil Stain, but at the same time, don't trivialize the injuries. Notbably, how and when Giordano went down, and the fact that for a goodly portion of the first part of the season, our most experienced centre had less than 100 games to his career.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

St.Louis
Chicago
Nashville
Minnesota-XXWildcardXX
Dallas-XXWildcardXX
Winnipeg
Colorado

Anaheim
LA
San Jose
Calgary
Vancouver
Edmonton
Arizona

Almost the same as last season. Dallas sneaks into a wildcard. Calgary can't replicate last season's run of pretty much everything going right. LA rebounds from a terrible SO/OT record. San Jose has a dead cat bounce.

Dallas allowed 260 goals last year, and did nothing to remedy the situation except downgrade their defense and add another goalie who isn't much better than the one they already had. Sure they might score more but at this point they look like a slightly better version of Edmonton. Unless they do something about that D situation (bottom 4-5 in the league with Philly, Toronto and Edmonton) they aren't sniffing the playoffs.

Your reasoning for SJ ahead of CGY is interesting. SJ is going to have a "dead cat bounce" while Calgary "can't replicate last season's run of pretty much everything going right " despite huge upgrades to the roster. SJ made a lateral move in goal and signed Paul Martin and Joel Ward. I'll take Hamilton and Frolik, thank you very much.

Honestly, Dallas and SJ ahead of Calgary sounds like wishful thinking to me rather than a legitimate prediction.

When straight up comparing the rosters it looks even worse (forget about the results from 14/15). Calgary's defense is in a different league than SJ and DAL, no point in comparing or contrasting but I will anyway... Calgary is a 9/10, SJ is a 6 or 7 and DAL is 3 or 4. I should mention that this is the most important position on the team in my eyes.

Given Calgary's strong depth up front, I don't think SJ has any edge at the forward ranks though Dallas clearly does on their top 6 alone (their depth is mediocre though IMO). Too bad this is a league that punishes bad defensive teams more than rewards great offensive ones. You need balance and Dallas is the opposite of that. SJ is just 'meh' throughout their lineup.

Goaltending is a wash between all three teams, though SJ's is more unproven I suspect Jones will at least be average.

The only way I see DAL and SJ ahead of Calgary is if EVERYTHING goes wrong for the Flames. Just because you think "everything went right last year", it doesn't mean everything will go wrong this year to balance it out. Besides, everything didn't go right last year. Not sure if you heard but our best player and captain missed the last 21 games and playoffs. We also went through a 3 week stretch with 3 of our top 4 centers injured. Those two situations add up to three solid months of misfortune that our Jack Adams coach helped us navigate through. Just because we weathered through adversity while others wilted, it doesn't mean there's a slight against our future chances... if anything it means we can probably deal with the next shovelful of #### that gets heaped on our faces, whenever and whatever that is.

I agree LA has an excellent chance of finishing ahead of CGY given your reasoning.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Dallas allowed 260 goals last year, and did nothing to remedy the situation except downgrade their defense and add another goalie who isn't much better than the one they already had. Sure they might score more but at this point they look like a slightly better version of Edmonton. Unless they do something about that D situation (bottom 4-5 in the league with Philly, Toronto and Edmonton) they aren't sniffing the playoffs.

Lehtonen's save percentage over the last 4 seasons went like this:
.922
.916
.919
.904

The backups were just as bad.

Dallas had the second worst save percentage in the league last season. They were 19th in allowing shots against. Slightly better than 13/14. Most everything stayed the same from year to year besides that. In 13/14 they were 17h in the league in goals allowed. Save percentage makes a huge difference.

I would expect Lehtonen to bounce back based on his career thus far. Niemi will be better than the backups and will take the number one job if Lehtonen continues to falter.

I think that sets Dallas up to get a huge boost. Going from league basement to average save percentage could mean a 20-30 goal swing and that means Dalls could go from being a +1 team in goal diff to +20-30.

I don't know if they are a lock to make the playoffs but I like their chances.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Lehtonen's save percentage over the last 4 seasons went like this:
.922
.916
.919
.904

The backups were just as bad.

Dallas had the second worst save percentage in the league last season. They were 19th in allowing shots against. Slightly better than 13/14. Most everything stayed the same from year to year besides that. In 13/14 they were 17h in the league in goals allowed. Save percentage makes a huge difference.

I would expect Lehtonen to bounce back based on his career thus far. Niemi will be better than the backups and will take the number one job if Lehtonen continues to falter.

I think that sets Dallas up to get a huge boost. Going from league basement to average save percentage could mean a 20-30 goal swing and that means Dalls could go from being a +1 team in goal diff to +20-30.

I don't know if they are a lock to make the playoffs but I like their chances.

I think you're missing the forest for the trees...his save percentage was terrible because the team's D is terrible. That hasn't changed in fact it's gotten worse.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Lehtonen's save percentage over the last 4 seasons went like this:
.922
.916
.919
.904

The backups were just as bad.

Dallas had the second worst save percentage in the league last season. They were 19th in allowing shots against. Slightly better than 13/14. Most everything stayed the same from year to year besides that. In 13/14 they were 17h in the league in goals allowed. Save percentage makes a huge difference.

I would expect Lehtonen to bounce back based on his career thus far. Niemi will be better than the backups and will take the number one job if Lehtonen continues to falter.

I think that sets Dallas up to get a huge boost. Going from league basement to average save percentage could mean a 20-30 goal swing and that means Dalls could go from being a +1 team in goal diff to +20-30.

I don't know if they are a lock to make the playoffs but I like their chances.

I look at those numbers and don't see a goalie having a bad year I see a defense leaving the goalie vulnerable. They didn't fix their defense so they could bring in Carey Price and he's not going to be able to maintain a good save percentage.