[News] Bouma, Byron, and Jooris and 20 other players file for Salary Arbitration

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

Honestly I can see Bouma continuing similar offensive production. If you look back at the goals he scored, a lot of them are off the rush and great wrist shots. It was something he focused on last summer and did it ever pay off. He's got a great wrist shot, is good at deflections, and doesn't score many garbage goals.

With that in mind, I wouldn't mind a slight overpayment for Bouma. The Flames would still get their money's worth with Bouma at 2.5

I don't think Bouma's going to sign for 2.5m unless it's only for 1-2 years but then he's immediately UFA at the end of the deal. If the Flames want to buy any UFA years, they are going to have to give him significantly more than $2.5m IMO.

[Parallex]

Not that big of a concern for me.

Flames still have plenty of cap space left for this year and given the number of bodies that we project to be in the NHL that number will go down before the season starts (not gonna have 16 forwards start the year in the NHL). I imagine the team will elect the 1 year contract on all arb eligible guys and any who make too much just won't get qualified again next year.

Frankly, I just don't see any of the three getting a onerous raise through arbitration.

Edit: IS there a website that shows actual arbitration awards from the last 5 years or so? I'm curious to see the year to year variation in salary for arb awards.

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

I don't think Bouma's going to sign for 2.5m unless it's only for 1-2 years but then he's immediately UFA at the end of the deal. If the Flames want to buy any UFA years, they are going to have to give him significantly more than $2.5m IMO.

IMO he would be crazy not to sign a 4 yr $2.5 million contract. He's had only one good season.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Fire

IMO he would be crazy not to sign a 4 yr $2.5 million contract. He's had only one good season.

Frankly, I don't think he'll get 2.5 in arbitation... Thats 322% on what he made last year after just one good season. I think he's probably looking at more like what Dwight King made heading into arbitration.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Bandwagon In Flames

Honestly I can see Bouma continuing similar offensive production. If you look back at the goals he scored, a lot of them are off the rush and great wrist shots. It was something he focused on last summer and did it ever pay off. He's got a hard accurate shot, is good at deflections, and doesn't score many garbage goals.

Depends. He could be able to repeat or exceed his performance if he's on Backlund's line again, but Ferland or Bennett might take that away from him. The cheaper we can get him, the better because it lowers the expectations.

[Oil Stain]

If I were the Flames I'd probably go for the one year salary arbitration offer on Lance Bouma and Jooris.

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...4+45+46+63+67#

Bouma's on-ice shooting percentage last season was 11.06%. 13th in the entire league.

Jooris was at 33rd and 10.49%.

If you look at the top 50 in shooting percentage you can see a pretty clear trend. It's almost all highly skilled players. The few guys like Weise, Bouma, Belesky (Played with Perry+Getzlaf, Pouliot, and Dorsett weren't there last year and are really unlikely to be there next year.

Hudler was second but is a decent bet to be there again as he has a clear history of high on-ice %. Guys like Perry and Getzlaf are there as well usually. The common theme of players that remain at the top of this list season after season is high skill level.

Bouma is a good player, but he isn't a high skill guy. I think Jooris may be a guy that got lucky enough to shoot the lights out at exactly the right time.

That's why I would go with one year salary arbitrations, as their production is most likey to fall, or stay similar.

If it stays similar, great. Sign them to extensions.
If it falls, then you can possibly extend Bouma for cheaper than by signing him this season, and can possibly walk away from Jooris.

[868904]

I've read a few times now about Bouma's unsustainable shooting percentage last year and I wonder how much it is a result of the extra skills work he put in last year. It's not like he was scoring weak goals, many of his goals last year were skilled snipes and his release and shot looks dramatically improved from previous years.

With his size, speed and fearlessness to get into the prime scoring areas (ie, in front of the net), and his improving shooting skills, I'm not sure if his shooting percentage is as unsustainable as some are suggesting. I know it's easy to look at his career stats in junior and say that he has limited offensive upside. Sometimes you have to look at a player's character and progression. I'm not really sure where Bouma will top out at but I don't think his success last year was purely luck.

Jooris on the other hand, had a lot of puck luck early in the season. A couple of goals come immediately to mind where he put the puck on net and it luckily rolled off of the goalie and into the net.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by 868904

I've read a few times now about Bouma's unsustainable shooting percentage last year and I wonder how much it is a result of the extra skills work he put in last year. It's not like he was scoring weak goals, many of his goals last year were skilled snipes and his release and shot looks dramatically improved from previous years.

With his size, speed and fearlessness to get into the prime scoring areas (ie, in front of the net), and his improving shooting skills, I'm not sure if his shooting percentage is as unsustainable as some are suggesting. I know it's easy to look at his career stats in junior and say that he has limited offensive upside. Sometimes you have to look at a player's character and progression. I'm not really sure where Bouma will top out at but I don't think his success last year was purely luck.

Jooris on the other hand, had a lot of puck luck early in the season. A couple of goals come immediately to mind where he put the puck on net and it luckily rolled off of the goalie and into the net.

No matter how hard Bouma worked, he didn't earn himself Crosby hands. His goal total will decrease next year

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

No matter how hard Bouma worked, he didn't earn himself Crosby hands. His goal total will decrease next year

Are you sure? He also suffered a broken hand before the end of the season.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

No matter how hard Bouma worked, he didn't earn himself Crosby hands. His goal total will decrease next year

Except Bouma hardly even shoots if it's not a 2 on 1 or a rebound. Can't compare him to Crosby or Ovechkin where they will still shoot from their knees if they have too.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by DJones

Except Bouma hardly even shoots if it's not a 2 on 1 or a rebound. Can't compare him to Crosby or Ovechkin where they will still shoot from their knees if they have too.

Bouma didn't work so hard that he suddenly has the accuracy of Crosby. He won't maintain that shooting percentage is my point. Unless he significantly increased his shot totals, he isn't hitting 15 goals again.

I'm not saying anything revolutionary here. Goal scoring is a mostly random event. Sometimes more go on and sometimes less. He happened to have a year where everything went in for him. Many players have hit that shooting percentage for one year, only Elite ones do consistently. Is he elite?

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Are you sure? He also suffered a broken hand before the end of the season.

No one can be sure of anything, but count me on the page with SP that we should all expect a decline in Bouma's shooting % next year, at least until he proves otherwise. Last year WAS the anomaly in his career to date, doesn't mean he hasn't just come into his own, but to expect Bouma to remain one of the better shooters in the league would be a silly expectation to keep at this point.

What's a different argument is whether we should expect his production to drop. When people talk about the unsustainability of folks like Hudler, Monahan and Johnny's shooting %, I don't worry about it from a production stand point for a few reasons. One, these are guys who have shown great hands throughout development and their careers at all levels. Two, because watching the games, I believe that trio vastly over passes, and a huge reason they have such good % is they are shooting more often on great opportunities. They may drop their shooting % next year, but that will likely be because they are taking more shots, and we might even see production go up.

With Bouma, you don't really get the same feel. He buried some elite level sniper beauties last year, on his more rare opportunities. As mentioned before, I don't think we can expect him to keep that up, but we may be able to expect that we did underestimate his hands a little, and that he seems to be coming into his own and maybe will generate more opportunites. Because of this though, I think the best case scenario for Bouma is an equaling on the production front, likely obtained by a reduced shooting % but a continued improvement in his overall game which results in more chances.

I'd be excited to be proved wrong on the shooting % front, but for now, this would be my thoughts.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by browna

Bouma better not be pressing too hard...absolutely, a fantastic year out of nowhere, especially for production, in addition to the grit he brings, and attitude, just as Jooris. But hard to make a strong arbitration case for that as a one year goal success. Secondly, his style of play, going all out to block shots and get dirty with his hits, is hard to quantify in stats sometimes, which what these hearings come down to in the end, still.

This should be a reason to want more money, and for the Flames to give it to him.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Bouma didn't work so hard that he suddenly has the accuracy of Crosby.

Come on now, you know that's a ridiculous argument.

Crosby singlehandedly scores goals at speeds that Bouma can't even skate at against multiple defenders draped on him, all on goaltenders' strong side.

Lance Bouma scored back door goals where he's usually the recipient of a David Jones cross-ice feed that started with a Mikael Backlund takeaway and zone entry.

Just because the numbers look similar doesn't mean that you need to draw the same conclusions from them.

One thing to consider is that Bouma being a limited offensive possession player means that he doesn't spend a whole lot of time deflating his shooting percentage on cycling plays and weak-angle shots. Pretty much every goal he scored all last season was a very high quality scoring chance.

I think Bouma is more likely to repeat his 2015 goal scoring than, say, Brodie, who I thought scored a crap tone of fluky goals last season.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Come on now, you know that's a ridiculous argument.

Crosby singlehandedly scores goals at speeds that Bouma can't even skate at against multiple defenders draped on him, all on goaltenders' strong side.

Lance Bouma scored back door goals where he's usually the recipient of a David Jones cross-ice feed that started with a Mikael Backlund takeaway and zone entry.

Just because the numbers look similar doesn't mean that you need to draw the same conclusions from them.

One thing to consider is that Bouma being a limited offensive possession player means that he doesn't spend a whole lot of time deflating his shooting percentage on cycling plays and weak-angle shots. Pretty much every goal he scored all last season was a very high quality scoring chance.

I think Bouma is more likely to repeat his 2015 goal scoring than, say, Brodie, who I thought scored a crap tone of fluky goals last season.

You're proving my point. It's not just accuracy or deking, it's getting to a place for a back door goal. You think he's going to have more of those than all but the elite players again this year?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

You're proving my point. It's not just accuracy or deking, it's getting to a place for a back door goal. You think he's going to have more of those than all but the elite players again this year?

With Giordano, Brodie, Wideman, Russell, and Hamitlon springing him on the rush, with Backlund or Bennett centering him, maybe Jooris and Frolik and Jones and Shore and Colborne on the opposite wings? I'm not afraid to say I would be expecting anywhere from 12 to 18 goals again from Bouma.

It was the Flames system. Bouma was the biggest beneficiary of it outside of the Gaudreau/Hudler pair, but it's not like he was overwhelmingly the only other beneficiary. His linemate David Jones put up almost identical numbers in 11 less games playing the same way.

And there were consequences of it too, it's not like it was a perfect situation for the team. Putting these two North-South guys on Backlund's wing held Backlund back compared to last season where he played with more skilled wingers.

I've already said not to pay him as a 16 goal scorer, but that doesn't mean he just had a ridiculously lucky "shooting percentage inflated" season. Plenty of bottom 6 players have pretty decent shooting percentages. Look at Andrew Shaw.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

You're proving my point. It's not just accuracy or deking, it's getting to a place for a back door goal. You think he's going to have more of those than all but the elite players again this year?

Even if he doesn't get as many gimme goals if his playing style remains the same he could easily maintain the same SH%.

Less golden opportunities would mean less shots and goals but the SH% wouldn't change. If he starts thinking he's a sniper and starts firing shots from the outside then yes his SH% will plummet. But if he keeps to just being a finisher he should do fine.

Byron had a league average SH% but it seemed terrible because he has such grade A scoring opportunities.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

With Giordano, Brodie, Wideman, Russell, and Hamitlon springing him on the rush, with Backlund or Bennett centering him, maybe Jooris and Frolik and Jones and Shore and Colborne on the opposite wings? I'm not afraid to say I would be expecting anywhere from 12 to 18 goals again from Bouma.

It was the Flames system. Bouma was the biggest beneficiary of it outside of the Gaudreau/Hudler pair, but it's not like he was overwhelmingly the only other beneficiary. His linemate David Jones put up almost identical numbers in 11 less games playing the same way.

And there were consequences of it too, it's not like it was a perfect situation for the team. Putting these two North-South guys on Backlund's wing held Backlund back compared to last season where he played with more skilled wingers.

I've already said not to pay him as a 16 goal scorer, but that doesn't mean he just had a ridiculously lucky "shooting percentage inflated" season. Plenty of bottom 6 players have pretty decent shooting percentages. Look at Andrew Shaw.

Andrew Shaw gets PP time. PP time boosts shooting percentage.

Shooting at 15.4% at even strength is very remarkable.

I wouldn't bet on Bouma repeating it, and I think a GM has to play the odds.

[DJones]

Looking at Calgary's stats quickly, it looks like our style of play leads to our Defenseman averaging about 7-8 SH% and our forwards about 12-13 SH%. So if Bouma drops to our forward average of 12.5% from 15.40% he only had 104 shots so he would lose 3 goals.

I don't believe that the whole team got lucky for a whole year so if our forwards SH% drops significantly I'd chalk that up to a change of system (ie, shooting as soon as you have it) and not to "bad luck". If Bouma's style doesn't work next year then so be it but can't say this year was a fluke.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by DJones

Even if he doesn't get as many gimme goals if his playing style remains the same he could easily maintain the same SH%.

Less golden opportunities would mean less shots and goals but the SH% wouldn't change. If he starts thinking he's a sniper and starts firing shots from the outside then yes his SH% will plummet. But if he keeps to just being a finisher he should do fine.

Byron had a league average SH% but it seemed terrible because he has such grade A scoring opportunities.

Less golden opportunities doesn't mean that many less shots.

If he scored 5 tap in's, and they've been removed from his 150 shots, his sh% drops