CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

It went pretty quick! Faster than my ninja vote.
mrkrazypants had me snowed! But on the flip side I did guess Oling being the turned.
( #### you Oling! Haha! )

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by GGG

I killed oling; although not sure if this eliminates the possibility of the spore being recalled at the same time. If no one claims passing the spore its possible we are still at lynch and lose so dont vote until we have discussed it. Im on limited wifi until Saturday.

I agree squiggs is town,I also have diss as town.

What are peoples thoughts about if oling was turned night 5 or night 6

On my phone on vacation, but when did Oling really ramp up his posting frequency and the "noise" he was making in the thread? I think he was turned possibly the night before that, so he was already turned when we killed Timbo (not sure what day # that was). I wasn't able to be around much that game day but when I came to catch up on posts, Oling was creating a ton of noise and confusion in the thread imo, and it seemed deliberate and not consistent with previous days.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Yep, clearly was trying to save mrkajz when I was voting to hammer him.

That doesn't seem especially convincing, to be honest. It was 100% obvious that whoever GGG picked was getting hammered. I would expect that the other hosts would have voted mrkajz to try and distance themselves, that's the only play that makes sense.

Voting for mrkajz on a day when he was 100% getting voted out doesn't overshadow the 3 times you voted for a townie when mrkajz was the 2nd choice/main alternative.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

That doesn't seem especially convincing, to be honest. It was 100% obvious that whoever GGG picked was getting hammered. I would expect that the other hosts would have voted mrkajz to try and distance themselves, that's the only play that makes sense.

Voting for mrkajz on a day when he was 100% getting voted out doesn't overshadow the 3 times you voted for a townie when mrkajz was the 2nd choice/main alternative.

I'm seriously considering putting you on ignore. I've had mrkajz as a top scum suspect for days now. Loik at my list from the day of the timbo lynch. I had him as one of my top 2 then but no one was voting for him. I've voted for him before as well. I only unvoted him once, to avoid a tie on the devo lynch as I've said many times. The other two times he was near the top of the votes I explained my reasons for choosing others. You need to open your eyes. Harping away on me is going to ruin any chance of victory for the town.

[dissentowner]

This thread is too damn quiet.

[GGG]

Vote 1 without known town
activeStick (8): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Oling_Roachinen,
GirlySports (5): Lego Man, mrkajz44
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1)

Vote 2 without known town
GirlySports (9): bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Lego Man, squiggs96, Peanut
Timbo (3): mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen
Hockeyguy15 (2): Party Elephant

Vote 3 without known town
East Coast Flame (7): Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Peanut
mrkajz44 (5): Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Lego Man,
Hockeyguy15 (3): mrkajz44

Vote 4 without known town
Hasn't Voted (1): Oling_Roachinen
Starseed (6): Peanut, mrkajz44, squiggs96
mrkajz44 (7): Hockeyguy15, Starseed, GGG, bizaro86

Vote 5 without known town
devo22 (6): Oling_Roachinen, starseed, mrkajz44
mrkajz44 (3): Hockeyguy15,
Party Elephant (2): squiggs96, bizaro86
Oling_Roachinen (1): Peanut

Vote 6 without town
Hasn't Voted (1): starseed
Timbo (7): Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, mrkajz44, Peanut,
Peanut (3): Hockeyguy15, squiggs96

I took hockey guys vote lists and declared Diss town. Then selected Squiggs as a suspect and worked through the possibilities. His votes were everywhere. He didn't pair well with any scum team.

With oling and Squiggs both town and oling tunnelling hard and bizarrely wanting to give voting control over to me. (Something town oling wouldn't do as he would be confident enough in his choice of lynch to vote in spite of my opinion). This meant oling turned and Squiggs town

With that decided oling wouldn't be pushing me unless he figured he was confident I wouldn't vote scum.

I had a party, Squiggs, peanut on the scum lists so I figured max 1 can be right and looked elsewhere. What started to be noticeable from the votes was peanut protecting mr,Kajz. Those to work as scum perfectly together and should be today's vote.

The 3rd member of the scum team is more interesting. I couldn't add it to my list yesterday as it would have been clear that I suspected oling had turned and didn't want a recall if we had the spore.

It's either Bizaro or Hockeyguy. Hockeyguy through some early throwaway votes on mrkajz starting day 3. He almost gets caught day 4 and has to put it back day 5, day 6 he switches back to the other member of the scum team peanut. He also went hard after girly which was a very defensible scum position to take and pays off well. (Similer to the time machine gambit that won him the last game). I need to go back and verify the tone of his play around lynching mrkajz. Was he actively pushing it or just parking his vote.

He is my first choice for third scum.

Second is Bizaro who has continually played odd. The early info, The tie break, the deadline unvote, this party tunnel which is a piggyback on my party suspicions. His vote pattern fits well, he gets town cred for the late vote because no scum would do it. I don't like Bizaro as much because it would mean all three scum and possibly a turned oling voted for Timbo.

So today we should vote for peanut.

[GGG]

I also don't have a good idea on who the 1 or possibly 2 turned are.

So far we have the spore going:

Night 0 - oling unturned
Night 1 - girly unturned
Night 2 - no one
Night 3 - Seb turned
Night 4 - devo unturned
Night 5 - oling / other turned
Night 6 - other / oling turned
Night 7 - other - ???

I checked the following (keep in mind if I check a person night 5 and they get the spore night 5 I do not kill the,)
Night 1 - party
Night 2 - oling
Night 3 - Seb
Night 4 - Bizaro
Night 5 - Dis
Night 6 - Hockeyguy
Night 7 - oling

[GGG]

Originally Posted by starseed

Good job, GGG. (I assume)

I was almost certain Oling had to be town because of the numbers game and his targeting Girly, Seb, and Devo, but after the mrkaj flip, and paying attention to Oling v Squiggs convos, and how he was aggressively pointing attention away from mrkaj and onto Squiggs, it seemed like he had turned. I am comfortable with putting squiggs in the town category today. One of the reasons I was suspecting him was the possible scum tell of him labeling mrkaj as town earlier in the game. It seemed like it was from a post he wrote when mrkaj was targeted. But obviously it wasn't!

My list for town:
Pux
GGG
Squiggs

Maybe town:
Biz
Diss
HG

Top scum suspects:
PE
Peanut

I have Starseed on my town list but this post makes me suspicious of him. How does Party work with MrK scum?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by GGG

So today we should vote for peanut.

After your last call and knowing you are town I am totally on board with that.

Vote: peanut

[GGG]

What are your thoughts on whose turned

I also think we need more discussion on who to lynch so dont just all pile on peanut.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by GGG

I have Starseed on my town list but this post makes me suspicious of him. How does Party work with MrK scum?

He was vocal about not working with mrk before, but has voted multiple times to save him. See the mrk hunt post I made yesterday.

Day 3 - it was 7-5 mrk over ECF until PE interrupts the four-player mrk vote train for ECF, followed by devo's switch to ECF, then peanut finally clinches it at 8-6 ECF.

Day 4 - 2 votes for peanut, then squiggs switched to mrk and timbo follows, then after you vote for PE it is:

PE - 3 (you, me, biz)
me - 2 (Oling, peanut)
mrk - 2 (squiggs, timbo)
devo - 1 (pux)
HG - diss voted, then unvoted

So then mrk voted for me to bring me into a tie with PE, followed shortly by PE voting for me to take me into the lead. HG had also voted for mrk between them for a 3-way tie before PE voted me into the lead.

Eventually mrk, PE, and peanut held their vote for me until the tie happened. IMO at this time they were not being too vocal in campaigning for me just in case biz or oling had voted for mrk. (could oling have been turned by then and not known which of us were scum, and played it safe by letting the tie happen?)

I can see biz working with mrk elsewhere in the game, including day 3, and maybe the late vote was intentional on day 4, but I think that is not as likely as PE working to prevent mrk's lynch. HG, on the other hand, has not been working with mrk as far as I can tell (that does not necessarily indicate that he is certainly town, but I doubt scum would have voted for mrkaj rather than at least a third party on day 4)

[starseed]

Originally Posted by GGG

What are your thoughts on whose turned

I also think we need more discussion on who to lynch so dont just all pile on peanut.

As for peanut, I am totally on board with that! I agree that we should wait to allow for more discussion on the third scum.

[starseed]

Also, I think PE mentioned today that his voting to lynch mrkaj is an indication that he is not aligned with him. To me, that is ridiculous. Of course the mafia are going to abandon him and jump at the opportunity to be on the list of those who voted him out. There was no way GGG's choice was going to survive.

Also, I do believe I was the one campaigning for mrkaj at the start of the day. Before GGG revealed iirc. Who did PE advocate voting for at the time?

[starseed]

Originally Posted by starseed

Day 3 - it was 7-5 mrk over ECF until PE interrupts the four-player mrk vote train for ECF, followed by devo's switch to ECF, then peanut finally clinches it at 8-6 ECF.

I missed one unvote for each side. It was 6-4 for mrk before PE's vote for ECF. Peanut's vote then made it 7-5 for ECF.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by starseed

Also, I think PE mentioned today that his voting to lynch mrkaj is an indication that he is not aligned with him. To me, that is ridiculous. Of course the mafia are going to abandon him and jump at the opportunity to be on the list of those who voted him out. There was no way GGG's choice was going to survive.

Also, I do believe I was the one campaigning for mrkaj at the start of the day. Before GGG revealed iirc. Who did PE advocate voting for at the time?

I advocated voting for oling . He was the one I was most sure about. I don't have time to do quotes as I'm at work

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

After your last call and knowing you are town I am totally on board with that.

Vote: peanut

Who is your final member after peanut?

[starseed]

Oling was obviously town, turned or not, otherwise there would have probably been more than 2 turned, and we would have lost by yesterday. We should be voting for hosts only. Not the turned.

Mind you, scum would not mind voting for turned if they needed town cred.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Sorry, I've got limited ability to write today and my posts will be a mess since using a phone that I can barely type on or copy paste but

With almost certainly 6-5, we need to be perfect. GGG and Puxlut need to come up with someone and everyone needs to vote with them. My vote is theirs, although they should know who I want to vote for.

Squiggs suggesting we look at the ECF vote and who he trusted and the people who voted for him:
GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, devo22, Peanut

The Host were probably okay with ECF staying in because he didn't trust the confirmed townies. Since I strongly believe Squiggs96 is host and I know he wanted us to take a look at that list and who ECF trusted, I'm thinking there's maybe only 1 host max in the ECF vote. That would mean that there's at least 2 host in here:

mrkajz44, dissentowner, Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Lego Man (Starseed).

This is day 7 so oling is turned he lists mr Kajz. Does he have a 2nd scum in there?

[starseed]

Oling would not have known who the scum are, but he would have had more information than us. Therefore, it is possible that he got a message to target squiggs, and used that to determine that mrkaj and maybe biz were scum? (biz had squiggs on his list at some point yesterday I think, would have to check timeline)

Oling did try to imply that mrkaj was turned, probably to get GGG to waste an investigation. Therefore he would have at least strongly suspected mrkaj was scum, hence the strong push to get GGG to lynch squiggs.

Back home now, so I will be looking into the biz timeline.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

My top three right now are party elephant, starseed, and squiggs.

Party elephant is as discussed endlessly. I'd be willing to bet the game on him being host/turned, but I realize I'm getting no support on that. Honestly, if I suddenly started getting a huge rush of party elephant support that would make me question the people who changed their minds, as that might indicate that he was town and they were going for the last kill.

For starseed, I've had suspicions of him since he was Lego. We ran him up the flagpole once, but it got lost in the day with the tie. He's kind of always been my second choice for scum, (which is ironically where he ended up on this list). That by itself makes me extra suspicious, they have played scummy enough to be on the radar, but not enough to ever attract much voting momentum.

As for you squiggs, this whole oling crusade with a bunch of evidence from last game seems really suspicious to me. Sure, it makes sense to see who's playing style compares to last game in day 1/2 when there isn't much to go on. In day 7, when the actions from this game can be evaluated, I feel like you're either letting your emotions get the better of you if you're town, or playing that card to try and make your oling case more convincing if you're host/turned. I'm 50/50 on you, so if I see momentum for squiggs votes from people I think are more likely than not to be townies I'd consider a vote.

Here is Bizs list from day 7.