Flames cap situation 2016-17

[ricardodw]

There was a post that suggested Hudler would be re-signed/ extended for 7M.

Gave me pause to think if that was possible.

Current Flames contract cap hits for 2016-17 (not counting Smid's 3.5M)

Dougie Hamilton - $5,750,000
Dennis Wideman - $5,250,000
T.J. Brodie - $4,650,000
Michael Frolik - $4,300,000
Mikael Backlund - $3,575,000
Mason Raymond - $3,150,000
Matt Stajan - $3,125,000
Deryk Engelland - $2,916,668
Brandon Bollig - $1,250,000
Sam Bennett - $925,000

That's 10 contracts... Bennett has a chance to get 2.5M in bonuses

Then guesses

Monahan - 6,000,000
Gaudreau - 6,000,000
Gio - 7,500,000
Hudler - 7,000,000

Total cap hit 61.4 M

Having the cap go up by 5% would put it at 75M

That leaves just under 14M to sign 7-8 players -- 5-6 Skaters and 2 goalies including Bouma and Colborne and Russell.

This kind of points out that the Flames don't plan to sign Hudler to a big contract... his extra cap room was spent on Frolik.

The Flames spending spree (Backlund, Hamilton, Frolik) is over .... There is absolutely no room to take on any more cap.

The 2015-16 Flames roster is going to be pretty close to as good as it gets for the next few years. Any team improvement will depend on organization growth and development.

[K1LLswitch]

I still see lots of room for Hudler.

Raymond may be gone or bought out and another D may be moved.

The scarier year to me is the one Bennet gets his big contract.

The young guys may have bridge contracts similar to Brodie and Hamilton too and stay under $6m.

We are in a good place right now

[heep223]

A poster has a spreadsheet setup for this, can someone post it in this thread?

[Enoch Root]

plenty of room for next year - still lots of fluidity

[OutOfTheCube]

To clarify, my $7 million comment was based on him having a similar season to this past one and going to UFA.

If halfway through the season he's pacing for 50 points instead of 80 I don't think he'll get that kind of coin. And there's also the Treliving effect.

[bizaro86]

I suspect you'll only get Gio for $7.5 if you give him term, which I think is probably a mistake. I think we'd be much better giving him $9MM on a short contract (3 years?). Then if he's still got it he can get Selanne style one year deals, or you use that space for things like Bennett's next contract.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

That leaves just under 14M to sign 7-8 players -- 5-6 Skaters and 2 goalies including Bouma and Colborne and Russell.

You're assuming Engelland, Smid, Raymond, Bollig aren't moved to make space. That's about 11 million right there that will have just one year remaining. All "high-character" guys too. And the team's better without them.

Losing Bouma, Colborne, Russell wouldn't be ideal, but they're still the kind of Ladd/Byfuglien tier 2 players you look to replace with ELC guys and bridge contract guys like Wotherspoon, Culkin, Kulak, Hathaway, Agostino etc.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

You're assuming Engelland, Smid, Raymond, Bollig aren't moved to make space. That's about 11 million right there that will have just one year remaining. All "high-character" guys too. And the team's better without them.

Losing Bouma, Colborne, Russell wouldn't be ideal, but they're still the kind of Ladd/Byfuglien tier 2 players you look to replace with ELC guys and bridge contract guys like Wotherspoon, Culkin, Kulak, Hathaway, Agostino etc.

I am not counting Smid.... Bollig could be moved tomorrow but does not help the cap situation at all. so having Raymond and Engelland claimed on waivers saves 6M


What sort of team would want Raymond and Engelland at 3M / per without some of their dead salary coming back?

Have they gotten better since the Flames offered them a better contract than anyone else would? I don't recall a whole bunch of GMs or even board posters saying how bad they felt that they missed out on the Raymond Engelland UFA deals.

[Benched]

Not sure I see a way that Jones is a Flames a year from now, especially if we want to keep Hudler.

Wideman everyone says 'can be moved', but he has a NTC, so we'd have to work with him on that.

Some of those 'extra' contracts would be nice to be moved, not sure it'll happen, but in Treliving I trust!

Smid LTIR would be huge for us.

It's going to be tight depending on what our RFAs get, what Gio and the kids get, and what 'extra' pieces we can move as to whether or not Hudler stays.

I'm hoping he will, but if the numbers don't work, this may be his last season (or less) as a Flame.

[BrownDrake]

Hudler is as good as gone given recent signings...either shortly or at the deadline. He won't be signing a one year deal, not at his age so there is no room for him in 2017-18

Hopefully the Flames can sign at least 2 (Gaudreau/Bennett) of the big three to bridge deals with good cap hits in the 4.0 to 5.0 range (depending on play this year)...Mony is almost assured of a longer term deal to eat up a few years of Free Agency - probably a 6 year x 6.5 million deal - if he has a year in the 25 Goal & 35 Assist range.

For 2017-18 (assume Cap is 74.0):

Gio (Assume 7.5)
Hamilton
Brodie
4th Dman (assume 4.0)
Total 22.0 million

Backlund/Frolik/Stajan (11.0 million)

Gaudreau/Mony/Bennett (16.5 million)

Assume Ferland/Bouma (4.0 million)

Total 53.5 million or 72% of Cap (assume 74.0 million) on 12 players

Now add a number one goalie at 4.5 and a backup at 1.0 (5.5) on 14 players
we are at 59 million.

That leaves 15 million to sign 8 players - that's about as close to cap hell as you are going to get. Probably you will need 3 to 4 forwards at minimums of (750K per) so you can have a bit of powder left for your 5th and 6th defenseman and another depth forward. Calgary won't want to be at 74.0 to start that season, ideally at 70 to 71 so you have some room to add if need be. That means 11 to 12 million to sign 8 players - very difficult to maintain depth.

Lovely situation to be in with all these guys succeeding and the new additions but this roster (depth players) is going to change drastically.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I don't think they are in bad shape, and I don't think Hudler will be the problem. If he is looking at a $7 mil cap hit, I don't think he will stick around. So much will depend on term for him, so it is really hard to speculate, but either they open up his money for others, or they need to sign the 7-8 players for $14-16 mil. Quite possible, as we essentially talking about bottom D pairing and 3/4 liners. If your other assumptions are close, Brad and company have done an excellent job locking down the core.

The wild card for me is in goal. They have over $7 mil locked down for this year, which is too much. One or both of Hiller/Ramo will be gone and I would suggest the backup will be on an ELC or much cheaper deal. The starter is next to impossible to predict.

[Benched]

that yeah, 8 million @ goal will change, that's for sure.

what that looks like, I'm not sure, but my guess is we'll be spending less there.

[BigRed]

Jones proved to be a useful player but his big contract was really there just to get us to the cap floor.

I wouldn't mind seeing him as 3rd line RW but not at that pricetag. We're going to need someone like Poirier to emerge and take that spot from him.

Lose him, Engelland, Raymond, Bollig and probably Stajan, and you're looking at $12 mln gone right there.

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by heep223

A poster has a spreadsheet setup for this, can someone post it in this thread?

Thats me. Here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[Itse]

I have serious doubts about whether we can re-sign Giordano.
Both the money and the term Giordanos side is asking seems way more than makes sense for us. Especially the term.

If we do however, I think it's guaranteed that someone else (Wideman) is moved. Otherwise we have just too much money tied up in defense.

Raymond I think is gone anyway, next summer at the latest.

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by Itse

I have serious doubts about whether we can re-sign Giordano.
Both the money and the term Giordanos side is asking seems way more than makes sense for us. Especially the term.

If we do however, I think it's guaranteed that someone else (Wideman) is moved. Otherwise we have just too much money tied up in defense.

Raymond I think is gone anyway, next summer at the latest.

we have plenty of room for Gio, as long has he is ok with $7.5M/yr. See the spreadsheet I linked earlier in this thread.

[Sylvanfan]

At worst you can look to buyout the trio of Raymond, Engelland, and Smid. Buyout will result in an extra year of a 3 million dollar cap bogey, but you would clear 6 million off your cap for the 2016-2017 season and your replacement players for those guys could all be 700 to 800k per year players. Really that's the key season. Fit your group in a cap number that season, and you should be in good shape moving ahead.

I don't see anyway in which the Flames retain both Hudler, and Giordano with contracts that have 7 million per season cap hits.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

we have plenty of room for Gio, as long has he is ok with $7.5M/yr. See the spreadsheet I linked earlier in this thread.

It's not about whether we can sign him. I don't think we'll want to give him what he wants to get.

7.5M probably means you have to give him 7-8 years, and that's just stupid term on a 31-year old player, especially given his recent injury-shortened seasons and relatively short period of elite play.

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by Itse

It's not about whether we can sign him. I don't think we'll want to give him what he wants to get.

7.5M probably means you have to give him 7-8 years, and that's just stupid term on a 31-year old player, especially given his recent injury-shortened seasons and relatively short period of elite play.

Agreed that a 7-8 length is not gonna happen. I have it pegged as 5yr, $7.5M (total of $37.5M).

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

Thats me. Here is the link:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

incorrect sum(ranges) leaves Frolik and Hamilton not counted in the totals