CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Hockeyguy15]

GGG, thoughts on Mrkajz? On Day 4 the only people left that voted for him are you, me, Bizaro, and starseed.

You're town, that leaves 3 other people. How likely is it that Mrkajz is town and at least 2 of me, Bizaro, and starseed are hosts?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

One thing that jumped out at me yesterday after finding out that Seb was killed by the captain was that Squiggs very quickly brought up the fact it was possible for scum to have killed Seb and not the agent. Yes it was in the rules but most people assumed that it was just the agent. The people predisposed to bringing up the captain killed Seb were the people that new. The agent and the host.

I also have oling as town as it's highly likely that night 4 Seb was infected. It makes no sense for scum oling to campaign for the killing of one of his turned when it was the first one they got. No someone might argue thats what oling would want you to believe but that would mean he is double gambiting with the first play on Girlysports and then the second play on Seb. How much town cred do you really need.

How do you explain this Squiggs?

How do I explain what? I'll assume each paragraph is a question.

1) Here's my take on it when I was asked about it right after I suggested it: http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthr...55#post5336955

I thought it was a possibility. Assuming you are the Agent, and this is not a fake reveal, then I'm right. I felt the whole thing seemed way too perfect of me being set up. This seems like it's the case. I wanted to think some things through, and not go with the blatantly obvious. It seems like that paid off. I think the plan was hatched because I was starting to get some other things right too.

The two people who were quick to say the Agent killed Seb were HG and bizaro.

I gave my scenarios, but I stated at that time, that of my scenarios, I thought it was the Agent who killed Seb. Later you, GGG, bring up asking me why I'd think the Captain killed Seb. Assuming you are the Agent, why would you ask this and bring it to the forefront? If I was a host, why would I ever bring up this possibility if no one else had? Oling once again jumps on this list, and says I shouldn't have made it in that order and other options should have been listed. It turns out my list had the right option, even if it wasn't something he thought of. He says me putting this option is weird. Assuming I'm not being set up again, I guess it's not so weird now. When mrk gives his list of 4 things about me that are scummy, one of them is me guessing the Captain killed Seb.

2) I disagree that Oling wouldn't go after his own turned. What better way to gain town cred. I think Oling is looking for all of the town cred he can get. It's not a bad situation to be in, especially when you get down to the last few votes. Many are saying you need as many confirmed townies as you can get. If you can convince the town that a host is one of our own, we are screwed. If he gets that status, and is a host, the town loses. I don't want that to happen.

My guess on the three hosts are Oling, mrkajz and bizaro.

[GGG]

Oling going after his own turned night 5 would make sense but why on day 4.

Night 0 someone turned not party, diss, biz, pux, Seb, or HG,
Night 1 girly
Night 2 no one
Night 3 Seb

At this point in the game you At the end of day 4 you would be 5 vs 8. So a conversion and a mislynch wins the game. Yet they allowed a tie to occur and campaigned for the agent to kill SebC.

Also why would oling try to get more town cred in that dispute rather than one of the other two.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

GGG, thoughts on Mrkajz? On Day 4 the only people left that voted for him are you, me, Bizaro, and starseed.

You're town, that leaves 3 other people. How likely is it that Mrkajz is town and at least 2 of me, Bizaro, and starseed are hosts?

Why would 2 have to be hosts. Couldn't there be two on Starseed and one on Mrkajz.

I have to reread everything and this is not a good week for me as I leave camping on canada day. So I will try to get as much done.

With that list I like Bizarro as scum.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

Why would 2 have to be hosts. Couldn't there be two on Starseed and one on Mrkajz.

I have to reread everything and this is not a good week for me as I leave camping on canada day. So I will try to get as much done.

With that list I like Bizarro as scum.

Because if Mrkajz was town and starseed is a host then you would likely have 2 hosts voting for Mrkajz.

I really think Mrkajz is a host, so I am thinking the other 2 hosts voted for starseed.

[starseed]

Mrkajz44 Hunt Day 3

• Devo22 and ECF (known townies) start the votes mrkaj around the third day of Day 3.
• Pux, GGG, and Seb (known townies) put three votes on ECF, however pux pulled off.
• Oling votes ECF, then ECF unvotes mrkaj and votes for biz.
• HG votes mrkaj to make it 3-2 for ECF
• biz votes ECF
• squiggs votes mrkaj followed by 3 known townies (from my perspective), me Timbo, and ECF again - 6-4 for mrkaj at this point.

At this point, the ECF voters were 2 known townies, and 2 unknowns (Oling/biz). The mrkaj voters were 4 known townies to 2 unknowns (from my perspective), the unknowns were HG and squiggs.

Then, the vote flipped to ECF with PE switching from HG to ECF, followed by known townie devo flipping from mrkaj to ECF, before Peanut finally made it 7-5 for ECF.


Mrkaj Hunt Day 4

• Squiggs and known townie Timbo put a couple on Mrkaj.
• Two unknowns put two on me - Oling and Peanut.
• 4 unknowns split between me and Mrkaj, Mrkaj and PE for me, HG and diss for mrkaj. 4-4 at this point.
• Known townie devo breaks the tie in my favour. 5-4. Unknown Oling then flips to mrkaj before quickly revoting to squiggs. 5-3 mrkaj.
• Known townie pux switches to me, then unknown squiggs flips from mrkaj to me. 5-4 starseed.
• I vote for mrkaj to save myself, then Diss flips to me because of it. 6-4 starseed.
• Unknown Seb (he may have been turned either then, or the next day I assume?) votes for mrkaj, then GGG saved me from lynch. 6-6

1 of 6 starseed voters were known town. If I include GGG, then 4 of 6 mrkaj voters were known town (from my perspective).

2 Mrkaj lynch voters who were passengers have been lynched out of the game. Are they the targets of the hosts for elimination/turning?

[Oling_Roachinen]

I've read the exchange between Squiggs96 and myself again.

Day 4 Squiggs96 goes hard for a couple things, first that he voted to save East Coast Flame (Hey, he tried to save a townie, there's no way he is host!) and who would make good spore candidates.

Right out of the gate:

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Wrong. You go back and see who the dead trusted and who they implicated. I'm looking at how easily the votes came off the neutrals and mrk and how they ended up on ECF.

My guess is Oling got the spore again. Whether he's infected or not remains to be seen.

I'm golfing now but will expand later tonight on all my thoughts.

He's leading discussion but doing it in the least conspicuous way possible. He wants us to see who changed their votes to ECF, but he doesn't want to do it himself. He doesn't want to get in trouble for naming any of the names.

He puts me out for the spore, but it's "just a guess." If people agree with him he can come back "after golfing." He's trying to generate discussion with how he wants discussion to go, but not look like he's leading the charge.

He started Day 4 right out of the gate that I was a spore target. When pressed, by others and myself, he suggests that the spore would go to a confirmed town.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

You and Puxlut seem to have as much confirmed town status as anybody around here. I stated it in my post, and you confirmed it here. I believe it would be a good idea to send it to a confirmed townie. Since it's a waste to send it to Pux, you are the only other option.

Those are his words, not out of context but feel free to reread that post and the ones before it. Notice he's missing SebC. Again, since we're probably on our last day, this was not a small mistake. He thinks that the spore will go to a confirmed townie and picks me, but not SebC...the actual confirmed townie who ended up being turned.

Now we have a back and forth and he changes his story quickly. He's not calling me confirmed town, and he wants to be perfectly clear that he wasn't. The other two hosts clearly didn't like how he, at least super heavily implied, that I was a confirmed townie, so he backtracks and makes it look like I'm twisting his words. He keeps saying stuff like that so he doesn't have to actual discuss the relative parts of the discussion.

GGG, when you asked who I would check and I told you SebC, that's when I was somewhat sure you were the Government Agent, or at least a Host trying to make it look like you were. We had the discussion yesterday when you did hint that you knew SebC was killed by the Host and as I clue in you can see my shift in arguing that the Government Agent should reveal since it could be lynch and learn to being okay with it. Squiggs96 comes out with the possibilities for what happened. He was right, he correctly listed that the host killed SebC, but he left out far more "likelier" options.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

My guess is you are right that Seb was turned on night 4 to put heat on me. I expected it was a possibility, so I'm not surprised at the start of Day 6. Since Seb was killed on night 5, there are four possibilities.

1. He was turned on night 3, but the Agent investigated Oling on night 4 at my urging. Seb sent the spore to someone on night 4 and that person is also turned. (Emphasis added)

2. Seb was turned on night 4. The Agent investigated him on night 5 and killed him.

3. Seb was turned on either night 3 or 4. Devo held the spore once he was lynched. The Captain wanted the spore back so he/she could pass it on Night 5, so he killed Seb in order to get it back.

4. Devo did not have the spore, but the captain wanted the spore anyways and killed Seb to regain control.

He's not considering part b of number 1...that the person wasn't turned. Why? Why is he jumping to the person being getting the spore being turned when we, at least the townie, have no information on that. It's a 50/50 coin toss and he didn't even consider the possibility that the spore carrier wasn't turned.

It's like he knew there was a turned and forgot of the possibility that the spore carrier may not be turned. And today we find out that the spore carrier almost certainly was turned.

Now I did lead the charge on Devo22. It's likely he had the spore which is why the Host killed SebC to get it back. I don't think if I was Host I would purposely lead the charge against the spore carrier. There is some advantage, making sure the spore goes where you want, but at the cost of a turned it's probably not the best strategy unless they were really afraid SebC was going to die anyways.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Sorry, I've got limited ability to write today and my posts will be a mess since using a phone that I can barely type on or copy paste but

With almost certainly 6-5, we need to be perfect. GGG and Puxlut need to come up with someone and everyone needs to vote with them. My vote is theirs, although they should know who I want to vote for.

Squiggs suggesting we look at the ECF vote and who he trusted and the people who voted for him:
GGG, SebC, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, devo22, Peanut

The Host were probably okay with ECF staying in because he didn't trust the confirmed townies. Since I strongly believe Squiggs96 is host and I know he wanted us to take a look at that list and who ECF trusted, I'm thinking there's maybe only 1 host max in the ECF vote. That would mean that there's at least 2 host in here:

mrkajz44, dissentowner, Hockeyguy15, squiggs96, Lego Man (Starseed).

[GGG]

Do the hosts know the location of the spore at all times?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Do the hosts know the location of the spore at all times?

I don't think it's explicit in the rules, but they can tell the turned who to send the spore to.

[GGG]

Why are you deferring your vote to me oling, it makes no sense.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Snip

I just want to make one thing perfectly clear. I didn't come back "after golfing". I was golfing. I shot an 85, even after I finished bogey-double-bogey on the final three holes. It wasn't a good finish, but the rest of the round was very good.

I look forward to the rest of Day 7 with you continuing your plight against me with the same tired, incorrect arguments. My favourite part of your post is asking why I didn't think of one scenario, when that scenario turned out to be false. Seriously, let's argue over why I didn't think of something that didn't happen. You're grasping at straws with this one. With GGG revealing he is the Agent, and my scenario coming to fruition where I am being set up with the Captain killing Seb, you are thinking that makes me look bad. Nope. Swing and a miss.

Since you like bringing up posts, I'm guessing you will like these:

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Mrkajz44 and Timbo didn't work out so well, fizzled out. But Timbo and Squiggs96 connection grew, especially today for me. I could be wrong.

Nope. You're not wrong. Timbo and I were like minded in our opinion of you, and our vanilla passenger alignment.

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

The Timbo and Squiggs96 connection didn't start today, I had my suspicion of them for weeks.

You are right again! Congrats! You have been suspicious of two townies. That doesn't surprise me.

[starseed]

Originally Posted by GGG

Why are you deferring your vote to me oling, it makes no sense.

To pressure others, including the hosts, to also vote with you. The townies could be fractured when we all need to be united if it is 6-5. Having you two pick the target may be the only way to make sure all the townies are voting together.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

Why are you deferring your vote to me oling, it makes no sense.

Because you have revealed as the Agent. He wants two townies to vote, he'll follow, and then he can deny any culpability of whoever dies if it's town. I've called him out on leading the charge to previous town deaths.

Since you have said you think he's town, he doesn't think you're going to vote for him. If you, Pux and him vote for anyone else, that's three votes out of 11 right there.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Why are you deferring your vote to me oling, it makes no sense.

I believe it's 6-5. It's day 7 and we have had one reveal of the spore, the very first day. Consider the possibilities and it's not likely that there is less than 2 turned out there. If we vote two different ways the 5 hosts jump on whoever is wrong and win the game, if we're both right, they still win with a 5-5 tie.

All the townies need to work together, all 6 of us need to vote correctly. I'll vote with you and Puxlut, I hope you vote squiggs96.

[starseed]

Glossed over the unvote plan before

Unvote

[GGG]

I think everyone needs to make a case for themselves of why they are town. What actions and voting patterns demonstrate that you are town.

Also if you all could do this before the end of the day tomorrow that would be great. I pretty much have to vote tomorrow based on holiday plans.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Because you have revealed as the Agent. He wants two townies to vote, he'll follow, and then he can deny any culpability of whoever dies if it's town. I've called him out on leading the charge to previous town deaths.

Run through the scenarios, it's possibly 6-5.

Night 0 - Oling
Night 1 - Girly
Night 2 - No One
Night 3 - SebC
Night 4 - Devo22?
Night 5 - Someone (Host pick, no reveal, that's a turned)
Night 6- Someone else (~50/50 chance - maybe host, maybe Puxlut)

Do your own, the point is that if you're town you need to know that the possibility for 6-5 exists. If Someone else is turned, it's a lynch or lose day with 6-5. We know Puxlut is town, I strongly believe GGG is town. I want them to pick, and I want everyone to vote there way...not just myself. If we don't vote with GGG and Puxlut, we open up the door to losing today. I'd rather risk voting with townies because if it's 6-5, I need to. If it's 7-4, they still are going to go for who they think are the best scum.

Squiggs96, if I'm host, I'm still giving the possibility of voting out 3 or 4 of my buddies right? It's funny on the possibility of a lynch or lose day that following the confirmed townies on their vote is being made out to be suspicious.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Run through the scenarios, it's possibly 6-5.

Night 0 - Oling
Night 1 - Girly
Night 2 - No One
Night 3 - SebC
Night 4 - Devo22?
Night 5 - Someone (Host pick, no reveal, that's a turned)
Night 6- Someone else (~50/50 chance - maybe host, maybe Puxlut)

Do your own, the point is that if you're town you need to know that the possibility for 6-5 exists. If Someone else is turned, it's a lynch or lose day with 6-5. We know Puxlut is town, I strongly believe GGG is town. I want them to pick, and I want everyone to vote there way...not just myself. If we don't vote with GGG and Puxlut, we open up the door to losing today. I'd rather risk voting with townies because if it's 6-5, I need to. If it's 7-4, they still are going to go for who they think are the best scum.

Squiggs96, if I'm host, I'm still giving the possibility of voting out 3 or 4 of my buddies right? It's funny on the possibility of a lynch or lose day that following the confirmed townies on their vote is being made out to be suspicious.

I've given lists. My last list was even one that was a direct response to your list and scenarios. You thought there was no way a host would kill Seb. How'd that work out? I was the one who suggested devo died with the spore, and the host killed Seb to get it back. You kept saying how I shouldn't have thought that.

How would you feel if GGG and Puxlut decided to put your name down? I'm partly convinced you are just pulling this one last temper tantrum to take the heat off of your fellow hosts. By trying to rehash an argument with me, you're hoping no one else has to post, and you can die without implicating anyone else.

It's suspicious because you've been known to do weird things in mafia. In other games you've voted for yourself, but quickly pulled that vote off. When you were scum you gave your list of probable mafia which was me, Timbo, and two people who were actually mafia. This is starting to sound like deja vu here. It's supsicious because you are trying to absolve yourself of blame if they lynch a townie and that you are just following along. It's suspicious because they haven't made a target yet. If they pick a target that's town, you can just vote with them because you said you would. If they pick a target that's a host, you can then steer the vote, with some new made up reason why they should switch.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I've given lists. My last list was even one that was a direct response to your list and scenarios.

What? Where did I say list.

[quote= You thought there was no way a host would kill Seb. How'd that work out? I was the one who suggested devo died with the spore, and the host killed Seb to get it back. You kept saying how I shouldn't have thought that.[/quote]
My issue was that you considered one scenario that a person was turned last night that didn't include the counterpart...that he wasn't turned. You considered an option where a coin had to flip heads, but not that the coin flipped tails. It was another mistake.

Originally Posted by Squiggs96

How would you feel if GGG and Puxlut decided to put your name down?

If they do, I hope it's 7-4 and the spore doesn't turn anyone. That would mean tomorrow would be 6-4 and they still have a shot. I still believe that the far and away best bet is allowing Puxlut and GGG decide the vote. Afraid of giving townies the power? Why would you do ....oh yeah, I remember now.

Originally Posted by Squiggs96

If they pick a target that's a host, you can then steer the vote, with some new made up reason why they should switch.

Everyone in the town should agree now that they need to vote with GGG and Puxlut. Regardless of anything, regardless of who they pick. If your town, let's put our fate in the townies hands. Take back some control, throw the dice. I can understand why a host like Squiggs96 would be afraid of giving the power to a strong townie like GGG though.