CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[bizaro86]

I'm thinking this might not be a day for big 'vote trains' or taking a bunch of people for a 'run up the ladder.' We've got to be pretty close to losing this game (if there are 2 turned we're at lynch-or-lose) which means we should try to build a consensus.

[squiggs96]

I get that not everyone has posted on Day 7, but I figured if you were a passenger that received the spore on Night 6 and then sent it somewhere, you'd want to make some time to come back here and let us know what happened. This leads me to believe I might be correct that Seb was killed by the Captain to regain the spore.

Does anyone think there is a chance the Agent is turned? Obviously the hosts know who the turned are at all points. They'd wouldn't know if they turned the Agent. Maybe Oling asking for the Agent to reveal is a ploy to see if they turned or not. Maybe it was because the hosts were in control of the spore and wanted to send it to the agent. If the hosts could find out who the Agent is, or pressure someone who is turned to act like the agent, they could try and pass it off one of the scum as a "confirmed townie". I'd like to have some other thoughts on this.

[squiggs96]

To follow up on the previous post. I have a suspicion some of the Agent reveal talk was to ensure the town thought the Agent was still town. If the Captain killed Seb it might have been to help convince us the Agent is still on our side when it might not be the case.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

To follow up on the previous post. I have a suspicion some of the Agent reveal talk was to ensure the town thought the Agent was still town. If the Captain killed Seb it might have been to help convince us the Agent is still on our side when it might not be the case.

I would say if that's true they did a terrible job of it. Oling was the only one pushing for that, and as I recall it nobody else really agreed with him. Responses ranged from "definitely not" to "if the agent thinks they have information that would help." I would think if the mafia/turned had that as a plan at least one person would have agreed with oling...

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I would say if that's true they did a terrible job of it. Oling was the only one pushing for that, and as I recall it nobody else really agreed with him. Responses ranged from "definitely not" to "if the agent thinks they have information that would help." I would think if the mafia/turned had that as a plan at least one person would have agreed with oling...

Do you even read my posts or do you just think "PE is scum, skim skim skim"

I was on board with a reveal and posted as such multiple times. I'm on my phone but I'll dig up the quotes when I get home.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I would say if that's true they did a terrible job of it. Oling was the only one pushing for that, and as I recall it nobody else really agreed with him. Responses ranged from "definitely not" to "if the agent thinks they have information that would help." I would think if the mafia/turned had that as a plan at least one person would have agreed with oling...

After too many people said not to, it would be really suspicious for only one other person to say yes to the reveal. From your list GGG, Timbo, Peanut, mrkajz said no. Later after your list was made I also said no. In that group, Timbo is confirmed town, being that he is dead. I think there needed to be someone on Oling's team disagreeing with him, which I think is mrkajz. I feel Peanut is most likely turned at this point.

Once there was overwhelming opposition against Oling asking for the reveal, then whoever said yes to doing it would be tied to Oling. Whether this person is town or scum, it's a bad play for whatever group they would be attached to.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Do you even read my posts or do you just think "PE is scum, skim skim skim"

I was on board with a reveal and posted as such multiple times. I'm on my phone but I'll dig up the quotes when I get home.

I know this wasn't directed at me, but I missed it if you said to reveal

[squiggs96]

Day 5 - Oling led the vote against devo. At one point the votes were 5-3-2-2-1-1 (mrk, PE, devo, squiggs, starseed, Oling).

In order the following people voted out devo:

Oling, starseed, Pux, GGG, bizaro, PE, (bizaro removes), mrkajz

mrk was in quite a bit of trouble, with PE in a minor bit. A huge voting swing happened in the above order.

Day 6 - Oling starts after me and the votes start out in order:

Oling, GGG, starseed, PE, mrkajz

At one point there are 9 votes (out of 12), with 4 on me and 5 on a split of PE, mrk, Oling. Later there are 11 votes in play (only HG abstaining), and still none on Timbo. Oling then votes for Timbo late on June 23rd. Shortly after Timbo accuses Oling of many of the same things I have been accusing him of, plus some new ones I agreed with.

Now the votes start to join Oling:

Oling, diss, PE, bizaro, mrkajz, Peanut, Timbo

On the vote against devo (DEAD TOWNIE), Timbo (DEAD TOWNIE) and squiggs (ALIVE TOWNIE), Oling started it and was followed by each of:

• mrkajz and Party Elephant

Starseed followed on the first two, but did not vote at all when Timbo was lynched. GGG followed on the first but led a fruitless vote against Peanut, that didn't have much merit.

As our numbers continue to dwindle, and the odds get worse against us, Oling continues to lead us into lynching townies. mrkajz and PE help him each step of the way. This needs to stop. It's not likely they are all hosts, but they might just be brazen enough to try it. I'm hoping today that the town can band together, lynch Oling, and take a positive step towards winning this game. We aren't going to get many more opportunities. With each passing day we have lost a member of our town, and the odds of the town getting infected with the spore increase. Let's not accept this anymore.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

After too many people said not to, it would be really suspicious for only one other person to say yes to the reveal. From your list GGG, Timbo, Peanut, mrkajz said no. Later after your list was made I also said no. In that group, Timbo is confirmed town, being that he is dead. I think there needed to be someone on Oling's team disagreeing with him, which I think is mrkajz. I feel Peanut is most likely turned at this point.

Once there was overwhelming opposition against Oling asking for the reveal, then whoever said yes to doing it would be tied to Oling. Whether this person is town or scum, it's a bad play for whatever group they would be attached to.

Timbo was the one who made the list, not me.

Also, party elephant, I do read your posts. I'd like to find some additional evidence to go with my suspicion, although I'd be willing to change my mind if the facts changed as well. (I thought Devo was scum until his death post, for example). I apologize I missed you saying you were in favour of the government agent revealing. I'll add that to the list of suspicious things you've done.

[Party Elephant]

For reference's sake.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

snip

In case you haven't noticed, some of us are in favour of a government agent reveal. I personally feel that we need the extra info to make a more informed vote before it's too late. We are way too divided with less than 24 hours to the deadline. How is asking for a reveal "not hunting scum"? If anything, it is the most effective way to get the town reliable information to direct this possibly crucial vote, and the worst the scum can do in response is send them the spore with a 1/4 chance of turning. If they even have control of the spore right now.
snip

I still feel that the agent should reveal, for the reasons stated above.

[Party Elephant]

Updated TVR stats through day 6. Confirmed townies are activestick, girlysports, east coast flame, devo22, and timbo.

bizarro86 - 6/12 total, 4/6 final

squiggs96 - 2/16 total, 2/6 final

Puxlut - 4/12 total, 2/6 final

GGG - 4/20 total, 4/6 final

Peanut - 5/9 total, 4/6 final

Party Elephant - 4/11 total, 4/6 final

Lego Man/starseed - 4/12 total, 3/5 final (abstained from the last vote)

mrkajz44 - 4/9 total, 4/6 final

Hockeyguy15 - 2/8 total, 2/6 final

Oling_Roachinen - 8/15 total, 5/6 final

dissentowner - 3/14 total, 2/6 final

Timbo flipping town made some big changes to the TVRs as he had garnered a lot of votes in earlier rounds before being lynched.

The most obvious change is Oling's sky high 5/6. Five out of 6 lynch votes oling has voted for a townie (his other final vote was for squiggs, who has one of the lowest TVRs)

Bizarro, Peanut, myself, GGG and mrkajz all have 4/6.

starseed is at 3/5 after abstaining in the last round.

Diss, hg, Pux and squiggs are at 2/6.

I'm going to wager that two of the hosts are in the high TVR group and probably one lurker scum in the low TVR group, but to me the obvious choice statistically speaking is Oling.

Of course the implications of him being host are mind-blowing. Could it be that my tinfoil hat theory about the spore play on day 2 was actually correct?

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I think we have to consider the possibility that oling is lying about the spore entirely. If so, he never had it in the first place and in turn hasn't passed it to girly. (Of course there is still the remote possibility that whoever did have it in this scenario passed it to her as well). This leaves us wasting a lynch on town AND wasting a GA investigation if we go along with his plan. Considering what timbo pointed out about oling laying out this spore plan very early in the game, I'm pretty suspicious of oling right now.

For this scenario to work it would mean whoever actually had the spore turned, and is thus not speaking up, and whoever has it now is not yet aware.

What do you guys think? Too tinfoil-hat?

If it was then no wonder we've done such a bad job at finding hosts.

vote: Oling_Roachinen

Also would like to know why starseed held off voting in the last round.

[mrkajz44]

I think Squiggs is right. If someone got the spore, didn't turn and passed it along, then we should have heard about it by now. Even a short message about it should be easy enough at this point. Based on that, I'm going to continue the day on the assumption that someone turned at the start of yesterday (game days).

I do like Party's analysis, but I just don't have time right now to run through all the data. The only thing that jumped out to me right away was squiggs and GGG, both with a ton of total votes, but only a few of them are confirmed town at this point. I know Squiggs number is bit inflated due to the Pux thing, but its still interesting. Is that trying them trying to throw a lot of votes everywhere so they can distance themselves from a bunch of people? The ending votes are right in line with everyone else, so I wondering if they are throwing out votes to confuse, but then planning the final vote?

Again, I didn't have a ton of time to do much analysis on this, but that was one thing that seemed to stick out to me when I read the thread just now.

[GGG]

Who hasn't checked in yet?

Still waiting for peanut, oling, Starseed,

I would also recommend we take all votes of the board as if we are at lynch or lose scum could get together and time a winning vote. Once all people have checked in we should run though the scenarios and determine if we are at lynch or lose.

With no spore reveal we are likely sitting at 3 scum, minimum 1 turned. With possible 1 more.

[GGG]

If we are at 5 it's lunch or lose

Question for Mazrim:
If at the end of the day we are at 5 scum 5 unturned does the game end with scum victory or are night actions allowed to happen and then the 50% win condition is evaluated.

[Party Elephant]

Good point GGG. Don't want to hand them the game if I'm wrong.

unvote

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

I would also recommend we take all votes of the board as if we are at lynch or lose scum could get together and time a winning vote. Once all people have checked in we should run though the scenarios and determine if we are at lynch or lose.

There is almost nothing that will get me to remove my vote. I wish we had hammered already without giving him a shot to manipulate us, as it's been 48 hours. The amount of carnage he's left in his wake is huge. A benefit of not hammering is finding out if anyone passed the spore. A benefit of hammering him is not letting the rest of the host team figure out a defence.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I do like Party's analysis, but I just don't have time right now to run through all the data. The only thing that jumped out to me right away was squiggs and GGG, both with a ton of total votes, but only a few of them are confirmed town at this point. I know Squiggs number is bit inflated due to the Pux thing, but its still interesting. Is that trying them trying to throw a lot of votes everywhere so they can distance themselves from a bunch of people? The ending votes are right in line with everyone else, so I wondering if they are throwing out votes to confuse, but then planning the final vote?

I'm not sure how me not voting for the recent townies that were lynched is a bad thing. I've been quite vocal on who I think is a host. Your post feels very much like it was written by a host.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

There is almost nothing that will get me to remove my vote. I wish we had hammered already without giving him a shot to manipulate us, as it's been 48 hours. The amount of carnage he's left in his wake is huge. A benefit of not hammering is finding out if anyone passed the spore. A benefit of hammering him is not letting the rest of the host team figure out a defence.

Not unvoting is a scum confession

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by GGG

Not unvoting is a scum confession

Telling people to unvote is a scum confession.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Telling people to unvote is a scum confession.

You are betting the game on oling being scum before you have all the info available to us.

Quit being a stupid townie trying to get yourself lynched again.