CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I don't think we're at lynch or lose yet,

Why not?

Night 0 - Me
Night 1 - Girlysports
Night 2 - No one
Night 3 - Maybe SebC
Night 4 - Someone (unrevealed, probably turned)
Night 5 - Someone else (50/50 chance of turned)

We almost certainly have 1 turned because no one revealed. SebC could have passed it to the Host. I don't think SebC would have. I think he would have sent it someone he considered town. I'm fairly confident that "Someone" was not host and turned.

If it's the other scenario:
Night 0 - Me
Night 1 - Girlysports
Night 2 - No one
Night 3 - Someone
Night 4 - SebC (unrevealed, probably turned)
Night 5 - Someone else (50/50 chance of turned)

That's even worse because we know Someone was turned. And again SebC I believe would be passing it to a pretty likely townie. Maybe they didn't turn, maybe tonight they will find out they had the spore. Hopefully.

But the possibility exists there are 5 scum. If that's the case, if we lynch a townie, we have a 50/50 chance of losing (Host can tell who to send the spore to).

We may not be in a lynch or lose scenario. But the only people who know for sure are the scum.

[GGG]

If we were at lynch or lose the agent would reveal themselves. Since the agent isn't revealing themselves I suspect they have information that we aren't at lynch or lose.

It's what pushes me back to squigs post about the options for Seb where he highlights the options including the captain killing to get the spore back. Who would be thinking about that that early. Scum trying to list every option.

[GGG]

A question for everyone.

If Squiggs flipped town would that increase your suspicion of oling?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Vote: Timbo

We got to hit scum.

I don't like that Timbo downplayed the pros (and I realize there are cons as well) of a Government Agent reveal to just being the source of SebC.

I don't like that he said if Squiggs96 flips town, he would go after me (I'm sure a lot of people would) but saying it to set up the next lynch when the scum are almost certainly within 2 lynches of a win (possibly 1).

I don't like his vote for mrkajz44. I think mrkajz44 is town, but an easy enough person to target because he's been saved or whatever without drawing a target.

I don't like that he pushed suspicion on Party Elephant and/or Peanut for being newbies but playing differently.

I don't like him accusing Hockeyguy15 of a weak rice paper allegation against Squiggs96.

I don't like him putting Starseed not in my group for the GA reveal when Starseed was leaning towards reveal. Seemed like a way to isolate me and make it look worse then it was.

I don't like him considering the reveal a transgression when we're possibly at a lynch or lose situation.

I don't like that he hasn't really discussed the lynch or lose situation at all.

I don't like that I think the host are comfortable just hoping this day plays out how it is.

[Oling_Roachinen]

[QUOTE=GGG;5339413]If we were at lynch or lose the agent would reveal themselves. Since the agent isn't revealing themselves I suspect they have information that we aren't at lynch or lose./QUOTE]
Explain please. How would the Government Agent know?

[Oling_Roachinen]

So if I'm reading you right GGG, the Government Agent should reveal if they did kill SebC?

If they don't reveal, then the host killed SebC to get spore back so there can't be 2 turned?

So that would also mean, with no reveal, that the host were fine making Squiggs96 look bad?

So if the Government Agent doesn't reveal should we move Squiggs96 up to confirmed town (not necessarily turned or unturned)?

[GGG]

If the government agent didn't kill SebC then the spore was recalled. If Seb is converted night 4 he passes the spore so recall isn't necessary. If Seb is converted night 3 spore is passed to person and not converted we'd know today regardless of if it's recalled. The only scenario that makes sense is Seb night 3, devo night 4, recall the spore.

So if the spore was recalled and the agent knows this then they know it's not lynch or lose.

[Party Elephant]

I'm going to do a long post but before I get to work on it I'd like to say that I'm in favour of a government agent reveal. Oling's right. We are potentially down to the wire and I still feel like we are pissing in the wind. We need some info and we need it now. The best the hosts can do once they know the identity of the GA is a 1/4 chance of turning them, and that's if they are currently in control of the spore which we don't know. I think we should take that chance, as our odds of losing the game with a town lynch are greater than that.

While I'm doing my homework I just have a question for those that are currently voting for me:

Do you actually believe that I'm being coached?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

So if the spore was recalled and the agent knows this then they know it's not lynch or lose.

Yep. Which also means that the host were fine showing SebC as turned and make Squiggs96 look bad (and in turn me when he gets shown as town).

So if the Government Agent checked SebC they should speak up? I'm off to bed but I think the town needs to discuss this.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

So if I'm reading you right GGG, the Government Agent should reveal if they did kill SebC?

If they don't reveal, then the host killed SebC to get spore back so there can't be 2 turned?

So that would also mean, with no reveal, that the host were fine making Squiggs96 look bad?

So if the Government Agent doesn't reveal should we move Squiggs96 up to confirmed town (not necessarily turned or unturned)?

I agree with the host being fine with making Squiggs look bad but I think the value of not losing the spore for a day is worth more then risking Squiggs. So I think the case against Squiggs is unchanged by the agents actions.

But yes if the agent doesn't reveal i would assume that it's

Seb 3, devo 4 recall spore someone 5

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

East Coast Flame (7): GGG, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, Peanut

Starseed (6): Peanut, mrkajz44, Party Elephant, squiggs96, dissentowner

devo22 (6): Oling_Roachinen, starseed, GGG, Party Elephant, mrkajz44

I'm sorting this by who voted for the lynchee on the three saves of mrkajz.

Party Elephant is the only person who voted for the winner all three times that mrkajz was runner up.

GGG, oling, Peanut, and mrkajz himself voted to save him twice.

Squiggs, starseed, dissentowner and myself voted to save him once.

Hockeyguy and Timbo both voted for mrkajz 3 times in a row.

[bizaro86]

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 4 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (1): Hockeyguy15

squiggs96 (3): Party Elephant, mrkajz44, starseed
Party Elephant (4): Puxlut, bizaro86, dissentowner, peanut
mrkajz44 (1): Timbo
Oling_Roachinen (1): squiggs96
Peanut (1): GGG
Timbo (1): Oling_Roachinen

I needed this for my next post, so thought I might as well put it up in the thread.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Why not?

<snip - list of scenarios>

We may not be in a lynch or lose scenario. But the only people who know for sure are the scum.

I agree that its possible we have 5 scum, however, I think if that was the case that we'd have seen a stronger push for a hammer when either squiggs or party had the vote run up on them. It seems probable that one of them is town. (I think both are suspicious, but the odds that we went two for two on running the vote up on scum isn't good, imo).

Both of them had 4 votes, and we're at 7 for a hammer, so scum/turned being 5 people could have pretty easily added 3 more and gotten the lynch to go into night with a 50/50 chance of winning the game before the start of the next day.

Normally I'm a math guy, but this is more of a psychology game, and I doubt the hosts would have been able to resist the opportunity to go for the win. If they didn't get a turn they'd still have a good chance to win on lynch tomorrow.

So I think it's most likely that we have 3 scum and 1 turned. In your two scenarios, that probably means whoever got the spore today didn't turn. If that's the case, should whoever gets it send it to pux to get a no-spore day or send it to our second choice, so we can lynch them tomorrow and potentially net a host and stop the spore for a day? If we send it to pux she has to send it on...

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I'm going to do a long post but before I get to work on it I'd like to say that I'm in favour of a government agent reveal. Oling's right. We are potentially down to the wire and I still feel like we are pissing in the wind. We need some info and we need it now. The best the hosts can do once they know the identity of the GA is a 1/4 chance of turning them, and that's if they are currently in control of the spore which we don't know. I think we should take that chance, as our odds of losing the game with a town lynch are greater than that.

While I'm doing my homework I just have a question for those that are currently voting for me:

Do you actually believe that I'm being coached?

I was hoping to stay up for Party's long post but he mentioned it 45 minutes ago and I need to sleep so I can be coherent at work.

To answer your question, it does seem likely to me that you have been coached in the scum thread, the strategy and inside-the-game nomenclature all seem like something a newbie wouldn't have picked up on to me. Maybe you're smarter than I'm giving you credit for, in which case I will apologize in the post-game thread.

[Party Elephant]

Here are updated town vote rates (which I will refer to as TVR from here on out) for all remaining players going up until the devo lynch. Confirmed townies used in this set are activestick, girlysports, East Coast Flame, and devo22. Total is their total number of votes cast whereas final is just what their votes were on at the end of each round.

Timbo: 2/9 total, 2/5 final

bizarro86: 4/10 total, 3/5 final

squiggs96: 2/13 total, 2/5 final (thanks for skewing the stats the other day, mudcrutch would be proud!)

Puxlut: 4/10 total, 1/5 final

GGG: 5/16 total, 3/5 final

Peanut: 3/7 total, 3/5 final

Party Elephant: 3/9 total, 3/5 final

Lego Man/starseed: 3/10 total, 3/5 final

mrkajz44: 2/7 total, 2/5 final

Hockeyguy15: 1/7 total, 1/5 final

Oling_Roachinen: 4/12 total, 3/5 final

dissentowner: 1/11 total, 1/5 final

Notes:
- Pux, diss, and Hg have only had a final vote for a townie once each.

- Timbo, mrkajz and squiggs have a final TVR of 2/5. The rest of us are all at 3/5.

-Peanut's 3/7 is the highest total TVR of any of us, followed closely by bizarro and Puxlut with 4/10 each.

-Diss and Hg have only voted for known townies once each. Diss' 1/11 is the lowest total TVR.

This post is just facts. Opinions to follow.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I was hoping to stay up for Party's long post but he mentioned it 45 minutes ago and I need to sleep so I can be coherent at work.

Sorry, don't wait up for me I still have a lot of work to do!

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Peanut

Agree that Pux's voting record hasn't been stellar (sorry Pux), even though she is confirmed town. There's just too many variables for one townie to be able to lead the charge at this point. I also think the GA revealing means they would be a spore target, and then if they send it to Pux next, we would essentially lose her as "confirmed" town the day after because her immunity would be gone. And could the scum not cast suspicion on the GA reveal by lying or revealing themselves as a GA to confuse us and potentially increase the chance of a GA lynch? I just think the GA is safer in hiding at the moment.

I'm coming to the conclusion that Oling and Squiggs are two townies fighting. Please stop fighting. (Although I am still more suspicious of Oling than Squiggs. Don't understand strong push to get GA to reveal. He's also made some mistakes along the way even though he calls people out on theirs. He does seem to be steering the game to an extent but his play could be strong, opinionated town). I think the right vote is Party at this point, even though he is my favourite user name. Sigh.

Vote: Party Elephant

Of all the votes against me, this one breaks my heart the most. Peanut, how could you?

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I am not, but that wagon is not moving right now and PE seems like a better bet to lynch a host.

I'd be up for a mrkajz lynch. I'm not sure how on board you are with your current top scum suspect telling you how to vote though.

[Party Elephant]

List time!

Timbo: Has done very, very little to make waves. I'm suspicious. I also had the same feeling about devo and that didn't turn out very well. Not my first choice for a lynch, but I'm leaning host.

bizarro86: Town. Not clued in enough to be a host. Dropped the ball on day 4. Unvoted on devo which could have led to another tie. I think he believes I'm being coached because I have a better grasp on this game than he does. He pointed out how I must be a host because I said wifom, when the term had been introduced way back on day 1 in reference to me of all people:

Originally Posted by SebC

If we assume that scum would not do scummy things, then everything becomes WIFOM. Noise.

His schtick against me is tiresome and I don't think he's putting much thought into actually hunting hosts. Unfortunately I'm attributing his actions to bad town rather than host so I'm worried about him voting the wrong way here.

squiggs96: Host. There has been more than enough evidence posted against him. I especially don't like his defence of "Oling is doing what he did last game". If you don't want people to vote for you, how about some actual hard evidence?

Puxlut: Town, obviously, but other than the confirmed status has not done much of anything to help. Like bizarro, worried about another bad town vote here spelling the end for us.

GGG: My biggest fan. If he's a host then I can see his gameplan was "Day 1 - pick a new player, harass them until lynched" and he's frustrated that it's taking so long to carry it out. But other than tunnelling away at me, which is understandable if he is town, don't see a lot of scummy behaviour. But I can't shake the feeling that he is scum, picking on an easy target that has not been hard to get momentum on.

Peanut: Not sure on her, maybe turned. Would be easy to maintain her posting style if she were turned.

Party Elephant: Hey, that's me!

Starseed: Town. I felt very strongly that he was a host but I'm not so sold on it anymore. The whole almost getting to hammer, then being saved from hammer, then the thread going quiet with him as the vote leader led me to believe he is town. I also didn't have much suspicion of him when he was Lego Man.

mrkajz44: Host. I'm not happy with my actions on the last vote. I absolutely didn't want to have another tie, but I probably could have stayed silent and someone else would have broken the tie. I think we could get a lot of information from lynching him. Of course, I'm linked to him from moving my vote while he was on the block twice now and votes speak louder than words, but I'll happily vote for him if there's interest.

Hockeyguy15: Town, possibly turned. Has not been his usual aggressive, high posting, agenda driving self lately. I know he posted a real life explanation but I still think something's up.

Oling_Roachinen: Town. I've just thoroughly re-read todays actions and I feel he is working very hard to save the town. I'm not buying the defences from squiggs that he's twisting words or anything, just doing his due diligence. I can't see a host using the logic he's used today.

dissentowner: Town I guess, but I don't see much from him that makes me lean one way or the other. Has a very low TVR so I guess that's good?


So, in summary, I feel most strongly that squiggs and mrkajz are hosts. I'm keeping my vote on squiggs as I have the strongest suspicions of him, but I'd be willing to change to mrkajz if there's momentum there.

For those of you voting for me (the ones that aren't host/turned anyway), PLEASE reconsider. Go back and read more of my posts if you have to. The progression you are seeing is not the result of scum teammates coaching me. I wish there were a way to prove that other than a cardflip.

If I do get lynched and the game continues, take a long hard look at who's been pushing the Party Elephant bandwagon.

[Hockeyguy15]

I have 2 votes on town, activeStick and Girly.