CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by starseed

Oling, I do not recall revealing my identity.

Oh sorry, neither did I. But based on posts and situations (you being 1 vote away from hammer, me not wanting to be investigated) I thought they wouldn't think we are.

Originally Posted by starseed

I think it depends on whether or not they have information that is useful.

I agree, I just think knowing who they are might be useful enough. Learning that SebC was killed by the investigated might be useful. Having another confirmed townie at this point might be required.

There's the potential of 5 scum. Right now I know I am town, I know Puxlut is. If we aren't voting together it could be the death-knell(although I would be willing to change my vote if absolute necessary to get a lynched). Another confirmed townie at least gives us one more.

Again it could be 7-5, I think, I don't know if the risk outways the gain. I don't even know if there is any risk. I would like to discuss the pros and cons a bit here.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by starseed

I am certainly not saying PE is a bad choice, but why him over Squiggs?

Squiggs certainly has a bunch of suspicious actions, especially recently, so while I think a squiggs lynch is not a bad play, I prefer a party elephant lynch.

Main reason is the mrkajz thing. It came up suddenly a few days ago, and has been a pretty constant thing where he votes/unvotes mrkajz and is generally protecting him while saying how suspicious he is. He's even gotten sarcastic about it, which is always a good sign that there's no actual defence, imo.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Let me help with that. oh I can feel the comments about my link to mrkajz already....

unvote
Vote: devo22

This post is where he unvoted mrkajz as soon as he became the vote leader and switched to devo, who was subsequently lynched and flipped town.

My current working theory is that party is scum and mrkajz was the first person to get the spore after the scum got the spore back. Party has been trying to protect him as the spore holder and then as a turned ever since. My suggestion would be to vote out party elephant today and for the GA to check mrkajz for being turned. I especially think a mrkajz investigation would be good if I'm not able to get votes to swing to party, as if the GA hits on mrkajz at night that gives us an autolynch for a host the next day, imo.

The other big reason is the change in party's playstyle from the beginning of the game until now, from rank newbie to expert. Post's like this one:

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I believe the term for that is WIFOM.

aren't the type of thing you would normally see from someone playing their first game, which leads me to suspect there has been a WIFOM discussion in the host thread when they were going through arguments, and then party used the term in the main thread without considering its potential to out him.

Anyway, I'd be willing to switch if that ends up being necessary but for now I'm most confident with party elephant so I'll leave my vote there.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by starseed

Also, not to defend GGG, but my list looks very similar to his right now. I just cannot see why squiggs isnt the obvious target here.

Same, I would put you neutral as you were close to lynch and I wasn't involved in the

Town:
Puxlut
GGG (possibly turned protecting Party Elephant)
Dissentowner
Mrkajz44

Neutral:
Hockeyguy15 (possible connection to Hockeyguy15)
Starseed (possible connection to Hockeyguy15)
Timbo

Scum:
Party Elephant - maybe a bit less so then the others but with GGG not voting for him it's higher then yesterday
Peanut
Bizaro86
Squiggs96

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I think I would prefer voting for PE over Mrkajz44.

But Devo22, Peanut, Squiggs96 and Bizaro86 are probably higher on my list then either.

I think a shift to Devo22 could make for an interesting day.

I think I might have been close with my list, which is why Peanut got mad, but unfortunately I picked the townie.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Same, I would put you neutral as you were close to lynch and I wasn't involved in the

shift off of you.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Also I'm probably right about Hockeyguy15 having a connection to Hockeyguy15...ha.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Neutral:
Hockeyguy15 (possible connection to Hockeyguy15)
Starseed (possible connection to Hockeyguy15)
Timbo
.

So HG is connected to HG?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

So HG is connected to HG?

It's a stretch but I think we should explore the possibility.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Also I'm probably right about Hockeyguy15 having a connection to Hockeyguy15...ha.

This is not a mistake. This is an obvious scum slip up. How does no one see this?

Maybe a mistake with a name can happen. Agree?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

This is not a mistake. This is an obvious scum slip up. How does no one see this?

Maybe a mistake with a name can happen. Agree?

It's not a mistake though, it was a slip, I know Hockeyguy15 is connected to Hockeyguy15 just like you knew Mrkajz44 was town.

(Also that's barely a footnote on the most suspicious stuff I've been posting about you.)

[Oling_Roachinen]

Squiggs96, for someone who thinks I'm the host, what do you think of my plan on the Government Agent revealing?

Is it just my master plan to have the Government Agent reveal so we can send him the spore with 1/4 chance of turning? Even though the Host probably would prefer the higher chance of turning someone anyways and certainly don't want another confirmed townie around?

[Party Elephant]

Well, I've explained why my style has changed this game. The term wifom was used early in the game so I took it upon myself to look it up.

Bizarro, I thought it was pretty clear that I was changing my vote to devo to prevent a tie, but I can see why the significance of that might go over your head.

I'll post my list tonight. Having another busy work day.

[Oling_Roachinen]

I would like to discuss the Government Agent reveal, pros and cons etc.

Pros:

• Confirmed Townie. Can trust list and thoughts.
• Extra information, who was checked, when they were checked
• Confirmed Townie. Wont accidentally lynch, or get close to the lynch with a late reveal that we may not trust.
• In a pinch, if we get to this point, we could send spore to Puxlut, who could send it to the Government Agent if she isn't confident on who is host. That is 1/4 chance of turning instead of 1/2 chance of turning a town. Probably better to send to the Government Agent and Puxlut's top suspect but a possibility completely in the town's control.
• I know that the Host wouldn't have had time to communicate to Turned about a reveal today. Tonight they could mention what to do in case of reveal.
• We could be closer to losing this game then we think. If there's 5 scums and we kill townie, we could lose before tomorrow. Reason enough I think the Government Agent should reveal.
• Multiple reveals would give us a lot of information. If we guess right, we are in a good position.

Cons:

• If the scum gamble and send it to the Government Agent, we ####ed.
• Multiple reveals would murky the waters. If we guess wrong, we ####ed.

My thinking is that the Government Agent is probably on a pretty short list for the Host. If they wanted to try and turn the Government Agent they probably already have that possibility.

[GGG]

I think the agent should wait to disclose.

The night 1 investigation garnered nothing and is irrelevant now
The night 2 investigation was oling and got nothing
The night 3 investigation was useless
Night 4 is interesting with Seb and Oling as potential targets. There would be some value here if we determine that Seb was not investigated
Night 5 would also be useful if they again didn't investigate Seb and it was the hosts that killed them as that would mean it was likely that devo had the spore.

So I don't think it's worth the agent outing himself to tell us he investigated Bizaro and Diss night 4 and 5 and that the Host killed Seb. That's the most info we could garner from the disclosure. The agent, the longer they are hidden the more valuable they become at night.

[dissentowner]

Something is not right here. There are all these theories that squiggs is connected with PE yet if I have the vote count right then PE is currently voting to lynch squiggs. I would be willing to move my vote to PE but I am not convinced yet on squiggs.

[Hockeyguy15]

One more work day of inactivity for me, work is really cramping my style.

At first glance I'm not totally against a reveal, but let me think about it a bit more before I commit one way or another.

[GGG]

Oling, how can we have the same scum list if I'm turned and your town.

Your pure mirror and trying to out the agent is a little suspicious.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Oling, how can we have the same scum list if I'm turned and your town.

Your pure mirror and trying to out the agent is a little suspicious.

Pure mirror?

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I think I would prefer voting for PE over Mrkajz44.

But Devo22, Peanut, Squiggs96 and Bizaro86 are probably higher on my list then either.

I think a shift to Devo22 could make for an interesting day.

My post yesterday GGG. The same scum list that I had before you posted yours, I said a long time ago I thought Dissentowner was town (his mistake was a mistake that I believe was an accident), I liked your thinking on GirlySports (the reason I unvoted) and while I'm back and fourth on mrkajz44, like I told dissentowner, I don't think his save was scum driven.... It's weird that you're trying to discredit me instead of actually discussing your pros and cons of the Government Agent reveal.

I also posted that I wanted the Genetic Anomaly revealed before Puxlut did and I don't think that was too any harm to the town.

Do you have actual cons as to why the Government Agent shouldn't reveal?

[Oling_Roachinen]

And I don't mean that last question to be snarky.

I realize we're thinking the game very similar, even if I don't entirely trust you (and you don't trust me), so if you have some cons then make mention of them please.

[Hockeyguy15]

Town:
Puxlut
Oling
GGG

Leaning town:
Starseed
Timbo (possibly targeted with spore)

Unsure:
Bizaro (possibly targeted with spore)
Peanut
Squiggs

Possible hosts:
Mrkajz
Diss
PE

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Town:
Puxlut
Oling
GGG

Leaning town:
Starseed
Timbo (possibly targeted with spore)

Unsure:
Bizaro (possibly targeted with spore)
Peanut
Squiggs

Possible hosts:
Mrkajz
Diss
PE

Really? I have been on board with the Mrkajz lynch and you think we are both hosts? Umm, ok.