CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[dissentowner]

vote bizaro86

Too many warning flags with this guy. He was instrumental in all three passenger lynches and now I think he saved starseed's butt on a lynch. I am good with either bizaro or a starseed lynch today.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

vote bizaro86

Too many warning flags with this guy. He was instrumental in all three passenger lynches and now I think he saved starseed's butt on a lynch. I am good with either bizaro or a starseed lynch today.

If you weren't voting for a townie (me) I'd think it was funny that you think I'm suspicious for not breaking a tie to save starseed, and party elephant/oling think I'm suspicious for not breaking a tie to save mrkajz.

If I was host, I wouldn't have come one at all last night, I would have just been absent and not had to defend myself the next morning.

If I didn't intend to vote, why would I have come and posted at all, just to attract bonus negative attention to myself? I may not be Seb smart, but that would be dumb as a post.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

vote bizaro86

Too many warning flags with this guy. He was instrumental in all three passenger lynches and now I think he saved starseed's butt on a lynch. I am good with either bizaro or a starseed lynch today.

I've had my suspicions of bizaro86, but how exactly did he save Starseed?

He had been 'preaching' a Party Elephant/mrkajz44 connection yesterday. He had even posted the exact scenario that he was afraid of. So I feel like he could have easily voted for mrkajz44 without much concern if his goal was to save Starseed.

I would be more concerned, if bizaro86 is host, that he saved mrkajz44. An open vote for Starseed would have been awfully suspicious given his suspicion of mrkajz44/Party Elephant earlier. But an after-the-whistle vote for mrkajz44 provided a reasonable way of saying he tried to kill him without actually killing him.

[dissentowner]

You are right, however he still stinks of scum to me.

[GirlySports]

Vote Count

Hasn't Voted (8): Timbo, bizaro86, squiggs96, Puxlut, starseed, SebC, mrkajz44, Hockeyguy15

starseed (2): Party Elephant, Peanut
bizaro86 (2): devo22, dissentowner
squiggs96 (1): Oling_Roachinen
Party Elephant (1): GGG

The deadline is Friday, June 19th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Hammer cannot be dropped before Monday, June 15th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[Hockeyguy15]

I feel that this got lost in the shuffle, so I am reposting it.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

This first vote is interesting.

activeStick and Girly were town, so at no point were any scum in danger of being lynched. Then in you look at the "throw away" votes you have Girly and Puxlut who are both town, leaving Peanut and Diss as the only 2 people not jumping on the leaders.

I'm a little surprised that the hosts didn't take this opportunity to put a couple votes on each other so down the road they could use it to build some town credibility. Peanut voting for ECF doesn't fit that this since ECF was town, and knowing my alignment Diss didn't vote for a host either.

So on the first vote all 3 hosts voted for town, and at best only either Girly or Puxlut having a shot at voting for scum.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Now on this vote Girly and ECF are confirmed town, and I know my alignment so that only leaves Timbo as possible scum. So unless Timbo is a host AND 1 or 2 of GGG, Oling and mrkajz are hosts, some/if not all the scum voted for town again even though no host was in danger of being lynched.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Finally on vote 3 assuming the same logic before, the only unknown is mrkajz. If mrkajz is a host then that only leaves squiggs, Timbo, and Lego as possible hosts voting for their buddy.

I tend to think this vote would be least likely that scum would vote for scum because of the way it went down. I really do think that mrkajz is a host, so using that logic I would slightly lean towards squiggs, Timbo and Lego being town for now, but then that would mean that the hosts all voted for a townsperson again.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So we using my assumptions from above...

activeStick, Girly, ECF - Dead town
Puxlut and Seb - 'Confirmed town'
squiggs, Timbo, Lego - leaning towards town because of the mrkajz vote

That leaves the following...
GGG, Oling_Roachinen, bizaro86, Party Elephant, devo22, mrkajz44, dissentowner, Peanut

Out of those I think GGG, Oling, bizaro and Peanut are possibly town, so that leaves...

PE, Devo, mrkajz, and Diss as my possible scum list at the moment.

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Hasn't Voted (1): Oling_Roachinen

Voted:
Starseed (6): Peanut, mrkajz44, Party Elephant, squiggs96, Puxlut, dissentowner
mrkajz44 (7): Timbo, Hockeyguy15, devo22, Starseed, SebC, GGG, bizaro86

Back to back votes mrkajz has been in the lead and the vote has moved off him, day 3 the vote was moved to a townsperson and day 4 we end up with no lynch. Here is what I believe the actual vote shift on day 3 was again.

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...postcount=1324

[Timbo]

So I think we should make a choice between mrkajz44 and starseed.
Otherwise we will end up going off course IMO

[starseed]

I am leaning towards voting again for one of the top two. I will do some analysis tonight before getting caught up with the game of the thrones. Hadn't much time this weekend.

As a teaser, tonight I will be revealing which one of those top two vote getters are in my list of good lynch candidates!

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

[...]
You, Squiggs96, SebC, Starseed, Dissentowner, GGG and bizaro86 all voted/changed votes after my last post. Mrkajz44, Timbo, Peanut and Party Elephant were also around. Any single one of you guys could have prevented the tie as much as I could have.[...]

Well, to be fair, I don't think neither Starseed or I were planning on voting against ourselves, but the rest of this statement is somewhat true. People could have moved votes to prevent the tie prior to OT.

I think everyone was confused about the OT rules though. I think most people (including myself) were under the impression that you could move your vote in the OT period, just that you had to vote for the top two. I don't think getting to Hammer was the issue, it was the fact that the votes were locked. So people not moving votes right before the OT doesn't mean too much to me.

And props to Oling for perhaps the best gif I've seen in a while. That was perfect.

[mrkajz44]

As for my analysis on what happened on Friday, here is the vote count prior to everything happening. This count happened at 4:00 and my post came around 5:00 or so as I recall. I had just finished up work for the day, and figured it would be a good time to give some final thoughts on who I thought was scum and why - I thought I was going to be lynched for sure

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Vote Count

Hasn't Voted (1): SebC

mrkajz44 (5): squiggs96, Timbo, Hockeyguy15, dissentowner, devo22
Starseed (3): Peanut, mrkajz44, Party Elephant
Party Elephant (3): bizaro86 , Starseed, GGG
devo22 (1) : Puxlut
squiggs96 (1): Oling_Roachinen


The deadline is Friday, June 12th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

The voting then went as follows:

Pux comes off Devo and moves to Starseed (5-4 for mrkajz)
Squiggs comes off mrkajz and moves to Starseed (5-4 Starseed)
Seb votes for GGG (5-4 Starseed)
Starseed comes off Party and moves to mrkajz (5-5 tie)
Diss comes off mrkajz and moves to Starseed (6-4 Starseed)
Seb comes off GGG and moves to mrkajz (6-5 Starseed)
GGG comes off Party and moves to mrkajz (6-6 tie)
Bizaro's vote was wiped and votes for mrkajz (7-6 mrkajz)

I'm still trying to figure out exactly what happened there. It looks like Pux and Squiggs were swayed by my post. The move by Starseed to save himself was scummy in my opinion (and I said so). Diss agreed with my comment to put Starseed ahead. Seb and GGG came to Starseed's "rescue" by added two more votes to me to force a tie. Bizaro gets the vote in late and there is no hammer in OT.

I really think Starseed is scum, but the Seb and GGG move to save him throws me off becuase I didn't have either of them on my radar as scum. My list was HG, Starseed, Timbo and Diss. I think I may have to take Diss off that list as his vote broke the initial tie and put Starseed 2 votes ahead. Super ballsy move if they are working together, and I just don't see it. Timbo and HG were already on me, so they couldn't do anything to save Starseed.

This goes against my typical stance of voting late, but avoiding panic within hours of the deadline is better. I also feel this day will end far before deadline. Starseed's move of self preservation smells bad to me, mostly because he didn't really say that he thought I was scum, he just moved his vote to one of the "front-runners". Lego was already suspicious before the switch, too.

Vote: Starseed

[Timbo]

Dissentowner so what happened to starseed is scum why are you jumping off?
Olling what is your take on starseed and mrkajz?

[Hockeyguy15]

mrkajz what is your logic behind me, Timbo, and Lego all voting for Girly on day 2 when there was enough people already voting for her?

Also, why would the 3 of us push to lynch you on back to back days? After escaping me being lynched on day 3, why would we stay so visible on day 4? Wouldn't it make more sense to do something like PE or Diss did with me, and just say we could be wrong about you and leave it alone? Also interestingly enough it seems like you held up your pursuit of me as well even though you continue to mention in passing that you think I'm a host. If you are so sure I am a host why abandon going after me?

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

mrkajz what is your logic behind me, Timbo, and Lego all voting for Girly on day 2 when there was enough people already voting for her?

Also, why would the 3 of us push to lynch you on back to back days? After escaping me being lynched on day 3, why would we stay so visible on day 4? Wouldn't it make more sense to do something like PE or Diss did with me, and just say we could be wrong about you and leave it alone? Also interestingly enough it seems like you held up your pursuit of me as well even though you continue to mention in passing that you think I'm a host. If you are so sure I am a host why abandon going after me?

Day 2 logic - HG, you lead the charge on Girly, saying you were convinced she was turned after the spore reveal. I think you saw an opportunity and jumped on it, seeing you knew the spore outcome already. When I re-read that part of the thread, I thought it was interesting that you were sure she was turned right away, yet you waited and voted as her 6th vote (at that time). You were making a strong argument against her, yet you waited to bury your vote later?

Anyway, to answer your question directly, it has been speculated about how the scum are voting, and there are different theories. I think as the day developed, you guys agreed that all voting for Girly was safe as it was only day 2, so lynching a townie is still "acceptable" and it throws people off the trail, thinking all three hosts wouldn't vote for Girly if not required.

Day 3 and 4 - This just makes sense for you guys to continue to go after me. The three of you voiced your support against me on Day 3 by voting against me, yet a townie still died in the end with the ECF lynch. Perfect scenario for the scum really. Just continue the push against me, and then you don't have to worry about flip-flopping on your voting between days and you get another town out. Leaving me alone on Day 4 after voting against me on Day 3 would likely just raise more consistency questions from others.

As for voting for you directly, I know support just isn't there right now. I am pretty convinced of Starseed as well and there is some town support for that. Therefore, I don't want to throw my vote away when the goal is to hunt for all three scum, not just one.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Olling what is your take on starseed and mrkajz?

From when I left, from when mrkajz44 posted the vote changes. Puxlut is obviously town, so I feel like the push to kill Starseed/save mrkajz44 was started by a townie. I also don't think Squiggs96 is working with mrkajz44.

But at the same time, I don't think SebC or GGG are hosts. And they tried to save Starseed/kill mrkajz44. I don't really think Dissentowner is host either. I'm having doubts that the action yesterday was scum driven at all. Perhaps we shot ourselves in the foot, but there's a possibility that this was advantageous to us if neither was Host and the real Host were too afraid to be the ones to break the tie.

However, I know I am not turned and at this point I believe we have a turned as no one has claimed to have sent the spore yet. Following some of the logic of who the spore targets would have been, including you I think mentioning it Timbo, SebC may have received the spore and been turned. And maybe he thought saving Starseed was ideal for the scum side. So if I had to choose between the two, I would probably chose to lynch Starseed.

But I think looking elsewhere would be my preference.

Squiggs96 threw a lot of stuff around yesterday. He talked about how he tried to save ECF by killing Mrkajz44. He appeared to be, let's say, somewhat confident that Mrkajz44 was scum throughout the day but switched with a rather plain reveal. He tested the waters for voting out one of Diss or HG because they were "feuding." He was suggesting that the Government Agent investigate me, but the reasons, at least on the surface, that he wanted me to be checked would be the same reason for SebC to be another option but he didn't mention SebC until pressed. He tried to draw a connection to me and Hockeyguy15 because we both took his reply the same. And then he started coming up with ways I would live even with an investigation (i.e. I was host) which seemed to be preemptive because I knew I was going to live.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Now I would like to say pretty much the only reason I think SebC is possibly turned is because of Squiggs96 pushing so hard for me to be investigated while not mentioning SebC for the same reasons. Squiggs96 had said that he thought I had town cred and that the host would therefore send me the spore (and also because they already had) but SebC, I would argue, had more town cred - and even Squiggs96 post on Day 3 seemed to suggest he thought so as well. So it just struck me as weird that Squiggs96 would say I was the "only option." Instead of discussing this properly, I would say we got hung up on semantics and fluff arguments that I'm thinking may have been deflection. I still don't know if Squiggs96 presented a reason he didn't think SebC was regarded as being town by the rest of the town.

I would have liked to avoid the conversation until it seemed that there was a turned player, because maybe Squiggs96 was right and I was given the spore or Puxlut had it or something. But at the same time I knew an investigation on me was a waste. Of course a turned or passenger would say that.

Also Squiggs96 mistakenly called mrkajz44 as town instead of East Coast Flame. I mean that's probably nothing, but could have been a slip.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Day 2 logic - HG, you lead the charge on Girly, saying you were convinced she was turned after the spore reveal. I think you saw an opportunity and jumped on it, seeing you knew the spore outcome already. When I re-read that part of the thread, I thought it was interesting that you were sure she was turned right away, yet you waited and voted as her 6th vote (at that time). You were making a strong argument against her, yet you waited to bury your vote later?

Anyway, to answer your question directly, it has been speculated about how the scum are voting, and there are different theories. I think as the day developed, you guys agreed that all voting for Girly was safe as it was only day 2, so lynching a townie is still "acceptable" and it throws people off the trail, thinking all three hosts wouldn't vote for Girly if not required.

Day 3 and 4 - This just makes sense for you guys to continue to go after me. The three of you voiced your support against me on Day 3 by voting against me, yet a townie still died in the end with the ECF lynch. Perfect scenario for the scum really. Just continue the push against me, and then you don't have to worry about flip-flopping on your voting between days and you get another town out. Leaving me alone on Day 4 after voting against me on Day 3 would likely just raise more consistency questions from others.

As for voting for you directly, I know support just isn't there right now. I am pretty convinced of Starseed as well and there is some town support for that. Therefore, I don't want to throw my vote away when the goal is to hunt for all three scum, not just one.

It's interesting that you bring up I have a later vote on Girly, I assume to cast some suspicion on me and the last 2 days you have also felt the need to mention how you like to vote late.

So after all our careful planning to throw people off our scent, we have Lego come out and say "I think Girly is town, but here is my vote anyway"?

So you're saying flip flopping should concern the town? Does that mean we should be concerned with the way you, Diss, and PE have suddenly decided to not vote for me?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Dissentowner so what happened to starseed is scum why are you jumping off?
Olling what is your take on starseed and mrkajz?

I am not, that is why I said I would be on board to lynch either bizaro or starseed. The reason I voted for bizaro is because he just seems more likely to be scum although I think both are. Seriously, go back and look at his past posts. Couple that with the fact he has been in on every passenger lynch and I see som red flags there. If the vote leans toward starseed I have no problem switching to him.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

snip

Anyway, to answer your question directly, it has been speculated about how the scum are voting, and there are different theories. I think as the day developed, you guys agreed that all voting for Girly was safe as it was only day 2, so lynching a townie is still "acceptable" and it throws people off the trail, thinking all three hosts wouldn't vote for Girly if not required.

snip

So you think on day 2 it's possible that we all voted for Girly, even though the numbers didn't require it. How come for the day 1 vote you didn't think the hosts would pile on activeStick if the numbers didn't require them to? I suppose you did leave that disclaimer at the end though.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

snip

I did this summary in order of votes as well, so Squiggs is first and GGG was last. I think its important to look at this first vote as I'm guessing there is at least one scum on here (maybe two, but the numbers were not really required, so I'm leaving it at one for now).

Two of the middle votes have me most interested. Timbo votes with little to no reason, other than agreeing quickly with the HG vote, so that's a bit weak. Devo's vote is based of past playing experience, which I suppose isn't a terrible reason on day 1, but is not basing it off anything in the current game. I guess I feel both of those reasons were not strong, and they came in as vote 4 and 5 to make Active the front runner. I think one of the two are scum based on that, but can't pick between the two at this point.

snip

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So you think on day 2 it's possible that we all voted for Girly, even though the numbers didn't require it. How come for the day 1 vote you didn't think the hosts would pile on activeStick if the numbers didn't require them to? I suppose you did leave that disclaimer at the end though.

I'd say mostly because when I made my post about the Day 1 vote, it was early in Day 2. There was not much to go on at that point, so with the limited information I was trying to make educated guesses. At that time I thought only one, maybe two, hosts would vote against a townie.

My answer to you about all three scum voting together (as I've suggested for the Day 2 vote) has now been made on Day 5. There is a ton more information out there, based on voting for Days 2, 3 and 4. This new information has changed my thought process a bit, and I no longer think its unreasonable that all three hosts may have been in on a vote against a townie.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I'd say mostly because when I made my post about the Day 1 vote, it was early in Day 2. There was not much to go on at that point, so with the limited information I was trying to make educated guesses. At that time I thought only one, maybe two, hosts would vote against a townie.

My answer to you about all three scum voting together (as I've suggested for the Day 2 vote) has now been made on Day 5. There is a ton more information out there, based on voting for Days 2, 3 and 4. This new information has changed my thought process a bit, and I no longer think its unreasonable that all three hosts may have been in on a vote against a townie.

Well it wouldn't just be a vote.

Day 1 Lego votes Girly, Timbo and I vote activeStick
Day 2 we all vote Girly
Day 3 we all vote you
Day 3 we all vote you