CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Hockeyguy15]

Updated vote count, since I went back to look for myself.

Hasn't Voted (2): Peanut, SebC
Voted:
dissentowner (4): Hockeyguy15, Timbo, bizaro86, GGG
Hockeyguy15 (2): Party Elephant, mrkajz44
Timbo (2): Oling_Roachinen, dissentowner
mrkajz44 (2): East Coast Flame, devo22
Lego Man (1): squiggs96
Party Elephant (1): Lego Man
East Coast Flame (1): Puxlut

[dissentowner]

There are 4 votes on me so from my point of view that means probably at least two, certainly one of those is scum as I know I am town. Yes, I know me saying that means nothing to anyone but me but if I am lynched it gives the other passengers a better focus group to look at and improves the odds of hitting a scum.

[Hockeyguy15]

If Diss ends up flipping as a host, there is a possible link between him and mrkajz.

Earlier on day 1 when Diss had 2 votes against him he says this. It's a subtle but he tries to get the attention off Diss and onto Party Elephant and Seb.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Yeah, the last post by Diss is a bit odd. Oiling sort of nails it on the head, just seems like such a weird post to make with days to go until the deadline and only 2 votes have been placed. However, re-reading Diss' posts, I just don't get the feeling of scum and I think he just was venting a little frustration of being targeted early. I'm interested to see his future posts as alluded to above.

For me, thinking about some of the posts that came off as "different" early on, I have to say that Seb's strategy definitely caught my attention. It has some merit for sure, where there is simply too much noise with lots of posts. Sort of a direct shot against "the more information the better". It's a bit outside the box, but not a terrible idea.

However, what struck me as much more interesting was the way Party sort of latched onto that idea and ran with it. It seems like Seb thought out that strategy and wants to stick to it, but Party just grabbed a hold of the same idea and uses that to explain a very low post count, that has little to no content. Party also said they were new to Mafia, and I'm guessing drawing a Mafia card in their very first game would be very nerve racking and the fear of slipping up would be great, hence the low post count without much substance. Their instant vote sort of tears down that argument though, but maybe it was just heat of the moment?

So, I'm sticking to my idea of waiting until Monday to make a voting decision because posting is so infrequent on the weekends, but Party is at the top of my list for now. I'd like to hear a little more from them.

He follows up that post with this comment about Diss. I find it interesting that he says Diss was talking gameplay quite well already, much more than many others. Posted below his quote is the gameplay Diss was doing at the time.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Okay, just saw that Diss replied while I was typing. That response sort of confirms my thinking. Diss is talking gameplay quite well already, much more than many others at this point. I think the "2 votes already" post was just a frustration post, nothing more.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ok, so like I said before, HG15 seems most suspect to me. He is participating in the game yet trying to steer attention anywhere but himself. The facts are it is early so it is super hard to get a read on anything. Oling played a brilliant game last time yet turned out to be scum but something tells me he is on the straight and narrow this time, gut feeling. SebC's posts are strange but maybe that is just the way he plays. Same with squiggs, coming out early with his vanilla comment but what to make of it? It is basically a crapshoot at this point and we still have time to figure out the voting which is why I have not voted yet. If I did it would be HG15 right now unless something changes. Or do we vote for someone not participating and lurking? Anyhow, if I was scum I would not be calling attention to myself and I would rather we not waste votes on me and hurt the passengers early on when it would be in my best interest to try and sniff out one of the bad guys.

Fast forward to today, the vote count is 2 for me (Diss and PE) and 1 for Diss (me). He posts this write up saying he thinks I'm town, but leaves the door open saying he can see the other side of the argument. Puxlut had previously voted for me, so maybe they are hoping she will be the 3rd vote on me and it will snowball keeping Diss out of the cross hairs.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

The HG angle is interesting. I checked out the post count and HG has 162, with second place being just under 100; so HG has ~60% more posts than the second most active poster. Hard to argue that HG is not steering the ship, or at the very least, is key in the direction of the conversation each day.

He was definitely the leader on the Girly lynch. Here are a few of his first posts after the spore reveal that were directed at Girly.





He essentially decided immediately that Girly turned because her first post was not "I did not turn". I'm not saying that was terrible logic at the time, but as the day wore on and more logical discussions were made, HG did not back down and may have been the beginning of the end for Girly.

It just seems like HG likes to be the driver, makes decisions somewhat quickly and is hard to convince otherwise. Now the question is: would that be scum behaviour, or would that just be a strong town personality? I would think just strong town, but I'm starting to see the other side of the argument.

The vote is now 3 Diss (me, Timbo, bizaro), 2 me (Diss, PE), 2 mrkajz (ECF, devo). mrkajz now comes on and posts this. Again, maybe they are hoping Puxlut will hop on the train and sway the vote their way since she is confirmed town and voted for me in the past.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I tried to get the username mrkzatchwpfh, but it was taken unfortunately, so I had to go with mrkajz44

As for my "drive-by posts", I am quite busy at work and therefore do find it hard to find time through-out the day to post. I tend to find a lull in the day and try to make bigger posts, as I cannot check in constantly. I can see how that would be seen as "drive-by" as the conversation has usually moved on once I get a chance to check back, but that's just the nature of how my work is right now.

The more I think about it, the more I see HG as being Oling 2.0 this game. As stated before, he has a ton of posts and has a great deal of influence in where the conversation is going. It addition, I feel he's getting quite aggressive, so I wonder if a few of us are onto something:



His reply to me when I said HG might have been the beginning of the end for Girly was simply "I didn't like her reaction". I am still curious as to why HG ignored the logic of other posters, and seemed to be a bit headstrong about changing opinions. I also feel his "owning" of getting Girly lynched is a bit of a "I'm running the show, try to stop me" sort of thing:



Looking at the votes, he was both in on lyching Active and Girly, and in my opinion, quite central to both their lynching. I think the hosts would be okay with a stronger personalty such as HG get in on both votes, and even steering people in that direction. Afterwards its easy to claim "well, a host wouldn't be on both lynches of townpeople". It's a good decoy and HG's style plays right into it.

Vote: Hockeyguy15

Diss later on unvotes me and votes Timbo, possibly because there has been talk from a few people that they think he is a host. Maybe they saw that the votes weren't piling up on me like they had hoped and tried to move the votes to Timbo.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Diss later on unvotes me and votes Timbo, possibly because there has been talk from a few people that they think he is a host. Maybe they saw that the votes weren't piling up on me like they had hoped and tried to move the votes to Timbo.

Why would I change my vote to Timbo from you if my sole objective was to stay in the game? The votes were on you just as much as myself and leading the charge against you imo would be easier as you have steered the group into lynching two passengers. I changed my vote because I am more convinced Timbo is scum than you. That does not mean I have changed my mind on you, just trying to help direct the passengers in the right direction so that if I end up lynched they will know where to focus. As a host the smart play on my end would have been to keep the focus on you, not Timbo.

[dissentowner]

Also, I wanted to show that my focus was on Timbo. I don't really need to put the pressure on you as you have once again steered the charge in this vote and it will turn out to be yet another passenger. Pretty sure the rest of the town can figure what that suggests without my help.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Why would I change my vote to Timbo from you if my sole objective was to stay in the game? The votes were on you just as much as myself and leading the charge against you imo would be easier as you have steered the group into lynching two passengers. I changed my vote because I am more convinced Timbo is scum than you. That does not mean I have changed my mind on you, just trying to help direct the passengers in the right direction so that if I end up lynched they will know where to focus. As a host the smart play on my end would have been to keep the focus on you, not Timbo.

As I said in the post you quoted. Maybe you saw that the votes weren't piling up on me like you had hoped and got worried, so you moved your vote to Timbo hoping he would be an easier target because a few people had talked about their suspicions of him before.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

As I said in the post you quoted. Maybe you saw that the votes weren't piling up on me like you had hoped and got worried, so you moved your vote to Timbo hoping he would be an easier target because a few people had talked about their suspicions of him before.

Yet just as many, if not more have already claimed high suspicions on you so why would I do that? If I was a host neither of you would have been my targets at the start of day 3, I would have been leading a mad charge at Oling as he claims to have given the spore to GS who flipped passenger and he is really good at this game which makes him a guy I would want out ASAP. Why that never happened is because I believe Oling is a passenger, was telling the truth about the spore, and is a strong benefit to the town.

[Hockeyguy15]

Oddly enough from what I can tell day 3 is the first time you mention being suspicious of Timbo. It seems like the reason you are suspicious of him is because he is after you, that's the only reason you give here. It also seems like you are more sure I am a host than you are of him.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

This is an easy vote for me, I should have stuck with my original instincts. Puxlut has the same suspicions, HG is directing the game and I believe he is a host for sure. I am also suspicious of Timbo. Notice both are after me because they know I am an experienced player and therefore a threat to the scum. Go back and look at the way HG has manipulated the votes and play. Hell, he even got me caught up in it in the last vote when he assured us all GS was a host. He also has to say "since I know I am town" constantly to try and get that to stick in everyone's head.

Vote:Hockeyguy15

Then you don't mention him again until you change your vote from me to him, but yet you give no reason for him being scum other than you have zero doubt of it.

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Go ahead and vote me out, when I flip town the spotlight will go on Timbo and Hockeyguy15. I have spent some time re-reading posts. The other guy on my radar is GGG, something is definitely wrong with the way he is posting this game. Hockeyguy15 has been steering the ship and I think he is scum but there is a small chance I am wrong. Timbo on the other hand is definitely scum, I have zero doubt. So on that note.

Unvote
Vote:Timbo

Go ahead and kill me, if it gets the passengers on the right track and leads to some scum kills and the passengers survive I still win. Have at it.

[dissentowner]

The key to that is telling that I re-read posts and for me Timbo looked more scummy than anyone. I can't really say anything else, I have given my reasons and explained my thoughts. If people are still convinced I am scum then I am probably not changing their minds after that.

[Hockeyguy15]

What posts did you re-read that tipped you off, and why?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

What posts did you re-read that tipped you off, and why?

Working on it.

[dissentowner]

On post #126 early in the game he posts this:

At this point in the game a lynch seems to always be a crapshoot. At this point I have more evidence leading me to who are passengers.
Dissentowner has been quite meek which makes me slightly suspicious.
GGG comes out very quickly pointing and accusing. Maybe too early IMO
Hockeyguy does as well however he is back to his old self gaming the game again heheh, so I feel fairly confident at this point that he is a true blue passenger.
Oling I don't know if its his name or his avatar that makes me leery of his intentions.
With that being said I think he's also a passenger.
Devo22 has not done much IMO
Peanut might be a rotten nut but it's a gut feeling.
Puxlut I dunno
ECF I dunno
Bizzaro to early for me to tell

Right now I have suspicions on Dissentowner, GGG, Peanut.

So he picks two strong players and a newbie. He claims I am being meek but I was being inquisitive about the rules. Then he claims GGG is suspicious to him for being aggressive which has always been GGG's MO but as the same time says you are playing aggressive as well but that makes you a passenger? Um ok. Looking at this post it seems to point that I should remove GGG from my suspect list except it is early so maybe he throws him out there knowing there is no basis for voting on him yet and it will cover suspicion later.

There may be one person right now who has been turned. If so that person is all alone.
By reading the rules that person does not know who Capt, 2IC, or Engineer are. The Telepathic ability the Alien scum have can only work at night AFAIK and in 30 words or less. The three primary alien scum will know who is turned, but the turned does not know who the three primary are.

I believe is a strong advantage for us at this time in the game.

So if there is a "turned" passenger they are by themselves without any direction or leadership.
I expect this person(if there is one) to lay low, feel things out. They are on an Island until they get another turned passenger.

So I am looking at people who have laid low at this point. I believe that person to be a "turned" passenger.
I feel the three primary alien scum would have more direction and planning since they can communicate with one another right now. In fact I think they might even try to be very active.

With that said I am going to vote for who I think has been feeling the game out a little to much. I think this person might be infected.

Vote: dissentowner

It could be possible that the person who has the spore did not get infected and is unknowing. But for know I will go with this theory.

Then he casts a vote for me knowing I have played in every CP mafia and made it to the end, he wants me out. His excuse is voting for a person laying low and feeling things out. I have 9 posts, Lego Man has 1. He also shows at the beginning of that post he knows exactly how the scum roles work very well.
At post #203 he posts this.

I'm hoping the timing of night 0 might have been different.
But if you are correct then we could have 4 players on the same page assuming that the capt could effectively communicate strategy in the 30 words.

Interesting(open) question if you were the Capt and had your choice of who to infect first.
Who would you choose?
A newb or a known strong player?

So lets go back to his first 3 suspects. He chooses two known strong players and a newbie. Now he is openly asking who everyone would we would infect first. By getting answers to that he gets an idea how others would play it and where not to direct the spore.
At this point I am becoming less suspicious of GGG and more of bizaro86 who in post #221 starts the charge against Activestick.
In post #235 he tries to use humour to alleviate any suspicion after Oling votes for him.

I don't think the smuggler has a chance to hide a player on night 0.
That's why I bring up that question.

BTW in the Mafia thread we prefer to address the spore as "The Salami"
My 2IC wanted to call it "The Pickle" but we got into all that Kosher vs Gerkin argument
Our InGinEar wanted to call it "The Buck" as in pass the buck. Sheesh InGinEars have no sense of haha.
I used my power of veto and we now will "slip the salami" to some poor unsuspecting passenger.

This is something scum would do to try and direct suspicion away.
Post #279 is interesting.

Hockeyguy is right that we need to be more active. Inactivity benefits scum.
So I am sharing my theory that the Captain would choose to infect a known strong player. My list in order of strength(subjective) my and some of my musings
My Top 4
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hockeyguy15 -Winner of last game strong player posts a lot. Meta game master

Oling_Roachinen Winner of last game posts a lot as well as strong on the attack It would be wise to have him on your side rather than an adversary.

dissentowner Also a proven strong player and usually is one of the last ones standing

GGG Often goes on the attack and has the ability to get a following. A pitbull

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The remaining

East Coast Flame Past mafia scum experience

Lego Man Has experience in a few mafia games and yet seems strangely posting low

activeStick Wondering about this player I need a bigger body of work to formulate a more informed opinion

squiggs96 Did not like getting lynched last game and has something to prove.

GirlySports Past mafia scum experience good counterpuncher I feel she often tries to change the thread direction

bizaro86 Im having a tough time reading him

mrkajz44 I am starting to get more and more suspicious of him (just a gut feeling) I suspect him as Captain but I do not have anything but a feeling to back up my claim

Timbo often makes posts that get himself killed

devo22 I don't really have much to go on

Puxlut plays the confused card

SebC I dunno

Party Elephant Newb Possibly drew the scum card

Peanut Newb really not contributing much hiding or just overwhelmed?

So if I were the Captain this would be the order of players I would try to infect first.
I am making a big assumption that the Captain did not go with the ennie meanie minnie mow method.
For now it is all I have to work with and it is quite possible that one of those in my top 4 were given the spore but not infected. I looked for sublet changes in playing style and I felt and I still feel dissentowner is playing differently.

So here he claims if he were the Captain one of those top 4 he would send the spore to. 2 of the 4 are also players he was most suspicious of. So he targets me first for a lynch, keeps GGG on the suspicions list and hands the spore to Oling who is also on that list. Now he is hoping he gets me lynched and turns Oling who is probably the strongest player in the game and like he said, a guy you want on your side. So going back at this point I removed GGG from my suspect list and replaced him with bizaro86.
On post #293 HG15 votes for Activestick. Post #295 Timbo unvotes for me after getting no where up that tree and votes for Activestick, a guy as scum he knows is not and the ball is rolling that way. It makes him seem like he is voting with the group and he has already laid the groundwork on myself and he is still counting on changing Oling with the spore.
Post #305 is a vote count with Active stick leading the way with 4, 3 of those votes are from HG15, Timbo, and bizaro86.
I got to run out for a bit, will continue in a while.

[dissentowner]

At post #415 when everyone starts suspecting Activestick's post could be him hinting he is the smuggler Timbo posted this:

If activefish as Qling called activeStick lol, is the smuggler and we jump off of lynching him what do we gain?
If he can only hide a player once does anyone read that he could only hide himself once as well?
The hiding of a player is a real crap shoot for the smuggler. He or she have to be very lucky early in the game.
If the smuggler can hide himself multiple times it would come in very handy later in the game when he could be a difference maker.

But if we accidentally lynch the smuggler is it really a devastating loss?

Of course it is a big loss for the town and he knows it but he doesn't want those votes being changed because if Activestick is the smuggler(which we now know he was) that is a big win for him and his scum buddies.
Post #479 and by now he knows Oling never turned and he see's the heat is on GS early so he posts this.

If Oling was turned and so was Girly they might have had time to converse in the turned tread.

Confusion is a tool for scum and it seems we might have two players working it.
It gives our GA a 50/50 choice Oling always plays convincing which scares the beejeebus out of me.

He knows neither of these players are scum but this post puts suspicion on both.
Post 497 he is thinking scummily out loud.

Originally Posted by Timbo

Where does that leave Oling? To be investigated right? Or not because if he is turned the Captain has no choice but to kill him to get it back.

After Onling suggests the GA should investigate him Timbo posted:

This is assuming you are not one of the trio of scum. If you are the GA gets nothing and cannot communicate this fact without a reveal

This puts suspicion on Oling whom he wants either turned or gone.
Then these two posts right after

ou proposed this strategy. You might be scum and made this plan.
The spore has no effect on you. You pass it on and get a get out of jail free card.

Kind of convenient how this worked out

You can see Timbo is peeved that Oling did not turn, he is frustrated at this point.
Anyhow I could keep going but I have stuff to do. My top 3 suspects right now in order are Timbo,bizaro86,HG15. Take from it what you will.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Post #479 and by now he knows Oling never turned and he see's the heat is on GS early so he posts this.

Are you aware that hosts know whether a player is turned?\

The hosts will know the identities of the currently living turned at all times.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Just to finish that thought for clarity, you seem to be insinuating that he would have found out at one point, maybe around post #479, that I wasn't turned. If he was host, he would have known by post #3.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Are you aware that hosts know whether a player is turned?\

I was assuming they would because don't they get to send them a message with 30 words or something?

[devo22]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I was assuming they would because don't they get to send them a message with 30 words or something?

Mazrim stated in his first post that the hosts know the names of the turned players at all time.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by devo22

Mazrim stated in his first post that the hosts know the names of the turned players at all time.

Ah ok, well there goes that part. I seriously need to re-read the rules I guess.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Ah ok, well there goes that part. I seriously need to re-read the rules I guess.

You realize how bad this looks, right?

[dissentowner]

The rest of my post still applies though.