CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[mrkajz44]

Nice catch by Oling in Lego's post. Granted that his posts are long and it is possible he remembered a post that he agreed with, but couldn't remember who made it, the slip up smells funny. Couple that with the "don't vote for Girly" but then votes for her anyway, I continue to get the feeling Lego is playing very careful to not rock the boat - almost too much so.

I noticed too that his posts are typically very long with a commentary on everyone. As a result, it becomes harder to follow his logic and then after the mega post, a vote is thrown out. It's really hard to follow the reason for the vote specifically as its burried in the massive post. He also doesn't target anyone specific because the post is about everyone, so no one really continues his thought - a very nice way to blend but still have "good content".

I've also noticed HG has started to back down since a little pressure was put on him. I'm thinking the scum agreed that HG was leading a bit too much and they agreed that he fades into the background a bit.

[Party Elephant]

Very interesting to read the last few pages with little to no input from hg. I'll post some more thoughts on today's activity when I get home, have been absolutely slammed today at work.

[Timbo]

mrKajz44 You know why I bust your balls right? Its because of posts like your last.

It hits Scum Behaviour #1 in my posthttp://forum.calgarypuck.com/sho...&postcount=926

So you surmise that after approx 1000 posts that scum agree that HG15 is talking to much or leading to much?
This now after HG15 has 170 posts they figure "um geese HG maybe you should tone it down some"?
Man you keep digging your hole even deeper.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I've also noticed HG has started to back down since a little pressure was put on him. I'm thinking the scum agreed that HG was leading a bit too much and they agreed that he fades into the background a bit.

Not at all. There has been some good discussion so since people keep commenting how I am driving the bus I'm letting you guys do some of the work. There has actually been some good posts this afternoon, people posting lists and backing those lists up.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by GGG

How does this work in practice, scum girly from last game kept saying she wanted to surprise scum. I really don't understand how forcing town to not have time to think when they vote helps town. It helps scum as they know their strategy, town on the other hand needs time to think and evaluate.

I'm not advocating for thinking late, I'm advocating for acting late. Scum GirlySports might have been scum but I don't think she was wrong. Their strategy needs time to adapt to ours, so we deny them that.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by SebC

I'm not advocating for thinking late, I'm advocating for acting late. Scum GirlySports might have been scum but I don't think she was wrong. Their strategy needs time to adapt to ours, so we deny them that.

How do we come to a cohesive strategy when we cannot communicate with each other and yet Hosts can?
Am I missing something here?

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Timbo

How do we come to a cohesive strategy when we cannot communicate with each other unless in this thread and yet Hosts can?
Am I missing something here?

Sorry fixed my post

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Timbo

mrKajz44 You know why I bust your balls right? Its because of posts like your last.

It hits Scum Behaviour #1 in my http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...&postcount=926

So you surmise that after approx 1000 posts that scum agree that HG15 is talking to much or leading to much?
This now after HG15 has 170 posts they figure "um geese HG maybe you should tone it down some"?
Man you keep digging your hole even deeper.

And fixed this post as link was no good

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Timbo

How do we come to a cohesive strategy when we cannot communicate with each other and yet Hosts can?
Am I missing something here?

If we have a cohesive strategy, and the hosts know what it is because we discuss it openly, we'd be giving them the blueprints to not get caught. That has less value in my mind than independently conceived strategies, independantly implemented, with with a brief co-ordination at the end of the day to ensure that someone actually gets lynched.

I loved the strategizing around lynching the spore holder, I think that sort of stuff has great value, but it was already resolved by the time I started reading the thread.

Simply placing votes for "pressure", and making mountains out of "probably nothing" molehills, you are more likely to be targeting a townie at this point than scum, and that makes things easier for them, not harder.

You don't fear an opponent you understand as much as one you don't. Hence a little bit, or a lot, of mystery is good thing.

[Lego Man]

I wrote that post with XXX at 1:30am here... I just simply glossed over it during my 2nd read through

[Party Elephant]

All I have to say today is to those of you who have played in previous mafia games, which to my understanding is everyone except me and peanut:
I get that you're all comparing each other to how you've played the game in the past, but I think that's getting taken a bit too far at times here. What I mean is, you've all had multiple experiences playing this game to see how things shake out, what strategies worked and what didn't, and you all have the same opportunity to change your strategy based on those experiences. So when I see stuff like "dissentowner must be scum, because he's totally changed his posting style since the last game" I think thats a bit BS. Does it not make sense to change your strategy to keep other players familiar with you guessing? Does it not make sense to adopt a strategy that makes experienced players go "there's no way scum/town would post like that?'

I think posters should be judged on their actions in this game, and not how they've played in the past. But that's enough of that rant.

Hockeyguy is still my #1 suspect. Some of you think that scum wouldn't be that active and that's fine, but I disagree. Without the advantage of a night kill, the scum's best strategy to win is to lead us all into lynching town members and they're off to a good start so far. I don't think it's a coincidence that he led the charge on the first 2 lynches and now that there's a bit of heat on him he's backed off a bit.

I get the suspicions of mrkajz too but I'm not fully convinced. His only action that I can recall specifically was when he jumped on the party elephant bandwagon on day 1 when there was some heat on me, only to back off when I debunked his reasoning for it. Something about jumping on a noob just because he had a bit of early momentum seemed like a bit of a "safe play". Since then I haven't really noticed much from him which could be scum laying low. Or it could be town laying low. Like I said earlier, I suspect the general host strategy would be to steer the group toward town lynches rather than laying low.

[Hockeyguy15]

I don't feel like there is any heat on me Party Elephant. There is really no point in worrying about having votes against you in this game. If I get voted out then I get voted out, when the time comes I will do my death post and let the rest of the town go on without me while I watch from the sidelines.

On top of that I am not really worried about the vote against me from you, and here is why.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Posts like this are exactly why I'm suspicious of you. You just declare that a host wouldn't vote the way you voted, therefore it must be one of the people you list. Are we just supposed to gloss over the logic that got you there? It's the way you write it, like it should be a certainty to all of us that no host would vote that way, that further leads me to believe you are a host.

vote hockeyguy15

This was your reasoning for voting for me. I said I thought it was less likely that a host would vote for both people being lynched, but you turn around and treat it that I said it was 100% fact. So in my eyes you are trying to manufacture a way to vote for me.

If you are so certain I am a host why don't you go back and look at my posts and see if you can manufacture more ways to try and make me look like one? Since you're new I'll give you a tip, it's quite common for hosts to make arguments against people without actually going back and quoting specific posts and showing the others exactly how they are behaving like a host. It's quite hard to make people who aren't hosts look like one which is why they usually make passing comments about people without really backing it up.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Without the advantage of a night kill, the scum's best strategy to win is to lead us all into lynching town members and they're off to a good start so far.

This logic is flawed, the hosts night kill is passing the spore and infecting people. Yes it is only a 50/50 shot at working in most cases but to balance that out they also get the person turned to work with them rather than killing that person entirely.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by SebC

Given that I now have a bit of a pedestal today, I'll try to come up with some stuff that I think is safe to share.

In the meantime, I'll reiterate my position that I think that keeping the mafia in the dark as to who the lynch targets might be creates a town advantage. Uncertainty followed by a short window to react will produce more pressure than votes (particularly if the votes are misplaced).

Seb, did you think of some stuff to share with us? You got a little side tracked with Timbo yesterday after you posted this.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by SebC

I feel a bit dirty now. I foresaw a possibility that I might be somehow implied as town by asking the question, but in order to play within the spirit of the game I intentionally worded my inquiry to be as role-neutral as possible (i.e. "town" instead of "we"), such that a confirmation or rejection from Mazrim would not imply a role. I did not predict that the scum would have had different information than the town!.

So you worded something to Mazrim in a role neutral way. Why? He obviously knows everyone's roles and alignments. When whatever confirmation you were looking for came back, you would still not be allowed to quote it, so you could phrase it however you wanted. I'm puzzled as to what you asked, why you asked it that way, and where you were going with it. I know you're the cryptic post guy, but it seems odd to go about it in this way. The biggest thing I don't get is saying that you posted a question to Mazrim instead of just waiting for the answer and then posting the whole story.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

2 of my top 4 are Peanut and ECF.

For now: Vote: East Coast Flame

I have Peanut and LegoMan. I'm happy to keep my vote on Lego, but wouldn't mind switching to Peanut if there is support.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

So you worded something to Mazrim in a role neutral way. Why? He obviously knows everyone's roles and alignments. When whatever confirmation you were looking for came back, you would still not be allowed to quote it, so you could phrase it however you wanted. I'm puzzled as to what you asked, why you asked it that way, and where you were going with it. I know you're the cryptic post guy, but it seems odd to go about it in this way. The biggest thing I don't get is saying that you posted a question to Mazrim instead of just waiting for the answer and then posting the whole story.

I just took that as part of his cryptic posting style, where he trickles information out a bit at a time.

I was convinced he was town before, and this has cemented that in my mind, as Mazrim all but confirmed he was asked by the scum before and asked by SebC now, which implies that Seb isn't scum, imo.

He may have considered that asking could get him confirmed as town somehow and wanted to increase the credibility of a town claim, but I suspect that was just a happy coincidence.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

This logic is flawed, the hosts night kill is passing the spore and infecting people. Yes it is only a 50/50 shot at working in most cases but to balance that out they also get the person turned to work with them rather than killing that person entirely.

It's a bit less powerful than 50/50, since sometimes the spore will go to a scum/already turned player, which lowers the odds and makes it slightly less powerful than a nightkill, imo.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

Peanut: For some reason I can't even formulate comments on Peanuts posts. There is content, but i suppose it's usually just repeating other peoples ideas and so I never have anything to write down. Idono.


squiggs96: In my mind squiggs has been laying REALLY low and targeting low
posters - which is about the easiest vote to make. Fairly easy to defend, but your not stepping on anyones toes. I also feel the language in squiggs posts.. it's almost as if he's going out of his way not to explain things. I can't put my finger on it... but I think it's something. Also, had the blameless second last vote (or tried to bait someone into lynching) which is concerning.

In conclusion, I believe the three scum are:
PartyElephant
devo22
either Peanut or squiggs

Originally Posted by Peanut

Interesting catch on LegoMan's post, Oling. For me that actually alleviates some of my lingering suspicions from the spore reveal. If you were scum, you wouldn't point out a "scummy" error of a fellow scum. Although that could have been an innocent error by LegoMan, it was kind of suspicious.

There's a bunch of posters kind of laying low and playing it fairly neutral. I would put Squiggs, Devo, ECF, MrKajz, LegoMan, PartyElephant, and Dissentowner in here. I'm sure at least one of them is scum (likely 2), but it's hard to get a good read because they have been playing the game fairly close to the chest IMO. I was suspicious of ECF on Game Day 1. His Day 2 play didn't do much to swing me more town or scum either way. LegoMan is also suspicious to me with his low post count, the way the Girly vote went down (tried to tell us not to vote for Girly and then voted for her himself), and that recent mistake of agreeing with 'XXX'.

People "off" my list for now are Pux, Seb, Oling and HG. And myself obviously. I'm trying to sort out the scum ranking of the rest.

Here's what I find weird. I get called out for laying low by the two players with the lowest post count in the game that are still alive. Even Mazrim has posted more than Lego. I agree people should call people out if they aren't contributing. Since I did it to Lego at the start of this day his post count has gone from 8 to 15. The more people are talking the easier it is to gain information.

In post #396 I said it wouldn't surprise me if Peanut or Lego were a host. I still believe this. I also said there was no reason for either of them to post, since there was no heat on either one. There still isn't, but I like that they've been forced into posting. In the two quoted posts above they both halfheartedly throw a little bit of heat on each other, but I think it's more because they'd like to distance themselves from each other.

My vote on Girly was not blameless. I've stated my reasons for it multiple times. With Peanut lynching Girly, she can play the "obviously a host wouldn't put the hammer down" card. I'm not sure this is correct. I'm up for voting either of these two.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I just took that as part of his cryptic posting style, where he trickles information out a bit at a time.

I was convinced he was town before, and this has cemented that in my mind, as Mazrim all but confirmed he was asked by the scum before and asked by SebC now, which implies that Seb isn't scum, imo.

He may have considered that asking could get him confirmed as town somehow and wanted to increase the credibility of a town claim, but I suspect that was just a happy coincidence.

The post by Mazrim was very good for Seb in aligning him with the town. I didn't think Seb was scum before. He played similar to how I did in Smash Bros. where he is being kind of a jerk, the attention is on him all the time, and it's a very risky move if he was a host. It's a brilliant move if he's a host, but I don't think he is one.