CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Vote: Timbo

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

So I gave GirlySports the spore and, like I said, I did think she had potential to be host but it also gave us the ability to look at the first day as whether it 'mattered' to the host. It ended up being town vs town, although a late reveal town power. So the additional information was the main reason I gave it over her compared to Timbo.

Of course if GirlySports was host with the spore, I thought we might have seen some more pushback with who I thought may have been working with her. The host still would have preferred a passenger lynch and spore staying in the night, but if she was just passenger there was some reason to sacrifice her, maybe a little bit less so if she was turned+spore carrier. Without that pushback and her last post (prior to me unvoting) being very much aligned with how I was feeling I thought she was town.

I think Timbo's our best bet. I think there's potential for mrkajz44's and his accusations against one another to be feigned and if either was host, I would instantly vote for the other. A Timbo host reveal would also allow us to see if people like Squiggs96 went after GirlySports because of the reasons they said they did or to stop any potential shift.

Dissentowner is still posting very inconspicuously in my opinion.


Yeah, and then all of 5 minutes later you were voting for her...

Is the fact that a timbo host reveal tips the scales on mrkajz44 your main reason for choosing Timbo instead of dissentowner or Lego? Just the chance to get two scum at once, or do you think Timbo is more likely to be scum than dissentowner/Lego?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Is the fact that a timbo host reveal tips the scales on mrkajz44 your main reason for choosing Timbo instead of dissentowner or Lego? Just the chance to get two scum at once, or do you think Timbo is more likely to be scum than dissentowner/Lego?

He's my top suspect.

Sigh. I am the anomaly.

I've been racking my brain trying to figure a way to use this "power" for 2 weeks. All I could come up with was keep quiet and then the scum would waste a turn trying to infect me... but just once. But the odds of them picking me anyways are low because I'm not a particularly strong player. But I figure I would just reveal and that way there is one less suspect to distract all of us. People say it's about numbers? What's the math now?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

I've been racking my brain trying to figure a way to use this "power" for 2 weeks.

I think this was a great usage of it. We now know we can trust you, outside of a counterclaim today, and having a confirmed townie who the Host can only rid themselves by wasting a night action is great.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Sigh. I am the anomaly.

I've been racking my brain trying to figure a way to use this "power" for 2 weeks. All I could come up with was keep quiet and then the scum would waste a turn trying to infect me... but just once. But the odds of them picking me anyways are low because I'm not a particularly strong player. But I figure I would just reveal and that way there is one less suspect to distract all of us. People say it's about numbers? What's the math now?

Yeah I can't really think of any other way that I would use it, myself. (assuming we can trust your honesty... ). I'm still lamenting ActiveStick not being more clear that he was the smuggler. That power seems like it could have been more helpful than the anomaly.

[East Coast Flame]

So if a townie gets the spore and isn't converted, we send it over to Puxlut?

That's great Puxlut, I take back my suspicions. Definitely helpful.

[mrkajz44]

I can totally relate to Pux situation, as my power last game was passive (I blocked anything that came to me), so I really had no influence in the night game, and just ended up confusing the everyone more when I was targeted at night. I felt like I was almost hurting us, rather than helping.

ECF is right - next time the spore hits someone and they are not turned, it should be send to Pux to save a day of the spore, and then we can help decide where it goes next too.

I guess the only caveat to this whole thing is Pux is telling the truth, and I guess we might see soon if there is a counter-claim, but I think Pux is being truthful.

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

So if a townie gets the spore and isn't converted, we send it over to Puxlut?

That's great Puxlut, I take back my suspicions. Definitely helpful.

Nice back pedal.

It's a good idea to waste a day though. But it might not get around to that. Worst case scenario is the captain sends it to someone and they turn and we get 2 bad rolls and we screw up like the last 2 lynches and vote out a couple more of our own and the odds are against us again. I don't want to be pessimistic, but we have to look at all angles.

We wasted 2 whole days trying to fence in the spore when I think we should have been trying to vote out scum. Let's start at square one and do that guys!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

So if a townie gets the spore and isn't converted, we send it over to Puxlut?

That's great Puxlut, I take back my suspicions. Definitely helpful.

This is an important question. Is it better to have a confirmed townie or is it better to have a free day where the spore can't turn anyone.

[Hockeyguy15]

Puxlut now that we know you are town can you please do your list of everyone and your thoughts on them please.

Since you are the only 100% town (assuming no one makes a counterclaim) we can use it as a jumping pad for people to build their case against posters.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

I think you're really giving him too much credit for doing nothing

I'm not so much reacting to what he's done as to how he's done it.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

This is an important question. Is it better to have a confirmed townie or is it better to have a free day where the spore can't turn anyone.

I think that is for us to talk about after we get a better idea of who we are lynching today.

If anyone gets the spore tonight that means Oling was lying about giving Girly the spore, as that means it was passed last night and whoever it was passed to was not turned. In that case the spore should be passed back to Oling rather than wasting it on Girly.

If Oling was telling the truth the earliest we will hear about the spore if a person was not infected by it will be night 4.

[Timbo]

Ugg Monday's are a busy day for me.
I'm on the my phone all day so I find it more difficult to post a quality formatted post.
Despite that problem.
I have from the start posted my suspicions of dissentowner he is just post summaries and nothing speak. Major red flag for me.

Puxlut playing confused gave me alerts but she says she is the Genetic Anomaly so she gets a pass.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If anyone gets the spore tonight that means Oling was lying about giving Girly the spore, as that means it was passed last night and whoever it was passed to was not turned. In that case the spore should be passed back to Oling rather than wasting it on Girly.

Do you mean Pux instead of Girly here? Or are you talking about something when Girly was alive?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Puxlut now that we know you are town can you please do your list of everyone and your thoughts on them please.

Since you are the only 100% town (assuming no one makes a counterclaim) we can use it as a jumping pad for people to build their case against posters.

I agree a Puxlut list of potential scum would be a good place to start. I doubt we'll see a counterclaim. If you're host/turned, a counterclaim gives you essentially a 50/50 shot of getting lynched today, depending on who the town beleives. If you manage to talk everyone into voting puxlut and she card-flips genetic anomaly, the person counterclaiming would be instant-lynched the next day. Since the odds of a host/turned getting lynched today are <50/50, I wouldn't expect a counter-claim unless puxlut is lying, and the real genetic anomaly is out there.

If someone else is the anomaly, please come forward. Even if you ended up getting lynched you will have identified a scum, which would be a huge contribution.

Anyway, that's a bunch of text but if puxlut is nearly confirmed town her list is a good place to start.

[Hockeyguy15]

Vote results:

activeStick vote:

Hasn’t Voted (0):

Voted:

activeStick (8): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Timbo, devo22, Oling_Roachinen, GGG, East Coast Flame
GirlySports (5): Lego Man, Party Elephant, activeStick, mrkajz44, SebC
Party Elephant (1): GirlySports
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Hockeyguy15 (1): dissentowner
Lego Man (1): Puxlut

GirlSports vote:

Hasn't Voted (1): SebC

Voted:
GirlySports (9): East Coast Flame, dissentowner, Timbo, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, devo22, Lego Man, squiggs96, Peanut
Timbo (3): GGG, mrkajz44, Oling_Roachinen
Hockeyguy15 (2): Puxlut, Party Elephant
East Coast Flame (1): GirlySports

I think it's less likely a host would vote for the lynched passenger in both votes. If that is true then you can take out squiggs, bizaro, Timbo, devo, and ECF.

The leaves Oling, GGG, diss, Lego Man, Peanut as people who voted for 1 of the passengers.

Oling and GGG have voted activeStick and Timbo - I doubt they are both hosts, as I can't see them wanting to vote the same both times.

Diss voted me and Girly - Voting for me in round 1 is kind of a throwaway, as I wasn't really in play for votes. The reasoning was I was trying to put attention on everything but me.

Lego Man voted Girly both times - It is odd that after his first vote against her on Day 1, he comes back on Day 2 and says he thinks she is town but still votes for her anyway.

Peanut voted ECF and Girly - Randomly votes ECF on day 1 because he is a middle of the pack poster. She seems confused a lot of the time and seems to always have a reason for not being around much. Could she be a host?

Then we have people who haven't voted for any of the people who were lynched. Puxlut (town), Seb, Party Elephant, mrkajz.

Seb voted for Girly and no one - I can't see his posting style being a host, but that's really the only reason I think he could be a passenger. It's tough to go back and say that any of his posts implicate him on anything.

Party Elephant voted Girly and me - Had the snap vote on GGG, then switches to Girly "because of the vote count". At the time he voted Girly he had 2 votes on himself, there were 2 on activeStick, and 2 on Girly (he was the 3rd).

Mrkajz voted Girly and Timbo - Voted for Party Elephant because he thought he was a lurker, and pulls the vote because he didn't notice PE was in NZ and changes to Girly. Votes for Timbo because he didn't like the way the activeStick voting went. He wants us to focus on the first vote, says it a few times. I feel like he piggybacks on peoples theories/logic a lot rather than coming up with his own. Is it a safety valve for him later, so he can say he just went along with so-and so?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Do you mean Pux instead of Girly here? Or are you talking about something when Girly was alive?

Yes sorry, that last Girly should be Puxlut.

[Peanut]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Vote results:

activeStick vote:


GirlSports vote:


I think it's less likely a host would vote for the lynched passenger in both votes. If that is true then you can take out squiggs, bizaro, Timbo, devo, and ECF.

And you. You also voted for ActiveStick and Girly. So guess you're implicitly putting yourself in the "less likely a host would vote for the lynched passenger in both votes" category.

And apologies for being confused and busy. I've never played before, or even read along, but I think I'm getting the hang of it slowly. And I actually am just really busy with work and family. I am making an effort to prioritize the game more, though. It's pretty fun.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Peanut

And you. You also voted for ActiveStick and Girly. So guess you're implicitly putting yourself in the "less likely a host would vote for the lynched passenger in both votes" category.

And apologies for being confused and busy. I've never played before, or even read along, but I think I'm getting the hang of it slowly. And I actually am just really busy with work and family. I am making an effort to prioritize the game more, though. It's pretty fun.

I specifically left myself out, since I know I am town. You guys can do your own analysis on me.