Will the flames make the playoffs next year (2015/2016 season) ?

[buyakasha]

Anyone betting a pubic meal?

[Enoch Root]

My initial reaction to the question is 'no - close, but no'

But then I look at the Pacific division and I think 'yes'.

Anaheim - lock
LA - hard to call, but I expect they'll be back in
Van - I think similar, but marginally worse than last year. Just another year older for the core
SJ - the more I think about it, the more I think they fall quite a bit this year
Edm - I think SJ could be so bad there is a chance the Oilers slip past them.
Phx - another 10 free points.

When I look at that list, I see LA, Van and the Flames fighting for 2 spots. I like our chances of finishing ahead of at least one of those teams.

The biggest question for the Flames, IMO is goaltending

[Quincy Egg]

No.

They will likely follow the same path as the Colorado Avalanche. The underlying stats simply don't support the notion that the Flames can be a playoff team next year.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Otto-matic

If they can get a real goaltender this summer, I dont see it out the realm of possibility.

Sure it's possible, but would you bet on it? You list it as a potential reason the Flames might not make the play-offs. Edmonton is the least of my worries regarding the Flames next season.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by Quincy Egg

No.

They will likely follow the same path as the Colorado Avalanche. The underlying stats simply don't support the notion that the Flames can be a playoff team next year.

All things being equal. Do you think all things will be equal next year?

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by Quincy Egg

No.

They will likely follow the same path as the Colorado Avalanche. The underlying stats simply don't support the notion that the Flames can be a playoff team next year.

Oh boy. Not this garbage again.

[dammage79]

Yes, the Flames will make the playoffs next year. In what will likely be the same way the got in this year. Fighting.

Only difference next year hopefully is the top 6 D men stay healthy whoever they are and that there's a smidge more size in the FW group.

[Quincy Egg]

Originally Posted by _Q_

Oh boy. Not this garbage again.

How exactly is it garbage? There will be a similar roster, and the (assumed) improvement of some of the players will not offset the sub-mediocre possession stats.

[mile]

Originally Posted by _Q_

Oh boy. Not this garbage again.

Think that was a joke.

[Imported_Aussie]

Pacific Division 2/3 seed.

Anaheim are a lock in the Pacific.
LA and Calgary are most likely 2/3, though Vancouver could be in the mix.
San Jose slipped, but could bounce back
Edmonton will be better, but likely not better enough
Arizona are 2 years away from being 2 years away

[_Q_]

Originally Posted by Quincy Egg

How exactly is it garbage? There will be a similar roster, and the (assumed) improvement of some of the players will not offset the sub-mediocre possession stats.

I'm tired of this argument.

I'm really hoping for a Rangers vs Ducks finals this year to shut up the Corsi folks.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Quincy Egg

No.

They will likely follow the same path as the Colorado Avalanche.

Your underlying stats are oblivious to the not-so-underlying stats:

The 2014 Colorado Avalanche gave up 2671 shots against (25th best in the NHL) while getting Vezina-calibre goaltending (5th best sv% in NHL).

The 2015 Flames gave up 2381 shots against (12th best in the NHL) while getting league-average goaltending (15th best in NHL).

And before you toss in "Calgary and Colorado both rode an unsustainable shooting percentage"...

2014 Colorado Avalanche were 2nd in 5vs5 sh% (8.80)
2015 Calgary Flames were 2nd in 5vs5 sh% (8.88)
2015 Colorado Avalanche were 5th in 5vs5 sh% (8.75)

...so Colorado was still shooting very high percentages this year.

NTM Colorado lost a two-way Top 6 center in Paul Statsny while the Flames are about to lose.. Raphael Diaz and Ladislav Smid maybe. While adding David Schlemko, and hopefully full seasons from Mikael Backlund, Mark Giordano, Sam Bennett, Michael Ferland.

[Enoch Root]

Hey, you know what else is funny?

Kesler for Bonino, Sbisa and McCann.

[_Q_]

Our best players will only get better. If we get improved goaltending, I think we challenge for the division next season.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Quincy Egg

How exactly is it garbage?

Where are your underlying stats for last year's Minnesota Wild? 21st in 5vs5 corsi% last year and they only got better this year to the point of being in the 2nd round.

How about the New York Rangers, dropped from 8th to 19th in CF% and got better this year while losing Brad Richards. One of the last four teams left in the NHL.

How about the Anaheim Ducks, 17th in CF%, one of the last four teams left in the NHL.

How about the Montreal Canadiens, 26th and 23rd in CF% in consecutive years, conference finals and 2nd round in consecutive years.

Or the Carolina Hurricanes, 9th in CF% in consecutive years, at no point even remotely close to a playoff spot in either of those years.

No one denies that underlying stats have their value but they are not predictive of anything. They themselves are not predictable.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

While all this may be true, your locks only include Anaheim in our division. I think we have a decent chance at landing in the 2/3 spot in the Pacific.

Exactly. It's not a top 8 in the Conference any more, so it doesn't matter how many good teams there are in the Central if you can be one of the top 3 in the Pacific, and I definitely think the Flames can be.

Obviously, things can change once players start moving around in the summer, but for now, I see it as Anaheim being likely to win the Pacific and Arizona likely to be horrible next season and the early favourite for 30th.

Edmonton will likely improve (if we say this every summer, it's bound to come true one time), but probably not enough to be in the playoff mix (hopefully, they'll improve enough that every game isn't just a free 2 points for their opponents -- Calgary games excluded). Unless they make some changes this summer, Vancouver and San Jose are both set to continue declining.

It's often been said around here, but the Canucks are following the path the Flames were on 4-5 years ago. All of their top players are over 30. Next season, Miller and the Sedins will all be 35 and Burrows, Vrbata, and Bieska will all be 34.

The Sharks have more young guys in their core mix, so they could have a bounce back season, but I don't know if DeBoer is the right guy for the job.

The Kings are a bit of an enigma right now. Going into this season, no team in hockey had played more games over the last three seasons than LA. They may have just been worn out and will bounce back strong after a long summer off. Also, the whole Voynov situation hurt the team probably more than it would have if he had just suffered a season-ending injury (will that even be resolved before the start of next season?). On the other hand, every coach has a shelf-life, and they may have started to tune out Sutter. If that's the case, there could be a clash of egos in the room next year, which wouldn't be good for team success.



Barring significant injuries or major changes to personnel on any of the teams, I see the Flames fighting with the Kings for the 2/3 spots in the Pacific while Vancouver and San Jose fight for the wild card spots.

[Eric]

Yes the Flames will make the playoffs next season. I am done doubting this team. I have no reason to believe they won't keep getting better.

[N-E-B]

Outside of Anaheim I don't see a team in the pacific that is better.

San Jose and Vancouver are both old and declining and I think Vancouver falls out of the playoffs.

LA I think gets back in but as the 3rd seed. Possibly could finish ahead of the Flames but I think they'll finish 2-4 points back again.

Edmonton and Arizona are dumpster fires.

[Resolute 14]

Our best advantage is the fact that we play in the worst division. The Flames can make the playoffs, but I wouldn't bet on destroying the Pacific in head to head match-ups like that again. We can trade that off by being much better against the East.

When I look at our division, I see Anaheim as clearly in, and Edmonton and Phoenix as clearly out. That puts us in a four-way battle for two guaranteed spots, and a six or seven way battle for a wildcard spot.

The question, to me, is how all the players on career years will follow-up. That is what will probably largely determine if we finish 2nd in the Pacific, or 5th.

[Bezer]

I went no.. but I wouldn't be shocked if we were 2nd in the Pacific.

My issue is not the Flames, although they may come down to earth a bit, it's more with other teams. There are so many good teams in the west it won't be easy if they do make it.

I also worry that teams know what to expect from the Flames and I think we will see less 3rd period comebacks due to teams not letting their guard down.

BUT even if they don't make the playoffs but we see some good player development then I am somewhat okay with it. Rome wasn't built in a day and all that.

My real hope for next year is we get another fantastic pick in the first round who could legitimately make the jump to the NHL. Unlikely but you never know.