CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

No,

Presume girly is 100% turned and the agent is alive. Then there is no difference between lynching and letting the agent take care of it.

In one game it will be day 3 and one game it will be day 4. This does not matter as at the end of both days we will have made 1 lynch attempt on the hosts, killed 1 turned, and have lost the spore.

So this means to evaluate whether to lynch girly you need to only look at the cases where girly hasn't been turned. Oling host, girly host, girly unturned with spore decide which is most probable and lynch accordingly.

So why are you trying to strong arm people and are being slightly rude about us having to go with your plan if they are the exact same end result in your opinion?

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Night 2 - Investigate Oling to be safe

I made a similar point earlier saying it gives the G-man an investigative shot but then I thought about it more and it is on the presumption that the g-man gets a confirmation of turned or unturned if Oling is one of the 3 Hosts the Gman will get I presume an unturned reply to his investigation.
So we cannot be 100% sure

[devo22]

I feel lynching Girly and having the agent check Oling is the best way to go. Worst case scenario is that Girly hasn't turned and we therefore lose another townie, but I for one have very little doubt that she has turned. Investigating Oling could potentially give us an unexpected double hit (Oling turned, Girly host), but that's obviously unrealistic. Maybe the agent has a better idea when he uses his night action, but with a 50 percent chance of Oling being turned, I think it's worth a shot.

The idea about the anomaly revealing already is interesting. My first reaction was a clear no because we have already lost a power role and giving the hosts the name of another one is not ideal IMO (although I think the anomaly is the weakest of the 3), but I can see the reasoning behind it. Skeptic though.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Timbo

I made a similar point earlier saying it gives the G-man an investigative shot but then I thought about it more and it is on the presumption that the g-man gets a confirmation of turned or unturned if Oling is one of the 3 Hosts the Gman will get I presume an unturned reply to his investigation.
So we cannot be 100% sure

I know, you investigate him because he had the spore so the investigation is to make sure he wasn't turned.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Timbo

I made a similar point earlier saying it gives the G-man an investigative shot but then I thought about it more and it is on the presumption that the g-man gets a confirmation of turned or unturned if Oling is one of the 3 Hosts the Gman will get I presume an unturned reply to his investigation.
So we cannot be 100% sure

Yeah but by investigating Oling and lynching Girly we eliminate all of the turned for sure. Of course Oling could be a host and therefore return a negative ibvestigation result, but the number of scum would at least stay at 3 then instead of possibly being higher.

[Timbo]

Olings been playing very good early in this game (with the exception of his early suspicions of me)
He thinks Girly might be a host that is why he gave the spore to her.
I think she is turned I think it is unlikely she is a host but we could get lucky.
At this point I believe mrKazj44 and Dissentowner are my primary suspects to be hosts

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by devo22

Yeah but by investigating Oling and lynching Girly we eliminate all of the turned for sure. Of course Oling could be a host and therefore return a negative ibvestigation result, but the number of scum would at least stay at 3 then instead of possibly being higher.

If you think Oling could be host why don't you do it the other way. Lynch Oling and investigate me. This way you can tell me where to send the spore.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by devo22

My first reaction was a clear no

I think that's fair reaction but I think it stems from other mafia-game styles where we risk losing the player. What is the scum going to do in this scenario? Give him the spore and waste a night? That's not a bad trade-off. Avoid giving him the spore? Well that means we have a confirmed town who we can give the spore to if we really need that freebie night.

There is some implication to the Government Agent as well. Yes, it's one less place for him to hide but even if we get down to 6 passengers and him hiding, it's a 1/6 chance they pick right and a 1/4 he actually turns 4.2%. If the Genetic Anomaly is known, it becomes a 1/5 chance they pick the passenger and a 1/4 chance of turning, still only 5%.

[bizaro86]

Does anyone else think the lengths GGG is going to defend girlysports are interesting? Possibilities:

Girly is host:
GGG could be host trying to defend her and keep host numbers up. This would be especially true if Girly is the captain. This is a risky play, since it links them if girly gets lynched and flips scum, but GGG is an aggressive player.

Girly is turned:
Similar to above. Because GGG is using meta-game logic in defence, he can argue that his play was still the right one even if girly was turned. Not much risk to him, potential to save a turned if the agent investigates oling instead.

Girly is town:
GGG is trying to keep a town player in the game. This is either good town play, or someone trying to establish town bonafides for after what looks like a probably cardflip.

Of course, GGG could just believe in the logic he's presented and be a very aggressive town player trying to sell everyone else on his idea. This has been a pretty aggressive defense even for him.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Olings been playing very good early in this game (with the exception of his early suspicions of me)
He thinks Girly might be a host that is why he gave the spore to her.
I think she is turned I think it is unlikely she is a host but we could get lucky.
At this point I believe mrKazj44 and Dissentowner are my primary suspects to be hosts

Similar to devo. If don't think I'm the host and have turned, you should lynch Oling and investigate me, instead of vice versa. Because if you don't think Oling has turned, investigating him would be a waste.

And again you can tell me where to send the spore.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by devo22

Yeah but by investigating Oling and lynching Girly we eliminate all of the turned for sure. Of course Oling could be a host and therefore return a negative ibvestigation result, but the number of scum would at least stay at 3 then instead of possibly being higher.

I agree I have said as much in a few posts that anyone(with the exception of the Genetic Anomalys first contact) is suspect.

My point was I did not want anyone to think that after night 2 that Qling is 100% confirmed townie.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

If you think Oling could be host why don't you do it the other way. Lynch Oling and investigate me. This way you can tell me where to send the spore.

You all know my thoughts on this.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Similar to devo. If don't think I'm the host and have turned, you should lynch Oling and investigate me, instead of vice versa. Because if you don't think Oling has turned, investigating him would be a waste.

And again you can tell me where to send the spore.

GirlySports, if you think there's a possibility I am host, why would you even think you have the spore? Everything I would have said would be a lie...

You know you have the spore, because you are either:
a) scum and know that I'm telling the truth
b) turned, and know that I gave you the spore

[Hockeyguy15]

Vote: GirlySports

You're a turned passenger, so you're almost as good a lynching a host at this point in time. Take you out now and we avoid having another person turned for a day.

Tomorrow we can regroup and decide if the anomaly should reveal, and who the most likely host to lynch is.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

If you think Oling could be host why don't you do it the other way. Lynch Oling and investigate me. This way you can tell me where to send the spore.

Repeating what has been said numerous times:

Either one of you could be host or turned, so in many ways, it's a coin flip who to lynch and who to investigate. BUT since you are the current spore holder, lynching you prevents the spore from being passed on and gives us a full day to concentrate on the hosts. Not a bad plan IMO.

Plus I don't buy the "you can tell me where to send the spore" play. As othera gave said - if you are scum, you will not do what the town asks of you. You'd send it somewhere else and we'd lose track / have a lot of confusion as to who really got it.

Sorry, but lynching you is the safe play in my opinion.

[devo22]

I'm writing all of this on my phone, since I'm on the train right now. Can someone give me a quick vote count please and how many votes we need fot hammer? I want to vote for Girly but don't want to accidentally hammer.

[Mazrim]

Vote Count

With 16 alive, it takes 9 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 6 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn't Voted (7): devo22, Puxlut, Peanut, Party Elephant, SebC, mrkajz44, GirlySports

Voted:
GirlySports (6): Oling_Roachinen, East Coast Flame, dissentowner, Timbo, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15
Timbo (2): Lego Man, GGG
Peanut (1): squiggs96

The deadline is Monday, June 1st at 10:00 PM Mountain Time. Hammer cannot be dropped before Thursday, May 28th at 10:00 PM Mountain Time.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Ha, Mazrim on the ball there for Devo22's request.

[devo22]

vote GirlySports

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Oling: You could look at it the other way, if I had switched to Activestick and he turned up town (or in this case the smuggler) then it would be pretty obvious I voted to save myself, and probably got a buddy in on the vote earlier.

That's too obvious. I wasn't worried because I have no reason to save myself.

She says that she didn't vote ActiveStick because she had no reason to save herself. And to her credit if she was town, that was a very unselfish play.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Well Oling has spoken and the town wants information. Here it is.

Oling had the spore and was not turned. He's given it to me and I have not been turned. I won't know this for a fact until the end of Day 2 which is when I assume Oling found out (end of Day 1)

So we have two confirmed townies. Armed with that information, you guys should be digging the others. 3/14 are scum.

Here she wants to confirm us both as townies for some reason.

Originally Posted by GirlySports

If you think Oling could be host why don't you do it the other way. Lynch Oling and investigate me. This way you can tell me where to send the spore.

Now she want to lynch me first and save herself...

Quite the 180.