CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

-Have girly send the spore back to oling. That way, if oling is a host we get the benefit of nobody getting turned that night.

Ideally, if GirlySports isn't lynched, she should send the spore, as she suggested, to our top suspect for scum (or second top after today's vote). The best case scenario is lynching host carrying the spore. I kind of feel I would get a bit vindicated if she does have the spore as at least it would reveal I wasn't lying about who had it but if I'm the top suspect so be it, albeit I'll protest to that.

On Day 3 if GirlySports is alive, and we didn't accidentally lynch Government Agent:

• She was town, she would have sent to the person the town suggested.
• She was host, Government Agent didn't work against her and spore is missing
• Government Agent is either GirlySports or Government Agent ####ed up.

I think we could rule out the third possibility just playing the odds. So on Day 3, we either lynch who she sent the spore to (as he/she would be our top suspect and currently be holding the spore) or her (as we believe she is host). If she denies having the spore at all, the obvious lynch would be between me and her.

So I would advocate holding an official lynching vote, as normal, but also a secondary unofficial vote for who GirlySports should send the spore to - as she earlier wanted.

Of course if she dies from Government Agent, spore would have gone somewhere 'random' and which is why I'm also comfortable lynching her but I'm a bit less reluctant to letting her live as I earlier was.

[mrkajz44]

Re-reading the thread from the beginning and I figured someone would bring it up again that I asked the question if the spore holder would know they had the spore if they had not turned. As stated before, I was just speculating and happened to be right:

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I did not have any extra information on the spore thing - I was just speculating and ended up being correct. The fact that Maz posted a clarifying explanation shows that the information was ambiguous and needed to be cleared up.

I'll leave it at that because that is what happened.

Also, HG saying I think the three roles are overpowered is incorrect. There was a brief moment were the math didn't work out due to Maz's error. It was at that point I said that the agent ALSO having the anomaly, or the smugger ALSO having the anomaly, would be overpowered. I think that's a reasonable analysis. Maz then fixed the math, and one person having two powers was no longer possible.

It is a bit interesting that the majority of the spore talk is driven by five people: Oling, Girly, GGG, Timbo, and HG. Four of those people voted out Active, the only known townie at this point. My prior post about looking at the voting reasons seems to have been skimmed over a bit, and I wonder if that was done intentionally? Post lots of volume over here about the spore and the vote / lynch analysis of day 1 gets lost or not done at all.

[Timbo]

Let's see
Talk about the spore you are suspect
Don't talk about the spore you are suspect
That's some great detective work going on.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Assumptions: Oling is town and was given the spore on night 0 and was not infected.

To add to this, if you go through my first couple of posts, they really read as though I know I have the spore and want to reveal (and I realize that could easily be argued against me having some evil mastermind plan before today and not just coincidence but whatever)

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

I think it makes most sense for carrier passenger to reveal and us not kill him. You know, assuming this is working how we think it is - which might not be the case.

It would make a lot of sense for scum to be reading that as "Hey, guys I have the spore and I want to reveal but I don't want you to kill me."

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I agree with this. We can take some time to decide what to do, but the spore carrier should reveal themselves, imo. If they don't, we have to assume the night 0 turn was successful.

I still think we should kill the spore carrier based on the math I posted above, but I'm only one vote. We have lots of time before we need to hammer someone, so we could discuss it at length.

Less information/more lies only help the scum.

So I'm not super stoked with bizaro86's early posts now. If he's scum, he's pretty much telling me to reveal...and then would want the town to lynch me.

And you're right that Puxlut and/or mrkajz44 could have been worried I was about to reveal and wanted an excuse not to have the town trust me.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Ok I am going to go do a mega post now that I am on lunch. I just want to say though that I think we should be lynching Girly and here is why.

I fully believe she is turned from the spore, and that we should lynch her to prevent her from passing the spore. I believe we have enough info to go on to hunt scum and don't require another vote to get more info.

GGG you are worried about the spore going back to the hosts because they will send it to a 'high value target', but that is exactly what will happen with Girly and it will be a day sooner than if the spore goes back to the hosts.

If we lynch Girly we have tomorrow to wade through the day 1 posts knowing that the hosts would have known Oling had the spore and was not infected. If we lynch Girly today the infected player is out, the spore is out, and tomorrow we have a shot at getting a host. If we lynch someone other than Girly, we have a shot at getting a host but then Girly gets to infect a strong player tonight before the agent can kill her.

I'm not worried that the host will send it to an hvt. I am saying that it's better that girly passes with a 3/15 chance of hitting host then a host sending it out. Unless Girly is host or our agent is dead we are better off letting the agent take care of girly.

Whether we lynch girly or the agent takes care of her we have 1 lynch inbetween when the spore is next passed on.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Timbo

I just made a statement of observation. By all means if you wish to talk about me please go ahead.
If there is a component of this game you feel I should only talk about please enlighten me.

You made as the heat was turning up on you. It's suspicious as you are diverting attention from you to other areas without making any real accusations.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

To add to this, if you go through my first couple of posts, they really read as though I know I have the spore and want to reveal (and I realize that could easily be argued against me having some evil mastermind plan before today and not just coincidence but whatever)


It would make a lot of sense for scum to be reading that as "Hey, guys I have the spore and I want to reveal but I don't want you to kill me."


So I'm not super stoked with bizaro86's early posts now. If he's scum, he's pretty much telling me to reveal...and then would want the town to lynch me.

LOL. I think the biggest thing is the only way either you or I would have known you had the spore is if one of us was scum. I know I'm not, but obviously that doesn't carry much weight with anyone else.

I think you are cagey enough to have a big master plan about this, but I also think its at least as likely the scum picked you to send the spore to first as a known strong player.

As for myself, if I was scum and had sent you the spore, I wouldn't have pushed for the spore carrier to get lynched. Logically, I would want to lynch some other passenger and let the spore keep going.

Anyway, I still think if we don't have a good read on scum the spore carrier is not a bad choice for a lynch, and you're probably right that we should send the spore to our 2nd highest choice for being scum.

So I propose an alternative to Oling/girly's plan for holding a separate vote for the spore. Why not just ask girly to send it to the person with the second most votes for the lynching? Presumably that's the person the town thinks is second most likely to be scum. I don't see why we'd need two separate first-past-the-post ballots running.

[GGG]

One thought I had to say is we should pass the spore to lurkers as a way of removing them. When town has the spore it's like us controlling the night kill. So to encourage participation in thread we send the spore to the scummiest of the low posters. I'd rather not send it to someone like Timbo who while suspicious is contributing. I hink we use the spore to try to pick off the host who is trying to coast buy or is generally non helpful.

Right now my leading spore candidate would be SebC.

[GGG]

I also think the person with the spore should pick on their own and not be bound by the towns strategy. We just need to know where it's going. The only confirmed town from the spore holders pov is the spore holder. Voting allows the turned and the host to influence it.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

I'm not worried that the host will send it to an hvt. I am saying that it's better that girly passes with a 3/15 chance of hitting host then a host sending it out. Unless Girly is host or our agent is dead we are better off letting the agent take care of girly.

Whether we lynch girly or the agent takes care of her we have 1 lynch inbetween when the spore is next passed on.

GGG, I wouldn't necessarily say 3/15 chance of going to Scum though. If she's turned, we don't know what she has been told from the host. We only know they can't hint at who they are, would that prevent them from saying who to send the spore to? Maybe in a more roundabout way? There's some chance, so I guess that's better than nothing, but it's not completely random.

Originally Posted by bizaro86

So I propose an alternative to Oling/girly's plan for holding a separate vote for the spore. Why not just ask girly to send it to the person with the second most votes for the lynching? Presumably that's the person the town thinks is second most likely to be scum. I don't see why we'd need two separate first-past-the-post ballots running.

Another alternative would allow the soon-to-be lynched player a deathpost before the hammer indicating who to send the spore to. If the lynched player reveals town, we can at least be certain that the spore-target would be picked by 100% townie.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

LOL. I think the biggest thing is the only way either you or I would have known you had the spore is if one of us was scum. I know I'm not, but obviously that doesn't carry much weight with anyone else.

I think you are cagey enough to have a big master plan about this, but I also think its at least as likely the scum picked you to send the spore to first as a known strong player.

As for myself, if I was scum and had sent you the spore, I wouldn't have pushed for the spore carrier to get lynched. Logically, I would want to lynch some other passenger and let the spore keep going.

Anyway, I still think if we don't have a good read on scum the spore carrier is not a bad choice for a lynch, and you're probably right that we should send the spore to our 2nd highest choice for being scum.

So I propose an alternative to Oling/girly's plan for holding a separate vote for the spore. Why not just ask girly to send it to the person with the second most votes for the lynching? Presumably that's the person the town thinks is second most likely to be scum. I don't see why we'd need two separate first-past-the-post ballots running.

The bolded is faulty logic. The spore infection rate vs town lynches is unchanged as long as the agent is alive so the preference for the host would be to lynch the spore carrier and get to chose the next target over the risk of a turned sending it to a host. And a policy of always lynching the spore carrier leads to us lynching unturned. So the host is far better off with lynching the spore carrier.

[GGG]

Oling, I agree it wouldn't be 3 of 15 but some number larger than 0 that it is if the host is passing.

[GGG]

Question for Mazrim

Can a host name anyone's name in a message or is that considered alluding to who they are by saying who they are not.

[GGG]

As for suspects right now I have Oling and HG as town. (I had them here last game)

For lurkers I liked Legos summary, I need more from peanut.

I don't like Seb (mostly style though) and think Timbo was subtly trying to move discussion off him and on to lurkers.

On reread I'm less certain girly is turned and won't vote to lynch her.

So for now I'm going with Timbo

vote timbo

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

I also think the person with the spore should pick on their own and not be bound by the towns strategy. We just need to know where it's going. The only confirmed town from the spore holders pov is the spore holder. Voting allows the turned and the host to influence it.

But then you are trusting the spore-holder (turned or not) to send the spore. I would rather the town tell me that way there is no risk of it being host controlled.

I would agree to sending the spore to 2nd place.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

But then you are trusting the spore-holder (turned or not) to send the spore. I would rather the town tell me that way there is no risk of it being host controlled.

I would agree to sending the spore to 2nd place.

A turned is not going to follow the towns plan. An unturned should send it to whoever they say they are sending it to as townies gain nothing from deception.

I don't get how the town telling you eliminates host control unless of course you are a host.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Seb took a bunch of flack for this, and I'm pretty sure the reason he said it is if someone unvoted girly at the last minute and we had no lynch day 1, that person is an obvious lynch day 2, it would be huge scum information.

Winner! You might be smart enough to be my telepathic mason partner after all!

[squiggs96]

The hardest part for me right now is trying to read Oling. I wouldn't put it past him to have this whole elaborate plan built up. Some of the things he is saying here aren't much different than his style in Smash Bros. I didn't read earlier games, so maybe that's just how he goes. Let's suppose it is an elaborate ruse. If he is lying about having the spore, I figured we would have someone contradict him by now. If he is lying about where he sent the spore, I'm not sure that gets him too far. I don't see the end game on it. That's not to say there wouldn't be one, it's just I don't see it.

I'm going to vote Peanut. The last thing I said in Day 1 was that it wouldn't surprise me if one of Peanut or Lego were a host. I'll stick with that.

vote Peanut

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

A turned is not going to follow the towns plan. An unturned should send it to whoever they say they are sending it to as townies gain nothing from deception.

I don't get how the town telling you eliminates host control unless of course you are a host.

An unturned should send it to who the towns agrees is the best choice. That is better.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

The hardest part for me right now is trying to read Oling. I wouldn't put it past him to have this whole elaborate plan built up. Some of the things he is saying here aren't much different than his style in Smash Bros. I didn't read earlier games, so maybe that's just how he goes. Let's suppose it is an elaborate ruse. If he is lying about having the spore, I figured we would have someone contradict him by now. If he is lying about where he sent the spore, I'm not sure that gets him too far. I don't see the end game on it. That's not to say there wouldn't be one, it's just I don't see it.

I'm going to vote Peanut. The last thing I said in Day 1 was that it wouldn't surprise me if one of Peanut or Lego were a host. I'll stick with that.

vote Peanut

In this plan if Oling (host) gave the spore and it turned Player A then no would out Oling's story. Then he says he gave it to me then i get lynched i cant confirm it either.

Nobody will know and the spore is back in his hands.

The perfect crime.