CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

I think giving the spore to one of the three just to gain trust with us would be a move that Oling and Timbo would be smart enough to try and pull off. I would be willing to vote Oling to investigate this theory. But I would much rather try and vote someone else. We've got some time. Let's get some more convos going and see what we can pull from it.

If I was smart enough to pull of that plan why was it me that FIRST proposed this as a possibility?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

The only issue I have GGG is in the Lynch Other scenario if we get to Day 3 and Girlysports is alive, is it because she wasn't turned, Government Agent ####-up or already scum? If it's because she is one of the hosts, we really really hurt ourselves and I gave her the spore because I thought she may be host. So I think I'm keeping my vote.

Im okay with that. Im trying to dispel the notion that the spore being out of play for a night is a benefit.

The vote on girly or not should be made on do you think it is more likely that she is unturned or scum. If she is turned and not the agent there is no difference between lynch and no lynch.

Lynching girly does not stop the spore compared to letting the agent kill her. Bother result in the same game state.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

GGG, you keep using the term "high value target". What constitutes a high value target? Obviously the agent is the highest value but with no way of knowing who that is how would he/she be targeted? Or do you just mean certain posters have more value than others, and if so who and why?

I see 3 passing scenarios
host passing to there most valued target
Turned passing to most valued target with possibility of hitting host
townie passing attempt to hit turned or host

So I think a HVT from assessing best options is when the host or turned have control

[squiggs96]

Just a quick note to let everyone know I'll have my thoughts ready during lunch. I don't want it to seem like I'm lurking and only posting when someone realizes I haven't posted since the end of day 1.

[Timbo]

Unfortunately the twist with the spore is it sure takes the heat off of lurkers and inactive.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Unfortunately the twist with the spore is it sure takes the heat off of lurkers and inactive.

And you want to subtley drive conversation back to them after you pick up a few votes?

[Hockeyguy15]

Ok I am going to go do a mega post now that I am on lunch. I just want to say though that I think we should be lynching Girly and here is why.

I fully believe she is turned from the spore, and that we should lynch her to prevent her from passing the spore. I believe we have enough info to go on to hunt scum and don't require another vote to get more info.

GGG you are worried about the spore going back to the hosts because they will send it to a 'high value target', but that is exactly what will happen with Girly and it will be a day sooner than if the spore goes back to the hosts.

If we lynch Girly we have tomorrow to wade through the day 1 posts knowing that the hosts would have known Oling had the spore and was not infected. If we lynch Girly today the infected player is out, the spore is out, and tomorrow we have a shot at getting a host. If we lynch someone other than Girly, we have a shot at getting a host but then Girly gets to infect a strong player tonight before the agent can kill her.

Originally Posted by Timbo

If I was smart enough to pull of that plan why was it me that FIRST proposed this as a possibility?

Sorry, it was the comments made by bizaro and HG saying that the three of us were a team and I wasn't paying attention. I need to start taking notes and not being so defensive dammit!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

And you want to subtley drive conversation back to them after you pick up a few votes?

Maybe if some of the less active posters posted a "Vote:Timbo" with reasons he'd be happier.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Yes Puxlut, that's correct.

-----

I'm not sure killing the spore-carrier is an advantage for us because the spore would return to the captain who would then kill one of the turned to get the spore faster or wait a day. Either way the spore will go one of the passengers next.

Let'sset some scenarios. One of the 14 passengers currently has the spore right now (spore-holder). If he's been turned he knows he has it, otherwise he won't know til tonight.

Scenario 1) He's been turned.
a) his winning condition will have changed to win with the hosts
b) he will try not to get lynched, we lynch someone 3/17 it's one of the hosts
c) if we lynch sporeholder (1/17) it's a passenger and spore goes back to captain to use on night 2 (nobody has spore on day 2)
d) if spore-holder is not lynched, he passes the spore on on Night 1, 3/16 chance it lands on the host next, 13/16 on a passenger
e) if he tells us on Day 2 who he gave the spore to (target), he will be safe and we lynch the target. If the target is one of the hosts, great! If not, we lynch another passenger which gives us 3 hosts + 1 turned + 11 passengers.
f) then the captain may lynch the turned to get the spore back. then it's 3 hosts against 11 passengers and he gets to infect someone right away.

This is not good at all, way too risky and we could be in for a short game.

Scenario 2) He's has not been turned.
a) He doesn't know he has the spore so he acts normal until tonight.
b) We lynch someone 3/17 chance it's one of the hosts, 1/17 it's spore-holder
c) He will give the spore to target and on Day 2 tell us who target is.
d) We lynch target, chance that target is host 3/15, passenger 12/15, spore returns to captain, captain has no turned to kill so won't get spore until Night 3.

This scenario is not bad because no one will be turned on Day 2 but still some gamble because we may lynch one of the role players who the spore did not affect anyways.

I don't like killing (target) because the spore keeps returning to the captain which guarantees that he will give it to a passenger next. I think it's better to randomly keep passing the spore around. The spore-holder right now (even if already turned) doesn't know who the hosts are. We want the spore tonight to be passed to one of the 3 hosts, the person hidden by the smuggler, the genetic anomaly guy or even the government agent (two flips). The more Days that the spore lands on people that can't be infected the more numbers we hwill ave. Because the more people that are turned makes our winning condition harder and they can talk and not give the spore to each other.

This post sticks out to me after re-reading the thread as requested. It's pretty much the exact situation we find ourselves in, with girly having a not-very-good reason to not lynch the target (herself).

The whole thing just seems weird and overly coincidental. Plus, I think the logic is flawed. If the spore goes back to the captain he gets to pick, 50/50 shot of getting a turned. But since he has to wait a turn if nobody has flipped, then we have a 50/50 shot of getting either one or zero after two turns.

If the spore floats around by itself, there's a 25% chance of zero, a 50% chance of 1 turn, and a 25% chance of two turns. This is materially worse for the town.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

And you want to subtley drive conversation back to them after you pick up a few votes?

I just made a statement of observation. By all means if you wish to talk about me please go ahead.
If there is a component of this game you feel I should only talk about please enlighten me.

[Hockeyguy15]

Assumptions: Oling is town and was given the spore on night 0 and was not infected.

Fact: The hosts know Oling has the spore and was not infected.

Interesting posts in the order they happened.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Haha - leave it to Oiling to get the ball rolling early!

Is it possible the person who received the spore would not know about it until the night phase? That would throw a kink into the assumption that if the spore already turned someone, then that person would remain silent. Maybe I'm not reading the description of the spore correctly?

Mrkajz's first post, could this be a host trying to find out if Oling knew he had the spore or not?

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Sorry, I am tired. So, we should assume then that if the spore carrier is infected they won't reveal as now their victory condition has changed. How does it work though? What I am wondering is let's say the coin flip comes up not to infect, does Mazrim then have to tell the target they were even targeted if there is no infection?

Originally Posted by Puxlut

This is what I was thinking.

I think this game is going to make me crazy again. And this time: no turtle sex

Diss and Puxlut both wondering if the person who has the spore is aware they have the spore. Again, is this hosts wondering if Oling knows he has the spore?

Originally Posted by Puxlut

But the first one to admit it gets a free pass. If the Captain says it's him and he passed it to passenger A and we kill Passenger A, that doesn't help us. And then we aren't going to target the Captain because we thing he was just the first schmuck to get the spore.

Puxlut is the first to come up with this idea. Possibly setting up for when Oling eventually admits he has the spore?

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I agree with Puxlut here, as the first person to reveal could by lying about one of these things (or both I guess):

1) They actually got the spore
2) They didn't turn when they got the spore

So really, the big risk with pushing an early reveal is thinking we have better information now, when really we are worse off than before.

Mrkazj is quick to agree to Puxlut on this. Is one of them a host setting up for the Oling reveal?

Originally Posted by GGG

Why did you think this here?

GGG asking mrkazj about the first quote I posted. If mrkazj is not a host it's possible GGG is and is using the post again him. He may be trying to make it look like mrkazj had more info than he was letting on.

Originally Posted by Puxlut

So right now, someone has the spore, but may or may not know it? They would only know it if they turned? If they didn't turn, they won't know until after tonight (after we lynch someone?)

Even though Mazrim has already confirmed Oling has no knowledge he has the spore, Puxlut continues to worry about it. Possibly a host still fishing to see if Oling knows he was the target for the spore?

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

GGG and Oiling - I was just being a bit cautious with the game. There were assumptions being made and I was concerned a plan would be made just a few hours into the game on assumptions that didn't hold true. It turns out my speculation was right that if the spore was given out and the person was not turned, they actually don't know until the first night.

We really have to watch assumptions being made, especially early. The clan thing really threw the game off the rails in the last game due to a lot of assumptions (or guesses) being made about them.

This post is not a lie, mrkajz could be a host being cautious to see if Oling knew he had the spore and was worried any plans he and the other hosts made could be thrown for a loop if Oling was aware he had the spore.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Interesting catch. The first post is clear there are 14 innocent and 3 hosts (paragraph 2 and 3 under game setup). So with 12 vanillas and 3 special powers, the math doesn't quite work. Either:

1) Mazrim made an error in how many vanillas there are (unlikely IMO)
2) Either the agent or the smuggler also has the genetic anomaly

Since the agent already has the double coin flip to turn, getting the anomaly as well seems like an overload. So maybe the Smuggler also has the anomaly because they are move likely to get the spore by hiding people?

Regardless of being a host or not, this is a weird view to take. He thinks the town would be too overpowered if we had a government agent, smuggler, and the anomaly?

Originally Posted by Timbo

At this point in the game a lynch seems to always be a crapshoot. At this point I have more evidence leading me to who are passengers.
Dissentowner has been quite meek which makes me slightly suspicious.
GGG comes out very quickly pointing and accusing. Maybe too early IMO
Hockeyguy does as well however he is back to his old self gaming the game again heheh, so I feel fairly confident at this point that he is a true blue passenger.
Oling I don't know if its his name or his avatar that makes me leery of his intentions.
With that being said I think he's also a passenger.
Devo22 has not done much IMO
Peanut might be a rotten nut but it's a gut feeling.
Puxlut I dunno
ECF I dunno
Bizzaro to early for me to tell

Right now I have suspicions on Dissentowner, GGG, Peanut.

If Timbo is a host it looks like he gives Oling the weirdest reason for being leery of him and the says he's probably a passenger. Is this so later on when Oling reveals the spore Timbo can say he was weary of him the whole time?

That takes us to page 7, or post 140. I'm going to eat, I'll do some more digging after.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

This post sticks out to me after re-reading the thread as requested. It's pretty much the exact situation we find ourselves in, with girly having a not-very-good reason to not lynch the target (herself).

The whole thing just seems weird and overly coincidental. Plus, I think the logic is flawed. If the spore goes back to the captain he gets to pick, 50/50 shot of getting a turned. But since he has to wait a turn if nobody has flipped, then we have a 50/50 shot of getting either one or zero after two turns.

If the spore floats around by itself, there's a 25% chance of zero, a 50% chance of 1 turn, and a 25% chance of two turns. This is materially worse for the town.

Yes but then you'd have to continue this all the time and trust that the spore-holder is telling the truth.

Night 0: spore goes to someone (host's choice)
Day 2: spore holder says he didn't turn, reveals target, lynch target
Night 2: spore goes nowhere
Day 3: lynch someone
Night 3: spore goes to someone (host's choice)
Day 4: spore holder says he didn't turn reveals target, lynch target
repeat.

If any of the spore holders are lying about being turned and giving the spore (under hosts orders) to a passenger, then we are automatically lynching the passenger on even numbered days every time. And on top of that, the hosts have less and less non-host/non-turned people to send to knowing that we will lynch them for sure.

That's my original fear.

Why would the hosts want to know if Oling knew he had the spore?

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Why would the hosts want to know if Oling knew he had the spore?

To know if he had turned or not.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Why would the hosts want to know if Oling knew he had the spore?

why wouldn't they? It's a game of information. The more info you can get in this game the better.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

Why would the hosts want to know if Oling knew he had the spore?

Because if he did know he had the spore, they would have to be careful about what they said so they wouldn't incriminate themselves in a way the spore holder would be able to tell.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

To know if he had turned or not.

The hosts know if a person is infected or not.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

To know if he had turned or not.

Mazrim wrote in the first post that the hosts know the identities of the turned players at all time, so they wouldn't need to find out in the thread.

[Party Elephant]

Guys, I'm going to be really busy today so I've only read up to post 560. I'll let you know when I've caught up with the rest.

And Lego man, I'm a he