CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I found GGG's post summarizing the reasons people voted for Girly, though its not as in depth as I remember.



These new developments are interesting though, especially for Girly. Oling and Girly were both the most interested with the spore on Day 1 and the strategy for it going forward. Now we find out that Oling (allegedly) had the spore Day 1 and passed it to Girly. Could be a coincidence, but something I noticed. Girly was very interested in the spore until it came to her though, and is now advocating for less focus to be on it. I can't wrap my head around the entire thing yet, but something smells fishy.

I was not interested in the spore. In fact I was arguing with him to not be so interested. Because the target would be lynched automatically which defeats the purpose if we get favorable results which we have at the moment.

[devo22]

It's a tough call for sure. My gut feeling is that lynching GS would still be the best option at this point. That is, if we believe Oling about passing the spore to her. At this point I do ... it'd be hell of a plot to be lying the whole time about that and I don't see it. Too risky for scum to make a move like that this early in the game IMO.

I get the "we are hunting the hosts, not the turned" argument, but can we really let a potential turned player off the hook? There's a 50 percent chance she's turned if she's town ... plus there's also the chance she's a host anyway.

[East Coast Flame]

A lot to digest here.

The only problem with the letting the agent go after Girly tonight is if she is scum - she would survive and then be able to say she wasn't turned. Obviously we can't have the agent reveal themselves this early, so what then?

I don't see any way we can't lynch Girly today. Plus the added benefit of stopping the spread for a day.

Vote: GirlySports

[Timbo]

Stop the spread of the spore for now. Seems to be the only recourse in my mind.
Oling then gets his key to the spaceships trust. For me, too many things are popping up Oling, maybe it is just a coincidence.
or
Lynch a random which means the spore maybe lost and we might end up lynching a passenger again.
Or Girly truthfully tells where she passed the spore and we get lucky on the lynch.

Stoping the spread of the spore is the only sure thing we have. Do we want to squander this opportunity?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by SebC

I'd be fine with that. See if you can figure out why.

Seb took a bunch of flack for this, and I'm pretty sure the reason he said it is if someone unvoted girly at the last minute and we had no lynch day 1, that person is an obvious lynch day 2, it would be huge scum information.

Seb, it probably either makes sense to say what you think without being crytpic. Your ideas get out there and get incorporated into the game, and it makes you seem less suspicious. As a group we're probably with it enough to figure them out, which keeps them from being secrets to the mafia anyway.

The alternative is really to keep your ideas to yourself completely and see if they come to fruition, and then pounce.

The breadcrumbs thing isn't working, it's just frustrating to those of us who aren't as smart as you, and it'll probably get you lynched, which is too bad, because I think you're probably town and have the potential to be a valuable teammate.

[Timbo]

This game is a game of a group of informed vs a group of uninformed. Making ambiguous and or cryptic statements further muddies the waters for passengers and benefits scum. So make up your mind and say what you mean in a clear concise manner.

[bizaro86]

So I went through the spore/oling/girly thing in my head, and have a few thoughts.

Oling admitted to getting the spore night 1. That leaves two possibilities:
1) Oling is a host
-That implies that someone else was turned night 1 and kept quiet.
-Oling having the plan in advance where he is the key player in the plan does seem awfully suspicious, by declaring it "before he knew" he had the spore, it seems more credible. But that is exactly what a scum oling would do if this was a plan to control the flow of the game.
-In the past when oling was scum he was able to control the game and lead the town down irrelevant paths, which would be consistent with this theory.

2) Oling really got the spore and didn't turn
-He did send it to girly
-He has terrible luck having explained his plan in advance
-He thinks girly is the most likely person to be a host. Sending it to the most likely host is the best way to prevent extra people getting turned, plus if you lynch them you get a double whammy - kill a host plus stop the spore for a day.

If we think 1) is more likely, we should lynch oling.

If we think 2) is more likely, then it's 50/50 that girly turned if she's not a host. If she turned or is host, we should probably lynch her and stop the spore, plus reduce their numbers. If she didn't turn, we may want to keep the spore under our control, and lynch the person we think is most likely a host. So far the best argument for someone else being host is by Legoman that Timbo is a host.

I think the best course of action may be the following:
-Assume girly hasn't turned, so lynch someone else, my suggestion is Timbo.
-Then, have the government agent investigate girly. That way if she has turned, she dies anyway, so no downside to assuming otherwise and lynching someone else.
-Have girly send the spore back to oling. That way, if oling is a host we get the benefit of nobody getting turned that night.

This plan has at least some benefit under all the scenarios that are plausible, except possibly girly being host, which I think is the least likely scenario.

I think this is what we should do. Timbo has changed his posting style, and his vote for activestick was not well supported, it felt more like a pile-on from scum to make sure a townie got lynched.

Vote:Timbo

[Hockeyguy15]

Bizaro, if Girly has turned she is not going to send the spore where we tell her.

[Hockeyguy15]

If you go back to the start of the thread and read it knowing that Oling was given the spore to start things get a little interesting. Timbo almost seems to be setting up Oling with some comments, and Puxlut has some interesting replies if you have that context in mind.

I'm going back to read again, but I just wanted to get that down so other people can go and take a look.

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If you go back to the start of the thread and read it knowing that Oling was given the spore to start things get a little interesting. Timbo almost seems to be setting up Oling with some comments, and Puxlut has some interesting replies if you have that context in mind.

I'm going back to read again, but I just wanted to get that down so other people can go and take a look.

If Oling is telling it correctly - he wouldn't have known he had the spore until Night 1

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

If Oling is telling it correctly - he wouldn't have known he had the spore until Night 1

Mazrim confirmed early on that if you aren't infected you don't find out you have to spore until the night phase.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Bizaro, if Girly has turned she is not going to send the spore where we tell her.

My plan assumes girly hasn't turned. If she hasn't we lynch our alternative best guess for host and she sends it to oling, who could potentially be host.

If she has turned, the government agent kills her, but we lose the spore. However, we've still lynched our best guess guest for host and killed a turned player, so it could be worse than that, even though we've lost the spore.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If you go back to the start of the thread and read it knowing that Oling was given the spore to start things get a little interesting. Timbo almost seems to be setting up Oling with some comments, and Puxlut has some interesting replies if you have that context in mind.

I'm going back to read again, but I just wanted to get that down so other people can go and take a look.

Interesting. I will start from the beginning when I have some time.

Are you thinking a timbo/oling/puxlut scum team?

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Mazrim confirmed early on that if you aren't infected you don't find out you have to spore until the night phase.

Right, thats what I said

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Interesting. I will start from the beginning when I have some time.

Are you thinking a timbo/oling/puxlut scum team?

Not Oling.

I feel like since the hosts already knew Oling was not infected by the spore that maybe they were setting him up so they could plant the seed about him planning this all along.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

If Oling is telling it correctly - he wouldn't have known he had the spore until Night 1

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Right, thats what I said

What are you trying to say, because I am missing it.

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Not Oling.

I feel like since the hosts already knew Oling was not infected by the spore that maybe they were setting him up so they could plant the seed about him planning this all along.

ohhh, ok. I got what you were saying. I thought you were saying Olings comments should be read in a different light. Gotcha.

I think giving the spore to one of the three just to gain trust with us would be a move that Oling and Timbo would be smart enough to try and pull off. I would be willing to vote Oling to investigate this theory. But I would much rather try and vote someone else. We've got some time. Let's get some more convos going and see what we can pull from it.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

ohhh, ok. I got what you were saying. I thought you were saying Olings comments should be read in a different light. Gotcha.

Ah, ok.

No I didn't mean re-read Olings comments, I meant go back and read everyone's comments.

Now we know the hosts knew Oling had the spore and was not turned. If you read everyone's comments with that in mind there is some interesting activity in some posts.

[mrkajz44]

So HG, you are thinking that the hosts saw an opportunity early and tried to jump on it? As in, the hosts give the spore to Oling, but he doesn't turn. Oling comes out strong with the spore talk and the hosts decide they might be able to use this to their advantage as they know he has the spore, but Oling does not?

I don't have time right now to re-read, but will probably have time at lunch. Interesting angle to look at it.