CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[SebC]

Oling, that's precisely the sort of thing I feel is better left unsaid. Why tell scum what they can do? I didn't mention it because I felt I had sufficient reason to rule it out, at least for now, as a likely scenario. And you, of course, have stronger reason than I.

[GGG]

Assuming Girly is turned 100%

Lynch Girly turned
Day 3 15 alive, oling is either host or currently town.
Day 4 14 alive, spore with high value target 50/50

Lynch Girly town
Day 3 15 alive, oling is either host or currently town.
Day 4 14 alive, spore with high value target
Day 5 possible info

Lynch other girly turned
Day 3 14 alive 3/15 chance of lynched scum, 11/28 chance of high value target being turned.
Lynch other girly not turned
Day 3 15 alive, spore at lvt, next investigation set.

So if girly is turned lynching her adds one day to the game, no extra lynch opportunities. Instead of us lynching other on day 2 and the agent killing at night and the spore going to a high value target and then day 3 starts we lynch girly on day 2, spore does nothing night 2, day 3 we lynch random and night 3 an high value target gets the spore.

The number of lynches and where the spore is is identical except girly could send to the host accidently giving us an atvantage or girly might not be turned. The benefit of lynching girly would be confirming oling isn't turned which is pretty low prob.

Can someone else make any sense of what I just said?

[Timbo]

At any rate its time for me to get some sleep and hopefully see what others think we should do.

[GirlySports]

GGG: we don't know if Oling really gave the spore to me, this can only be confirmed if I'm alive.

You all shouldn't be concerned where the spore goes next, I'm letting you decide for me.

[GGG]

Let's see if I can simplify it.

Lynch Girly
Day 2 Lynch girly 15 alive
Night 2 agent and spore do nothing
Day 3 lynch other 3/15 chance of lynching scum
Day 4 14 alive no knowledge of the spore

Lynch Other
Day 2 lynch other 3/15 chance of scum
Night 2 spore is passed, girly is killed
Day 3 14 alive no knowledge of spore


Does that help. I'm pretty sure I'm right.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

GGG: we don't know if Oling really gave the spore to me, this can only be confirmed if I'm alive.

You all shouldn't be concerned where the spore goes next, I'm letting you decide for me.

The only scenario that ends differently is if you are unturned or scum. If you are scum lynching is the way to go if you are still a passenger then not lynching gives the location of the spore.

So the girly decision comes down to which is more likely that she is scum or that she is turned.

I'm not considering oling as turned as a possibility as that would be very poor strategy and will come out soon.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by GGG

The only scenario that ends differently is if you are unturned or scum. If you are scum lynching is the way to go if you are still a passenger then not lynching gives the location of the spore.

So the girly decision comes down to which is more likely that she is scum or that she is turned.

I'm not considering oling as turned as a possibility as that would be very poor strategy and will come out soon.

This is why I say lets assume that both Oling and I are town and concentrate on the rest. The voters from the last round. We are fortunate to win two coin flips so let go from there. Tell me what to do next. Don't spoil the opportunity by just killing the target each time.

[Party Elephant]

I think we have to consider the possibility that oling is lying about the spore entirely. If so, he never had it in the first place and in turn hasn't passed it to girly. (Of course there is still the remote possibility that whoever did have it in this scenario passed it to her as well). This leaves us wasting a lynch on town AND wasting a GA investigation if we go along with his plan. Considering what timbo pointed out about oling laying out this spore plan very early in the game, I'm pretty suspicious of oling right now.

For this scenario to work it would mean whoever actually had the spore turned, and is thus not speaking up, and whoever has it now is not yet aware.

What do you guys think? Too tinfoil-hat?

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

Let's see if I can simplify it.

Lynch Girly
Day 2 Lynch girly 15 alive
Night 2 agent and spore do nothing
Day 3 lynch other 3/15 chance of lynching scum
Day 4 14 alive no knowledge of the spore

Lynch Other
Day 2 lynch other 3/15 chance of scum
Night 2 spore is passed, girly is killed
Day 3 14 alive no knowledge of spore


Does that help. I'm pretty sure I'm right.

You're right, if we assume that GirlySports is turned (not host, not town) and that the Government Agent makes it to night 2.

If I really ####ed up and GirlySports was the Government Agent and turned, or if we are unlucky and lynch the Government Agent then obviously Lynch Other scenario would be different.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I think we have to consider the possibility that oling is lying about the spore entirely. If so, he never had it in the first place and in turn hasn't passed it to girly. (Of course there is still the remote possibility that whoever did have it in this scenario passed it to her as well). This leaves us wasting a lynch on town AND wasting a GA investigation if we go along with his plan. Considering what timbo pointed out about oling laying out this spore plan very early in the game, I'm pretty suspicious of oling right now.

For this scenario to work it would mean whoever actually had the spore turned, and is thus not speaking up, and whoever has it now is not yet aware.

What do you guys think? Too tinfoil-hat?

To flesh this theory out a bit more:

Night 0:
Captain gives spore to scum A

Night 1:
Scum A gives spore to passenger

Day 2:
Scum B (oling) claims to have passed spore to Girly. We lynch Girly (passenger), GA investigates oling and comes up with nothing. Spore still at large.


It would be a brilliant plan from the scum's point of view.

[Oling_Roachinen]

The only issue I have GGG is in the Lynch Other scenario if we get to Day 3 and Girlysports is alive, is it because she wasn't turned, Government Agent ####-up or already scum? If it's because she is one of the hosts, we really really hurt ourselves and I gave her the spore because I thought she may be host. So I think I'm keeping my vote.

[Party Elephant]

GGG, you keep using the term "high value target". What constitutes a high value target? Obviously the agent is the highest value but with no way of knowing who that is how would he/she be targeted? Or do you just mean certain posters have more value than others, and if so who and why?

[Lego Man]

In my opinion, the game essentially starts on post 343. Some bad luck voting out the smuggler, but that’s the game. Oling_Roachinen got the spore, and then gave it to GirlySports. I say we investigate Girly and Oling_Roachinen later. It’s too risky from Oling’s point of view to be bluffing… like he said – that’s unnecessary attention as he was relatively safe prior to the confession.

16 alive. Bolded (50% chance for italics) are scum : devo22, Timbo, bizaro86, squiggs96, Puxlut, GGG, Peanut, Party Elephant, SebC, Lego Man, mrkajz44, East Coast Flame, Hockeyguy15, GirlySports, Oling_Roachinen, dissentowner

GirlySports: reacts immediately, in a townish manner to aS hint. Afterwards, admits to having no other ideas before Day1 lynch which is fair. However, I fully endorsed Oling_Roachinen against her as he reminisces on past times - until her defensive arguments. I’m buying what she’s selling. Her reaction would have been differently if she did indeed turn. +1 town

Timbo: rather than follow up on activeStick hint, he questions (and pressures) him by saying “active stick do you not have any suspicions on anyone?” – thereby attempting to shift attention away from the hint and possibly attempting to distract the town. If aS came back to defend himself, I think the waters would have been mudded for the Day2 to an even greater extend. We probably would have voted out Girly and no one. Either would help in Timbos cause to convince us he is town. NOW, he’s using the confusion created by Girly and Oling as a means to eliminate both of them, helping scums cause. Once they flip town, he can say it was 50/50 a wrong hunch. And Timbo keeps planting seeds of doubt that Oling is turned. Only downside… he is participating like a town member… it’s tough to sift through it all. +1 cum

SebC: reacts immediately in a townish manner to activeStick hint and subsequently votes for GirlySports. Does not jump on the activeStick vote train. Don’t know what to think about cryptic post. Also, we know he’s not dumb because of the newsflash. Then proceeds to vote and unvote for GirlySports in less than a minute, somewhat contradicting the newsflash. +1 town

Peanut: Pregnant. How can scum be pregnant? +67 town (hopefully this strategy doesn’t come back to haunt me)

Hockeyguy15: Plays the game how it should be played… but powerful posters are inherently dangerous to our cause. If he’s town, Scum will pass the spore to him sooner rather than later and we lose our MVP. If he is scum (and Flying Spaghetti Monster help us all if that’s the case), I can’t imagine the thread trending towards voting him off until the very end. Still, I think he is town. +1.1 town, -1 scum.

PartyElephant: As they say here in Poland: a newbek. Classic newbie. Newb. Or is that the perfect cover? I don’t agree with her (I hope) theory a few posts above.

GGG: Generally, contributes simple yet effective posts to help the odds of the town succeeding. Suspicious of PartyElephant… I can probably jump on board with him on that. Even if he is scum… helpful to our cause. Entirely agree with him on post #504. +1 town

Oling_Roachinen: Admitted to getting spore, which moves the likelihood that he’s town to ultrahigh… unless it’s a super ultra-bluff of the century and he did turn but is telling the truth about whom he passed it on to. Also was willing to change vote to SebC which is par for the course apparently.

Squiggs96: There are posts with generally useful thoughts, but I’m not sure what to make of them. Probably town.

Puxlut: Why keep bringing up the LegoMan? 90% of the first day posts are fluff and I said what I had to say. It’s pretty clear that’s not how a scum member would go about it. I get the sense that all the other town members recognize I am town and will deal with me later if my posting style begins to decrease our odds at winning the game. As it stands, keeping a useless town member in is smarter than lynching one out. It benefits scum to get rid of the obvious town members from the outset. At the very least, something to think about later on. +1 town, -1 scum for getting rid of low poster/town member early.
EastCoastFlame: Suspicious of SebC, but leans towards activeStick… then mentions “although Looking at the people that have voted for Girly....Lego, Party, Elephany and Active...that’s not a great group to associate with”… or is it?

devo22: It grinds my gears when people post “well ... that wasn't exactly the start we had hoped for” and that post count will be used as an example against my low post count. SOOO HELPFUL. (not a personal jab at you devo22, just a bitter about Day1 lol). Back on topic, the aggravation towards SebC is funny and provides me with confidence that he is town.

dissentowner: No opinions as of yet. Might be the posting style is neutral or something. Idono.

mrkajz44: absent since post 343, maybe scum

bizaro86: absent since post 343 (I think), maybe scum

For all you post count Nazis: notice how I didn’t separate my thoughts into numerous posts. This should make up for Day 1.

Thoughts. How many scum participated in the votes for aS and GirlySports? Did Timbo and EastCoastFlame vote for aS?

Vote: Timbo

I agree with GGG. We won't win the game by voting out townies (turned or otherwise) We just need to vote out the 3 main scum. We do that by catching people in lies. That's where the investigations come in.

[Lego Man]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

I agree with GGG. We won't win the game by voting out townies (turned or otherwise) We just need to vote out the 3 main scum. We do that by catching people in lies. That's where the investigations come in.

Exactly. We have information about Oling and Girly that is useful for the next few days. Let's put pressure on someone else. Like I mentioned before... Timbo might be a good place to start.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

Unless girly is the agent that wouldn't occur tonight.

But we could lose the agent tonight if Girly passes the spore to them. As I said before, Maz said that the Agents investigation/kill will not prevent the spore from being passed. Girly will pick someone to send the spore to, is investigated and killed, the spore is then passed to the person she picked.

Originally Posted by GGG

You guys are assuming that girly is 100% turned. We need to price that risk in. As a general strategy lynching whoever gets the spore is a bad idea.

I am almost 100% sure she is turned or a host. Her reaction to Oling revealing he passed the spore to her was not town. You would think in that situation someone would right away say they weren't turned, instead she panics and starts trying to point the question back onto Oling by asking me why the Agent should investigate her before Oling.

Originally Posted by GGG

Assuming Girly is turned 100%

Lynch Girly turned
Day 3 15 alive, oling is either host or currently town.
Day 4 14 alive, spore with high value target 50/50

Lynch Girly town
Day 3 15 alive, oling is either host or currently town.
Day 4 14 alive, spore with high value target
Day 5 possible info

Lynch other girly turned
Day 3 14 alive 3/15 chance of lynched scum, 11/28 chance of high value target being turned.
Lynch other girly not turned
Day 3 15 alive, spore at lvt, next investigation set.

So if girly is turned lynching her adds one day to the game, no extra lynch opportunities. Instead of us lynching other on day 2 and the agent killing at night and the spore going to a high value target and then day 3 starts we lynch girly on day 2, spore does nothing night 2, day 3 we lynch random and night 3 an high value target gets the spore.

The number of lynches and where the spore is is identical except girly could send to the host accidently giving us an atvantage or girly might not be turned. The benefit of lynching girly would be confirming oling isn't turned which is pretty low prob.

Can someone else make any sense of what I just said?

The only benefit of lynching Girly today is that we get 1 night of our 2 power roles not being in jeopardy of being turned, that's it. If we lynch her the agent can investigate Oling and confirm he isn't turned. The spore is in limbo for 1 night and we can do some analysis on voting patterns tomorrow.

If you are fine with the risk of Girly passing the spore to the Agent tonight then there is no benefit to lynch her today.

[mrkajz44]

I'll pick up a bit where Lego left off. The only real information we have at this point (other than hearsay on this spore thing) is that Active was town and who voted for them. I compiled a list for who voted to Active as the time of lynch and summarized their reason for voting for him based on their voting post:

Squiggs - Notes that Active Stick is inactive and figures its too convenient (later indicates it was a flippant remark)

Bizaro - Wants to get the inactives posting more and Active only had 4 posts so far with two of little substance

HG - Indicates Active posts a lot of questions but not much else and decides its time to "turn up the heat"

Timbo - Wants to "run people up the flagpole" and somewhat passively agreed to HG's reason for the vote

Devo - Weird feeling - has the feeling Active was playing similar style to the last time he was mafia

Oling - Wants to avoid missing a lynch and picked Active instead of Girly (his other implied target) - 6th vote to get the "lynch on" by deadline

GGG - Wanted to vote Party, but not enough support at deadline and picked the better of the two options (Girly vs Active) to help ensure a lynch

I did this summary in order of votes as well, so Squiggs is first and GGG was last. I think its important to look at this first vote as I'm guessing there is at least one scum on here (maybe two, but the numbers were not really required, so I'm leaving it at one for now).

Two of the middle votes have me most interested. Timbo votes with little to no reason, other than agreeing quickly with the HG vote, so that's a bit weak. Devo's vote is based of past playing experience, which I suppose isn't a terrible reason on day 1, but is not basing it off anything in the current game. I guess I feel both of those reasons were not strong, and they came in as vote 4 and 5 to make Active the front runner. I think one of the two are scum based on that, but can't pick between the two at this point.

I think GGG did a somewhat similar analysis on the votes on Girly near the deadline - I go back and see if I can pull that. Obviously this does not tell us as much as the Active vote since Girly's status is uncertain, but she was the other front runner before lynch.

[mrkajz44]

I found GGG's post summarizing the reasons people voted for Girly, though its not as in depth as I remember.

Originally Posted by GGG

So I don't like the reasons people are voting girly

Active stick - the second vote on party
Party - second vote on Party
MrKajz - good reason -- the focus on day 2 strategy
SebC - something about a window
Lego - second vote on Party

The second vote on Party makes sense. He is the best suspect right now.

look at his posts it's newb scum including the sarcastic admission of being scum. The double revenge votes.

Activestick is a little better but I don't see it.

SebC voted so at least thats something

unvote
party elephant

The clear leading scum candidate. Between the leading candidates I will be switching to active at the deadline to preserve Girly but neither of those are good lynches. Join me on the Party train.

These new developments are interesting though, especially for Girly. Oling and Girly were both the most interested with the spore on Day 1 and the strategy for it going forward. Now we find out that Oling (allegedly) had the spore Day 1 and passed it to Girly. Could be a coincidence, but something I noticed. Girly was very interested in the spore until it came to her though, and is now advocating for less focus to be on it. I can't wrap my head around the entire thing yet, but something smells fishy.

[dissentowner]

I can't see why we would not lynch GS knowing she carries the spore. It prevents the passing of it for a whole day and buys us some time. If we don't she will continue to claim she was never turned and if she did that is another person manipulating and voting with the scum. We could investigate Oling but what is the point? I feel he is either a host or an unturned passenger, I believe the latter. If he is a host it will be a waste because the GA will get a false reading right? I say we lynch GS and investigate someone else, my recommendation there would be Timbo as the way he is playing is throwing up some serious red flags for me.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Lego Man

bizaro86: absent since post 343 (I think), maybe scum

Just to address this (and I think I've been one of the more active posters, to be honest). My last post was 352. I was out last night (and I didn't think the game started until 10 anyway), and am posting when I get to a computer in the morning. You can expect to see me posting with the same frequency today as I have the rest of the game.

I also think Timbo is a reasonable guess at scum, and that might be a good call. I feel that his playing style has changed dramatically from the previous game, which I feel is a pretty big tell. I posted this earlier:

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I think consistency of behaviour is key in a game where people switch sides.

Timbo has been the least consistent from the previous game. His posting style was previously aggressive and tenacious (that's how he got daykilled by the vig). Now its been more of a follower, and fairly passive about it as well, especially on the ActiveStick vote. It seems scummy to me to pile on a vote to get momentum after a few people have voted with actual reasons.

I'm not ready to vote yet, as I want to re-read the oling/girly stuff and evaluate that as well.