CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Timbo]

So am I the only one suspicious that Oling proposed this strategy (in post #8) and it just so happens that he is the one holding the spore from the start?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Timbo

So am I the only one suspicious that Oling proposed this strategy (in post #8) and it just so happens that he is the one holding the spore from the start?

Well he was on the list of people you and I said we would send the spore to, does that mean one of us sent it to him and are the captain?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

I'm all for not worrying about the infected generally, but this one fell in our lap.

The more infected means the easier for the hosts to influence the vote. I think when we are gifted a chance to take one out we should take it.

But just let the agent take care of it. We get a 3/15 chance of killing aliens.

In exchange there is a 11/28 chance of someone being converted vs the spore going back to the captain and the next day them going after one of our top guys.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Well he was on the list of people you and I said we would send the spore to, does that mean one of us sent it to him and are the captain?

Agreed but the convenience of the plan makes me suspicious. Host pass to host night 0 is not out of the realm of possibilities IMO. After getting gut punched by him (and you) in the last game I'm seeing the evil Moriarty everywhere.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

So am I the only one suspicious that Oling proposed this strategy (in post #8) and it just so happens that he is the one holding the spore from the start?

It is convenient Timbo, there's not much I could do when Mazrim told me I had the spore though. A GirlySports reveal of town would put a big target on my back though, just as I think a host (not necessarily turned) reveal would put a big target on your back.

GGG, you're not really wrong with what you're saying but if we lynch GirlySports, I know that the spore is gone tonight and that gives us Day 3 to target the host exclusively as at least I know there would be only 3 hosts and no turned. Leaving her could mean as many as 5 scum are voting tomorrow. If you're assuming I'm telling the truth, I gave GirlySports the spore thinking there was a possibility that she was host as well so lynching her would not be just to get rid of the spore/turned, it was because I thought she might be host (and I thought others agreed based on the vote).

The flip side is that I'm lying about everything (especially where the spore was sent)in which case it's likely because I'm host and not turned. So from a town perspective, I think the best choices are me or Girlysports. If there's better host target though, I'm certainly all-ears but I'm not sure there is.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Agreed but the convenience of the plan makes me suspicious. Host pass to host night 0 is not out of the realm of possibilities IMO. After getting gut punched by him (and you) in the last game I'm seeing the evil Moriarty everywhere.

Well it isn't impossible but I don't think it's likely. I'll keep it in mind just in case.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by GGG

But just let the agent take care of it. We get a 3/15 chance of killing aliens.

In exchange there is a 11/28 chance of someone being converted vs the spore going back to the captain and the next day them going after one of our top guys.

But as Seb pointed out its possible to lose the agent without even knowing it. It also takes a day for the spore to go back to the captain because he has no infected to kill so he can get the spore back. That means a night and day of no spore issues.

[GGG]

How do we get to 5? Unless Girly is the agent the worst is 4. I don't see girly's behaviour as being a power role.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GGG

How do we get to 5? Unless Girly is the agent the worst is 4. I don't see girly's behaviour as being a power role.

3 Scum, GirlySports turned and who she sends the spore to.

It would require either the Government Agent being GirlySports or the Government Agent checking her over me.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

It would require either the Government Agent being GirlySports or the Government Agent checking checking me over her.

Fixed.

[Hockeyguy15]

Also GGG Maz said that the spore is still passed to the target if the agent kills someone, so if we let the agent kill Girly she stil gets to pass the spore to anyone of her choosing.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

But as Seb pointed out its possible to lose the agent without even knowing it. It also takes a day for the spore to go back to the captain because he has no infected to kill so he can get the spore back. That means a night and day of no spore issues.

Unless girly is the agent that wouldn't occur tonight.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

It makes some sense. Scum 1 passes it to scum 2 on night zero
Introduce the plan that oling proposed. Point the finger to a player that does not have the spore.
non spore holder gets killed
spore is still out there with a 50/50 chance of infection.
Players don't know anything is wrong until day 3

Okay Timbo, if you're assuming I'm host. Why would you assume the host sent it to each other? It's a terrible idea.

The much more logical conclusion would be that someone turned on Night 0/Day 1 as that would leave the host (in your scenario, me) free range to say whatever I want without having the real spore-holder reveal. It wouldn't require the scum to send it to each other. Pretty flawed logic...

[GGG]

How sure are we Girly is turned 80/20?

[Timbo]

Unfortunately I seem to follow the logic of lynching Girly as much as I try to see GGG's idea.
If we don't lynch Girly we might loose the spore. If we do lynch her we still risk losing the spore on the next day if the next recipient gets turned.
But lynching Girly gives us another day in which we can hunt for hosts.
Im am open to other options but right now I cant see any

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Timbo

Unfortunately I seem to follow the logic of lynching Girly as much as I try to see GGG's idea.
If we don't lynch Girly we might loose the spore. If we do lynch her we still risk losing the spore on the next day if the next recipient gets turned.
But lynching Girly gives us another day in which we can hunt for hosts.
Im am open to other options but right now I cant see any

You guys are assuming that girly is 100% turned. We need to price that risk in. As a general strategy lynching whoever gets the spore is a bad idea.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

Okay Timbo, if you're assuming I'm host. Why would you assume the host sent it to each other? It's a terrible idea.

The much more logical conclusion would be that someone turned on Night 0/Day 1 as that would leave the host (in your scenario, me) free range to say whatever I want without having the real spore-holder reveal. It wouldn't require the scum to send it to each other. Pretty flawed logic...

The benefit is that the host earns trust as an unturned passenger.
Even if Girly was turned she still cannot ID you as a host even as you sacrificed her as a pawn.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Timbo

It makes some sense. Scum 1 passes it to scum 2 on night zero

Originally Posted by Timbo

The benefit is that the host earns trust as an unturned passenger.
Even if Girly was turned she still cannot ID you as a host even as you sacrificed her as a pawn.

Sorry if I'm misreading you.

But in your scenario here, are you suggesting that the captain sent it to me (his host buddy) and I sent it to GirlySports and I am now sacrificing her (with the spore tonight), knowing she is turned, to get credit?

That would leave the host with 0 turned and no spore...I think town could only pray that the host is that incompetent.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by GGG

You guys are assuming that girly is 100% turned. We need to price that risk in. As a general strategy lynching whoever gets the spore is a bad idea.

No I'm not assuming she is turned.
In the beginning of the game it gives us an extra day to hunt a host albeit with a 50/50 chance we lose a passenger.

The fact of us loosing the spore at some time in this game is inevitable correct?
At this point in the game we can give ourselves one more day to hunt albeit with a price.
We might not get this opportunity for a couple of days if the coin flips go against us.
If we don't lynch Girly she will pass on the spore that is a given.

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Timbo

No I'm not assuming she is turned.
In the beginning of the game it gives us an extra day to hunt a host albeit with a 50/50 chance we lose a passenger.

The fact of us loosing the spore at some time in this game is inevitable correct?
At this point in the game we can give ourselves one more day to hunt albeit with a price.
We might not get this opportunity for a couple of days if the coin flips go against us.
If we don't lynch Girly she will pass on the spore that is a given.

Sorry for the bold I meant for Itallic and Underline