CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[devo22]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

I would have wanted to go with Oling or GGG first, but I don't think I would have gone through with it. I think it would have been way too predictable by me and would have shed some heat on me early. If I was the captain I'd rather they were turned later than earlier, to establish their posting pattern. If I was the captain I'd have likely started with a first timer. I'm guessing they wouldn't handle it as well as an experienced player would if they found out they were infected.

But wouldn't the captain want the infected player to "handle it well"? What would the captain gain if the first turned player can't handle the situation?

[mrkajz44]

The benefit I could see for targeting a new player is there is no history to base any sort of "behaviour" change. With so little to go on early, people are tending to fall back on posting styles of past games as the first form of analysis. If you sent the spore to a new player and they ended up infected, then it would be impossible to spot a style change as there is just no history of previous posting styles.

I'm not voting active stick because with 4 votes, it could have been 3 scum with the person that was possibly turned. Then they just try to get 2 more people to jump the bandwagon because it's gaining momentum and people don't want to be the the one that was singled out "You didn't vote with the group!" The scum can start that mob mentality and get people to follow where ever they want.
With so little posting I can't read enough into 4-25ish posts (some posts being cut up into 3 separate posts)
I would rather keep a strong player vs a weak player at the beginning. That way they can help us out when we get more info from some more thoughtful posts. And a weak person isn't going to help us anyways. I'm going with inactivity and lack of posts contributing to the game.
Vote: Lego Man
4 posts in 5 days is unacceptable.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by devo22

But wouldn't the captain want the infected player to "handle it well"? What would the captain gain if the first turned player can't handle the situation?

If the infected person lets everyone know that he/she has it, we all vote for him/her. We are then voting a confirmed townie. This is bad for everyone. This was discussed a lot on the 21st. I thought most agreed not to reveal on day 1, as this would likely Girly and Oling had a good discussion here:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...9&postcount=85
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...3&postcount=89

[Mazrim]

Vote Count:

With 17 alive, it takes 9 votes on any one player to hammer. It takes 6 votes to deadline lynch.

Hasn’t Voted (3): activeStick, SebC, devo22

Voted:

activeStick (4): squiggs96, bizaro86, Hockeyguy15, Timbo
Party Elephant (2): GirlySports, mrkajz44
GirlySports (2): Lego Man, Party Elephant
SebC (1): East Coast Flame
East Coast Flame (1): Peanut
Timbo (1): Oling_Roachinen
mrkajz44 (1): GGG
Hockeyguy15 (1): dissentowner
Lego Man (1): Puxlut

The deadline is Tuesday, May 26th at 10:00 PM.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

If the infected person lets everyone know that he/she has it, we all vote for him/her. We are then voting a confirmed townie. This is bad for everyone. This was discussed a lot on the 21st. I thought most agreed not to reveal on day 1, as this would likely Girly and Oling had a good discussion here:

http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...9&postcount=85
http://forum.calgarypuck.com/showpos...3&postcount=89

Yup. I think it's pointless to lynch one of the turned because our goal is the lynch the three hosts. Let the agent find and kill the turned.

[GGG]

My thoughts on Active,

His posting style in previous games has been to lurk. So in his case a lack of posting is not indicitive of allignment.

I do find his wanting to be careful and his wanting to decide things as a group suspicious as both of these things avoid responsibility. Not my favourite for lynching today. I still perfer MrKajz and Party but would be will to move to assure a lynch at the deadline.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by GGG

My thoughts on Active,

His posting style in previous games has been to lurk. So in his case a lack of posting is not indicitive of allignment.

Yeah but what would be your strategy if you had played town a couple times and then drew the mafia card for the first time? I'd do exactly what I did previously in that case. People get suspiscious of changes in posting style all the time, so his best bet to fly under the radar would be to emulate his previous behaviour.

Of course he could easily be town too. In either case, he's not contributing a lot.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by activeStick

It's a tad early to have any sort of read on people with any kind of accuracy in my opinion.

Some players come out guns blazing with crazy analysis that in past games have proven to be incorrect, ruining the game for the Town.

I think it's good to discuss theories, etc. but we need to be careful to not take these theories as truth yet... It's Day 1 lol.

I do think there may be something to super active posters right off the hop being scum so they can be safe when the eventual lynching of low activity players is chosen as the way to lynch the first few players. When people on this bus lynch a town member, they fall back to "oh well he/she wasn't active anyway" and all is forgiven, scum blends in and we move along.

As far as I can tell this is activeStick's reaction to having the votes against him. Most people will give an excuse for their inactivity, he doesn't even really address his inactivity.

This reads to me like a very general comment to not really stand out, but to kind of deflect the attention. Followed up with more general questions to up the posting numbers.

It's almost like he saw he had 2 votes and thought "if people see my name a couple times maybe they will unvote me."

Also when have any games been ruined for the town? The town lost the last game and that was it, and I don't think the game was lost because of 'crazy analysis' from the town.

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Also when have any games been ruined for the town? The town lost the last game and that was it, and I don't think the game was lost because of 'crazy analysis' from the town.

Although this is not the place to discuss it, I will vehemently disagree with you here. I'm not taking away from how well the mafia played the game, and they definitely deserved to win, but there were a few strongly worded tangents by townfolk that convinced other townfolk to vote out their own. Perhaps one day, in another thread or in PMs we can chat about my still bitter feelings.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Although this is not the place to discuss it, I will vehemently disagree with you here. I'm not taking away from how well the mafia played the game, and they definitely deserved to win, but there were a few strongly worded tangents by townfolk that convinced other townfolk to vote out their own. Perhaps one day, in another thread or in PMs we can chat about my still bitter feelings.

Fair enough. It just seems like a fear mongering comment to me, "we lost last game because people had theories that were wrong, so we better ignore all the theories this time so we don't lose!"

[activeStick]

I post questions because I legitimately have them. The way I post (non-accusatory) aligns with what I've been saying, which is that we don't have very much to go on. If you look at my past game here, I started the same way and posted more as the game went on because there was much more to talk about.

I think I'll put in my vote now and it's because of the abrupt nature of the pile up that happened earlier.

Vote Girlysports

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

Fair enough. It just seems like a fear mongering comment to me, "we lost last game because people had theories that were wrong, so we better ignore all the theories this time so we don't lose!"

Agreed. It's also hard to take any comment seriously when it's ended with "lol".

I'm glad there is more discussion being had today. Some of it is likely that we have a deadline today, but hopefully the pace picks up and continues on throughout the game. As many have stated, with minimal talk it benefits the scum. We haven't heard from Peanut or Party Elephant today. Others have posted today for attendance purposes.

I'm going to keep my vote on activeStick. Yes, when I first voted it was a flippant vote to generate discussion. As of now I don't see any better candidates and I'd love to be right and pick off a host right away.

[Party Elephant]

Good morning mafia folks! Squiggs, you have yet to hear from me because it's not quite 8 in the morning here. Analysis post to follow.

C'mon Peanut! Don't give us girls a bad name. (Unless you're scum... Then just keep up being shady)

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by SebC

Jokes about being scum make it harder to nail actual slip-ups. It's noise.

Duly noted.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

So today would be a really good day for some of you to start being a little more active, since we have the lynch deadline.

Since there isn't a lot of input going on I've been thinking that more than likely the hosts are sitting in their thread and talking, then here and there they will post in this thread. A passenger would be more likely to post here, hang out for a bit and possibly post again, since they don't have to conspire with 2 other people. If my theory is correct that would mean people with more sustained posts rather than one and done would more likely be town.

devo22 - has 2 posts 4 mins apart, but it was to add to his previous post, not replying to anyone else

Timbo - had a bit of a chunk of posts at the start but mostly is a one and done kind of poster

bizaro86 - one of the more sustained posters

squiggs96 - 2 posts close together, one was when he voted and then another post after that asking a question.

Puxlut - most sustained posts were when she was talking to Diss about his avatar.

GGG - This one was a bit of a surprise since he is more of a one and done poster. His shortest post period was questioning squiggs on his post about if it was a scum slip up.

Peanut - Had 2 posts a few minutes apart, but it's a small body of work.

activeStick - Had sustained posting asking about voting last night. Other than that not many posts.

Party Elephant - One and done.

SebC - Had a chunk of 4 posts in about 20 minutes replying to different people.

Lego Man - 3 one and done posts.

mrkajz44 - At the start there was 3 posts discussing the game, then later another 2 talking about Diss.

East Coast Flame - A couple sustained times, but there was a lot of question asking which sometimes is a scum tool.

Hockeyguy15 - Didn't look, you can do your own leg work here.

GirlySports - Possibly 1 sustained period at the start, then turns to one and done.

Oling_Roachinen - one of the more sustained posters.

dissentowner - not really sustained, closest posts were to say he would post more after work and to reply to a question about his avatar.

I feel like I'm beating a dead horse here. My posts are usually "one and done" because if I get home from work and post at 6pm, it's midnight in Calgary and there's no one to reply. Most of the activity has been taking place while I'm either asleep or at work. I guess I could leave a string of posts in a row like some others are doing?

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I completely agree with this. We need more posts that are thoughtful analysis. Sarcasm isn't a useful tool here, it distracts from what you're actually trying to say.

Yes, got it. You'll be seeing a more serious Elephant from here on out.

Originally Posted by squiggs96

If you think GGG is scum, keep the vote there. Your scum buddies may have advised you to switch your vote, but you still voted for someone who voted for you. That's your second revenge vote. If this vote is strategic, what are your reasons for it?

No one else is voting for GGG so it would be futile trying to lynch him this round. GirlySports has a few more votes so I'd rather contribute to a potential lynch than just have a throwaway vote. There's not a lot to go on here, other than that the snap vote against me was pretty quick, almost like she was waiting for someone to jump on. Could be a scum tactic.

Originally Posted by Puxlut

I'm not voting active stick because with 4 votes, it could have been 3 scum with the person that was possibly turned. Then they just try to get 2 more people to jump the bandwagon because it's gaining momentum and people don't want to be the the one that was singled out "You didn't vote with the group!" The scum can start that mob mentality and get people to follow where ever they want.

This is interesting. Don't want to get swallowed up in the momentum too easily for this reason.

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

I feel like I'm beating a dead horse here. My posts are usually "one and done" because if I get home from work and post at 6pm, it's midnight in Calgary and there's no one to reply. Most of the activity has been taking place while I'm either asleep or at work. I guess I could leave a string of posts in a row like some others are doing?

I get the time difference thing, but here is an example of your body of work. Regardless of the time difference it's not like you are really replying with anything of importance.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Never tell me the odds!

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Clearly noob scum.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Lego Man sure did.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

This post reeks of confirmation bias.

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

Good morning mafia folks! Squiggs, you have yet to hear from me because it's not quite 8 in the morning here. Analysis post to follow.

Stuff happens during the day that you could comment on and reply to regardless of your time zone, it would just be delayed is all. Your views on people/theories are still valid and important even if they are later than ours.

[mrkajz44]

So I completely missed the fact that Party is, in fact, in NZ and therefore their odd posting schedule might be completely due to the time difference.

I looked back on when they tended to respond and it seemed to line up with the NZ time zone rather well. Therefore, my earlier conclusion that they were lurking and only responding in the thread when their name came up is pretty much shot; it was all just a coincidence. That was the main reason I had a hunch on them, so I don't feel right keeping the vote on them.

unvote

Since we are so close to deadline though, I don't want to leave a vote off. I'm sort of neutral on Active right now, I can't really seem to read his play. When looking at Girly though, I see a lot of straight up "fact" posts, where she is just clarifying the rules of the game more-so than anything. She also seems to be the person most pre-occupied with the spore and Day 2 strategy already. We are already in a bit of a bind with not enough votes to lynch anyone at deadline, yet she seems more concerned with how voting might go on Day 2, and what might happen with the spore. It rubs me the wrong way as if she is trying to lay some groundwork for tomorrow already (already knows what happened with the spore? already knows her mafia buddies are safe? I don't know for sure, but these are the thoughts I'm having)

Vote: GirlySports

[SebC]

I don't think looking forward to Day 2 is inherently suspicious. On Day 2 we'll have actual info. Heck, it might not be a bad idea to have a "town plan" for who to pass the spore to if it's received tonight, given that it would pretty much be a death sentence for that person. Forethought is a good thing.

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by SebC

I don't think looking forward to Day 2 is inherently suspicious. On Day 2 we'll have actual info. Heck, it might not be a bad idea to have a "town plan" for who to pass the spore to if it's received tonight, given that it would pretty much be a death sentence for that person. Forethought is a good thing.

You planning on voting today?