Flames Salary Cap Case Study

[Incogneto]

I had some free times on my hands last night, so I decided to play around with some cap projections moving forward. I have projected out to the '17-'18 season.

Here is the read-only link to the Google Document:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Some notes about this:
- There is a tab for each season.
- I decided to increase the Salary Cap by 5% on a yearly basis. That seems to be on the low side, so know that this could easily be higher.
- To make a case study like this, you have to make a TON of assumptions. All assumed salary numbers are in green. Please discuss if you think I high/low balled some salaries.
- I have only used players that are currently in the system. Therefore, trades and signings are not part of this.
- I have noted the players that fall off of the roster on the right hand side of the season worksheet.
- Next season, if we make no trades or FA signings, and assuming all RFAs are qualified, we have 16 NHL calibre forwards.

One of my pet projects with this case study was to see if we could somehow trade for Brent Seabrook, and sign him to a 3-5 year extension. You can see with this, there is PLENTY of room for a player like this.

I'd love to hear your comments about this. Please share, and I can manipulate the data as decided by the group.

[FBI]

Lots of assumptions but from your sheet looks like plenty of room.. Not sure about losing Russell.. Might want to keep that guy around.

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by FBI

Lots of assumptions but from your sheet looks like plenty of room.. Not sure about losing Russell.. Might want to keep that guy around.

Yeah, that was a tough one...and I probably agree with you. Maybe I will make that change back. I think it was partially because I have no idea what a new contract for him would look like.

I can also send the spreadsheet to people, should they want to play around with their own numbers. Lemme know.

[Macho0978]

Gio - 7 years $6.75 front loaded contract
Russell - 5 years $5.25
Monahan - 3 years $4.5 million bridge contract
Gaudreay - 2 years $4.5 million bridge contract

Also some assumptions but I think this should be the approach the Flames shoudl take on Monahan and Gaudreau and about the contract considering what Ryan Johansen got

I also think you should lower the cap to $71.5 for next season

I think your contracts your adding are pretty close as well

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

I had some free times on my hands last night, so I decided to play around with some cap projections moving forward. I have projected out to the '17-'18 season.

Here is the read-only link to the Google Document:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Some notes about this:
- There is a tab for each season.
- I decided to increase the Salary Cap by 5% on a yearly basis. That seems to be on the low side, so know that this could easily be higher.
- To make a case study like this, you have to make a TON of assumptions. All assumed salary numbers are in green. Please discuss if you think I high/low balled some salaries.
- I have only used players that are currently in the system. Therefore, trades and signings are not part of this.
- I have noted the players that fall off of the roster on the right hand side of the season worksheet.
- Next season, if we make no trades or FA signings, and assuming all RFAs are qualified, we have 16 NHL calibre forwards.

One of my pet projects with this case study was to see if we could somehow trade for Brent Seabrook, and sign him to a 3-5 year extension. You can see with this, there is PLENTY of room for a player like this.

I'd love to hear your comments about this. Please share, and I can manipulate the data as decided by the group.

Or maybe an offer sheet to Hamilton?

[burnitdown]

Not so sure I like the logic of giving Gaudreau and Monahan $6M/3 year contracts. Based off length, they are almost bridge contracts...yet you're paying them as if they signed on long-term. If they play well then we'll be having to pay them even more as they'll hold all the power being so close to UFA but if they don't continue to develop a lot each year, then we'll have to qualify them at $6M to keep their RFA rights, when they may not be producing at that level.

I'd prefer going a true short-term bridge contract (2 year/$4.5M) or a long-term deal (6 year/$6M).

Same deal with Bennett, where you have a 3 year $6.5M deal.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Gio - 7 years $6.75 front loaded contract
Russell - 5 years $5.25
Monahan - 3 years $4.5 million bridge contract
Gaudreay - 2 years $4.5 million bridge contract

Also some assumptions but I think this should be the approach the Flames shoudl take on Monahan and Gaudreau and about the contract considering what Ryan Johansen got

I also think you should lower the cap to $71.5 for next season

I think your contracts your adding are pretty close as well

No way Russell is worth $5.25 right now. I think he maxes out at $4M

I have been wondering if we go bridge or long term with Monny and Johnny. Will be interesting. In one case you sign them to 2-3 year deals at $4-5M and then you may need to go $8M+ for 8 years but you have the control for 10-11 years. You could also go $6-$7M for 8 years right away and buy a couple UFA years and then they go UFA at 28/29 where they still command long term top dollars.

I have a feeling that Johnny will eventually want to go play somewhere in the NEUS (Rangers, Bruins, Flyers)

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

No way Russell is worth $5.25 right now. I think he maxes out at $4M

I have been wondering if we go bridge or long term with Monny and Johnny. Will be interesting. In one case you sign them to 2-3 year deals at $4-5M and then you may need to go $8M+ for 8 years but you have the control for 10-11 years. You could also go $6-$7M for 8 years right away and buy a couple UFA years and then they go UFA at 28/29 where they still command long term top dollars.

I have a feeling that Johnny will eventually want to go play somewhere in the NEUS (Rangers, Bruins, Flyers)

I orginally had Russell typed out at $4.75. I doubt we can keep him at 4. I think his play this year gets him at minimum $4.5. $4 is a possibility if he gives us a discount

I think we should go the bridge route for sure with Monahan and Gaudreau (and Bennett after that). Especially if we think signing Gio is a must. I think smaller cap hits gives us the next 4 years to go for a cup. Then when Monahan and Gaudreau get big money later we may have to have a mini rebuild the first couple years of the new contracts unless are farm system continues to be deep

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Or maybe an offer sheet to Hamilton?

Do we do this at the $7.3M per year level, meaning a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd as compensation?

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Russell - 5 years $5.25

Originally Posted by Vinny01

No way Russell is worth $5.25 right now. I think he maxes out at $4M

This was my issue with Russell. I just don't know what his value is going to be in a years time.

[Robbob]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

Do we do this at the $7.3M per year level, meaning a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd as compensation?

Completely worth it IMO.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

Do we do this at the $7.3M per year level, meaning a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd as compensation?

It would likely be longer than 5 years, so would be 4 1sts

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by InCoGnEtO

Do we do this at the $7.3M per year level, meaning a 1st, 2nd, and a 3rd as compensation?

I think it is safe to say that the flames will be drafting in the 15+ range next year. Hamilton was a 9th overall pick, has good size and has proven himself. I feel there is a tiny chance at finding a 1st 2nd or 3rd who is better than him at any point throughout their careers. We also have a pretty full cupboard of prospects and don't want to lose too many when their contracts are up to go somewhere with a better chance.
My only concern would be term.... throw the 7.3 at him for 2 years or hit the 6 million mark with a 5 year deal.

Edit: didnt know what pharmacist posted above where term relates to compensation.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I think it is safe to say that the flames will be drafting in the 15+ range next year. Hamilton was a 9th overall pick, has good size and has proven himself. I feel there is a tiny chance at finding a 1st 2nd or 3rd who is better than him at any point throughout their careers. We also have a pretty full cupboard of prospects and don't want to lose too many when their contracts are up to go somewhere with a better chance.
My only concern would be term.... throw the 7.3 at him for 2 years or hit the 6 million mark with a 5 year deal.

Edit: didnt know what pharmacist posted above where term relates to compensation.

$6x5 years would likely be matched by Boston, and no way he signs a 2 year deal. In fact, the 5 year deal could be what he gets without an offer sheet.

It would take at least 6 and would likely need to be 7 years. That makes it 4 1sts in compensation

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I think it is safe to say that the flames will be drafting in the 15+ range next year.

I don't think it's safe to say that at all. In fact I think it's very unsafe to say that.

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

My only concern would be term.... throw the 7.3 at him for 2 years or hit the 6 million mark with a 5 year deal.

I think you'd have to throw 7.3 for more years (after Boston has committed some money to other people) and give him as much money as you can in form of signing bonuses towards the end... then you might get a situation where Boston can't/won't match.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I don't think it's safe to say that at all. In fact I think it's very unsafe to say that.

Totally agree. I think we can make the playoffs, but in no way is it any kind of certainty. Not sure how you can assume the 16th place team is a lock the next year.

I think you'd have to throw 7.3 for more years (after Boston has committed some money to other people) and give him as much money as you can in form of signing bonuses towards the end... then you might get a situation where Boston can't/won't match.

Exactly, which means it's gonna be four 1st round picks. That's a terribly high price for a guy who should become an elite defender

[Robbob]

If you off him 7.3 x 5yrs it would still be the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd would it not?

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Robbob

If you off him 7.3 x 5yrs it would still be the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd would it not?

It would but I think it gets matched easy. They'll just ship off Chara, Lucic and/or Erikkson to make it happen.

I think if you really want to get him, we're talking about $9.2M AAV, 6 years or so... two 1st, a 2nd and a 3rd. Still might be worth it. (On that note, I could see Chara or Eriksson going for cheap, like a 2nd rounder or tier 2 prospect before July 1 so that if there is a OS they can match)