CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

Because it grows into this:

[SebC]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

There are only 3 hosts to be worried about, I'm not that concerned about the possible 1 infected yet. I think we should put the infected talk/planning on the back burner for now since there is 1 at the most currently. Losing because we all become infected would be death by 1000 cuts, we need to focus on taking out the hosts.

Right now the question is would one of the 3 hosts be trying to lead the charge out of the gate? I'm thinking that MAYBE 1 would be super active (probably not the captain) and the other 2 might be looking to stay in the bush and blend in.

If we can keep the infected at zero, we halve the night kills. That's huge. If even one slips through (something for which there's a 50/50 shot right now, unfortunately), the game gets much harder. This is, absolutely, something that needs to be a focus.

Sure, it's day one, and we have nothing to go on. But we don't really have anything to go on for hunting scum either.

Mitigate the spore, and we'll get a lot of data. Play the odds until scum screws up. Then hammer.

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

After Mazrim posts the explanation the only people who posted who didn't thank it were Lego, Timbo, Squiggs and the Elephant. This one is probably nothing but I thought I would note it anyway.

Just to nip this at the bud, you missed someone.

I could say more about both of these things, but I feel like that would be adding to the noise. But some of you may be able to extrapolate what I'm theorizing, and the odds are you're on my team.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

Alright all you vanilla beans.

Since this is already out in the open, I'll point out that I read this as an alignment hint as well. Those of you in other games - is this something squiggs96 should have been expected to know is a bad idea?

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by SebC

If we can keep the infected at zero, we halve the night kills.

Can you expand on this...I didn't think there were any night kills?

[East Coast Flame]

Originally Posted by SebC

Since this is already out in the open, I'll point out that I read this as an alignment hint as well. Those of you in other games - is this something squiggs96 should have been expected to know is a bad idea?

Remembering last game, Squiggs went really hard on saying he is town - much harder than anyone else.

He ended up being town - so take from that what you will

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Can you expand on this...I didn't think there were any night kills?

"If the holder of the spore is killed, it will return to the Captain, but he must kill a turned player for this to happen. Otherwise he must wait a full day to regain the spore."
Is this what would happen for a night kill?

[SebC]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Can you expand on this...I didn't think there were any night kills?

I'm using generic terminology. Spore conversion = night kill, basically. We lose a townie. Actually worse in that mafia gains a member, but 50/50ish chance of success offsets that.

[SebC]

Should have taken my own advice and laid low. I'm creating more noise than I would like.

[East Coast Flame]

Wouldn't our best bet at stopping the spore be waiting until someone confirms they weren't infected by the spore and then they tell us who they passed it on to?

I understand Girly not wanting it to get back to the captain, but then they would either have to kill an infected or waste a day...either would be a win for the town

[squiggs96]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Remembering last game, Squiggs went really hard on saying he is town - much harder than anyone else.

He ended up being town - so take from that what you will

It's a very elaborate, long term plan. I'll play 4-5 mafia games over the next 4-5 years, all as town. Then one game, likely in the year 2020, I'll draw the mafia card. I'll be able to play exactly the same, leading to a scum win. People will say, "We should have seen that coming". I'll respond with, "Hindsight is always 2020". Yeeeeeeeeaaahhhhhh!

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by squiggs96

It's a very elaborate, long term plan. I'll play 4-5 mafia games over the next 4-5 years, all as town. Then one game, likely in the year 2020, I'll draw the mafia card. I'll be able to play exactly the same, leading to a scum win. People will say, "We should have seen that coming". I'll respond with, "Hindsight is always 2020". Yeeeeeeeeaaahhhhhh!

Nah. You'll get voted out early because someone will be jealous you're in Hawaii or golfing, while the rest of us are pegged to our desks in the middle of winter. I'm expecting 2020 to be a cold one...

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Wouldn't our best bet at stopping the spore be waiting until someone confirms they weren't infected by the spore and then they tell us who they passed it on to?

I understand Girly not wanting it to get back to the captain, but then they would either have to kill an infected or waste a day...either would be a win for the town

I think I agree with this. The first couple nights are a true crap shoot and we're guessing with odds against us. If we wait until night and we're lucky, the person didn't turn and they can share who they passed it to. Then we know that the first carrier is town and go that way?

[Hockeyguy15]

Originally Posted by SebC

If we can keep the infected at zero, we halve the night kills. That's huge. If even one slips through (something for which there's a 50/50 shot right now, unfortunately), the game gets much harder. This is, absolutely, something that needs to be a focus.

Sure, it's day one, and we have nothing to go on. But we don't really have anything to go on for hunting scum either.

Mitigate the spore, and we'll get a lot of data. Play the odds until scum screws up. Then hammer.

Just to nip this at the bud, you missed someone.

I could say more about both of these things, but I feel like that would be adding to the noise. But some of you may be able to extrapolate what I'm theorizing, and the odds are you're on my team.

At this point we have 0 chance of dealing with the spore, since we don't know who has it. Until we know where the spore went we can do nothing about it. Even when someone says where the spore passed how are we sure that person is a passenger? The government agent cannot detect hosts, only infected. If someone turns passenger after being investigated that only means they are not infected, it doesn't mean they are a passenger for sure.

And you are wrong about we have nothing to go on for hunting scum. We should be looking for oddities in posts and exploring them. The hosts can communicate outside this thread so they have the advantage, but that also usually means there can be some slip ups as they are trying to co-ordinate their plan as well as trying to play it correct in this thread.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by East Coast Flame

Wouldn't our best bet at stopping the spore be waiting until someone confirms they weren't infected by the spore and then they tell us who they passed it on to?

I understand Girly not wanting it to get back to the captain, but then they would either have to kill an infected or waste a day...either would be a win for the town

The upside of having it not go to the captain being a low percentage chance that we pass it to scum and thus they waste a day? Something that is pretty much guaranteed if we lynch the recipient?

Do we want a boat or the mystery box? The mystery box could even be a boat!

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by SebC

The upside of having it not go to the captain being a low percentage chance that we pass it to scum and thus they waste a day? Something that is pretty much guaranteed if we lynch the recipient?

Do we want a boat or the mystery box? The mystery box could even be a boat!

I like this idea. I've been subscribing to your idea of not making too much chatter in order to make the hosts' directing more obvious.

For the record, I haven't posted much since I'm new to mafia and in a way different time zone than most of you, but I guess that hasn't stopped me from being a suspect.

It's all moot anyway since the space army is going to nuke our ship when they find it rather than risk contamination!

[GGG]

Originally Posted by SebC

Since this is already out in the open, I'll point out that I read this as an alignment hint as well. Those of you in other games - is this something squiggs96 should have been expected to know is a bad idea?

Squiggs was this an intentional breadcrumb in your first post? And if so why?

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by SebC

The upside of having it not go to the captain being a low percentage chance that we pass it to scum and thus they waste a day? Something that is pretty much guaranteed if we lynch the recipient?

Do we want a boat or the mystery box? The mystery box could even be a boat!

not only pass it to scum but maybe pass it to the anomaly or hidden or agent (2 rolls) so that's 6 people the spore can safely land on. And even if it lands on the 10 other people, it's 50/50.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

not only pass it to scum but maybe pass it to the anomaly or hidden or agent (2 rolls) so that's 6 people the spore can safely land on. And even if it lands on the 10 other people, it's 50/50.

The anomaly is only protected once, so landing on him is still bad.

Losing the agent, while only 25%, could be catastrophic.

And the smuggler, with random chance, has equal chance of hiding the person as he would hiding the passer:

player can only hide once, however. If the smuggler hides the person passing the spore, the smuggler will take the spore

I would not consider any of those 'safe.'

So the best case scenario is giving it to Scum...which still gives them the control that you want to avoid.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

The anomaly is only protected once, so landing on him is still bad.

Losing the agent, while only 25%, could be catastrophic.

And the smuggler, with random chance, has equal chance of hiding the person as he would hiding the passer:

I would not consider any of those 'safe.'

So the best case scenario is giving it to Scum...which still gives them the control that you want to avoid.

I don't think giving it to the scum is a huge issue. They get to pick then, but it's not like they'd know who had the special powers anyway. That seems like a pretty good trade for having a night where we have a guarantee that no one gets turned, which is what happens if you send the spore to a scum/already turned player.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by Oling_Roachinen

The anomaly is only protected once, so landing on him is still bad.

Losing the agent, while only 25%, could be catastrophic.

And the smuggler, with random chance, has equal chance of hiding the person as he would hiding the passer:

I would not consider any of those 'safe.'

So the best case scenario is giving it to Scum...which still gives them the control that you want to avoid.

Anomaly getting it once gives us an extra day.

It's still safer than lynching the target and having the scum 100% have the spore.