Calgary residential construction

[bysutter]

Don't know what is going on in the other major centers in Alberta but residential construction in YYC has gone off a cliff. The numbers are scary to say the least.

[tenyardrambo]

What do you mean gone off a cliff?

[Ace]

http://calgaryherald.com/business/re..._lsa=4d33-9d8c

^here's the April stats, not surprisingly down; but the caveat being year over year numbers are comparing against record high starts.

Would be interesting how they compare to 2008 or 2009

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by tenyardrambo

What do you mean gone off a cliff?

Regardless of what the media "spin" is.....the facts are this - most large new home builders numbers are in absolute freefall. Sales are down 85% on average 1st 1/4 of this year vs 1st 1/4 of last year.

I work with a large builder and these numbers are factual....off a cliff.

[tenyardrambo]

Originally Posted by bysutter

Regardless of what the media "spin" is.....the facts are this - most large new home builders numbers are in absolute freefall. Sales are down 85% on average 1st 1/4 of this year vs 1st 1/4 of last year.

I work with a large builder and these numbers are factual....off a cliff.

Thanks for the clarification.
I am wondering if renovation jobs are picking up the slack?

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by tenyardrambo

Thanks for the clarification.
I am wondering if renovation jobs are picking up the slack?

No idea but there is no way that the reno market will support the to date and upcoming job losses in new resi construction.

The builder I work with was selling approx. 30 to 35 homes per month city wide and they are currently averaging 5 per month.

Calgary is in for a rough ride and the election could not have happened at a worse time.

Truly, Prentice is an idiot.

[topfiverecords]

Maybe quality can finally increase.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by bysutter

No idea but there is no way that the reno market will support the to date and upcoming job losses in new resi construction.

The builder I work with was selling approx. 30 to 35 homes per month city wide and they are currently averaging 5 per month.

Calgary is in for a rough ride and the election could not have happened at a worse time.

Truly, Prentice is an idiot.

We're you working with Cardel?

If so, there's probably a pretty good reason why they aren't selling any homes.

[Hugh Jahrmes]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Maybe quality can finally increase.

But profits ?

[Ryan Coke]

I had heard last summer that they were going to drop substantially, but due to limited land availability. Not because of the economy at that point.

Either way it means less work, but the cause is different. The city has not kept up with serviced lots.

[SeeGeeWhy]

Originally Posted by Ace

http://calgaryherald.com/business/re..._lsa=4d33-9d8c

^here's the April stats, not surprisingly down; but the caveat being year over year numbers are comparing against record high starts.

Would be interesting how they compare to 2008 or 2009

http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26

Building Permit values for Residential construction in Calgary area

$833,911,000 spent in Q1 2015
$218,629,000 spent in Q1 2009
$702,185,000 spent in Q1 2008

[troutman]

I assume this is very much related to net migration to Calgary. 17,786 in 2013. How many in 2014, and the first part of 2015?

http://www.calgaryeconomicdevelopmen...tion/migration

http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/91-209-.../14012-eng.htm

[Regular_John]

Secondary to the economy the city put a freeze on new suburban developments about a year or so ago. So anything that wasn't approved previous to a certain point is currently stalled.

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

I had heard last summer that they were going to drop substantially, but due to limited land availability. Not because of the economy at that point.

Either way it means less work, but the cause is different. The city has not kept up with serviced lots.

That's just an anti-Nenshi builders spin. The fact is that there is tons of land all over the place (Nolan, Auburn Bay, Mahogany, Marquies, etc, etc) but people are not buying houses.

The question is really easy to answer and it goes like this,

Right now, in the City of Calgary, would you buy a house? I can honestly say that every person I have asked that question has said no.

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

We're you working with Cardel?

If so, there's probably a pretty good reason why they aren't selling any homes.

No, not Cardel, but every builder is in the same boat.

The rumour was that in February/15 Jayman did not sell a single house in all of Calgary.

[polak]

Originally Posted by bysutter

Right now, in the City of Calgary, would you buy a house? I can honestly say that every person I have asked that question has said no.

Lots of people waiting for something to give.

Oil Prices bouncing back or prices dropping. Right now, Oil is in the tank with no realistic idea of when it will go up, people continue to get laid off but there's also very little movement in housing prices.

No one wants to be a sucker and buy right before the floor falls out and no one wants to sell cause they still think their 1300 sq ft starter home is worth over 400K.

[J pold]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

We're you working with Cardel?

If so, there's probably a pretty good reason why they aren't selling any homes.

Why do you say this?

[OMG!WTF!]

I have a friend who works for a small builder and he's at 5 sales this year compared to 50 at this time last year. Prices don't seem to be dropping though and the investors I work with are having some success with their flips.

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by polak

Lots of people waiting for something to give.

Oil Prices bouncing back or prices dropping. Right now, Oil is in the tank with no realistic idea of when it will go up, people continue to get laid off but there's also very little movement in housing prices.

No one wants to be a sucker and buy right before the floor falls out and no one wants to sell cause they still think their 1300 sq ft starter home is worth over 400K.

Exactly....even with a staff discount Builders staff are not buying so why would anyone else.

This is not going to go well over the next 24 months.

Could even be worse than the decade not to be spoken of in Calgary.

[bysutter]

Originally Posted by OMG!WTF!

I have a friend who works for a small builder and he's at 5 sales this year compared to 50 at this time last year. Prices don't seem to be dropping though and the investors I work with are having some success with their flips.

I think as far as prices are concerned....someone is gonna blink and then all others will have to follow to find the bottom.