Survivor 30 - Lost World; Pool and Discussion

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Komskies

I think Woo is a lock as well. He was a really popular cast member in his season.

God knows why... Woo was one of my least favorite contestents from that season. But yes, he's another one I'm voting for... if just to balance out how much older the cast is going to be relative to a usual season.

[mile]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

sadly I just went to check out the official cbs page to vote, and well, let's just say the 5 from season 30 are on there, including a few who were still in the game after tonight's episode. So i'm guessing they are gonzo balonzo in the next week or two.

Jeff Probst said if one of those two end up winning this season, they would be ineligible for next season and the spot would be given to the next highest vote getter. So there isn't much to be read into that.

If anything it might be a good thing, if one of the season 30 people won this season their votes would be canceled out and recency bias would be a less of a factor. Gives one of the old-school players more of a chance.

I can't vote for anyone from Redemption Island, One World, or South Pacific. Those were the dark days of Suvivor for me.

[d_phaneuf]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Maybe... could be a bait and switch. Throw the winner in there so people think they have no chance and make the win more dramatic.

Personally I think the following people are as close to locks as possible...

Spencer (well-liked, populer season, recency bias)
Stephan (well-liked, has a continuing presense with fans post-show via RHAP and People mag)
Shirin (well-liked, populer season, recency bias)
Kelly (well-liked, populer season, nostalgia factor)

... there are others who are close to locks but not quite on the level with these four.

Originally Posted by Komskies

I think Woo is a lock as well. He was a really popular cast member in his season.

I would guess Jeremy and Keith from last season, and Vytas, make it easily too

[Pizza]

Rodney...what an entitled baby...
"it's my birthday, and nobody gave me their spot for the reward"

maybe if you werent such a dumbass forgetting the sack of balls in the challenge, your team might've won it.

[ernie]

We there's no doubt Rodney is doing everything in his power to get to the end! He's useless at challenges so might as well use his uselessness with the social game to get someone to bring him along.

Of course he's actually too stupid to realize that is what he's doing. What an unbelievable whiner and baby.

What a thoroughly terrible group to have as the final 6. If Mike can manage to find another idol and/or win challenges he wins no matter what. But that also makes him the biggest target. Based on the vote they know that. They had to get that idol out of the game and work towards getting rid of him. If he gets voted out I think they should just call it a day and not give the money to anyone. Maybe we'll see something different moving forward but I'm not convinced these guys are actually playing the game.

[CaptainCrunch]

The only threats to win challenges now are Cass and Mike. Will was even left out of the reward challenge because nobody wanted him. Sierra isn't good, Rodney isn't good at challenges at all, and Dan nope.

The challenges as always switch towards puzzles and endurance.

Mike has to be in scramble mode now, he either has to find an idol or he has to split out Sierra and Dan and convince Dan to use his double vote.

Rodney is a moron, besides his fantastic meltdown his plan to convince Mike that he wanted out was 6th grade level.

He was laughable.

Tyler was the last real threat strategically to Cass and Mike.

[Komskies]

Mike's best bet at this time may be forming a "boys" alliance and focus on getting out Mama C and Sierra.

[CaptainCrunch]

Mama C is the biggest threat right now. Sierra is no threat and normally you'd take her to the jury. But Will, Idiot Boston Mcquire and Dan are jury poison.

Mike also has a ton of friends on the jury due to Shirin

[Oling_Roachinen]

Sierra's a bit of a wildcard for me. No doubt that Jenn, Hali, Joe and Shirin are pulling for Mike. They're as bitter as you can get, and would almost certainly never vote for Will, Rodney or Dan if given a choice but Sierra I think they sort of liked.

Unfortunately we didn't get to see any fallout of the "girls alliance" that she didn't follow through with...because we really don't get to see much of Sierra. But if Sierra was in the final, and Mike wasn't, I think she gets Joe, Hali, Jenn, Shirin and possibly Mike's vote for a win. I don't think she wins, not with the lack of edit she received.

So at this point I think either Mike wins out immunity and takes this. Or Carolyn takes out Mike, Dan (two votes), and Sierra and wins sitting next to Will and Rodney.

[Property Manager DB]

Mama C is a huge threat. Get her out before idol comes out

[WhiteTiger]

Wow, what an episode/tribal. Rodney with his continued whining and throwing (or not...) a challenge.

I had a feeling that as soon as Dan used his advantage, that would 'click' Carolyn and she'd play her idol. I'm kinda torn here...while I'm glad to see Dan gone, I know that he's exactly the sort of Survivor you want sitting beside you at the Final 3, as no one's going to vote for him.

[mile]

hahahahahah Dan goes and wastes his advantage in the process. Most satisfying boot of the season.

and LOL at Rodney to Mama C in the preview: "Why didn't you tell us you had an idol?"
Seriously? It's so satisfying to see him lose the reward again, even better that Mama C didn't give him the reward (as she shouldn't). If he wanted reward he should actually try winning.

I'm sure that one of Mike or Carolyn is winning this season, and the other will be back next season.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

That was a great ending. Glad it played out the way it did, definitely made it more interesting. That's all the idols gone now, isn't it? Have to think there will be a clue somewhere next episode and people will be scrambling like crazy.

And Rodney is an idiot and a baby. He keeps complaining that nobody gives him a reward........how about you actually win one and quit whining???

Obviously it looks like it's Mike and Mama C in an alliance now, wonder how the final will shake out. Has Sierra done anything? At all??

[GreenLantern]

It is basically the battle of the crap players at this point, Mike is a decent player but I feel like in any other season he would get eaten alive. Just a flower in the dirt.

I don't remember a season where there was so much celebration/smugness from the players as the votes were being read. You have to think Mama C is costing herself votes acting like a 10 year old who just got a X-Box for Christmas.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

I don't remember a season where there was so much celebration/smugness from the players as the votes were being read. You have to think Mama C is costing herself votes acting like a 10 year old who just got a X-Box for Christmas.

I don't blame her last night. She didn't want to have to play her idol and then did so when knew she had to, then saw almost every vote was for her. I'd be pretty pumped too.

[ernie]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

And Rodney is an idiot and a baby. He keeps complaining that nobody gives him a reward........how about you actually win one and quit whining???

Yep...and he's stamped his ticket to the final three. But with Dan gone there is no way he can win. He had to be up against Dan and the other idiot (Will) to win. That's gone but I don't think he's smart enough to realize he ought to be playing for who he wants to win the money at this point, because it isn't going to be him. And he has royally screwed it up with on the personal relationships part of things. He has made moves. Not all good but he's still around. he's been playing that aspect of the game. But his personal skills are deplorable and the continued birthday whining is icing on the cake. I think Probst likes to ask questions and probe at tribal to point out why certain people he doesn't want to see win shouldn't win. He did it by thoroughly exposing Will as scum, he's doing it with Rodney. Memo to future players...do not annoy Jeff.

If everything goes the it's been trending it will be a Mama C-Rodney-Will or Mike-Rodney-Will at the final tribal. If somehow one of the other three wins immunity both times is the only way I see both Mama C and Mike gone. That just doesn't seem likely. Those two are essentially fighting each other for immunity though Sierra had a strong showing this last one.

[Weitz]

It will be tough now because even if mama c or Mike wins immunity next episode the other will be going home, unless they find an idol.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

It is basically the battle of the crap players at this point, Mike is a decent player but I feel like in any other season he would get eaten alive. Just a flower in the dirt.

I don't remember a season where there was so much celebration/smugness from the players as the votes were being read. You have to think Mama C is costing herself votes acting like a 10 year old who just got a X-Box for Christmas.

I don't think she gets all that many votes from the Jury especially if Mike is there.

Dan might vote for her
Tyler might vote for her
Halie Jenn and Shirim won't vote for her
Joe will probably vote for Mike if he gets there.

out of the remaining cast, Mike is probably the best bet to win at least one immunity challenge.

If I look who's left, if Mike or Carolyn wins immunity this game is over because one will take the other out.

I mean look what you have left

Outside of Mike and Mamma C

Sierra - Has actually really flown below the radar incredibly well, she's stirred no pot, she's pissed off nobody to a major extent, she's probably been one of the best ghosts that the game has seen.

Rodney - I want him facing the jury because he's two seconds from a meltdown, and he'll try to assert that he was the mastermind and controlled the game, but I believe that the Jury will actually burst out laughing

Will - Lazy, no strategic game, can't win a challenge to save his life, and Shirim has had days, literally days to plot her revenge and poison the jury.

[mile]

Originally Posted by Weitz

It will be tough now because even if mama c or Mike wins immunity next episode the other will be going home, unless they find an idol.

I bet an idol comes back into play, it always does. Won't surprise me at all to see one win immunity and the other find an idol.

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Has Sierra done anything? At all??

She's been disappointing, there have been so many times this season I expected her to flip but she's voted with her alliance every time. She's probably now banking on going to the final 3 with Rodney and Will, which will be tough because you're hoping Mike or Mama C doesn't win one immunity which doesn't seem likely.

I don't have a problem with Mama C getting pumped over the vote last night, I doubt she lost anyone's vote.

If Mike somehow wins this has to be one biggest come from behind wins right? Getting to the end with no real allies since the final eight is almost impossible. From Carolyn's perspective she should still have Mike as her #1 target, makes no sense to take him to the end.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by mile

I don't have a problem with Mama C getting pumped over the vote last night, I doubt she lost anyone's vote.

If anything she might have gained some respect for sniffing out the vote and playing her idol at the perfect time.