What will Giordano's next contract be?

[Bourque's Twin]

Some good comparable CAP hits around the league.

Weber - $7.9 million (13 year contract)
Suter - $7.5 million (13 year contract)
Chara - $6.9 million (7 year contract)
Keith - $5.5 million (13 year contract)
Doughty - $7.0 million (8 year contract)
Letang - $7.25 million
Pietrangelo - $6.5 million
Karlsson - $6.5 million

He is 31 years old, and I think it's safe to sign him up until he's 37 (6 more years).

On a 6-year deal I think it's $7 million per year.
On a 5-year deal I think it's $7.25 million per year.

[Bourque's Twin]

Originally Posted by paulf7

Cap Hits
Phaneuf - 7 mil
Brian Campbell - 7.1 mil
Boychuk - 6 mil

Gio deserves more than these guys (actually MUCH more), but for the sake of signing other players, I am sure he won't ask for much more.
6 years @ 7.5 cap hit is fair. If it's 5 years, I think the hit should be around 8 mil. You may be over paying in the future, but if the cap goes up (which it should) it won't feel as bad. And you are rewarding a player for what he has done in the past at such a cheap rate.
You do not want Gio going into the season without a contract. If he does well (and he should) he'll then wait it out and teams like Florida who need to hit the cap floor will throw bags of money at him. Gio seems like a team first kind of guy, but I am sure he wants to be compensated (who wouldn't).

Those are bad examples. Keith is under $6 million and is arguably better than Giordano, so does Giordano deserve less than $6 million? Doughty is only $7 million as well.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by saillias

Pinder presented an interesting idea of a 3 year deal at 8 mil cap hit. I'd imagine Gio would balk at that though, it's good for us but his agent would say, try 4 more years.

Didn't hear Pinder say it, but was coming to post something similar.

Flames: lots of cap space now, will become a bigger problem in a few years.

Giordano: deserves a big payday and to be one of the highest paid defensemen in the league. However, he is going to be 33 when this contract kicks in.

Though it will never happen, I would propose 3 years in the $8M area. Pay him what he is worth, but spend the money now, instead of averaging the AAV out over years that will be tighter.

3 x 8 (or even 9) now, then plan on something like 3 x 5 after that.

In the end, it works out to 6 x 6.5 but it pays him now while they can afford it

(maybe the numbers have to be a bit bigger than that, but you get the idea)

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Some good comparable CAP hits around the league.

Weber - $7.9 million (13 year contract)
Suter - $7.5 million (13 year contract)
Chara - $6.9 million (7 year contract)
Keith - $5.5 million (13 year contract)
Doughty - $7.0 million (8 year contract)
Letang - $7.25 million
Pietrangelo - $6.5 million
Karlsson - $6.5 million

He is 31 years old, and I think it's safe to sign him up until he's 37 (6 more years).

On a 6-year deal I think it's $7 million per year.
On a 5-year deal I think it's $7.25 million per year.

He's 31 now, but any new contract he gets doesn't start until he's 33.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Didn't hear Pinder say it, but was coming to post something similar.

Flames: lots of cap space now, will become a bigger problem in a few years.

Giordano: deserves a big payday and to be one of the highest paid defensemen in the league. However, he is going to be 33 when this contract kicks in.

Though it will never happen, I would propose 3 years in the $8M area. Pay him what he is worth, but spend the money now, instead of averaging the AAV out over years that will be tighter.

3 x 8 (or even 9) now, then plan on something like 3 x 5 after that.

In the end, it works out to 6 x 6.5 but it pays him now while they can afford it

(maybe the numbers have to be a bit bigger than that, but you get the idea)

I doubt he takes 3 years. Too much risk.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by Weitz

I doubt he takes 3 years. Too much risk.

Agreed... he's our MVP and I think he will be treated as such (i.e. not low balled, no "well lets talk in Feb or March to see if you can repeat" et al)... I'd be very surprised if its less than 5 years, my guess is 5-6 years.

I can see maybe a few lower dollars in the year 5 or 6, but given BT's comps, I think he's a lot closer to $9M then $8M. If we can lock him up on the lower end, I'd be pretty happy, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he is above $9M.

[heep223]

The year that Gio's new contract kicks in, Monahan and Gaudreau are coming off their ELCs. If they have the same or better seasons next year, I can't even imagine what they're going to make. Other notables needing new contracts that year are Hudler and Russell.

I don't really have a point here just wanted to throw that in the discussion...to me that is where Treliving's legacy will really be made or broken more so than trades etc. If he can manage all of those contracts and still have enough room to re-sign and/or add the necessary depth pieces, we will likely be a real contender that year or the year after.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by paulf7

Cap Hits
Phaneuf - 7 mil
Brian Campbell - 7.1 mil
Boychuk - 6 mil

Gio deserves more than these guys (actually MUCH more), but for the sake of signing other players, I am sure he won't ask for much more.
6 years @ 7.5 cap hit is fair. If it's 5 years, I think the hit should be around 8 mil. You may be over paying in the future, but if the cap goes up (which it should) it won't feel as bad. And you are rewarding a player for what he has done in the past at such a cheap rate.
You do not want Gio going into the season without a contract. If he does well (and he should) he'll then wait it out and teams like Florida who need to hit the cap floor will throw bags of money at him. Gio seems like a team first kind of guy, but I am sure he wants to be compensated (who wouldn't).

I really hope Treliving doesn't pay him based on some of the poorer contracts around the league. For every terrible contract example there is an example of really good value as well. I feel strongly that each side will be fair and it should be a realtively easy contract to negotiate that works for both sides. I really it falls around 7. (6.75-7.25)

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bourque's Twin

Those are bad examples. Keith is under $6 million and is arguably better than Giordano, so does Giordano deserve less than $6 million? Doughty is only $7 million as well.

Those are cap hits, not what they make right now, or at the beginning of the contract. Keith also signed a 13 year deal , which ain't happening with Gio.

Also, I like Keith a lot, but I'm not so sure I don't take Gio over him.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by heep223

The year that Gio's new contract kicks in, Monahan and Gaudreau are coming off their ELCs. If they have the same or better seasons next year, I can't even imagine what they're going to make. Other notables needing new contracts that year are Hudler and Russell.

I don't really have a point here just wanted to throw that in the discussion...to me that is where Treliving's legacy will really be made or broken more so than trades etc. If he can manage all of those contracts and still have enough room to re-sign and/or add the necessary depth pieces, we will likely be a real contender that year or the year after.

Monahan and Gaudreau will make money. I don't think they will be making Oiler contracts, though it might be close.

If I'm Hudler, I know a good situation when I see it. Russell too. I don't think they have the same opportunities for success elsewhere.

[Bourque's Twin]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Those are cap hits, not what they make right now, or at the beginning of the contract. Keith also signed a 13 year deal , which ain't happening with Gio.

Also, I like Keith a lot, but I'm not so sure I don't take Gio over him.

I was using Keith as the opposite version of a bad example. I know Gio's cap hit will be higher, as it should.

I'm also not so sure I'd take Keith over Gio but the argument could definitely be made.

[Phanuthier]

Originally Posted by heep223

The year that Gio's new contract kicks in, Monahan and Gaudreau are coming off their ELCs. If they have the same or better seasons next year, I can't even imagine what they're going to make. Other notables needing new contracts that year are Hudler and Russell.

Precisely the reason why I don't think we should go stupid over UFA signings like Mike Green, Vermette, et al... they rarely give you good value. As we saw last year, $3M over 3 years gets you a 3rd line winger and bottom pairing defenseman, not top 4 D... I think any improvements and additions will have to come from within the system. Pay your own players (Gio, Monahan, Gaudreau) first.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by heep223

I'm pretty sure you're just trolling but you realize that he's the captain of the team right? And that as the captain, he led an extremely unlikely group to the second round of the playoffs. And that he's recognized around the league as being extremely hard working, dedicated, in shape, real pro, good guy off the ice, community minded. You know he was on the all star team. This guy has been a big part of shaping the culture of the group that just had pretty huge success and he wants to lead this team to a cup. This is the guy that Brian Burke, widely respected and been around the game for decades having won a Stanley Cup, named as one of the major reasons for this year's improbable success. This guy was pretty much a shoe-in for the Norris and led the NHL for points by a defenseman for most of the year until he was injured.

Or you could just ignore all of that and base your entire argument on your completely subjective and vague view that "next year could possibly be his last major productive season".

Plus he's a ninja so wtf

Why would you say that? Just because I would handle the owners money and salary cap situation a little tighter than some of you that would empty your wallets on a mid-30's player? I was on the Giordano bandwagon long before most of you so please don't insult me with posts like this as I fully realize his value to the team but at the same time it's a business and it's one of those contracts where some give and take would have to be made by both sides as the age of the player simply cannot be ignored when talking about term. I have no issues with a front loaded deal but I would have big issues paying a 36 year old player $7-8 million/season as that type of money should only ever be paid on players in the prime of their careers.

You only need to take a look at the Glencross discussions a 1-2 years back when we discussed his supposed team friendly contract and how he was in for a big raise when it expired. How would we feel today if the Flames prematurely gave him that big raise given he's kind of been exposed as being on the downturn? I don't think many would he happy if he was starting a new four year deal averaging $4 million/season. Things can change fast when a player is in his 30's.

[Brick]

If his contract is over 5 million, I hope that is only for 2 years or so with subsequent years under 5 million as he will then be over 35.

It may be worth trading him at some point while he still has value instead of waiting too long like they did with Iginla. (Unless he takes a sizeable home town discount after 35 to stay with the team. Otherwise, there should not be a no movement clause.)

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Brick

If his contract is over 5 million, I hope that is only for 2 years or so with subsequent years under 5 million as he will then be over 35.

It may be worth trading him at some point while he still has value instead of waiting too long like they did with Iginla. (Unless he takes a sizeable home town discount after 35 to stay with the team. Otherwise, there should not be a no movement clause.)

Brooks Orpik at 33 got 5.5 for 5 years. Brooks Orpik.

[delayedreflex]

9, 8, 7, 7, 6 - 5 year, $37 million contract, $7.4 million cap hit - I think this would be reasonable for both sides. I don't think it's going to be possible to get as low of a cap hit as many of those comparables due to the length of their contracts.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Brooks Orpik at 33 got 5.5 for 5 years. Brooks Orpik.

And we all laughed at it as the Caps will regret the deal in a few years. That said different situation as they are also a team in "win now" stage so they are willing to risk the future to win while AO is in his prime. Flames made great strides but if they ever do turn the corner to elite team and cup contender Giordano will be lucky to be a 2nd pairing defenseman on the depth chart.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Why would you say that? Just because I would handle the owners money and salary cap situation a little tighter than some of you that would empty your wallets on a mid-30's player? I was on the Giordano bandwagon long before most of you so please don't insult me with posts like this as I fully realize his value to the team but at the same time it's a business and it's one of those contracts where some give and take would have to be made by both sides as the age of the player simply cannot be ignored when talking about term. I have no issues with a front loaded deal but I would have big issues paying a 36 year old player $7-8 million/season as that type of money should only ever be paid on players in the prime of their careers.

Realistically, barring an unforeseen decline, Giordano will remain a serviceable #4 at worst through the length of a 5 or 6 year deal. Look at guys like Aucoin, Zidlicky, Markov and Gonchar, it is possible to play at high level into your late 30s, especially for a once-great, or even just good defenseman. He might not be putting up .75 PPG in five years, but there is no reason to think his game will fall apart to the point where that contract would be a problem. He's a great skater, he's economical, he's smart, he has amazing hockey sense... he's exactly the type of Dman that ages like fine wine. Injuries are the x factor here, however I feel he's been pretty unlucky and I have no reason to think he won't play 75+ next year. It's not like he's nursing some chronically injured knee that been surgically repaired three times.

On a 6 year $7.25m contract, the biggest risk is probably overpaying him by 3m per year relative to cap hit, for the last couple years of his deal. That's assuming he goes from Norris favorite to just an average #4 like a Jason Garrison, from ages 37-39. I personally have no problem with this level of risk.

I think Treliving is willing to pay a premium and fair deal for Giordano, even at the expense of 4% of some future season's salary cap, in order to retain his services. I fully trust in his abilities to find cap savings elsewhere to help keep our best player and captain, even if he is only performing as a decent #4 guy five years from now. There will always be a Mason Raymond or a Deryk Engelland around, it's inevitable. You move out 2021's version of those guys before even considering Giordano.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

And we all laughed at it as the Caps will regret the deal in a few years. That said different situation as they are also a team in "win now" stage so they are willing to risk the future to win while AO is in his prime. Flames made great strides but if they ever do turn the corner to elite team and cup contender Giordano will be lucky to be a 2nd pairing defenseman on the depth chart.

That's fine that people don't like that contract, I don't either. But that's reality. He would get more than Orpik on the open market. The GM doesn't get to tell the player what he's going to get. There's another outcome other than Gio just swallowing what Treliving gives him. If you think that late contract would hurt the club too much, then bye bye Gio. That's a pill we're gonna have to swallow

[-TC-]

it will be in the $7M range...probably a retirement contract, so 5 years ish