Monthly Market Update

[stampsx2]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

I am referring to your comment on vacancy levels and how it might be one of the least accurate stats available.

Kavvy - Inventory was down from the previous month ... it was spiking at a very fast rate and really pulled back putting us in a balanced market.

Don't bother. The doomsdayers all believe the entire housing market will crash even though energy is only 30% of the alberta economy. People are leaving the province like crazy and house prices are going down 30%. In a bit you should be able to get a $500,000 house for $350,000 or less. Who knows where this will end. I would wait even longer and maybe get a house for free.

[lorenavedon]

I'm still looking at places. And let me tell you. Good location, non dilapidated building and fair price? Gone in an instant. Some housing market. The good stuff goes just as fast as it ever did. A bunch of listings from people trying to get %20 more for their homes than what they paid for them last year is not an indication of a poor housing market. Those factors are what are keeping inventory levels high and sales low. Inventory levels and sales of good/fair priced homes is just as scarce as ever.

[darklord700]

Been to a few downtown condo pre-sales recently and the prices had not dropped, about $550-$650 per foot depending on location and finishing.

[Travis Munroe]

^ Based on the people I have spoke to who are involved in the new developments, they are in no rush and would rather wait out the storm than start discounting. They obviously don't see the economy staying down for long.

[Ace]

It's a 'good' time for developers in that the city was way behind on lot inventory (single family).

http://calgaryherald.com/business/re...level-in-years

They don't have to push sales because of a glut.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Don't bother. The doomsdayers all believe the entire housing market will crash even though energy is only 30% of the alberta economy. People are leaving the province like crazy and house prices are going down 30%. In a bit you should be able to get a $500,000 house for $350,000 or less. Who knows where this will end. I would wait even longer and maybe get a house for free.

Please bother.

Having a debate is a good thing.

Saying the other side is wrong, and I am right, so I don't need to discuss it, adds nothing to the discussion. Don't even post if you are simply going to only bring this to the table.

I have been wrong in this discussion, and if you go back to my posts - admitted when I was wrong. I take offense to a post which implies that just because I think right now is the worst day to buy a house in Calgary in the last 6-7 years, means I can't listen to another point of view

[darklord700]

I have been looking to upgrade so I've been paying attention to the market in the last 6 months. Prices have not come down by any meaningful margin, maybe 5% or so. But it does take longer to sell. So I decided to put my upgrade plan on hold because I'm not saving much if any to upgrade but my house will definately be more difficult to sell in this market.

[Travis Munroe]

darklord, you are correct in the housing prices barely moving.
Seeing new condo developments being launched downtown is also a sign of optimism.

Out of curiosity.... for the doom and gloom 30/40% correction in housing price crowd (and this isn't sarcasm by any means), how long do you anticipate before things really start to fall off? Did you expect more of a decline at this point? Are you predicting less of a correction? Is it something you see being a year away?

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Out of curiosity.... for the doom and gloom 30/40% correction in housing price crowd (and this isn't sarcasm by any means), how long do you anticipate before things really start to fall off? Did you expect more of a decline at this point? Are you predicting less of a correction? Is it something you see being a year away?

Careful.

Some of us on that side of the fence don't believe in a 30/40% correction. In fact, my position is I do not know what will happen, but buying today is a mistake, because the odds are the market will go down or remain constant. Why buy in a market that has the highest chance of a collapse in recent years. This doesn't mean I think it will go down, this means I think a decrease in prices is more likely today then it has been in a long time.

As for my timeline, end of summer, then I will reevaluate. However, I am actively looking at places with a Realtor who understands my timelines (and seems to quietly disagree) and if I fall in love with a place, then all bets are off.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

Careful.

Some of us on that side of the fence don't believe in a 30/40% correction. In fact, my position is I do not know what will happen, but buying today is a mistake, because the odds are the market will go down or remain constant. Why buy in a market that has the highest chance of a collapse in recent years. This doesn't mean I think it will go down, this means I think a decrease in prices is more likely today then it has been in a long time.

As for my timeline, end of summer, then I will reevaluate. However, I am actively looking at places with a Realtor who understands my timelines (and seems to quietly disagree) and if I fall in love with a place, then all bets are off.

This. I'm not really expecting anything I'm just waiting for something to give.

Prices to drop or Oil to recover.

[ThePrince]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I have been looking to upgrade so I've been paying attention to the market in the last 6 months. Prices have not come down by any meaningful margin, maybe 5% or so. But it does take longer to sell. So I decided to put my upgrade plan on hold because I'm not saving much if any to upgrade but my house will definately be more difficult to sell in this market.

Am I the only one that thinks a 5% reduction in the past 6 months is pretty significant?

[lorenavedon]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Am I the only one that thinks a 5% reduction in the past 6 months is pretty significant?

not when they were up %5 the 6 months prior.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by ThePrince

Am I the only one that thinks a 5% reduction in the past 6 months is pretty significant?

The way I see it is price has only stopped rising but not decreasing in the last 6 months.

[Travis Munroe]

another update folks!

[calgarygeologist]

Thus far the market has managed to avert a crash and may even be building momentum right now.

[TSXCman]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Thus far the market has managed to avert a crash and may even be building momentum right now.

Only issue here is that it isn't neighborhood/area dependent. The trends that are occurring on he outskirts of town (new SE or NW communities) don't seem to be the same as inner city. Our city is pretty large to be analyzing as a whole to determine how things may be going in an area of your interest.

Personally, I've given up on my realtor's advice, I find it often contradicts trends that I determine from listed and sold prices in neighborhoods specific to my interest.

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by TSXCman

Only issue here is that it isn't neighborhood/area dependent. The trends that are occurring on he outskirts of town (new SE or NW communities) don't seem to be the same as inner city. Our city is pretty large to be analyzing as a whole to determine how things may be going in an area of your interest.

Personally, I've given up on my realtor's advice, I find it often contradicts trends that I determine from listed and sold prices in neighborhoods specific to my interest.

Are you seeing the outskirts experiencing larger drops than inner city or something?

Either way, I would agree with you with regards to regional trends, but these reports are what they are - an overall view of the market.

[polak]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Thus far the market has managed to avert a crash and may even be building momentum right now.

I wouldn't say it building momentum but it's holding strong. Good for everyone if they stabilize a bit for a few years. I still think you'll see problems in a few months (Fall) once people who have been laid off start feeling the pinch. Unless Oil recovers of course.

That being said, the NDP just won an election so shouldn't everyone be moving to Saskatoon by now?

[TSXCman]

Originally Posted by Regorium

Are you seeing the outskirts experiencing larger drops than inner city or something?
No, I have not looked at the outskirts too often, just emphasizing the regional aspect. The overall market could remain healthy/even/positive, but you could still find a property for 20-50K below the asking price last year in some areas.

Either way, I would agree with you with regards to regional trends, but these reports are what they are - an overall view of the market.

See bolded

[Peanut]

I'd be interested to see the stats for condos only. My impression (and perhaps this is incorrect) is that for re-sale houses the market is fairly stable, but re-sale condos are taking a beating. I'm not really paying attention to new build prices for either.

Lots of O&G folks offloading rental properties?