Mike Reilly will go UFA. UPD: narrows list to 2 or 3 teams

[getbak]

Originally Posted by codynw

Okay, but a CHL player can sign immediately if they want to. An NCAA player can't until after they finish (or leave) school. Plus, a CHL player goes back into the draft instead of becoming an UFA.

You're acting like the last time teams are allowed to talk to their college draft picks is when they hand them the hat and jersey on draft day (which is the only thing the NCAA allows the player to keep from the NHL team as long as the player remains NCAA eligible). College players participate in prospects camps. College players can be offered contracts at any time, and they're free to sign them (as we saw with Jooris). The only condition is that once they sign an NHL contract, they lose NCAA eligibility.

NHL teams can discuss the player's options with the player, his family, and his "advisor". They can tell the player where he fits in the team's plans and they can offer a contract (in 2013, Feaster basically told Gaudreau that there was an NHL contract waiting whenever he wanted to sign it), or they can tell the player they think he needs another year in college (which is apparently what Burke told Gillies last year). Some teams have even convinced players to drop out of college and move to junior to continue their careers.


On one hand, teams take a risk in drafting a college player because they can't get him signed to a contract while he's still playing in college, which opens the door for the player to make this move. On the other hand, the NCAA player also assumes the risk of not progressing as expected (or getting injured) and not being offered a contract when he graduates (which happens a lot more than players choosing to not sign with the team that drafted them).

[EldrickOnIce]

Is it only first round picks not signing where compensatory picks are awarded?
If so, this is what could be changed, based on the value of the ELC that player signs.
I suppose that creates a draft nightmare.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce

Is it only first round picks not signing where compensatory picks are awarded?

I believe that is correct.

If so, this is what could be changed, based on the value of the ELC that player signs.
I suppose that creates a draft nightmare.

Yeah, that would, kind of.

You don't notice it so much in baseball, because the baseball draft is about a zillion rounds already, picks cannot be traded, and even the highest draft picks have a relatively low probability of panning out. So the MLB draft just doesn't get the same kind of attention.

[sureLoss]

^ don't MLB teams have to sign their draft picks in a matter of months and not years like the NHL?

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

^ don't MLB teams have to sign their draft picks in a matter of months and not years like the NHL?

Yep. And potentially the player can go back in the draft next year (depending on where they play).

Players don't ever become free agents... but teams wanting to sign a player and he refusing for money reasons happens a lot more often in baseball than hockey.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

^ don't MLB teams have to sign their draft picks in a matter of months and not years like the NHL?

They do. On the other hand, a player who does not sign with the team that drafted him automatically re-enters the draft. If I understand the MLB rules correctly, a player doesn't normally become a free agent unless he passes through a draft and nobody picks him. A player can theoretically be drafted by several different teams in several successive years before he signs. But then, when the draft lasts 40 rounds, merely being picked isn't such a big deal.

This, I am assured, is why MLB focuses heavily on ‘signability picks’: they aren't trying to draft the best players, but rather, the best players who are willing to sign a contract right there and then. A very different mindset from the other major-league sports.

[Derek Sutton]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

They do. On the other hand, a player who does not sign with the team that drafted him automatically re-enters the draft. If I understand the MLB rules correctly, a player doesn't normally become a free agent unless he passes through a draft and nobody picks him. A player can theoretically be drafted by several different teams in several successive years before he signs. But then, when the draft lasts 40 rounds, merely being picked isn't such a big deal.

This, I am assured, is why MLB focuses heavily on ‘signability picks’: they aren't trying to draft the best players, but rather, the best players who are willing to sign a contract right there and then. A very different mindset from the other major-league sports.

Yah this was addressed in "Moneyball" (the book) the budget teams (KC, OAK etc...) do not have the money to sign the top players coming out of the draft, so they draft players they know that they can afford and will sign with them, rahter then picking the best player available.

This also exists in the CHL, where top players will say they will not report so they don't get drafted by certain teams, that is how Max Domi ended up falling to London, and a primary reason Prince George never seems to improve.

[FlamesAddiction]

I don't really like to see this happen to any team. Even though it seems to only happen in rare circumstances, I get nervous any time we have college prospects that we need to sign.

I would prefer to see them re-enter the draft or have unrestricted free agency delayed. Obviously the NHLPA would have something to say about that though.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Derek Sutton

Yah this was addressed in "Moneyball" (the book) the budget teams (KC, OAK etc...) do not have the money to sign the top players coming out of the draft, so they draft players they know that they can afford and will sign with them, rahter then picking the best player available.

True. (And wasn't that a terrific book?)

But even the big-money teams, the Yankees and Red Sox and so forth, worry about signability. In particular, they don't want to be drafting high-school kids who might change their minds and go to college (and therefore back into the draft).

Anyway, the fact that MLB gives out tons of compensatory picks doesn't mean that the NHL could make things work the same way. A 40-round draft with no trading of picks is not the same as a 7-round draft with trading allowed. MLB compensatory picks have such low individual value that they can afford to hand them out like candy.

[sureLoss]

Minnesota lost last night. Reilly watch has begun.

http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/...tes-03-28.html

The defenseman’s season at the University of Minnesota ended Friday night with a 4-1 loss to Minnesota-Duluth in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Reilly, a junior, is not expected to return to Minnesota, meaning he is free to sign with the Blue Jackets, who drafted him in the third round (No.98 overall) in the 2011 draft.

But it’s unclear if Reilly will sign with the Jackets. Once he leaves school, the Blue Jackets will have 30 days to sign him — or until June1, whichever occurs first — or Reilly can become an unrestricted free agent.

Reilly grew up in the Minneapolis area, and his father is a minority owner of the Minnesota Wild. There has been speculation that Reilly will sign with the Wild once he’s a free agent.

But the Blue Jackets can offer Reilly a few benefits beyond any other team, even though the two-year, entry-level deal he would sign is largely framed by the NHL’s collective-bargaining agreement. The Jackets could sign him immediately and promise him NHL playing time before the end of this season — as early as next week if he signs immediately. Further, if Reilly signs quickly and plays this season, he would burn the first of his two-year contract, meaning the Blue Jackets could sign him to an extension as soon as July 1.

[ricardodw]

The NHL need to change the draft.

Guys being drafted should all be signed within a year of being drafted or go into the next years draft.... no compensation.



The Monahan's and Bennett's would be drafted and signed as 18 year olds and the Baertschi's, Jankowski's would be put off a year or 2.

The first round of the NHL draft would be filled with 19 and 20 year olds and they would be expected to be in the NHL the year after they were drafted.

Basically the NFL model ... A team does not have to take a gamble on an 18 year old guessing on how good they will be in 3-4 years.

Almost all the players at the WJC would be eligible for the upcoming draft .... unless they were on loan from their pro team.

There would not be any 18 year olds taken outside of the 1st round.

[JiriHrdina]

Why? What are you trying to solve?

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

Why? What are you trying to solve?

The crap-shoot of the rebuild. At most only the top 4-6 player in the 18 year old draft are 90% bets going to be able to help a team at the NHL level.

This year if the Flames do not make the playoffs they have about a 50% chance of picking a NHL player that would be ready in 3 years. That is not good enough for a rebuild

Take the 2008 draft.... enough time that there should be no late developers:

The top 10 were good enough to be solid NHLers in time. 9 out the next 20 18 year olds drafted will never make it to 100 nhl games.

In 1978 the last year of the 20 year old draft

Picks 11-30

2 guys out of 20 played less than 190 NHL games .... the average for these player was a 648 NHL game career

18 out of the 20 played 40 games in the NHL the season that they were drafted. The Islanders had to wait 2 years for #25 overall Tomas Jonsson to come over from Sweden to start his 556 game NHL career.

All of the top 10 picks were Star Quality NHLers with #10 pick Tom McCarthy jumping straight from Oshawa to Minnesota and scoring 16 goals in his NHL rookie season. He topped out at 39 goals in his best season and had the shortest NHL career of the top 10 at 460 games. He was the worst of the top 10 picks by a considerable margin.

Compare that with Baertschi being picked 13th in 2011.


Were the scouts that much better?

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The crap-shoot of the rebuild. At most only the top 4-6 player in the 18 year old draft are 90% bets going to be able to help a team at the NHL level.

This year if the Flames do not make the playoffs they have about a 50% chance of picking a NHL player.

Take the 2008 draft.... enough time that there should be no late developers:

The top 10 were good enough to be solid NHLers in time. 9 out the next 20 18 year olds drafted will never make it to 100 nhl games.

In 1978 the last year of the 20 year old draft

Picks 11-30

2 guys out of 20 played less than 190 NHL games .... the average for these player was a 648 NHL game career

18 out of the 20 played 40 games in the NHL the season that they were drafted. The Islanders had to wait 2 years for #25 overall Tomas Jonsson to come over from Sweden to start his 556 game NHL career.

All of the top 10 picks were Star Quality NHLers with #10 pick Tom McCarthy jumping straight from Oshawa to Minnesota and scoring 16 goals in his NHL rookie season. He topped out at 39 goals in his best season and had the shortest NHL career of the top 10 at 460 games. He was the worst of the top 10 picks by a considerable margin.

Compare that with Baertschi being picked 13th in 2011.


Were the scouts that much better?

PS With my 1 year to go pro plan Johnny Gaudreau would likely have been in the draft last year. Would the Flames pick him 4th overall if he was available or would they pick Bennett?

[Dagger]

It sounds more like you just want the minimum draft-eligible age to be raised. I don't necessarily agree with you, but why try and revamp the whole system to accommodate the "4-6" who are good bets to be NHL players in your mind?

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Dagger

It sounds more like you just want the minimum draft-eligible age to be raised. I don't necessarily agree with you, but why try and revamp the whole system to accommodate the "4-6" who are good bets to be NHL players in your mind?

First of all the whole system is broken. It doesn't function as a fair distribution of talent to maintain a competitive balance, giving teams that miss the playoffs a better player for the next season.

It already has been revamped to accomodate the 4 to 6.... well actually 1 Ekblad or maybe 2 Draistl this last draft that is ready to play as an 18 year olds and 7 from 2013.

The minimum age can't be raised . These 18 years old have the right to make a living. Accommodating them messed up the distribution of the other 97 % of the players.

They could have a player declare he is open to being drafted. Tavares wanted to start making money as a 16 year old if I recall correctly. A good lawyer or renegade owner is liable to challenge and change this. Imagine the mess if the draft age got lowered to 16 for the McDavid/Crosby/Tavares guys who actually could play in the NHL as prior to being an 18 year old.

[sureLoss]

Aaron Portzline @Aportzline
#NHL agent Pat Brisson, serving as family advisor for Mike Reilly, says "nothing to report." This is most likely not good news for #CBJ.

[sureLoss]

And Reilly confirms he will be going pro, but will not divulge which organization he will play for. In other words, he is extremely likely to go to free agency.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/go...299128411.html

Mike Reilly will play professional hockey next season he told the Star Tribune on Wednesday. The Gophers’ All-America junior defenseman will forego his senior season and sign a professional contract soon, he said, but is still unsure what organization he’ll be playing for.

“[I] will not be returning [next season] and will know more after the tournament,” Reilly said. “I don’t want to talk too much about my situation. But I am going to worlds the 25th [of April] and I’m very excited.”

After this Saturday, Columbus will no longer be able to offer him the option to burn a year of his contract and will be on equal footing with all other NHL teams.

Going to the World Championships helps showcase him for the other teams like it did for Hayes last year.

[Hemi-Cuda]

This seems to be happening with more regularity. I wonder if teams will be more hesitant to draft college kids much like they do with Russian prospects

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

And Reilly confirms he will be going pro, but will not divulge which organization he will play for. In other words, he is extremely likely to go to free agency.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/go...299128411.html



After this Saturday, Columbus will no longer be able to offer him the option to burn a year of his contract and will be on equal footing with all other NHL teams.

Going to the World Championships helps showcase him for the other teams like it did for Hayes last year.

He's taking his talents to South Beach