The Playoff Chase | CGY, WPG, LA

[wretched34]

I looked into underlying stats....
What a waste of time....
So Corsi is if I understand correctly, the number of shots on net + missed net + blocked, and Fenwick is Shots + Missed shots....
And apparently, a team with high corsi and fenwick are what advanced stats guru's deem the better teams??
And PDO is a teams Shooting % + their Save %, and if you're not deemed a good team by the first two stats, having a PDO above 100 means you're lucky and it's unsustainable, and if it's below 100, it's bad luck, but will surely fix itself if you just keep shooting wide?

Which is why advanced stats geniuses deem the Flames success unsustainable, because their corsi and fenwick are low, but PDO is high?
So..... if you're shooters score more often, and your goalies save more often, but you don't take lots of wreckless shots, you're team is destined to fail?

I've confused myself.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by wretched34

I looked into underlying stats....
What a waste of time....
So Corsi is if I understand correctly, the number of shots on net + missed net + blocked, and Fenwick is Shots + Missed shots....
And apparently, a team with high corsi and fenwick are what advanced stats guru's deem the better teams??
And PDO is a teams Shooting % + their Save %, and if you're not deemed a good team by the first two stats, having a PDO above 100 means you're lucky and it's unsustainable, and if it's below 100, it's bad luck, but will surely fix itself if you just keep shooting wide?

Which is why advanced stats geniuses deem the Flames success unsustainable, because their corsi and fenwick are low, but PDO is high?
So..... if you're shooters score more often, and your goalies save more often, but you don't take lots of wreckless shots, you're team is destined to fail?

I've confused myself.

The bolded really made me laugh

[Flames89]

It's too bad that the Saturday game vs the Jets is at 3pm EST (1pm MST). If it all comes down to that game, it will make for a stressful afternoon.

[debil]

It's all about LA game and we have to win in regulation. If we lose this, peg & LA is in. Sure i assume they win all their other two games but they will. LA is just LA and Darryl can make his team play its best when it matters. Jets are playing extremely well lately and i don't see them losing.

[Igster]

Originally Posted by debil

It's all about LA game and we have to win in regulation. If we lose this, peg & LA is in. Sure i assume they win all their other two games but they will. LA is just LA and Darryl can make his team play its best when it matters. Jets are playing extremely well lately and i don't see them losing.

Then the Kings should have beat the Canucks yesterday. Sorry, comments like this just seem silly. Games are games. You never know what will happen.

[manwiches]

My dream. LA loses tonight, cgy wins tonight. LA and cgy game goes to OT with a 5-5 score, Johnny hockey with the trick to tie in last minute, money hands with 2 going to Ot. With last minute of Ot and river hockey, where hiller channels his inner kipper, money leads a 2 on 1 and scores a ridonkulous goal to hurl the flames to the playoffs. Flames proceed to wipe their asses with Winnipeg, and then roll into playoffs against van. We win in 6. We play Anaheim next, which got put through the ringer by Minn. We win in 6. Chicago next, and Patrick Kane has a huge setback and can't play. We win in 7. We play the finals against Tampa bay in an epic rematch of 2004. Gio makes an unreal comeback, scores 10 points in 7 games, we win in 7, with money scoring game winner in every series. Johnny hockey and money are tied in voting for conne smythe, edged to money and we hoist the cup. /bigdream

Insert appropriate team wherever they fall in the bracket. Outcome remains the same.

[Vinny01]

We win tonight and in regulation Thursday then the Flames are in!

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Flames89

It's too bad that the Saturday game vs the Jets is at 3pm EST (1pm MST). If it all comes down to that game, it will make for a stressful afternoon.

Day drinking helps manage stress

[Buster]

Originally Posted by wretched34

I looked into underlying stats....
What a waste of time....
So Corsi is if I understand correctly, the number of shots on net + missed net + blocked, and Fenwick is Shots + Missed shots....
And apparently, a team with high corsi and fenwick are what advanced stats guru's deem the better teams??
And PDO is a teams Shooting % + their Save %, and if you're not deemed a good team by the first two stats, having a PDO above 100 means you're lucky and it's unsustainable, and if it's below 100, it's bad luck, but will surely fix itself if you just keep shooting wide?

Which is why advanced stats geniuses deem the Flames success unsustainable, because their corsi and fenwick are low, but PDO is high?
So..... if you're shooters score more often, and your goalies save more often, but you don't take lots of wreckless shots, you're team is destined to fail?

I've confused myself.

The problem is that Corsi doesn't control for shot quality.

The underlying assumption to the stat is that all shots are equally weighted (unless I don't understand it).

So it is always at risk of a "mysterious outlier" because that assumption is obviously flawed.

If Corsi just had some way to control for shot quality. Oh, say...like how many goals are scored.