I'm actually pretty worried about this game and I hope the Flames take it very seriously. Easy to look past this one and Edmonton has had a decent power play and month.
Calgary needs to come ready to play, no passengers or floating bs.
Two of the three guys from the first scene of Super Troopers are now rookies on the Flames. I immediately got the connection between Snozzberries Kid and Gaudreau but now I'm freaking out, man.
I gotta get off the internet for a while. This is just mind shattering.
If Gaudreau and Bennett ever play on a line together at some point in their careers, let us all agree that the name of the line must reflect the movie Super Troopers in one way or another.
And again, running the risk of being totally annoying: Has anyone verified that the numbers they give, whether weighted or not, are reliable?
What do you mean by reliable?
The odds are accurate for what they are: a summation of possible outcomes. Approximately 80% of the possible outcomes for the games result in the Flames making the playoffs.
But whether they actually do or not is up to them actually winning games
I gotta get off the internet for a while. This is just mind shattering.
If Gaudreau and Bennett ever play on a line together at some point in their careers, let us all agree that the name of the line must reflect the movie Super Troopers in one way or another.
The "Headin' for Canada for some french fries and gravy" line
Calgarys top line absolutely dominates. Edmonton won't be able to contain them. Coming off of a 8-2 loss to LA, Edmonton is just going to roll over and die, like they have done all year.
And my question being: If a team goes from 80% to 60% in one game, how accurate was that 80%?
Pretty accurate.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike F
And again, running the risk of being totally annoying: Has anyone verified that the numbers they give, whether weighted or not, are reliable?
You seem hung up on this, so I'm surprised you haven't gone back this season to see the percentages after a certain number of games, or to past seasons, to check this out. All of the details are on the site.
But since you haven't, here are the Western Conference teams numbered 1-14 in the current standings (straight conference standings, not considering divisions or wild cards), followed by their current percentages of making the playoffs under the 50/50 sim, and then followed by those same percentages at roughly the midway point (week 14) of the 14-15 season. I decided to also include the weighted percentages, just for the heck of it.
Code:
Team Points Chance Midway Chance Weighted Chance Midway Weighted Chance
Y - ANAHEIM 107 In 97.97 In 97.77
X - NASHVILLE 103 In 99.38 In 99.99
X - ST. LOUIS 103 In 94.24 In 99.60
X - CHICAGO 102 In 95.79 In 99.90
MINNESOTA 95 99.80 16.88 99.70 5.50
VANCOUVER 95 99.20 75.98 99.60 84.21
CALGARY 91 69.60 48.23 78.00 61.46
LOS ANGELES 90 67.00 67.55 71.10 80.22
WINNIPEG 90 60.10 70.39 47.20 77.29
SAN JOSE 87 4.20 68.30 4.40 68.58
DALLAS 84 0.00 38.78 0.00 17.89
COLORADO 84 0.00 22.35 0.00 7.54
EDMONTON 59 Out 0.05 Out 0.00
ARIZONA 54 Out 4.11 Out 0.04
So what did the simulations not predict?
Minnesota's insane run with Dubnyk
San Jose's second half collapse
Calgary's bounce back from the 8 game losing streak
So, in summary:
Pretty accurate.
Last edited by Finger Cookin; 04-04-2015 at 02:37 PM.
I can see this going one of two ways, you've got a really young and inexperienced defence throwing themselves in front of everything and if they get a lead they'll make things difficult.
If they fall behind though, they'll likely crumble and this will get ugly.
__________________ The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!
This Post Has Been Distilled for the Eradication of Seemingly Incurable Sadness.
The World Ends when you're dead. Until then, you've got more punishment in store. - Flames Fans
If you thought this season would have a happy ending, you haven't been paying attention.
Can someone who knows more about this years draft class go through and find a match for the driver in that clip. I can guarantee you, with absolute certainty, that is who we will be picking round 1.
__________________
"By Grabthar's hammer ... what a savings."
