[GDT] Flames @ Oilers, 8 pm, CBC

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Mike F

The only thing that "bothers" me is not knowing whether the % they give is reliable or not. People have started throwing their odds around a lot, and I simply want to know how much that number can actually be relied on.

The odds are actually MORE reliable now.

Early in the season, there are too many possible scenarios for the monte carlo to run them all. What it does is run a bunch (millions) and those are 'representative' of the complete set.

Now however, there are only so many scenarios because there are only so many games. So the odds actually state exactly how many of the possible outcomes result in the Flames making the playoffs.

If it says 80%, then literally in 80% of all the possible ways the games can play out, the Flames make the playoffs.

[colbym72]

Pat Steinberg @Fan960Steinberg
Hartley not commenting on any lineup changes other than Potter in for Diaz. No word on if Bennett is in or out. #Flames




If he wasnt gonna play, wouldnt he just say so?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by fatso

Holy dinah! You might be doing it wrong my man!

bahaha....OMG...what a terrible autocorrect. Didn't even notice it until now. Cheers!

[FireItUp]

Fixed

[Robo]

doean't hartley just spring it on people that they are playing in their first game so they don't sit and think too much about it?

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by colbym72

Pat Steinberg @Fan960Steinberg
Hartley not commenting on any lineup changes other than Potter in for Diaz. No word on if Bennett is in or out. #Flames




If he wasnt gonna play, wouldnt he just say so?

My thoughts as well, but I am not getting my hopes up.

[Mike F]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The odds are actually MORE reliable now.

Early in the season, there are too many possible scenarios for the monte carlo to run them all. What it does is run a bunch (millions) and those are 'representative' of the complete set.

Now however, there are only so many scenarios because there are only so many games. So the odds actually state exactly how many of the possible outcomes result in the Flames making the playoffs.

If it says 80%, then literally in 80% of all the possible ways the games can play out, the Flames make the playoffs.

Thanks for your response (and those above), but all this does is now clarify my question to: is a monte carlo analysis reliable for predicting sports outcomes, where the outcome of a given event (i.e. one game between two teams) is not random, but influenced by things like relative team strength, home ice advantage, recent schedule, etc.

[sureLoss]

Derek Wills @Fan960Wills
Very little interest in #Flames Sam Bennett LOL. #CGYvsEDM

[Locke]

Hartley is just trolling us all.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by speeds

https://twitter.com/EdmontonOilers/s...03243477807104

"Coach Nelson says #Oilers D partners yet to be determined, but the six will be Marincin, Davidson, Musil, Aulie, Schultz & Klefbom."

Seriously, that is beyond description.

Now I see why my buddy was saying that Klefbom has been their best defenseman - he is the only actual NHL-caliber Dman in the group!

Forget Bennett - put me in, coach!

[colbym72]

Originally Posted by Mike F

Thanks for your response (and those above), but all this does is now clarify my question to: is a monte carlo analysis reliable for predicting sports outcomes, where the outcome of a given event (i.e. one game between two teams) is not random, but influenced by things like relative team strength, home ice advantage, recent schedule, etc.

The way I understand it is its not really predicting the outcomes, it is giving the chances of making the playoffs based on the amount of possible outcomes I believe. So since there isnt very many possible outcomes anymore with four remaining games, it will swing a lot

[getbak]

Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec

Sam Bennett a game time decision - Hartley.

"Game Time Decision" = Yeah, he's playing tonight.

Go Sam!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Mike F

Thanks for your response (and those above), but all this does is now clarify my question to: is a monte carlo analysis reliable for predicting sports outcomes, where the outcome of a given event (i.e. one game between two teams) is not random, but influenced by things like relative team strength, home ice advantage, recent schedule, etc.

Go to the site - it explains all that.

It does it two ways (your choice): you can make it so every game is random (coin flip); or you can run it weighted (factoring in some of the things you listed).

Personally, I like looking at both - gives me more information.

[ForeverFlameFan]

It's one thing for Bennett not playing, but I am pretty disappointed that Wotherspoon is not getting any playing time. In his 14 games played last year, he was more consistent than Smid when playing on the bottom pairing. If it weren't for his injury last year, I guarantee he would have played the remainder of the 13/14 season.

He's a better option than Potter. Being our most consistent AHL defenseman, he shouldne rewarded with playing time too.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Seriously, that is beyond description.

Now I see why my buddy was saying that Klefbom has been their best defenseman - he is the only actual NHL-caliber Dman in the group!

Forget Bennett - put me in, coach!

And even then, isnt it his first season and hes nursing a healthy -21?

[Reggie Dunlop]

Predicting some jerseys being thrown on the ice tonight, perhaps a few from the Oilers players' bench.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Locke

And even then, isnt it his first season and hes nursing a healthy -21?

Yes absolutely - the bar isn't very high here.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Robo

my wifes water broke this morning hopefully this baby will be a flames good luck charm

I wonder how many 10 year old Jaromes are running around Calgary right now?

We might have a generation boom of Johnnys, Seans, & Sams coming up.

[dissentowner]

Why would Potter be in over Spoon? I don't see any upside to Potter.

[canflip_101]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Predicting some jerseys being thrown on the ice tonight, perhaps a few from the Oilers players' bench.

and hopefully sam benzo beats up rnh